Forecasting the results of innovative activity taking into account significant factors in the regions of Russia

Topical issues of enhancing innovative activity in regions of Russia are studied using the LASSO method for ranking various factors in terms of their impact on the release of innovative products in a particular region. It has been shown that, when developing national concepts of socioeconomic development, it must necessarily be taken into account that it is wrong to focus on average regions as regional specific features. The forecast calculations of the volume of innovative goods, works, and services have been carried out for the most important regions of the Siberian Federal District. Urgent problems of innovative activity have been identified for regions of Russia with different levels of development.     

Improving the Factor Efficiency of Machinery in the Regions of the Russian Federation

The article has presented the results of research conducted to evaluate the influence of investment and innovation factors on the development of machinery in the regions of the Russian Federation. The research uses unique methods of assessing the innovative component of investment activity and the effectiveness of innovations. They have been used to perform quantitative evaluations of investment effectiveness and innovation activities in regions with the developed machinery industry, as well as the evaluation of the influence of innovation and investment factors on production indicators and foreign economic activity in these regions. The obtained results have shown that the innovative and investment activities in the majority of regions have a significant impact on the competitiveness of the output in machinery industry and potential of the regional exports. The regional machinery production behavior has been forecasted based on this.     

基于灰色关联分析的创新型人才流动宏观影响因素研究

创新型人才是推动地区创新发展的核心动力。基于2011—2021年中国内地31个省份（因数据缺失,未包括港澳台地区）面板数据,通过构建灰色关联分析模型考察宏观环境因素对创新型人才流动的影响。结果表明,良好的经济发展水平和收入水平能显著促进省际间创新型人才流动;在分样本情境下,宏观环境因素对创新型人才流动的影响具有空间异质性。中西部地区创新型人才流动受经济发展水平的影响较大,东部地区创新型人才流动受收入水平影响较大;相较于东部地区,中部地区和西部地区的第三产业产值比重对创新型人才流动有较明显的影响;R&D经费投入在促进中部地区创新型人才流动中扮演着更为重要的角色;第二产业产值比重和教育环境对创新型人才流动影响力度偏弱。据此,提出进一步贯彻西部大开发和中部崛起战略、提高创新型人才收入水平、加快产业结构调整和优化、继续发挥R&D经费对科技人才流动的促进作用、创造良好教育环境等建议,为城市和区域人才政策和区域发展政策的制定提供借鉴与参考。     

财政科研项目管理政策对提升专利质量的影响及其机制研究

高质量专利是支撑国家实现创新发展的战略性资源。通过梳理专利质量、专利价值与科技创新活动的关系，明晰政府在提升专利质量中的定位和作用。基于基本政策工具和科技成果价值链构建二维分析框架，梳理评估现有政策及运行情况，研究影响科技创新产出专利质量的因素，找准制约提升科技创新专利质量的财政科技管理体制的瓶颈。为完善财政科技项目管理体制，提升专利质量提供具体的政策建议。     

发挥高校工会教育职能 提升教职工创新能力

高校工会承担着对广大教职员工的教育职能,在培养教职工创新能力方面的作用不可忽视。其教育职能主要表现在以下方面：传播科学理论,指导创新方向;增强法治意识,规范创新实践;培养优良作风,营造创新氛围;培育健康心理,推进创新活动。     

中国31省市工业企业创新活力的评价

工业企业的创新活力是区域创新水平的重要表现.利用因子模型L对影响工业企业创新活力的7个二级指标提炼公因子,结果显示可以从研发活力与创新动力两个层面对中国31个省市的工业企业创新活力进行综合评价.模型表明:企业的研发投入与产出是影响创新活力的主要因素.通过K?mean聚类分析法,将中国31个省市的工业企业创新活力划分为"较高、一般、较低"3个层面,通过改善区域内企业的创新活动的交易成本,降低研发活动未来的不确定性风险,引进创新型人才将有助于提升区域内的工业企业的创新活力.     

创新投入对区域科技创新能力的影响研究——以江苏省为例

采用系统动力学方法,围绕政府、高校与企业3个主体构建系统动力学模型,探究不同因素对于江苏省科技创新能力的影响程度。结果显示：政府长期的科技支出与教育支出均能够促进江苏省科技创新水平的提升,但短期内加大教育支出并不能立竿见影;适当增加高校在校生人数有利于促进区域内发明专利的产出,提升江苏省科技创新水平;企业可适当加大对企业内部的R&D经费投入,促进企业创新性成果的产出,进而提升区域创新能力。     

An empirical assessment of the effects of trade in innovative tasks on innovation output

Multinational firms are increasingly sending their innovative tasks abroad. This article examines whether offshoring research and development, design, and engineering activities provides any gains in terms of firm‐level innovation output. The effects of trade in innovative tasks on the probability of firms being innovative and the share of innovative product sales in total turnover are examined using an instrumental variable approach. The data in use come from a recent survey, which provides cross‐section observations for more than 14,750 firms in seven European countries. The results suggest that those firms that offshore their innovative activities are 60% more likely to successfully innovate. Also, offshoring innovative activities increases the share of innovative product sales in total turnover up to 35%. Furthermore, firms in this sample appear to gain from trade in innovative tasks when such trade is in product innovation but not when such trade is in process innovation.     

基于因子分析算法的长三角科创能力分析

长三角地区是重要的经济区,随着区域协同创新的框架不断完善,对长三角科技创新能力的评估需求愈发明显.通过选取一系列客观、可查的统计数据,并从中抽取部分指标,构建长三角科技创新能力的量化评价体系.并应用因子分析计算模型,分析长三角"三省一市"综合创新能力排名,以及不同影响因子的具体得分情况,为长三角经济中心科技创新发展提供相应量化后的数据.通过对长三角科技创新能力的综合评价和对比分析,促进未来长三角区域的科技创新以及技术研究成果的转化,推动科技服务业快速发展.     

创新方法科普策略与模式研究

从公众科学素质提升出发,详细分析了创新方法普及传播的重大意义,从缺乏顶层设计与战略规划、普及传播体系不健全等四个方面剖析了目前我国创新方法普及传播中存在的瓶颈与问题,针对创新方法普及传播和公众需求的特点,提出了五种普及传播模式与策略,从科普工作、创新方法传播体系建设、创新方法公共服务平台建设、创新方法校园行活动四个方面提出了建议。     

长三角区域科技创新体系的特点及其启示

在区域科技创新能力方面,长三角地区两省一市位居我国前列,属于创新能力较强的省市。基于此,文章重点分析了长三角区域两省一市科技创新体系的具体特点,以期给我国其他地区建设创新型省市提供经验借鉴.     

The origin of variational models of the innovation development of Russian regions

The paper considers the general approach to the formation of models for innovative development of Russian regions as the basis for making decisions on specific governance actions aimed at the reformation of their economies. The reliance on the social-psychological approaches makes it possible to take account of a greater number of factors and serves a basis for generation of a whole class of prognostic models. An example of such a model is offered localizing an innovative complex in the studied region, and potentially useful data for socioeconomic project planning are produced.     

高校R&D投入与科技产出关系的动态分析及预测

科学准确的评价高校R&D投入产出情况,对正确认识高校科研现状具有重要的现实价值。以灰色系统理论为分析工具,以高等学校为研究对象,选取6项高校的R&D投入指标和3项科技产出指标,运用灰色关联分析方法和GM（1,1）找出影响高校科研成果的主要因素。结果表明：在发表科技论文和出版科技著作方面,当前主要是由科技活动人员的时间投入总量决定的,但未来6年将更加聚焦于试验发展研究;在专利授权方面,目前主要是由科技经费决定,未来6年依旧保持这个发展态势,基础研究对专利发明具有重要的影响作用,但试验发展研究在专利产出方面可能会出现资金分配不合理的现象。高校要完善R&D资源投入机制、夯实基础研究和重视创新型师资队伍建设等措施,实现资源合理配置和提高科研成果水平。     

Value added analysis and trend forecasting in the manufacturing industry in Kaliningrad oblast

The article considers the problems of estimating the regional gross value added. A structural and dynamic analysis of value-added trends in the main manufacturing activities has been carried out and their role in the economy of Kaliningrad oblast has been established. New approaches to the industrial policy in the region have been defined based on priority manufacturing activities and mechanisms of an increase in value added.     

创新型企业创新网络构建及其治理研究

由于企业创新资源的稀缺性和有限性,以及创新活动的不确定性,建立创新网络成为企业提高其创新能力的必然选择。本文在企业创新网络构建动因和条件分析的基础上,结合国内外对企业创新网络研究,重点探讨企业创新网络构建和治理,以期能对企业构建创新网络有所启示。     

农业科技资源投入结构现状及发展动态演变分析

以农业科研机构为研究对象,通过分析农业科技人力资源、农业科技财力资源在基础研究、应用研究和试验发展三个科技活动阶段不同分配情况下;在农学、林学、水产学、畜牧兽医学等不同学科领域间分配情况下所引起农业科技产出的可能变动情况,运用核密度估计函数系统测算2005-2015年不同科技活动阶段财力资源的动态演变。结果表明：农学在各学科领域内占有较为明显的主导地位,各阶段农业科技财力整体投入水平均大幅度提高,其中试验发展的涨幅最大,但区域差异明显,东部地区与中部地区增长较大,而东北地区与西部地区呈负增长态势;基础研究阶段整体呈现上涨趋势,东北地区对科技投入影响较大;应用研究阶段各地区以及全国范围整体差异呈现负增长。     

专利视域下青岛市战略性新兴产业发展现状及对策

基于incoPat专利平台，对2011-2021年青岛市战略性新兴产业发明专利开展统计分析，从专利申请授权趋势和生命周期等揭示了青岛市战略性新兴产业发展现状，并对授权发明专利从公开趋势、有效性、申请人、技术领域、区市分布以及转让许可等多维度开展深入分析。结果表明，近10年来青岛市战略性新兴产业专利发展态势持续向好，但专利海外布局意识有待加强；生物、新材料和节能环保产业的专利申请量最多，但研发能力和创新质量有待提升；驻青高校及科研院所在青岛市战略性新兴产业创新发展及成果转化中发挥了重要作用；崂山、黄岛和市南三区的专利创新活动最为活跃，但产业侧重各有不同，而青岛市区市间、产业间专利创新活动仍存在发展不均衡现象。     

Efficiency of Integration Processes: Innovative Method of Evaluation

The article uses a fundamentally new approach to assessing the effectiveness of the integration processes based on the innovative method of the S-times distance analysis of the dynamic series of statistical indicators. The method has been tested on the macroindicators of several integration associations. The results of an analysis and forecast of the key parameters of the countries members of the Eurasian integration, namely, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia have been presented.     

江苏高新区发展创新型经济的研究

在当前资源与环境约束性日趋严峻的背景下,高新区发展创新型经济,实现经济增长由物质投入推动转向创新要素推动是必然趋势.文章从禀赋科教资源优势明显,创新氛围基本形成,自主创新动力机制和能力已基本具备等方面分析江苏省高新区发展创新型经济的有利条件;并研究江苏省高新区发展创新型经济存在的障碍与成因,包括对引进大项目的过度偏好,外资企业比重过大,创新创业服务体系有待完善,软环境和生态环境建设总体滞后等问题.提出推动高新区由开放优势向科技创新优势、向创新型经济发展的对策.     

The Innovation Threshold

Summary This paper discusses a model for analysing the sales of new products. This model accounts for the fact that, even among those companies with permanent R&D activities, a fraction of the firms did not have sales of innovative products over a two-year observation period. We propose a model in which the fixed costs of introduction are a major concern in the decision-making process. We apply a censored regression model, extended by a firm-specific threshold. We use a structural model to estimate the fixed costs of introducing new products to the market, and explain subsequent sales of innovative products. We examine an indicator of innovative output, i.e. the sales of products ‘new to the firm’. We estimate fixed cost thresholds by using data from the Dutch section of the Community Innovation Survey (CIS) of 1998. R&D intensity, competition, and market structure all have a positive impact on the sales of new products. The most important factors that reduce the fixed cost threshold of introduction are product-related R&D investments, R&D subsidies, and knowledge spillovers. We would like to thank Geert Ridder, Alfred Kleinknecht and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and discussion.