Interrelations between the dynamics of oil prices and demand: Contemporary characteristics

The article shows that the unprecedented rise in oil prices was in recent years accompanied by an increase in oil consumption. The author considers the growth that was seen in the magnitude of oil sales despite multiple increases in price to be, along with the buying up of oil as a high liquidity asset, a phenomenon that indicates an approaching crisis and allows us to create new approaches to its forecasting.     

Medium-term forecasting of demand prices on example of electricity prices for industry

In the paper, a method of forecasting demand prices for electric energy for the industry has been suggested. An algorithm of the forecast for 2006–2010 based on the data for 1997–2005 has been presented.     

Methods for forecasting the prices of military goods

A procedure for selecting the model of contract price for military goods and a method for predicting contract prices under effective competition are discussed.     

Adjustment of prices for energy resources

The paper is devoted to the problem of influence of domestic prices and tariffs for energy resources on economic development, as well as the problem of formation of the state policy of their adjustment. A calculation of basic indices of GDP energy intensity and the dynamics of prices for energy products is presented. The factors and consequences of the price dynamics are discussed. The aim of the paper is to reveal the complexity and multifaceted nature of the problem and show the inconclusive character of the approaches and solutions.     

Spread of E-commerce,prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from online price big data in Korea

The so-called Amazon effect is generally defined as such that the increasing competition in the online market and between online and traditional retailers is reducing retail markups and putting downward pressure on prices. This paper investigates the existence of the Amazon effect using online price big data in Korea where e-commerce has been rapidly spreading. For this task, the direct comparison between the online and offline prices were conducted in terms of the levels, trends, inflations, and dynamic correlations for two prices. Online prices for products were collected and classified under the identical classification in the CPI for 14 items in two divisions: food and non-alcoholic beverages and clothing and footwear. Laspeyres formula with identical weights as for the CPIs was applied to compilation of the item- and division-level OPIs (online price indexes) from July 2018 to June 2019. The empirical analyses overall indicated that persistent decreasing trends in the online prices were found when compared to those in the offline prices represented by the CPIs, indicating the existence of the Amazon effect in Korea. More specifically, the OPI covering two divisions decreased by 1.8%, while the CPI increased by 3.6% for the period. In addition, the close dynamic correlations between on-month inflations of two indexes were also found in panel regression and VAR estimations, indicating that a 1% increasing shock to OPI inflation led to an around 0.3% increasing response in the CPI inflation. The dynamic correlations, however, were quite different across the divisions. Those were more pronounced for the division of food and non-alcoholic beverages while they were found little in the division of clothing and footwear.     

Prediction of prices for oil products in the internal market

The paper considers the Russian market of oil products and provides a model of this sector, on the basis of which suggests approaches to forecasting the internal prices of oil producers within one scenario of economic development.     

内幕交易与证券价格的有效性

本文基于中国证券市场的实际情况，修正了Michael和Kathleen（1992）等提出的非竞争模型，探讨内幕交易对证券价格有效性的影响，研究信息和被内幕交易排挤的市场专家数目之间的关系。研究结果表明内幕交易降低了证券价格的有效性，监管的关键在于促使信息在市场参与者之间的均匀分布。     

Re-examining the cyclical behaviour of prices and output

Re-Examining the Cyclical Behaviour of Prices and Output. -Re-cent studies have suggested that prices are not predominantly procyclical and that estimates of negative correlations provide substantially more support for “real” or supply-side interpretations than for “nominal” or demand-side interpretations of business cycles. This paper re-examines the implications of macroeconomic theory for prices and output and provides an alternative interpretation of the empirical results. The main conclusions are: (i) the correlations, when taken at face value, identify the presence of only temporary supply and demand shocks which is inconsistent with the postwar experience of sustained inflation; (ii) demand-induced business cycles can very well deliver timevarying and negative price-output correlations.     

The US tech pulse,stock prices,and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from Asian developing countries

This paper empirically investigates the economic relationship between the US and Asian economies after the Asian currency crisis in Indonesia, Korea, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, employing a cointegration methodology. Based on the empirical results, we conclude that the interdependence between the US and these Asian economies has intensified especially in information technology industries, and that their stock markets are integrated. On the other hand, the relationship between the domestic stock and foreign exchange markets is found to have a negative sign, interpreted by portfolio balance approach, in Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand. This result implies that the exchange rates of these countries are relatively vulnerable to fluctuation in international portfolio investments.     

Investments,wages, prices and demand for labour

Summary Since 1971 the employment in the Netherlands has continuously decreased. Apart from the decrease caused by the recent depression, particularly in the year 1975, the decrease is a more pronounced continuation of a tendency which is manifest already in a number of years before. In this paper an attempt is made to explain the structural development of employment by means of a clay-clay vintage model. It appears that the unfavourable development of employment is connected with the accelerated growth of real labour costs in the past decade.This article is a translation of a revised and somewhat extended version of a paper published earlier in Dutch: H. den Hartog and H. S. Tjan,Investeringen, lonen, prijzen en arbeidsplaatsen, Central Planning Bureau, Occasional Paper, 1974/2, The Hague, 1974. This revised version of the clay-clay vintage model was introduced into a much more complete model of the economy of the Netherlands in: H. den Hartog, Th. C. M. J. van de Klundert and H. S. Tjan, De structurele ontwikkeling van de werkgelegenheid in macro-economisch perspectief, inWerkloosheid, Preadviezen van de Vereniging voor de Staathuishoudkunde, The Hague, 1975.     

Random prices and estimation of the elasticity of substitution

Summary We have examined the profit-maximizing specification for estimating the elasticity of substitution from the CES production function under conditions of random output prices. The results added further support to the suggestion that a cost-minimizing specification is preferable. But the main purpose of the paper was to offer a sample of one instance where the recent developments in the uncertainty literature cause econometric difficulties. Much further study needs to be done on other estimation problems. After all, the purpose of estimation is to shed light on the values of “real world” parameters and the real world is filled with uncertainty to one degree or another.     

Regulation, competition, and the structure of prices

Many competition policy issues in regulated industries concernthe structure of prices charged by multi-product firms - forexample price discrimination, non-linear pricing, cross-subsidies,and network access pricing. This article first sets out the(Ramsey) principles of optimal pricing to recover fixed costs.The sometimes conflicting aims of promoting competition andpursuing social objectives are brought into the analysis. Questionsof whether to allow pricing structure discretion to the firm,and how much, are considered next. With asymmetric information,some discretion is often desirable, but its optimal form ishard to characterize. The article then turns to the controversialnetwork access pricing problem - on what terms should an integrateddominant firm be required to supply inputs required by its rivals?Finally, there is discussion of pricing structure regulationin the transition from more to less regulation, which, it isto be hoped, is in prospect in parts of the regulated industriesas effective competition develops.     

Growth in prices for mining products in the post-Soviet period and economic deindustrialization

In the context of growing prices for mining products aimed at achieving the world price level, economic deindustrialization occurs due to the changed proportions of the redistribution of natural resource royalties. The ways of the cross-sectoral redistribution of resource royalties and increase in their macroeconomic efficiency by changing forms of industrial production are discussed in the article.     

The economics of aesthetics and record prices for art since 1701

Aggregate art price patterns mask a lot of underlying variation—both in the time series and in the cross-section. We argue that, to increase our understanding of the market for aesthetics, it is helpful to take a micro perspective on the formation of art prices, and acknowledge that each artwork gives rise to a market for trading in its private-value benefits. We discuss relevant recent literature, and illustrate the potential of this approach through a historical study of record prices for art at auction since 1701.     

A nonlinear pairwise approach for the convergence of UK regional house prices

We examine the long-run convergence across 12 UK regional house prices using a pairwise approach. The time period spans from 1983:1 to 2012:4. Linear, nonlinear and asymmetric unit root tests are considered for assessing the stationarity of all possible pairs. The test statistic for convergence is based on the percentage of unit root test rejections across all regional house price differentials. The percent of the pairs that reject the null increase from 6% in the linear ADF case to 53% for the nonlinear unit root. Probit analysis reveals that house price differentials in the South are more likely to be stationary and as a result tend to converge more compared to the North.     

面向农产品期货价格预测的改进LSTM方法

期货市场在金融领域具有重要的地位,而期货价格走势的预测对投资者和决策都十分关键。目前,期货价格走势预测模型使用的方法较为单一,且预测模型的精度不够理想。文章以农产品期货价格预测为研究对象,围绕数据预处理、模型构建、集成决策等展开相关工作,针对农产品期货价格具有的典型时序性特征以及其非线性、非平稳等特点,提出一种基于LSTM模型的改进LSTM预测方法。该改进方法引入EEMD方法,先对原始期货价格序列进行分解,再对分解所得的每个子序列进行建模、预测、叠加子序列预测结果以得到最后的预测结果。实验结果表明,该改进方法与LSTM,SVR等传统的机器学习预测模型相比,精度明显提升。     

面向二十一世纪的日俄木材贸易--兼论中国的作用

本文分析和研究了2000年以后日俄木材贸易的基本特征和发展前景，指出中国将在二十一世纪的日俄木材贸易中发挥举足轻重的作用。     

Export and import prices of the developing areas in the sixties

Zusammenfassung Export- und Importpreise für Entwicklungsgebiete in den sechziger Jahren. — Führte die milde Inflation in den entwickelten L?ndern w?hrend der sechziger Jahre zu einer Verschlechterung der Terms of trade der Entwicklungsl?nder? Lateinamerika, Afrika und der Mittlere Osten werden als je ein Gebiet aufgefa\t und die Export- und Importpreise jedes dieser Entwicklungsgebiete werden in einem kleinen ?konometrischen Modell mit den Export- und Importpreisen, dem BSP-Deflator und einem Lohnindex für die entwickelten Marktwirtschaften verbunden. Die Preise in den entwickelten L?ndern erkl?ren die Terms of trade in den Entwicklungsl?ndern recht gut. Nur die Terms of trade des Mittleren Ostens verschlechtern sich in dem betrachteten Zeitraum wesentlich.

---

Résumé Les prix à l'exportation et à l'importation des régions développantes dans les années soixante. — Est-ce que l'inflation modérée dans les pays développés pendant les années soixante cause une détérioration des termes des échanges des pays développants ? Nous développons un petit modèle économétrique pour chaque des régions développantes l'Amérique Latine, l'Afrique développante et le Moyen-Orient liant les prix à l'exportation et à l'importation de ces régions développantes aux prix à l'exportation et à l'importation, au déflateur PNB et à un indice de salaire des économies du marché développées. Ces prix dans les pays développés expliquent les termes des échanges des régions développantes assez bien. Cependant seuls les termes des échanges du Moyen-Orient détériorent significativement.

---

Resumen Precios de importación y de exportación de las areas en desarrollo en los anos sesenta. — Causó la débil inflación en los pa?ses desarrollados durante los anos sesenta un deterioro de los términos del intercambio de los países en desarrollo? Se desarrolla un pequeno modelo econométrico para cada una de las áreas en desarrollo, América Latina, los países africanos en desarrollo, y el Medio Oriente, ligando los precios de importación y de exportaci?n de estas áreas en desarrollo con los precios de importación y exportación, el deflactor del PNB y el indice salarial de los paises de mercado desarrollados. Los precios en los países desarrollados explican los términos del intercambio de las áreas en desarrollo bastante bien. Sin embargo, solamente los términos del intercambio del Medio Oriente se deterioran significativamente.

     

The impact of rising oil prices on oil-importing developing countries and the scope for adjustment

Zusammenfassung Die Auswirkungen steigender ?lpreise auf die ?limportierenden Entwicklungsl?nder und der Spielraum für Anpassungen. — In diesem Aufsatz werden mit Hilfe eines Simulationsmodells sowohl die Auswirkungen steigender ?lpreise auf die ?limportierenden Entwicklungsl?nder als auch die Anpassungsma\nahmen untersucht, die dazu beitragen, diese Folgen weitgehend zu mildem. Ermittelt werden die Wirkungen auf das Wachstum des Bruttoinlandsprodukts, die Inflationsrate und die Handelsbilanz von Brasilien, Indien und Kenia. Es zeigt sich, da\ nach einer ?lpreiserh?hung das Realeinkommen am st?rksten zurückgeht und die Inflationsrate am h?chsten ist, wenn die Nominall?hne der Inflationsrate angepa\t werden. Die geringsten Einbu\en für das Realeinkommen ergeben sich, wenn die Staatsausgaben nicht durch die Inflation aufgezehrt, sondern real aufrechterhalten werden. Die Kehrseite der Medaille ist, da\ sich die Handelsbilanz bei voller Anpassung der L?hne am wenigsten und bei konstanten realen Staatsausgaben am st?rksten verschlechtert. Ein beruhigendes Ergebnis ist, da\ alternative Annahmen über die Einkommens- und Preiselastizit?ten die Resultate der verschiedenen Simulationen nicht wesentlich beeintr?chtigen.

---

Résumé Les effets des prix pétroliers accroissants sur les pays développants importants du pétrole et la marge d’ajuster. — Dans cet article les auteurs appliquent un modèle de simulation pour analyser les effets des prix pétroliers accroissants sur les pays développants importants du pétrole aussi bien que les mesures d’ajustement qui contribuent à mitiger largement cet effet. On démontre les effets sur la croissance du produit intérieur brut, le taux d’inflation et sur la balance commerciale du Brésil, de l’Inde et du Kenya. On a trouvé que le revenu réel se réduit le plus et l’inflation s’accroit le plus après une augmentation du prix pétrolier si les salaires nominaux sont ajustés suivant le taux d’inflation. L’effet le plus faible sur le revenu réel est obtenu si les dépenses du gouvernement ne sont pas érodées par l’inflation mais maintenues en terme réel. Le revers de la médaille est que la balance commerciale se détériore le moins dans le cas d’un ajustement complet des salaires et qu’elle est affectée le plus dans le cas mentionné en dernier lieu. Un résultat rassurant est que des suppositions alternatives sur les élasticités de revenu et de prix n’influencent pas significativement le résultat des simulations différentes.

---

Resumen El impacto de precios del petróleo crecientes sobre los países en desarrollo importadores de petróleo y el ámbito de ajuste. — En este artículo se analizan mediante la utilización de un modelo de simulación el impacto de precios del petróleo crecientes sobre países en desarrollo importadores de petróleo como también las medidas de ajuste que ayudan a suavizar ampliamente este impacto. El modelo se aplicó para mostrar el impacto sobre el crecimiento del producto geográfico bruto, la tasa de inflaeión y la balanza comercial de Brasil, India y Kenia. Se descubrió que después de un aumento de precios del petr?leo la declinación del ingreso real es mayor y la inflaeión es la más alta si los salarios nominales se ajustan en la misma proporeión que la tasa de inflaeión. El impacto ’mas bajo sobre el ingreso real se obtiene si el gasto del Gobierno no se erosiona por la inflaeión y se mantiene en términos reales. La otra cara de la medalla es que en el caso de ajuste total de los salarios, la balanza comercial se détériora en la menor proporeión mientras que en el último caso es afectada en la mayor proporeión. Un resultado reconfortante es que suposiciones alternativas sobre elasticidades de ingresos y precios no afectan significativamente los resultados de las variadas simulaciones.