Black Progress Through Business Improvement: Two Articles by Joseph R. Houchins, 1900-1989

In the spirit of further expanding the heretofore unsung contributions of African American economists, we present two unpublished works from the 1930s of Joseph Roosevelt Houchins. They focus on Black business development and strategy. Biographical information and historical context for Houchins’s life experiences during the twentieth century are included in an introduction. Houchins was a member of President Franklin Roosevelt’s Black Cabinet, a leader of the Division of Negro Affairs in the U.S. Department of Commerce, and a chair and professor of economics at Howard University. These two writings reflect a strategic effort to strengthen the efficiency and impact of Black business as an engine of Black progress. The first document presented here analyzes the high failure rate of Black-owned insurance companies, a mainstay of Black business especially in the 1920s and 30s. Houchins determined that their failure was due to several factors: lack of business knowledge; lack of access to capital; a tendency towards over-expenditure on office furnishings; and an over-identification with the clients, paying unjustified claims and failing to collect premiums on policies. The second document reports the results of a national survey that Houchins conducted to create a complete listing of Black chambers of commerce that could be used for intra-racial communication and mutual support. Both documents resonate today as the struggle for Black progress continues.     

For Colored Girls? Factors that Influence Teacher Recommendations into Advanced Courses for Black Girls

Given the lack of attention to Black girls’ participation in STEM related courses, it remains unclear why this group participates at lower rates in STEM courses later in their academic careers (Hyde et al. 2008; Tocci and Engelhard 1991; Catsambis 1994). The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which teachers influence Black girls’ opportunities along the math pipeline. The aim is to determine the role of Black girls’ cognitive and non-cognitive behaviors on teachers’ decisions to place them in advanced courses. Using nationally representative survey data, the findings indicate that Black girls’ confidence in their ability to master skills taught math reduced the odds teacher recommendations to advanced courses. Additionally, teachers’ expectations of the educational attainment of Black girls were related to the recommendation process. Overall, the findings suggest that subjective beliefs held by students and teachers critically influence Black girls’ persistence along the math pipeline.     

FDI,Education, and Economic Growth: Quality Matters

In this paper, we revisit the results from the influential study by Borensztein et al. (Journal of International Economics 45:115–135, 1998), which argues that inward foreign direct investment (FDI) promotes the economic growth in a less developed host country only when the host country obtains a threshold level of secondary schooling. Borensztein et al. (Journal of International Economics 45:115–135, 1998) only focus on the quantity of education. We take into consideration both the quantity and the quality of education. We adjust the original schooling data in Borensztein et al. (Journal of International Economics 45:115–135, 1998) by two quality of education indices and re-estimate their model. We find that the complementarity between inward FDI and schooling still exists, but the threshold level of schooling in our study is lower than the threshold calculated in Borensztein et al. (Journal of International Economics 45:115–135, 1998). Our results support the importance of education quality and suggest that with improved quality of education, it does not take as much quantity of schooling, as established in Borensztein et al. (Journal of International Economics 45:115–135, 1998), for inward FDI to have a positive impact on economic growth in the host country.     

Aid and Reform in Failing States

This paper reviews the policy implications of research on reform in failing states ( Chauvet and Collier 2006 , 2007a, 2007b , 2008 ; Chauvet et al. 2006 ; Chauvet et al. 2007a , 2007b ). After providing a precise definition of state failure and reform in such states, we present the internal constraints impeding reform in failing states. Élite preferences and insufficient social knowledge seem to be the major constraints on reform. We find that financial aid tends to allow the ruling élite to postpone reform. Technical assistance, however, has some effectiveness in relaxing the capacity constraint to implement reform, notably right at the beginning of reform.     

出口贸易结构变迁对中国经济增长的非对称影响效应研究——基于产品技术附加值分布的贸易结构分析法和动态面板数据模型的经验研究

本文首先基于关志雄(2002)和Lall等(2006)提出的基于产品技术附加值分布的贸易结构分析法构造出口贸易结构指数,考察了1992～2006年中国的出口贸易结构及其变迁,研究结果显示,中国的出口贸易结构变迁大致可以分为三个阶段。在此基础上,本文又采用动态面板数据模型深入分析了中国出口贸易结构变迁对经济增长的影响。定量分析结果表明:从出口总量层面上看,出口总量的增加对中国经济增长具有拉动作用;从出口贸易结构分量层面上看,出口贸易结构变迁对中国经济增长存在显著的非对称影响效应,即高附加值产品出口额的增加对中国经济增长的拉动作用要明显大于低附加值产品出口额的增加对经济增长的拉动作用,这表明出口贸易结构的优化促进了中国经济的长期持续增长。最后,针对中国的对外经贸和宏观经济发展现状,本文提出了优化中国出口贸易结构以促进中国经济可持续性平稳增长的对策建议。     

Investment in South Africa – a comment on recent contributions

This article questions the interpretation of investment made by Fedderke et al. in the October 2001 issue of Development Southern Africa, in particular the conclusion that the higher investment rates of manufacturing in the 1990s are associated with the reduction in state intervention. Rather than improved manufacturing investment, the striking feature of the 1990s is the low level of investment by the government and parastatals. After making a brief review of investment performance over the past decade, manufacturing investment at the sectoral level is assessed, highlighting the very large investments in heavy industries. It is state support in the form of development finance from the Industrial Development Corporation that underlies these patterns, and not the withdrawal of the state as argued by Fedderke et al.     

Compensation Discrimination: an Analysis of Linebackers,Defensive Linemen,and Defensive Backs in the National Football League

Previous studies have analyzed compensation discrimination in the National Football League with mixed results. We examine the market for defensive players: defensive linemen, linebackers, and defensive backs and find some evidence of discrimination against Black linebackers. We do not find any evidence of discrimination against Black defensive linemen and defensive backs. Our results provide some support for the hypothesis that employers, employees, or customers discriminate against Black linebackers due to prejudice against Black players who have to make decisions that play a major role in the success of the entire defense.     

新疆工业化发展水平测度及提升对策研究

根据钱纳里和库兹涅茨等人的工业化发展理论,从人均GDP、三次产业结构、就业结构、城镇化水平4个方面对新疆工业化发展水平进行测度。研究发现,新疆轻工业轻,重工业重,区域工业化发展水平差距大,以资源性工业为主,主导产业为服务业。根据分析,对新疆工业化水平的发展提出对策建议。     

Size and Characteristic of Housing Bubbles in China＇s Major Cities： 1999-2010

There is some disagreement in the published literature regarding the definition and the measurement of housing bubbles in China. Extending the analytical framework of Black et al. (2006), the present paper measures the housing bubbles of China's 35 major cities from the second quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2010. The results indicate that the housing bubbles in China's 35 major cities were relatively small in the sample interval, but the bubbles in eastern metropolises, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Ningbo, have been relatively big since 2005. The changing tendency of housing bubbles in most cities highly corresponds with the changes in real estate policies. This paper decomposes the housing bubbles of the 35 cities, and finds a great proportion of irrational bubbles rather than rational intrinsic bubbles generated by price speculation. Based on empirical analysis, this paper proposes policy recommendations for preventing the generation and expansion of housing bubbles.     

The consumption–wealth ratio,real estate wealth,and the Japanese stock market

The first contribution of this paper, in following the works of Lettau and Ludvigson, 2001a, Lettau and Ludvigson, 2001b, is to construct a Japanese consumption–wealth ratio data series and to examine whether it explains Japanese stock market data. We find that the consumption–wealth ratio does predict future stock returns, but the evidence is weaker than that from US data, and the source of predictability is limited to observations after the collapse of the asset bubble at the beginning of the 1990s. The consumption–wealth ratio also helps to explain cross-sectional Japanese stock returns. The second contribution of the paper is that we propose new consumption–wealth ratio that more explicitly deal with household real estate wealth utilizing Japanese aggregate-level data. Such “real estate augmented” consumption–wealth ratio perform better than the consumption–wealth ratio calculated with only financial wealth data. While the scaled factor model proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson performs relatively well with Japanese data, the book-to-market related anomaly pointed out by Chan et al. (1991) and Jagannathan et al. (1998) remains strong.     

The ‘light touch’ of the Black Death in the Southern Netherlands: an urban trick?

Although the fanciful notion that the Black Death bypassed the Low Countries has long been rejected, nevertheless a persistent view remains that the Low Countries experienced only a ‘light touch’ of the plague when placed in a broader European perspective, and recovered quickly and fully. However, in this article an array of dispersed sources for the Southern Netherlands together with a new mortmain accounts database for Hainaut show that the Black Death was severe, perhaps no less severe than other parts of western Europe; that serious plagues continued throughout the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries; and that the Black Death and recurring plagues spread over vast territories—including the countryside. The previous conception of a ‘light touch’ of plague in the Low Countries was created by the overprivileging of particular urban sources, and a failure to account for the rapid replenishment of cities via inward migration, which obscured demographic decimation. We suggest that the population of the Low Countries may not have recovered faster than other parts of western Europe but instead experienced a greater degree of post‐plague rural–urban migration.     

Educational Attainment,Citizenship, and Black American Women in Elected and Appointed National Leadership Positions

This article examines the issue of American citizenship and how it is related to Black Americans, especially from the perspectives of educational attainment and national political leadership positions (focusing on the U.S. Senate, office of governor, and the U.S. Supreme Court). The article presents seven interrelated conceptual or theoretical perspectives of American citizenship (Three Citizenships; Gender; Equality; Race; Belonging; Military Service; and Protestant Christianity), and where Black Americans (especially Black women) fit in them. The article claims that while Black American women have made substantial progress in college degree attainment, they have done so at a very high financial cost. The article claims that compared with other groups in the society, the gains in educational attainment made by Black American women have not resulted in them being elected or selected to these national leadership positions. Among the factors presented for this exclusion of Black women are: lack of strong support from Black American male leaders and institutional support; ambition; first occupy public office within the states of the Union; they must become moderate politicians; perception that Black women have more privileges in the society than Black men and other groups; and negative media portrayal of Black female candidates. The article claims that despite being one of the oldest and most native groups in the United States, with over nine out of every 10 of them being native-born citizens, Black American women in particular tend to have the characteristics of non-citizens.     

Recession-Induced Stress and the Prediction of Corporate Failure*

Abstract. In this paper we examine whether the occurrence of recession-induced stress is an incrementally informative factor that contributes to the predictive and explanatory power of accounting-based failure prediction models. We show that accounting-based statistical models used to predict corporate failure are sensitive to the occurrence of a recession. Moreover, after controlling for the intertemporally unconditioned “stressed” and “unstressed” types of corporate failure, we find that models conditioned on the occurrence of a recession still add incremental explanatory power in predicting the likelihood of corporate failure. This source-related characterization of stress appears distinct from other types of corporate failure that have been identified. Résumé. Les auteurs se demandent si l'occurrence du stress amené par la récession est un facteur qui apporte une information supplémentaire contribuant au pouvoir prédictif et explicatif des modèles de prévision des faillites reposant sur la comptabilité. Ils montrent que les modèles statistiques fondés sur la comptabilité utilisés pour prévoir les faillites des entreprises sont sensibles à l'occurrence d'une récession. De plus, une fois contrôlée la nature de la faillite de l'entreprise — faillite annoncée par le stress et faillite non annoncée par le stress sans conditionnement intertemporel —, les auteurs en viennent à la conclusion que les modèles conditionnés par l'occurrence d'une récession ont encore un pouvoir explicatif accru dans la prédiction de la probabilité de faillite de l'entreprise. Cette définition du stress liée à la source semble différente des autres types de faillite de l'entreprise qui ont été cernés.     

Transformation in the educational system: Catalysts for black change

Conclusion In conclusion it must be recognized that change is not necessarily change for the better. Some reforms will have no real impact on educational progress for blacks. If we want to improve the educational process and increase the quantity and quality of human capital available to the black community, we must support those reforms that will best serve that goal. The type and structure will vary from community to community. There is no single blueprint. This article merely attempts to present some of the details of proposed reforms to focus upon the factors that must be considered before a strategy can be determined. Presented at the Second Annual State of the Black Economy Symposium, April 28, 1972, Chicago, Illinois. Reprinted from vol. 2, no. 3 (Spring 1972) ofThe Review of Black Political Economy.     

The decline of adult smallpox in eighteenth-century London: a commentary

This article is a response to Davenport, Schwarz, and Boulton's article, ‘The decline of adult smallpox in eighteenth-century London’. It introduces new data on the parish of St Mary Whitechapel which casts doubt on the pattern of the age incidence of smallpox found by Davenport et al. However, it is concluded that there was a decline in adult smallpox in London, accompanied by a concentration of the disease among children under the age of five. Davenport et al.'s argument that the shift in the age incidence was due to the endemicization of smallpox in England is challenged, with an alternative view that these age changes can be accounted for by the practice of inoculation, both in the hinterland southern parishes of England and in London itself. A detailed discussion is carried out on the history of inoculation in London for the period 1760–1812. It is suggested that inoculation became increasingly popular in this period, rivalling in popularity the practice of vaccination. This was associated with a class conflict between the medical supporters of Jenner and the general population, with many of the latter being practitioners of the old inoculation.     

The anti-tobacco movement in the Progressive Era: A case study of direct democracy in Oregon

Little attention has been given to the cigarette bans that were enacted by many states in the late-19th and early-20th century. The recent study by Alston et al. [Explorations in Economic History 39 (2002) 425] represents the only empirical analysis of this issue. Alston et al., as typical for many other studies of historical regulatory movements, rely on legislative vote outcomes. In this article we examine the only occasion when a cigarette ban was put to a popular vote, in Oregon in 1930, and highlight the benefits of studying direct-democratic votes to assess support for regulatory movements. To study the relationship between the anti-cigarette movement and other reform movements of the era, we compare the determinants of support for the cigarette ban with support for an Oregon alcohol prohibition referendum in 1933. Our results suggest that supporters of both reform movements were more likely to be found in counties with higher percentages of women, evangelical Protestants, and rural residents, which contrasts with Alston et al.’s study of state legislative behavior. In addition, greater support for alcohol prohibition in particular was found in counties with a larger percentage of immigrants and, to a lesser extent, more registered Republicans.     

Crime, Job Searches, and Economic Growth

This paper constructs a theoretical model with which to analyze the puzzling links between unemployment and crime rates, described in the literature. Most theoretical papers on crime, such as Becker Journal of Political Economy 76, 169–217, (1968), Ehrlich Journal of Political Economy 81, 521–565, (1973), and İmrohoroğlu et al. International Economic Review 41, 1–25, (2000), emphasize the analysis of the equilibrium crime rate, dealing with the unemployment rate as an exogenous parameter, but little attention has been devoted to investigating the influence of the criminal market on the equilibrium unemployment rate in the labor market and how these markets interact. This paper illustrates how the causes of crime play a crucial role in the unemployment-crime relationship, wherein different causality result in different associative relationships between unemployment and crime. The aforementioned conclusion illustrates the theory explaining why the empirical findings related to the unemployment-crime relationship are mixed and equivocal. Second, this paper describes the diverse origins of crime, in which employed workers and unemployed workers have different incentives for entering a life of crime. Employed and unemployed workers assume different opportunity costs by engaging in criminal activities, resulting in different effects on the economy. This explains why crime rates relative to unemployment rates in different countries could be either procyclical or countercyclical.     

Revenge of the Black Cat--Interpretation of Allan Poe＆#39;s＆quot;Black Cat＆quot;

埃德加？爱伦？坡（1809～1849）,十九世纪美国诗人、小说家和文学评论家,同时爱伦坡也是一位恐怖小说大师。《黑猫》便是坡的代表作品之一。猫是整篇文章的线索,为什么一系列事件的发生与猫有关,到底是什么力量使男主人公最后走向毁灭。整个事件因猫而起,因猫而灭,由此作者发现故事中人物病态心理的产生,自我心灵的恐怖过程和最终走向毁灭的原因都是源于黑猫的复仇。本文通过对爱伦坡恐怖小说的背景的探索,及对原著仔细的分析,从黑猫的复仇的角度来解读《黑猫》。     

On the measurement of differences in the commodity composition of imports or exports

Conclusion Following earlier reservations concerning the use of Glejser et al.’s index, this paper has attempted to show that Glejser et al.’s basic ideas concerning the measurement of the extent of specialization in imports and exports did not depend on the use of a specific index. Any measure of the inequality of the ratios (M _i/M_gi) defined earlier (and similarly for exports) could, in fact, be used. The empirical section of this paper, which looked at the commodity composition of the exports and imports of Denmark, Ireland and the United Kingdom, before and after they joined the EEC, confirmed that there was a positive correlation between the various indices proposed.