Wage structure effects of international trade in a small open economy: the case of Belgium

This paper investigates the impact of international trade on wage dispersion in a small open economy, Belgium. It is one of the few to: (i) use detailed, matched employer-employee data to compute industry wage premia and disaggregated industry-level panel data to examine the impact of changes in international trade on changes in wage differentials, (ii) simultaneously analyse both imports and exports, and (iii) examine the impact of imports according to the country of origin. Looking at the export side, we find (on the basis of the system generalized method of moments estimator) a positive effect of exports on industry wage premia. The results also show that import penetration has a significant and negative impact on industry wage differentials. However, the detrimental effect of imports on wages is found to be significantly greater when imports originate from low- and middle-income countries than from high-income countries.     

The recent behavior of Japanese imports: A disaggregated analysis

This study investigates the factors behind the recent surge in Japanese imports. It finds evidence of a rise in the long-run income elasticity of total real imports in the mid-1980s. The increase derives from similar behavioral changes at the end-use level and, to a lesser extent, major compositional shifts in the structure of Japanese imports. The behavioral changes in aggregate and end-use imports are likely to reflect important structural developments in the Japanese import market and have potentially significant implications for the impact of macroeconomic policies in Japan on future import performance.     

Further evidence on the effect of foreign competition on industry level wages

Conclusions This paper has examined the impact of trade changes on industry level wage outcomes in a bargaining framework. The results suggest that on average increases in trade, whether emanating from imports or exports, serve to decrease wage changes. This evidence is consistent with the view that foreign trade acts to moderate demand for an industry’s output and hence to discipline wage setting and is consistent with what Konings and Vandenbussche (1995) reported for UK manufacturing.     

The effects of Europe’s internal market program on production and trade: A first assessment

The Effects of Europe’s Internal Market Program on Production and Trade: A First Assessment. — The paper analyzes the extent of structural changes that have occurred inside the EC since the launching of the internal market program. The first part of the paper examines intersectoral shifts in the pattern of specialization within EC manufacturing and finds relatively little change from 1986 to 1992. The second analyzes the trade impact of the internal market program, and finds that internal and external trade creation have both prevailed. The third uses regression analysis to explain the share of intra-EC imports in total EC imports in 1986 and in 1992, and identifies the impact of the internal market program.     

Scientific and technological dimensions of the macrostructural forecast

This paper explores possible approaches to quantifying the relationship between expenditures on research and development and economic development. The mechanisms that underpin the transfer of scientific results via the imports of final products, goods, and services have been analyzed. The impact of total R&D costs on the dynamic and structural characteristics of economic development are investigated. The level of R&D costs, which is required in the medium term in order to pursue the constructive scenario for the development of the Russian economy, has been estimated.     

Impacts of trade liberalisation on aggregate import in Bangladesh: An ARDL Bounds test approach

Bangladesh has been liberalising its trade regime extensively since 1992 in order to achieve higher trade performance and GDP growth. However, despite the long period of liberalisation, imports are still growing faster than exports, increasing the trade deficit. Trade liberalisation is considered a crucial contributory factor. The paper examines the impact of trade liberalisation on the aggregate import in Bangladesh, using the ARDL Bounds Test approach with annual time series data from 1972–1973 to 2004–2005. Empirical results suggest that trade liberalisation through reduction of the import duty rate increases the aggregate import substantially in the short run, but insignificantly in the long run. Trade liberalisation using simplification of non-tariff measures shows a significant but low positive impact on the aggregate import in the long run. Liberalisation interaction with price decreases imports slightly hence improves the trade balance, while interaction with income increases imports slightly hence worsens the trade balance. An increase in imports is mainly stimulated by an increase in income. Moreover, higher income elasticity compared to price elasticity indicates that an effort to maintain imports at the desired level by increasing import duty could be counter balanced and ineffective. Therefore, a consistent policy to promote not only consumption of domestically produced products, but investment, production, and backward linkage industries is essential in order to improve the trade balance and GDP growth in Bangladesh.     

Trade creation,trade diversion,and the general equilibrium effects of regional trade agreements: a study of the European Community–Turkey customs union

This paper presents an industry-level analysis of trade flows in order to estimate the trade effects of Turkey’s customs union with the European Community (EC). The paper is able to distinguish between trade creation and trade diversion by employing tariff data on each good to measure the impact of not only the tariff level but also the difference between tariffs applied to imports from Europe and the most-favored nation tariffs applied to imports from other non-preferential trading partners. The paper estimates the general equilibrium effects of the customs union in addition to the effects of eliminating tariffs on the EC’s exports to Turkey. It concludes that the customs union has generated more than twice as much trade creation as trade diversion but that the overall impact of the customs union has been relatively small.     

Trade effects of European Community preferences to Mediterranean countries: The case of textile and clothing imports

The European Community (EC)'s preferential trade agreements with Mediterranean countries have been subject to little ex post assessment. This paper analyses the preferences' impact on EC textile and clothing imports from Mediterranean countries. The preferred imports grew faster than world trade or OECD imports from developing countries, and as a proportion of EC imports and Mediterranean exports; EC preferences thus appear to have had a significant effect on Mediterranean countries' textile and clothing exports, although some recipients have taken greater advantage than others. Post-1977 EC protectionism in these products further benefited the preference-recipients, who were largely unimpeded by quatitative restrictions.     

China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries

We analyze the impact of China’s growth on the exports of other Asian countries, distinguishing China’s demand for imports from its penetration of export markets. We account for the endogeneity of Chinese exports by applying instrumental variables in a gravity model with country-pair fixed-effects. We find that China’s crowding-out effect is felt mainly in markets for consumer goods and hence by less-developed Asian countries, not in markets for capital goods or by the more advanced Asian economies. Meanwhile, China has been sucking in imports from its Asian neighbors, but this effect is mainly felt in markets for capital goods. Hence, more and less developed Asian countries are being affected very differently by China’s rise. JEL no. E5, F4     

关于日本对华直接投资贸易效应的实证分析

有关外商直接投资的贸易效应已经成为理论界讨论的热点问题,大量文献讨论了投资对贸易流量的影响.本文在前人研究的基础上,采用协整检验及误差修正模型检验,分析日本对华直接投资对于中日双边贸易所产生的效应.结果表明,日本对华直接投资与中国对日进、出口均表现为一种显著的协整关系;无论从长期还是短期看,日本对华直接投资与中国对日本的出口具有显著的双向格兰杰因果关系,但与中国对日本进口仅有单向的因果关系.     

煤炭政策对煤炭价格影响的实证研究

自2013年以来，由于受到国内外经济下滑趋势的影响，煤炭价格持续走低。为此，政府出台了一系列煤炭救市政策，通过控产量、限进口等来促进煤价回升。运用VAR模型、协整等计量方法研究煤炭产量、销量及进口量与煤炭价格间的动态关系。结果表明煤炭产量、销量及进口量与煤炭价格之间存在长期协整关系，但是其对煤炭价格的调控作用并不明显。     

Technology transfer to the U.S.S.R and the shape of the production function

Summary In this paper we argue that previous studies of the impact of imports of Western capital to the Soviet Union have erred by emphasizing the direct contribution of such capital to output. To our view, a more important consequence of such imports is a catalytic effect on the productivity of indigenous capital and labor cooperating with Western machinery. Estimates of production functions for Soviet industry and several subsectors indicate that Western capital imports do improve the productivity of indigenous inputs and make the production process more capital intensive.     

服务贸易对浙江经济增长影响的实证分析

本文实证检验了服务贸易对浙江GDP增长的影响,发现浙江服务贸易出口会促进经济增长,进口则会制约经济增长。而且出口、进口均是GDP增长的格兰杰原因。在尝试性地对这些结果进行相应解释的基础上,提出了发展服务贸易、促进浙江经济增长的建议。     

Economic Development in Asian Countries, and the Effectof Trade in Asia on Employment and Wages in Japan

There is a controversy in the USA and several European countries on whether or not an increase in imports in manufacturing goods from low-wage developing countries has major effects on employment and wages in industrialized countries. This paper examines the issue for Japanese imports, paying a particular attention to the effect of manufacturing imports from Asian countries on employment and wages in Japan. It is found that the effect has not been large to date, but that there could be negative effects on employment and, in particular, wages if imports from China and India were to increase substantially.     

The complementarity between U.S. foreign direct investment stock and trade

Within a gravity model framework, this paper will establish that trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are complementary, using trade and FDI stock data on a bilateral basis between the U.S. and 51 other countries over the period 1982 to 1994. U.S. outward FDI is found to have a larger predicted impact on U.S. exports than does inward FDI. On the other hand, inward FDI is found to have a larger predicted impact on U.S. imports than does U.S. outward FDI. These results are directly linked to patterns of intrafirm trade within the multinational enterprise (MNE), a result consistent with the transactions cost theory of MNEs. In addition, a sectoral analysis indicates that U.S. outward FDI in manufacturing has a large predicted impact on both exports and imports, whereas U.S. outward FDI in services has a large predicted impact on U.S. exports but little or no predicted impact on imports. Detailed comments and suggestions were provided by Joe Daniels, Albert Berry, and seminar participants at the University of Toronto, York University, Industry Canada, and the 1999 annual Canadian Economics Association meeting. Research assistance was provided by George Georgopoulos and Anthony Yao. The authors are responsible for any remaining errors.     

China's impact on South African trade and inflation

There has been much controversy about the impact of Chinese growth on the rest of the world. It is generally accepted that China has a dampening effect on global inflation through the supply of cheap products. On the other hand, imports from China could displace domestic production and hence have adverse effects on economic growth and employment. Thus, the question of whether a country benefits from trading with China is a country-specific issue. The results in this paper indicate that limited short-term costs have resulted from the strengthening of trade relations between South Africa and China. As far as inflation is concerned, the paper does not find convincing empirical evidence at the aggregate level for inflation in China leading to domestic price changes. At the disaggregate level, however, there appear to be stronger sector-specific linkages between prices in China and South Africa.     

International trade and agricultural production: Evidence from the Southern African Development Community sub-region

Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries have undertaken substantial reforms in market liberalisation policies and regional integration initiatives. Theory suggests that trade can affect output through the exploitation of comparative advantage, increasing return to scale, liberalisation policies and technology. This work investigates the impact of agricultural exports to, machinery and chemical imports from and tariffs on agricultural products by total partners to the Southern African Customs' Union, SADC, sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world on agricultural production. Following Hausman tests, three panel fixed-effect models are estimated. The first is for aggregate machinery imports, chemicals imports and agricultural exports. The second is for disaggregated exports and imports according to the respective destination and source regions above. The third is for aggregate imports and disaggregated tariffs implemented by the various export destination regions toward the SADC. The results agree with the theory that international trade is good for development. Agricultural market expansion through export opportunities and access to inputs are significant sources of agricultural production enhancement in the SADC region. Tariffs barriers to agricultural exports are found to be significant impediments to agricultural production. However, the disparity of effects by export destination and the insignificance of the impact of trade with the rest of Africa are worth emphasising.     

Effects of China's Structural Change on the Exports of East Asian Economies

The Chinese economy is slowing down and is in the midst of a structural transformation from export‐led and investment‐led growth to domestic demand‐led and consumption‐led growth. While there are widespread concerns among China's trading partners about the effect of the slowdown in China's growth on their exports, China's structural changes are also likely to have a significant impact: for example, China will import fewer machines and more cosmetics. The central objective of the present paper is to empirically examine the effect of China's structural transformation on the exports of East Asian economies, which have close trade linkages with China. We find that economies that have failed to increase the share of consumption goods in their exports to China have suffered larger declines in their quantities of exports to China. In addition, economies that have suffered losses in their shares of China's parts and components imports have faced reductions in their shares in China's total imports.     

中国的价格贸易条件恶化——基于影响因素的经验分析

我国的价格贸易条件一直在恶化,本文利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法对此进行了影响因素的实证分析,发现实际汇率、初级产品进口、工业制成品出口和贸易收支在长期内都不同程度地恶化着我国的贸易条件,这其中又以工业制成品出口的恶化效应最大,但这种恶化是中国经济成长过程中作为一个大国必须对世界做出的贡献。最后基于此分析和全球化的视角得出贸易条件的含义有所转变的结论。     

Chinese exports and productivity gains: panel evidence

This paper examines the impact of imports from China on the labour productivity levels of importers, using unbalanced data from 1994 to 2006. It is hypothesised that imports from China increase importer countries' labour productivity levels. Using cross‐section, fixed and random‐effect models, a statistically significant, positive relationship is found between the share of a country's imports from China and labour productivity in the manufacturing sector of that country. Moreover, it is found that imports from China have a larger impact on China's main Asian‐Pacific trade partners and countries with higher manufacturing shares in their total exports.