Macroeconomic dynamics of the Russian economy in the long term

The article presents the main provisions of the macroeconomic section of the regular long term forecasts of the Institute for Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Science, prepared in 2012. The key idea of the forecast is based on an assessment of the growth potential of the Russian economy. It is necessary for the definition of an economic policy aimed at achieving this potential result in the perspective until 2030.     

Medium-term forecast of the dynamics of the development of the Russian economy

Based on the simulation of medium-term economic dynamics under conditions of high inflation, the article analyzes the effectiveness of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and presents a forecast of economic growth in the near-term outlook (2015–2018) under different scenarios of change in the key interest rate.     

The situation in the Russian economy

This article, written for a Project LINK international conference, looks at the medium-term growth trends of the Russian economy and analyzes the stability potential and crisis points of the prevailing economy reproduction model.The forecasting part examines measures used in three growth scenarios: “economic activism of the state,” “support of business” (both subject to a lasting favourable foreign economic situation), and “adaptive” (for the case of a fall in oil prices). The authors come to the conclusion that in the current situation, a greater growth potential is associated with the scenario of “economic activism of the state,” which envisions, in particular, investment in projects lessening infrastructural constraints on growth.     

Medium-term forecasting of Russian economy using cognitive model

The paper has substantiated the applicability of a cognitive approach to studying and forecasting a resource-dependent economy. The results of the modeling of a medium-term forecast for the Russian economy using a fuzzy cognitive map have been laid out.     

Predictive and analytical investigation of the intersectoral ratios dynamics in the Russian economy real sector

A balance-based econometric model is presented that has been developed for the analysis of the dynamics and structure of the intersectoral relations in the domestic economy; the methodology and results of its use in applied economic calculations are described.     

Convergence and transitional dynamics of China's industrial output: A county-level study using a new framework of distribution dynamics analysis

Many scholars have argued that the huge increase in regional inequality in China can be attributed greatly to the disparity in industrialization. This paper contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence on the transitional dynamics of industrial output by employing a new framework of distribution dynamics analysis, namely, the mobility probability plot (MPP), and a county-level database made up of counties and county-level cities. The new framework can address several inadequacies of the traditional display tools used in the distribution dynamics literature. Stochastic kernel analyses are performed for the nation, the economic zones, and the provinces individually so as to provide an in-depth understanding of the evolution and convergence of industrial output. This study fills the gap in the literature and provides information on mobility of the county-level units, which can greatly aid the policy making process.     

Energy intensity and energy efficiency of the Russian economy: an analysis and forecast

The energy intensity indices of the Russian GDP are presented in a form that allows comparison with similar indicators of other countries. The forecast shows that the energy efficiency of the Russian economy will be approaching that of Canada but will still remain significantly lower by 2010.     

ICT investment and internationalization of the Russian economy

In this paper the influence of ICT investments on the international activities of Russia is analyzed. Firstly, ICT investments are considered as a factor of the international competitiveness of the Russian economy (in comparison with some other countries). Dynamics of both export volumes and openness of national economies are used as the main criteria for comparison. Then, the role of ICT in the development of international activities on the regional level is analysed. Cluster analysis is performed for the set of data on the Russian regions. Finally, the accession of Russia to the WTO is considered in the context of the development of the ICT sector and the international activities of the Russian economy.     

促进贵州省经济增长方式转变的财政支出结构分析

本文首先对影响经济增长方式转变的因素进行了理论分析,然后应用贵州省1998～2006年财政支出统计资料,对财政支出的结构进行了分析。研究结果表明,财政对经济建设的投入较高,对农业、教育、科技投入不足,经济建设支出内部结构也不尽合理,财政支出结构的不合理对促进经济增长方式的转变不利。     

Application of the interindustry method for studying the factors of the output dynamics in the branches of the real economy

This work presents a methodological approach to the analysis of factors affecting the formation of the production dynamics in the real sector of the Russian economy based on the interindustry balances (IIBs). The conceptual feature of the developed technique is the integration of IIB tools and the instruments of production functions. The application of the developed method in investigations into the performance of RF industries in the 1990s and 2000s made it possible to obtain several fundamentally new scientific results, including those connected with estimating the scale of impact made by the technological factor and the factor of productive capacity utilization.     

中俄经贸合作对策研究

2004年中俄贸易额突破了200亿美元的大关,这意味着中俄两国的经济贸易合作进入了一个新的历史阶段,驶入了加速发展的快车道.在这种新的形势下,我们应该抓住机遇,积极利用原有的基础,并创造各种有利条件,选择合理的途径,进一步开拓俄罗斯市场,继续为扩大中俄经贸合作的规模、深化经贸合作水平而努力.     

Employment and effective employment in the Russian economy

This article deals with the problems of measuring and forecasting employment and labor productivity in the Russian economy. A necessity of forming employment calculation indices, which would to a greater degree reflect the real labor costs by industry for 1991–2010, is discovered. A method of calculating alternative (conditional effective) employment is offered.     

Socio-demographic risks of the long-term development of the Russian economy

Key risks and threats of the long-term development of the Russian economy, originating from the social sphere, are revealed and analyzed. The article focuses on human capital development and replenishment problems, as well as on the social effects of these problems on education, health conditions, labor migration, and pension provision.     

The crisis in the context of the present and the future of the Russian economy

This paper investigates the decline in imports of most important types of investment and consumer goods in 2012–2015 and the changes in the geography of imports, which affect the innovation potential of investments. The impact of these changes on the current standard of living of the population and the future modernization of the economy has been shown. The quantitative assessment of the impact of sanctions has been provided. Directions of competitive import substitution have been formulated.     

The population of the Russian Federation: Solvency dynamics and depopulation

The authors use regression models to explain the main reasons for a fall in the birth-rate and growth in mortality in the Russian Federation. They determine funds required to overcome the natural loss of the population. Sources for mobilizing these funds are indicated, as are inflation-free ways of their realization     

Scenario analysis of potential spatial transformations of the Russian economy: Procedural approach and empirical estimates

The article analyzes factors, conditions and methods of identifying lasting spatial variations in Russia’s socioeconomic development. It continues studies published in papers [1, 2]. Possible effects of parameters and assumptions of different scenarios of Russian economic development on the spatial structure of the Russian economy are discussed. Quantitative estimates of structural shifts that occurred between 2000 and 2004 are presented.     

Inflation and problems of balanced development of the Russian economy

Problems of inflation from the perspective of balanced economic development of the Russian Federation are considered. The consequences of policy decisions taken in the financial sector and real economy are analyzed based on actual data. The necessity of carrying out such an analysis at the stage of developing policy decisions is rationalized.     

On the role of the fuel-and-energy complex in the Russian economy

The role of the fuel-and-energy complex (FEC) in the Russian economy has been described and A quantitative assessment of the impact of key parameters of the fuel-and-energy complex sectors on the volume and dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators has been provided. In particular, the sensitivity of the GDP growth to changes in energy exports has been analyzed.     

Innovation-technological development of the Russian economy: Prospects and conditions

The present state of the innovation-technological potential of Russia and the feasibility of its use for modernizing the national economy are discussed. Alternative strategies of technological development of the economy are validated, the merits of a starting resource-innovation strategy are described, and the stages of its transformation into an innovation-technological strategy are proposed. Problem situations are identified, possible solutions are proposed, and conditions for changeover to an innovation-technological strategy of Russia’s economic development are formed.     

Forecasting recruitment needs of the Russian economy: Qualitative aspects

The article presents a new mechanism for translating labor market’s needs to the vocational education system that promotes the provision of long-term personnel requirements within the framework of the implementation of competence-based educational programs.