Estimating output gaps in Asia: A cross-country study

We estimate output gaps for Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Taiwan, using the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, a band-pass (BP) filter, the Beveridge–Nelson (BN) filter and unobservable-components (UC) techniques. Three conclusions are notable. First, the gaps resulting from the BN filter, which is “one-sided,” differ from the other filters that are “two-sided.” Second, the UC approach has the advantage that it allows confidence bands for the gap to be constructed and that it yields estimates of the growth rate of potential. Third, the HP, UC, and BP gaps are similar. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18 (1) (2004) 115–136.     

Measuring Potential Output for the South African Economy: Embedding Information About the Financial Cycle

Borio et al. show that information embedded in the financial cycle can serve to improve measures of potential output and output gaps. They show that incorporating information on the financial cycle yields measures of potential output and output gaps for the United States, United Kingdom and Spain that are estimated more precisely and are more robust in real time. With its well‐developed financial markets and relatively open capital markets, the South African economy is potentially susceptible to the build‐up of the sort of financial imbalances that characterised the recent financial crisis. Using the framework developed in Borio et al., a finance‐neutral measure of the output gap is estimated for South Africa. The traditional Hodrick–Prescott filter is extended to incorporate information on credit and property prices. Including financial cycle proxies result in output gaps that are estimated more precisely and are more robust to data revisions and the arrival of new data points (i.e. estimated output gaps are more robust in real time), while also reflecting the impact of financial variables on economic activity. As such, the estimated finance‐neutral output gap seems to represent a more appropriate measure on which to base monetary policy decisions.     

Revisiting the empirical existence of the Phillips curve for India

This paper revisits the empirical existence of the Phillips curve in the Indian context. To estimate the Phillips curve we need two variables: inflation and the output gap. In the case of India, incorrect measurement of both variables causes much difficulty in estimating the Phillips curve. We use a non-linear Kalman filter approach to estimate the output gap and find that the Kalman filter estimate captures all the dynamics of the economy. Our results show that after taking supply shocks into consideration, there is clear evidence as to the existence of the Phillips curve in India for recent years.     

论中国可接受的产出缺口区间与宏观经济走势

2008年中国经济增长步伐明显放缓,中国经济已步入收缩期。在全球金融动荡的背景下,分析中国当前的宏观经济形势与近期走势、及时调整经济政策具有重要的现实意义。文章构建状态空间模型进行Kalman滤波,估算我国1978—2008年的潜在产出与产出缺口,分析我国经济长期增长趋势、可接受的产出缺口区间与可接受的经济增长区间,据此对2009年经济走势进行预测并提出相应的政策建议。     

Toolkit for the Input–Output Analysis of the Performance of Russian Economy in 1991–2013

Input–output analysis has been used to study the impact made by microstructure factors such as final demand and the matrix of input–output coefficients on the performance of the total gross output of the Russian Federation in 1990–2013. The contribution of these factors to the economic dynamics during the transformational recession in 1991–1998 and the subsequent restoration growth of 1999–2013 have been numerically estimated.     

Output volatility of five crisis-affected East Asia economies

A decade has passed since the Asian financial crisis (AFC) in 1997, and attention is drawn to the output performance of the crisis-affected economies in East Asia. Using the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, this paper examines the growth volatility of GDP, its components and the stock market of five East Asia economies of Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Chinese Taipei and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR). Empirical evidences based on quarterly data show that output volatility for both Singapore and South Korea has increased after the AFC. For the GDP components, trade is a major factor in lowering GDP volatility in Chinese Taipei. The Hong Kong SAR economy has experienced an increase/decrease in the volatility of investment/private consumption. Among the five East Asia economies, government intervention is obvious in Singapore. The stock markets in both Hong Kong SAR and Chinese Taipei showed stronger ability in absorbing shocks.     

基于FFP可调滤波器的FBG解调系统设计

提出并实现了一种基于FFP可调滤波器的FBG解调系统。该系统通过PC104嵌入式系统控制的D/A输出信号,作为可调滤波器的控制信号,对光纤上的所有光栅连续扫描以实现波长信号的解调。该解调系统扫描带宽50nm,以10Hz频率进行扫描,可以得到稳定的测量信号。     

Estimating the Output Gap in a Changing Economy

Univariate filters used in output gap estimation are subject to criticism as being purely statistical and having no economic content. The information content of the output gap measures estimated by standard multivariate filtering techniques, on the other hand, can be distorted because of the possibly unrealistic restriction that system parameters stay constant over time. In this study, we seek to address these shortcomings by proposing an output gap estimation method that takes into account changing economic relations. We employ a nonlinear time series framework along with the extended Kalman filter, in which economic content is used by inflation and output gap dynamics and the parameters are allowed to be time varying. We use the Turkish economy as a laboratory to show that our method provides useful results, both in terms of the properties of output gap estimates and for the assessment of change in macroeconomic dynamics.     

The use of input–output tables to forecast the effects of demand stimulation state policy

The paper discusses the possibility of evaluating the effectiveness of the government demand stimulation for industrial products based on the input–output model. The study aims to simulate the impact of public policies based on a simple calculation using open data on the input–output balance.     

How Does the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Affect the Restructuring of Global Value Chains?

This paper quantifies the way in which the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) affects the restructuring of global value chains (GVCs). It incorporates an input– output structure into a general equilibrium model, highlighting important differences between intermediates and final goods. Using tariff reduction schedules for the RCEP agreement and Asian Development Bank Multi-Region Input–Output database, it evaluates the impact of the RCEP's tariff cuts on vertical specialization and the GVC position index of members. It shows that the RCEP significantly increased vertical specialization and the weighted average number of stages for members for primary factors of production and final consumption, which led to more complex and longer production chains. This was mainly due to the trade creation in intermediates imported from member countries and those outside it. This is an important finding, distinct from traditional trade models without an input–output structure.     

M701F4燃气轮机进气罩壳滤网冲洗机器人系统研究与应用——以京燃热电厂为例

为解决在恶劣天气（雨、雪、雾、霾）及杨柳絮多发时段下M701F4燃气轮机进气罩壳滤网易堵塞,进而导致燃机出力受限或触发机组RB及跳闸问题。以京燃热电厂为例,基于机电一体控制技术及多传感器检测技术,设计研发M701F4燃气轮机进气罩壳滤网冲洗机器人系统。该冲洗机器人系统通过DCS系统可控制轨道机器人实现水、气组合清洗,解决了滤网杂质堵塞问题,延长了粗滤滤芯使用寿命,降低了人工成本,同时通过喷雾冷却,一定程度降低压气机入口进气温度,提高燃机出力。     

A state‐level analysis of the economic impacts of medical tourism in Malaysia

In Malaysia, a country that ranks among the world's most recognised medical tourism destinations, medical tourism is identified as a potential economic growth engine for both medical and non‐medical sectors. A state‐level analysis of economic impacts is important, given differences between states in economic profiles and numbers, origins, and expenditure of medical tourists. We applied input–output (I–O) analysis, based on state‐specific I–O data and disaggregated foreign patient data. The analysis includes nine of Malaysia's states. In 2007, these states were visited by 341,288 foreign patients, who generated MYR1,313.4 m ($372.3 m) output, MYR468.6 m ($132.8 m) in value added, and over 19,000 jobs. Impacts related to non‐medical expenditure are more substantial than impacts related to medical expenditure, and indirect impacts are a substantial part of total impacts. We discuss management and policy responses and formulate recommendations for data collection.     

Input–output coefficients in the evaluation of a scientific and technological component of the macrostructural forecasting

Approaches to the quantitative evaluation of technological development parameters based on input–output coefficients of the input–output table and possibilities of their application in the estimation of quantitative characteristics of scientific and technological forecasts have been considered. This work is a continuation of studies related to the assessment of the influence of the technological coefficient on the economic dynamics.     

A new study of the Chinese regions in a neoclassical framework of models of growth

This study tests economic growth and convergence across the Chinese provinces during the period 1981–2005 based on augmented neoclassical growth models where land is included as a production input. A positive steady-state growth of per capita output cannot be sustained if the population growth rate or the output elasticity of land is sufficiently high. The study implements a panel data approach and shows that land may have an output elasticity as high as 1/3, suggesting that the natural environment indeed poses an important constraint on China's economic growth. In this study of the Chinese provinces, the panel data approach has implied much higher rates of conditional convergence in per capita output, compared with cross-section estimations.     

Understanding the inflation–output nexus for China

In this article we examine several hypotheses relating to output and inflation dynamics in China. The hypotheses tests are based on the exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model of Nelson [Nelson, D. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset return: A new approach, Econometrica, 59, 347–370]. Our findings suggest that Chinese output–inflation behaviour is consistent with the hypothesis that increased inflation uncertainty lowers average inflation; the hypothesis that inflation volatility reduces economic growth and the hypothesis that higher output volatility increases economic growth. However, we find no support for the hypothesis that higher output volatility increases the average inflation rate.     

THE SOUTH AFRICAN PHILLIPS CURVE: HOW APPLICABLE IS THE GORDON MODEL?

Is there a Phillips curve relationship present in South Africa and if so, what form does it take? Traditionally the method to establish whether or not there is a relationship between the output gap and the change in inflation is merely to regress the latter on the former. This yields the well‐known augmented Phillips curve. However, Gordon has argued that this specification of the Phillips curve produces biased results. Instead, he puts forward and estimates successfully for several industrialised countries his so‐called triangular model that tests for hysteresis and inertia in the behaviour of inflation, as well as the impact on inflation of changes in the output level. This paper considers whether or not Gordon's triangle model is applicable to South Africa, i.e. are hysteresis and inertia present in South Africa? In addition, in an attempt to find a better estimation of the output gap, the paper also experiments with alternative ways to estimate the long‐run output level, including the standard HP‐filter, as well as a production function approach.     

Manufacturing Sector Growth: A Case Study of Singapore

Abstract

This paper attempts to highlight some of the challenges faced by the Singaporean economy in general and the manufacturing sector in particular. Statistical analysis is used to demonstrate the role of human capital and foreign investment on manufacturing output for the period 1980–2004. The paper shows that a long-run relationship exists among the real manufacturing output per-unit of employment, real foreign investment per-unit of employment and real human capital per-unit of employment. The paper also provides time series forecasts for the growth rates of real output, productivity and investment in Singaporean manufacturing sector.     

Domestic value added and employment generated by Chinese exports: A quantitative estimation

We develop an input–output methodology to estimate how Chinese exports affected the country's total domestic value added (DVA) and employment in the years 2002 and 2007. For every US$1000 dollar of Chinese exports in 2007 (2002), DVA and employment are estimated to be US$591 (US$466) and 0.096 (0.242) person-year, respectively. To implement these estimations, we use hitherto unpublished Chinese government data to construct several completely new datasets, including an input–output table with separate input–output and employment-output coefficients for processing exports, non-processing exports, and output for domestic use. We hypothesize that, in comparison with the export sector, China's domestic sector would be relatively autarkic due to China's history of central planning. We expect that exports would generate less DVA and employment than output for domestic use. Processing exports, which are highly dependent on imported inputs, would similarly generate less DVA and employment than non-processing exports. Our findings support these expectations. For both 2002 and 2007, the DVA and employment effects of domestic final demand were higher than those of non-processing exports, which were in turn higher than those of processing exports. However, with the progress of economic reforms, we found that the total DVAs of exports and domestic final demand have converged from 2002 to 2007.     

Empirical Evidence of Productivity Growth in Tunisian Agriculture: 1961–2000

Abstract: This paper investigates the patterns of productivity growth in Tunisian agriculture during the period 1961–2000. Results indicate that output growth in Tunisian agriculture was high over the whole period of investigation. During the 1981–90 period, average output grew at an impressive rate exceeding 6 per cent. Over the whole period, capital was the most important contributor to output growth and labour was found to be the least significant contributor to economic growth. Total factor productivity contribution to output growth decreased from over 4 per cent in both the 1961–70 and 1981–90 periods to less than 3 per cent in both the 1971–80 and 1991–2000 periods. On average, productivity growth increased at an annual rate of 3.6 per cent.     

Rebalancing China's Economy: Domestic and International Implications

This paper considers interactions between China's domestic and external imbalances and their global implications. We present scenarios detailing how a rebalancing of China's growth pattern from investment‐driven growth towards more consumption‐driven growth may occur in practice. Using input–output tables for 2012, we illustrate the knife‐edged nature of Chinese rebalancing, the linkages between expenditure‐side and production‐side rebalancing, and how an internal rebalancing could exacerbate external imbalances. A policy implication for China is that for rebalancing to be fast, consumption must be exceptionally resilient and the efficiency of investment must increase sharply. If rebalancing is too slow, the capital‐to‐output ratio will rise to potentially unsustainable levels and consumption will fail to attain levels of contemporary upper middle‐income economies by 2030. Global input–output tables (1995–2011) suggest that the patterns of Chinese rebalancing considered in our scenarios may generate substantial headwinds for exports to China by its trading partners.