国际旅游科学研究新热点:全球气候变化对旅游业影响研究

伴随着全球气候变化科学研究的兴起,近年来全球气候变化对旅游业的影响逐渐成为国际旅游科学研究的新热点。本文划分了气候变化与旅游业研究阶段,按照响应—适应—缓解的系统流程,从全球气候变化对旅游目的地、旅游流、旅游者心理与行为、旅游产业系统的影响以及旅游活动对气候变化的缓解与适应等5个方面进行了综述。最后,总结归纳了国际气候变化对旅游业影响研究的一些基本特点,以期为我国在此领域的研究提供一些有益的启示。     

旅游业碳排放计量与生态效率评价

气候与旅游关系的研究是当前国际旅游研究中的重要课题,且逐步由气候变化对旅游业的影响转变为旅游业对气候变化贡献的研究.政府、专家学者以及民众已经意识到旅游业不仅是气候变化的受害者,而且也是贡献者之一.全球气候变化在纷繁复杂的国际政治、经济和环境问题中也一直备受关注.在2015年9月举行的历史性首脑会议上联合国193个会员国一致通过了《2030年可持续发展议程》.2015年11月联合国《气候变化框架公约》第21次会议200个缔约方一致同意通过全球气候变化的新协议《巴黎协议》,它为2020年后全球应对气候变化行动作出了安排,开始了新一轮减缓温室效应的全球行动.     

物候学在旅游地理理论与实践中的应用基础和前景

在20世纪80年代应用地理大发展中应运而生的旅游地理学,因发展历程尚短、理论方法体系不十分健全和完善,对持续快速发展的旅游业支撑乏力,迫切需要从相邻学科吸收养分。物候学与旅游地理学交叉性质明显,可多方面支撑其发展。本文系统梳理了物候学对旅游业的学科支撑作用、具体实践应用领域、服务于旅游业高质量发展的6个维度以及气候变化对物候旅游资源和相关行业的影响。主要结论有：（1）物候概念有助于系统整合旅游系统中自然、人文和社会要素的相关旅游资源,而物候学应用亦可有效提升区域旅游业的服务支持子系统、交通子系统以及医疗健康子系统的效用;（2）物候学在旅游业发展中的实践应用主要涉及利用植物季相进行景观设计、观赏季划分与观赏期预报、体验类生态旅游活动的时间规划、花粉浓度预报与冰雪灾情预警以及旅游线路设计五大方面;（3）物候学可在要素、行业、过程、时空、方位和部门6个维度上服务于旅游业的高质量发展;（4）物候旅游资源和相关产业对于气候变化响应敏感,相关研究人员在未来应注重气候变化对其的风险影响研究,深入分析游客感知、行为反应所受影响,并积极参与中长期产业发展规划以及行业报告编制。从学科发展和产业应用的角度讲,物候学可为旅游学的研究提供自然科学的理论支撑,也为当今气候变化背景下旅游业的可持续发展提供科学指导。     

旅游业能源需求与二氧化碳排放研究进展

人类利用能源导致温室气体排放量的持续增加是全球气候变化的直接驱动力。旅游开发、旅游活动及旅游业发展引起的温室气体排放是旅游业驱动气候变化的重要因素,同时也是发展旅游业主要的环境影响结果之一。随着旅游业的蓬勃发展,旅游业对环境和气候变化的影响被相关国际组织和社会各界所关注,旅游业能源需求与二氧化碳排放研究成为近5年来旅游研究领域的热点。国外研究综述表明,目前已识别旅游业能耗、排放的重点领域及结构;在旅游业能源消耗与二氧化碳排放的定量估算研究与情景分析方面形成初步结论。对不同类型旅游交通方式、住宿方式及旅游活动的单位能耗和排放强度等关键性参数取得一般性认识,并识别了明显的国别、地区及不同部门之间的差异。基本形成体系化的节能减排政策措施。基于国内外旅游业能源需求与二氧化碳排放的结构与途径、测算、预测与情景分析及节能减排对策与措施等方面对比研究,作者指出未来国内研究应重点加强旅游交通和住宿业等重点领域能源需求与排放的定量实证研究,加强旅游业能源需求与排放的预测分析和情景研究,加快推进旅游业气候政策研究,切实提高旅游业应对气候变化和节能减排的研究水平,提高政策措施针对性和可操作性,以期为我国旅游业节能减排、应对气候变化提供科学依据。     

全球气候变化对中国南方五省区域旅游流的可能影响评估

全球气候变化是人类迄今面临的最重大、也是最为严重的全球环境问题,是21世纪人类面临的最复杂的挑战之一。已经观测到的气候变化影响是显著的、多方面的。各个领域和地区都存在有利和不利影响,但以不利影响为主。文章根据区域气候模式RegCM2模拟的气候情景,采用Lars Hein气候—旅游模型,研究气候增温情景对我国南方部分省份旅游流的可能影响。结果表明,与2008年相比,全球气候变化对研究区域年接待游客总量影响较小,但是在旅游流的季节影响分布上,差异较为明显。冬季旅游流基本呈上升趋势,而夏季则呈现出下降趋势,其中影响较大的省份分别是广东省和海南省,广东省影响最大,2月份增幅高达13.02%,8月份降幅高达13.62%。春季和秋季呈现不规律的过渡性变动,春季浙江省接待过夜游客数量呈明显上升趋势,而海南省呈下降趋势;秋季的情况与春季正好相反。     

基于“自然—乡村—城市”梯度开展的旅游和游憩研究:全球发展趋势和对中国的含义

正1.前言旅游和游憩专业的学术领域在过去的几十年里发展非常快。相关文献数量增多,研究人员团队不断壮大,而且对政策制定、规划和管理等领域的影响不断加强。保继刚等人在2014年指出,中国关于旅游研究的快速发展,与全球游憩和旅游研究趋势非常相似。与此同时,我们的世界面临越来越多的挑战,如气候变化、能源和资源枯竭、贫穷、公共     

海岛旅游研究进展与启示——以国际英文期刊载文为例

海岛旅游是国际旅游研究的重要领域,深入分析国际海岛旅游研究的演化脉络和重点领域,对于提升“海洋强国”战略背景下的海岛旅游研究水平,促进双循环发展格局下的产业高质量发展具有重要借鉴意义。以Web of Science^TM为数据源,使用科学计量工具CiteSpace 软件对2000—2019年的1 511篇英文海岛研究文献进行了可视化图谱分析,揭示研究发展脉络与研究热点。结果显示：（1）海岛旅游研究具有显著的阶段性特征,2000年以来可以划分为缓慢发展、稳步发展和快速发展3个阶段,研究内容从关注海岛旅游开发的生态环境影响,逐渐转向海岛旅游地人地关系的和谐发展;（2）国际海岛旅游研究具有市场依赖性和资源依托性特征,研究区域和研究对象大多集中在发达国家或海岛资源丰富国家,三位高引频次最高学者为Gossling、Hall和Scheyvens,发文期刊集中在环境科学与生态学、海洋海岸科学和旅游学3个领域;（3）海岛旅游研究热点主要集中在海岛旅游地资源环境、海岛旅游与全球气候变化、海岛旅游市场、海岛旅游经济影响、海岛旅游社区、海岛游客消费行为、海岛旅游规划与管理、海岛旅游可持续发展等领域。中国海岛旅游研究应在借鉴国际海岛旅游研究方法和成果基础上,完善海岛旅游理论与研究方法,加强海岛旅游资源与环境,海岛可持续旅游,海岛经济与文化影响,海岛游客消费行为等领域的研究。     

昆明城市形象、旅游目的地形象与游客行为意愿研究

文章以昆明为研究对象,通过结构方程模型分析潜在游客对昆明的城市形象感知与旅游目的地形象感知对其行为意愿的影响,并引入目的地熟悉度作为调节变量验证其在上述关系中的作用。结果表明：一座城市的城市形象与旅游目的地形象间的相互影响作用显著,且均为正向;城市形象和旅游目的地形象皆影响游客行为意愿,但影响程度与效果不同,目的地形象的负向效应大于城市形象的正向效应;目的地熟悉度在旅游目的地形象和游客行为意愿间具有显著的调节效应,但在城市形象和游客行为意愿之间的调节效果并不明显;不同类型的熟悉度在上述关系中的调节效应存在差异。     

中国旅游业减排政策框架设计与战略措施研究

旅游业是应对气候变化、节能减排的优势产业,对气候变化和减少二氧化碳排放存在着潜在的关键性作用。弄清中国旅游业二氧化碳排放的现状及总量,探明旅游业减排潜力,明确减排的目标,并为之设计切实有效的减排战略,是一个极富现实意义的研究命题。因而,设计一套完整的中国旅游业减排的政策框架,提出具体的战略措施,有助于推动我国旅游业转型升级,实现可持续发展,有助于推进我国降碳目标的实现。本文分析了旅游业在应对气候变化和节能减排中的作用及旅游业减排政策框架设计面临的问题,构建了概念性政策框架设计思路,提出旅游主管部门、旅游企业、旅游经营者和旅游者四位一体的减排措施。     

全球气候变化背景下低碳旅游研究进展及可视化分析

低碳旅游研究是气候变化背景下旅游研究的前沿问题和关键领域。以Web of Science核心合集、CSSCI及CSCD数据库中关于低碳旅游的文献为基础,利用CiteSpace软件、Alluvial Generator程序、Excel统计功能进行国内外低碳旅游研究的可视化分析。结果表明：国外低碳旅游研究起步时间早,始于系统外部与旅游业相互作用视角,以生态环境和工程技术学科为基础,主要为了解决“碳中和”等现实问题,已形成固定的区域性合作网络;国外研究以定量研究为基本范式,其关键文献全部围绕旅游碳排放的测算,且已经形成了较完善的减碳体系。而国内低碳旅游研究与国外的快速发展时期相吻合,是从旅游业可持续发展角度开展研究,依附于旅游及经管类学科,尚未形成固定的合作网络;国内研究在概念理论的定性研究方面优于国外,但整体研究视角较为单一且未形成完整体系,其关键文献包含基础概念、理论体系、碳排放测算、影响因素分析等诸多方面。     

The impact of tourism developments on CO2 emissions: An advanced panel data estimation

Vulnerability and interaction between tourism and climate change are among the most important issues discussed recently. In this context, this study focuses primarily on how CO₂ emissions, the main source of global warming and climate change, react to tourism developments. To this end, the impact of tourism developments on CO₂ emissions in the most visited countries is examined from 1995 to 2014 by conducting the continuously updated fully modified (CUP-FM) and the continuously updated bias-corrected (CUP-BC) estimators. Empirical results indicate that tourism arrivals have an increasing effect on CO₂ emissions, while tourism receipts have a reducing effect on CO₂ emissions. Results also reveal a possible co-movement and causal relationship between tourism developments and CO₂ emissions in the long-run.     

Tourist adaptation behavior in response to climate disasters in Bangladesh

To assess the impacts of climate disasters on the behavior of tourists in Bangladesh, this study makes an initial attempt to investigate tourists’ adaptation behavior in response to climate disasters. A questionnaire survey was developed and administered to address both tourists’ previous adaptation behavior and their stated adaptation behavior in response to different future climate disasters. The choice modeling analysis of tourists’ previous behavior revealed that a cyclone is more likely to result in the cancellation of a trip, and a flood is more likely to result in a change in trip timing. As for the stated behavior analysis, it was confirmed that most variables related to disaster severity show significant influence on adaptation behavior. The results also indicate that construction of disaster-resilient transportation networks is essential to avoid trip cancellations. In addition, improving market-oriented tourism service quality in Bangladesh could play a significant role in reducing the probability of both trip cancellations and changes of destination. The findings of this study can provide the tourism industry in Bangladesh with critical insights for future disaster management and sustainable development of the tourism industry.     

Implications of climate change for tourism in Australia

This study assesses the impacts of projected climate change on Australia's tourism industry. Based on application of the Tourism Climatic Index, it investigates potential changes in climatic attractiveness for Australia's major destinations, and discusses implications for tourist flows and tourism planning, development and management. Australia may see considerable changes in spatial and temporal patterns of climatic suitability for tourism, with a southward shift in the most desirable conditions and a decline in the climatic attractiveness of northern locations. For destinations in which conditions are projected to decline, increased investment in indoor amenities may become increasingly necessary; where conditions are projected to improve, the provision of adequate infrastructure to accommodate potential increases in visitation and implementation of mechanisms to minimise the impacts of excess use may be more important. Adoption of a pro-active rather than reactive stance to climate change will maximise the ability of tourism stakeholders to successfully adapt.     

Climate change and tourism: a scientometric analysis using CiteSpace

The interaction between climate change and tourism has been one of the most critical and dynamic research areas in the field of sustainable tourism in recent years. In this paper, a scientometric analysis of 976 academic publications between 1990 and 2015 related to climate change and tourism is presented to characterize the intellectual landscape by identifying and visualizing the evolution of the collaboration network, the co-citation network, and emerging trends. The results show that the number of publications in this field has increased rapidly and it has become an increasingly interdisciplinary research subject. The most productive authors and institutions in this subject area are in Australia, USA, Canada, New Zealand, and European countries. In this paper, we identify the most pressing topics of climate change and tourism research, as represented in the existing literature, which include the consequences of climate change for tourism, necessary adaptations, the vulnerability of the tourism industry, tourist behaviour and demand in response to climate change, and emission reductions in the tourism sector. The paper presents an in-depth analysis of climate change and tourism research to better understand global trends and directions in this field that have emerged over the past 25 years.     

How to evaluate the effects of climate change on tourism

The aim of this study is to assess the most relevant quantitative approaches to evaluating the effects of climate change on tourism. In recent years, numerous empirical studies have conducted evaluations of this kind, based on different methodologies and perspectives. This review shows that the effects of climate change can first be assessed through changes in physical conditions essential to tourism; secondly, by using climate indexes to measure the attractiveness of tourist destinations; and, thirdly, by modelling tourism demand with the inclusion of climate determinants. The review suggests that, although some methodologies are in the early stages of development, different approaches result in a similar map of those areas mainly affected by the problem.     

Climate Change and Tourism: An Overview

This paper presents an overview of the relationship between tourism and global climate change. On the one hand, the tourism industry may be one of the greatest economic victims of climate change. Yet, on the other hand, the broader tourism sector is also a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. This study traces the evolution of academic interest in tourism and climate change. Growth in this area has tracked growth in interest in climate change in general, with tourism-related papers representing consistently about 0.5% of the published research on climate change.     

New perspectives in Caribbean tourism

Forests are an important store of carbon within the global carbon cycle and increasingly play a role in climate change adaptation and mitigation. The review illustrates that the cultural, economic and environmental services of forests that are utilized for tourism and recreation are being affected by climate change. In addition to the changes to the distribution and composition of forests as a result of climate change, forest tourism is also affected by changes in frequency and intensity of fires, storm damage and the introduction of alien species. On examining the relevant literature on forests, tourism and climate change, the review identifies the need for a greater understanding of tourist perception of forest change as a major research task. There is also a need for better understanding of systemic effects of tourism-related climate change adaptation and mitigation policies on forest conservation and deforestation. The need for further research of urban forests and woodlands for climate change adaptation and mitigation and their potential implications for tourism and leisure is also highlighted.     

Geographic factors affecting tourism in Zambia

This paper discusses several geographical factors critical to tourism planning and development in Zambia. The paper focuses on the size, seasonality of climate, and population distribution of the country as well as the location of tourism resources and distances between tourist attractions. Individually and collectively, these factors have a major influence on the levels of occupancy in hotels and game lodges, and air and land transportation. The infrastructural development and its utilization for tourism are evaluated, and a number of constraints to tourism development are also examined. A discussion of appropriate tourism policies highlights the delicate relationship between economic and environmental factors. This study concludes that Tourism Master Plans should be more cognizant of geographic as well as economic factors when developing destinations such as Zambia.     

Travel,tourism, climate change,and behavioral change: travelers’ perspectives from a developing country,Nigeria

While studies have examined people's understanding of climate change and its relationship to tourism, these focus largely on developed country populations. Much future tourism growth will come from developing countries following economic development; often countries where climate change will be strongly felt. Do tourists from developing countries have the same knowledge gaps about travel, tourism, and climate change as in the developed world? Will behavioral change policies be successful in encouraging more environmentally friendly approaches to climate change and tourism in developing countries? This paper presents findings from 20 in-depth interviews with active Nigerian tourists, analyzing their understanding of climate change, the links known, or not, between their travel and climate change, and their willingness to change their tourism patterns. Understanding of climate change was limited and there was conceptual confusion. Participants did not view their own travel as a cause of climate change and many were embedded in air travel practice. Participants were unwilling to change their tourism patterns to reduce their contribution to climate change. Significant structural barriers limit low carbon tourism travel in Nigeria (and other developing countries), including reliability, availability safety, and speed. Behavioral change will be difficult to achieve.     

Policy coherence between tourism and climate policies: the case of Spain and the Autonomous Community of Catalonia

Abstract

The relationship between tourism and climate change is reciprocal. The effects of climate change on tourism are undeniable. However, tourism and climate change are complex and cross-cutting phenomena that enter policy agendas at different moments and with different discourses. This paper analyses the coherence between the policy domains of climate and tourism at the formulation stage of the policy process, focusing on national and regional government levels and the key touristic offer in Spain – that of sun, sea and sand. The proposed method analyses three dimensions within policy documents: frame significance, policy scope and connotation. Results reveal the imbalance between the two policy domains; the lack of concrete actions and stable mechanisms for achieving greater coherence; and the different conceptions of the issue. The paper considers the causal relationships between tourism and climate change, the consequences of mutual impacts, and the temporal dimension of problem framing. This research brings together three fields of knowledge – tourism, climate change and public policies – and suggests enhancing coherence between tourism and climate policies in order to address the sustainability of tourism destinations.