Profitability and Efficiency in the U.S. Life Insurance Industry

This study explores the relationship between cost inefficiency and profitability in the U.S. life insurance industry. Earnings have particular importance to life insurance companies because earnings and capital determine the viability of the insurer. Since the life insurance industry is mature and highly competitive, cost efficiency may be the main driver of profitability. We derive cost efficiency using the stochastic frontier (SF) method allowing the mean inefficiency to vary with organizational form and the outputs. In addition, the estimation of the cost efficiency measure takes into account the underlying accounting concepts that generate the data and, consequently, the product mix (long-duration policies vs. short-duration policies) to avoid distorted estimates. Our results suggest that cost inefficiency in the life insurance industry is substantial relative to earnings, and that inefficiency is negatively associated with profitability measures such as the return on equity. The analysis of inefficiency and organizational form suggest that stock (shareholder-owned) companies are as efficient and profitable as mutual (policyholder-owned) companies.     

The impact of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley act on the financial services industry

This paper examines the impact of Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act across three main sectors of the financial services industry: commercial banks, insurance companies, and brokerage firms, taking account of the wealth effect associated with the announcement. We find that the law has a differential impact across the financial services industry. All three industries have gained due to this law with commercial banks benefiting most, followed by the insurance industry. Further, the results show that larger firms benefited more in both the banking and insurance industries and exposure to systematic risk was reduced for all sectors of the financial services industry after this regulation passed.     

The Information Content of Concurrently Announced Earnings, Cash Dividends, and Stock Dividends: An Investigation of the Chinese Stock Market

The firms listed on China's stock market are less than ten years old and to date there has been relatively little research on the usefulness of their accounting disclosures for investors. This study focuses on the information content of annual earnings and dividend announcements made by listed Chinese companies. Earnings, cash dividends, and stock dividends are announced concurrently in China and so this allows for tests of their information usefulness and of the interactions between the three signals. Based on a data set of up to 1,232 announcements, we find that unexpected earnings, proxied by earnings changes, are positively related to abnormal returns. Thus, earnings are used by investors in setting market prices. Stock dividends corroborate or attenuate the earnings signal. If the sign of the unexpected stock dividend (increase, decrease) is the same as the sign of the unexpected earnings, then the earnings signal is stronger. If the signs are opposite, the earnings signal is weaker. Unexpected cash dividends have little impact on the earnings signal. Stock dividends per se have a small association with stock returns. In contrast, cash dividends have no discernible association with stock returns and this is consistent with dividend irrelevance arguments. Our results are robust across a number of sensitivity tests.     

Forecast persistence and clustering: Additional evidence

This study intends to address the persistence of the bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts and clustering effects of time, industry classification, and stock exchange listing. Following Kwag and Shrieves (2006), I use a look-back portfolio formation method that captures salient features of analysts’ past forecasting behavior and form quintile portfolios that describe the range of analysts’ forecasting behavior. Consistent with Kwag and Shrieves, empirical evidence suggests that analyst optimism and pessimism tend to persist. Time, industry classification, and stock exchange listing do not seem to influence such phenomenon. (JEL G14, G19)     

Finance Sector Wage Growth and the Role of Human Capital

We reveal the pervasiveness of the finance sector pay premium, across all OECD countries, as well as all sub‐sectors and occupations within the UK financial sector. Moreover, the UK premium has continued to rise despite the financial crisis. We show that earnings increase faster with value added in certain sub‐sectors of finance, compared to the general economy, providing evidence of profit‐sharing in these sub‐sectors. Other possible explanations, such as workers with higher qualifications or better cognitive skills, or technological change and differing job characteristics, can explain some of the finance sector pay premium, but are not sufficient on their own.     

Risk spillover analysis of China’s financial sectors based on a new GARCH copula quantile regression model

This study employs a new GARCH copula quantile regression model to estimate the conditional value at risk for systemic risk spillover analysis. To be specific, thirteen copula quantile regression models are derived to capture the asymmetry and nonlinearity of the tail dependence between financial returns. Using Chinese stock market data over the period from January 2007 to October 2020, this paper investigates the risk spillovers from the banking, securities, and insurance sectors to the entire financial system. The empirical results indicate that (i) three financial sectors contribute significantly to the financial system, and the insurance sector displays the largest risk spillover effects on the financial system, followed by the banking sector and subsequently the securities sector; (ii) the time-varying risk spillovers are much larger during the global financial crisis than during the periods of the banking liquidity crisis, the stock market crash and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results provide important implications for supervisory authorities and portfolio managers who want to maintain the stability of China’s financial system and optimize investment portfolios.     

Connectedness and risk spillovers in China’s stock market: A sectoral analysis

This paper shows how sectors in the Chinese stock market are connected and investigates risk spillovers across these sectors. Using graph theory and a recently developed time series technique, we are able to identify the systemically important sector in the market and the patterns of risk spillovers across sectors over time. Unlike standard econometric modeling, graph theory enables us to approach this question in a more reader-friendly way. The empirical results show that Industrial sector plays a central role and should thus be considered the systemically most important sector in the Chinese stock market. The spillover structure is found to be time-varying. While Industrial sector dominates the system for most of the time, other sectors such as Consumer Discretionary sector also occasionally appear as the central sector. Our empirical results also indicate that the simple correlation-based approach can produce equally useful information as more advanced econometric models.     

Upside/Downside spillovers between oil and Chinese stock sectors: From the global financial crisis to global pandemic

This paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak, recent oil price fall, and both global and European financial crises on dependence structure and asymmetric risk spillovers between crude oil and Chinese stock sectors. Using time-varying symmetric and asymmetric copula functions and the conditional Value at Risk measure, we provide evidence of positive tail dependence in most sectors using copula and conditional Value-at-Risk techniques. We can see the average dependence between oil and industries during the oil crisis. Moreover, we find strong evidence of bidirectional risk spillovers for all oil-sector pairs. The intensity of risk spillovers from oil to all stock sectors varies across sectors. The risk spillovers from sectors to oil are substantially larger than those from oil to sectors during COVID-19. Furthermore, the return spillover is time varying and sensitive to external shocks. The spillover strengths are higher during COVID-19 than financial and oil crises. Finally, oil do not exhibit neither hedge nor safe-haven characteristics irrespective of crisis periods.     

Information flows within and across sectors in Chinese stock markets

We examine the patterns of information flows within and across sectors of the two Chinese stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen during 1994–2001. Using the generalized forecast error variance decomposition, we find a high degree of interdependence, indicating that the sectors are highly integrated and sector prices reflect information from other sectors. Industry is the most influential sector in both exchanges, while Finance in Shenzhen is the least integrated with other sectors. Implications of the findings for investors and policymakers are also discussed.     

我国汽车保险的统计分析

文中通过对某保险公司某季度赔付情况统计分析,得出转变观念、建立新的车险业务发展战略,加强车险经营管理及借鉴发达国家经验与国家经济发展保持同步,完善保险各方面服务对国内保险行业是很必要的。而作为车辆使用者,了解目前国内当前车险种类与行情,合理投保也是很重要的。     

Liquidity,earnings management,and stock expected returns

This paper examines the relationships among liquidity, earnings management, and stock expected returns by using a sample of Chinese listed firms to investigate 22,022 firm–year observations from 1998 to 2018. Our study reveals that an increase in stock liquidity is associated with a decrease in the degree of earnings management. This result is robust to the use of alternative measures when endogeneity concerns are controlled for. Moreover, the findings indicate that the stock liquidity component of earnings management is positively associated with future stock returns in Chinese firms. Our results reveal that the stock liquidity component of short-termism in managerial decisions plays a critical role in determining future stock returns.     

证券分析师业绩预测和投资评级准确性实证分析

文章以国内证券分析师业的业绩预测和投资评级为研究对象,从投资评级的准确性、投资建议赢利性、业绩预测误差及其来源等几个方面进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,证券分析师的投资建议无论在短期还是中长期均不能产生显著的超额收益,业绩预测误差是导致投资评级失误的原因之一,而业绩预测误差主要源于分析师对公司层面信息的错误判断。     

Analyst Following,Institutional Investors and Pricing of Future Earnings: Evidence from Korea

This paper examines the role of sophisticated investors in pricing future earnings in Korea. Using the future earnings response coefficient (FERC) model, we test the effect of analyst following and institutional ownership on the informativeness of stock returns for future earnings. We find that the informativeness of stock returns for future earnings, measured as the FERC, increases with the analyst following and institutional ownership. We also investigate how the recently introduced Regulation Fair Disclosure in Korea affects the informativeness of stock returns for future earnings and its relation with analyst following and institutional ownership. The results show that the regulation decreases the FERC in general and its relation with analyst following, suggesting that analysts' superior ability is impaired after the regulation.     

Auditor Industry Specialization,Political Economy and Earnings Quality: Some Cross‐Country Evidence

Using cross‐country data, we evaluate the impact of investor protection on the association between earnings quality and audits by industry specialists. Our findings show that the positive association between industry specialist auditors and earnings quality as documented in the literature is affected by the political electoral system, which reflects investor protection rights in a country. We document that audits by industry specialists are associated with higher earnings quality in countries with the proportional electoral system, reflecting weak investor protection. Our results also confirm Kwon et al.'s findings that overall there is a positive association between earnings quality and audits by industry specialists in countries with weak legal enforcement. Our findings, however, indicate that Kwon et al.'s results are valid only for countries with weak investor protection reflected by the proportional electoral system and not for countries with strong investor protection reflected by the majoritarian electoral system. These findings thus suggest that higher earnings quality of firms audited by industry specialists across countries can especially be expected when investor protection is low and legal enforcement is also weak. In addition, our research suggests that future cross‐country studies could explicitly consider the role of the political electoral system of a country in evaluating corporate governance, management and accounting issues.     

Analysis of the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China’s stock market based on complex networks

This paper analyzes the impact of the Sino-US trade friction incident in 2018 on China's stock market by using the complex network methods. Firstly, we divide the Sino-US trade friction incident in 2018 into four research periods. Based on the GARCH-BEKK model and the Planar Maximum Filter Graph (PMFG) algorithm, the volatility spillover network between China's stock market sectors and the stock price correlation network of China's stock market corresponding to the above four research periods are constructed. Next, from the perspective of sectors in stock market, we use various network centrality indicators to build a systematic importance comprehensive evaluation index of industry sectors in the stock market through the principal component analysis method, to explore the impact of the Sino-US trade friction incident on the risk spillover effects of sectors in China's stock market. From the perspective of the overall stock market, we analyze the impact of Sino-US trade friction incident on the overall stability of the stock market through calculating the network topology indicators and conducting simulation experiments. Finally, the main factors affecting the stability mechanism of China's stock market are studied through the probit model. The results show that: (1) The risk spillover effect of various sectors in China's stock market changes significantly in different periods of Sino-US trade friction, and there are obvious cyclical rotation effects among various sectors (2) When some weighted stocks in the stock market abnormally fluctuate or suffer targeted shocks, the China's stock market's ability to maintain stability is weak, and the Sino-US trade friction will reduce the stability of China's stock market, and the higher the intensity of trade friction incident is, the more obvious the impact of the incident is. (3) The important factors that affect the abnormal fluctuations in China's stock market include four types of indicators: the stock market network structure, the fluctuation of important international stock indexes, the fluctuation of commodity prices in the international market, and the domestic macroeconomic indicators. This study provides a reference for China's financial regulatory authorities to conduct macro-prudential management, control systemic risks, and maintain the stability of financial market.     

Agency costs in the banking industry: An examination of ownership behavior,leverage and dividend policies

This paper examines agency theory arguments in the banking industry by analyzing the effect of four variables that proxy for agency costs—earnings volatility, managers' portfolio diversification losses, bank size, and standard deviation of bank equity returns—on the three financial policy variables of managerial stock ownership, leverage, and dividend yield. It is one of the first studies that examines the determination of financial policy variables, in light of agency concerns, in the banking industry. The study examines the largest 104 U.S. banks during the period 1985–1989. Evidence suggests that bank size and a measure of the managers' portfolio diversification opportunity set affect the bank's level of managerial stock ownership, leverage and dividends.     

IFRS and Secrecy: Assessing Accounting Value Relevance Across Africa

We examine the value relevance of accounting across several African countries and test whether IFRS improved the value association of earnings and equity book values. We report a stronger valuation association between accounting and stock prices in African countries classified as having a secrecy culture. This increases after IFRS and more so for earnings. On the other hand, IFRS induced a stronger increase in the book value coefficient in the less secretive and more developed South African market. We surmise that the more conceptual focus of IFRS induced an increased demand for higher‐quality accounting professionals, which had a filtering‐down effect of improving quality information flow and breaking down the secrecy culture. Our research highlights the diverse impacts of IFRS and the role of culture, asset markets and accounting professionalism, in driving the relevance of accounting components across Africa.     

中国A股上市公司股权分置改革前后盈余管理实证研究

本文以截至2005年底沪市和深市宣布进行股权分置改革的A股上市公司为样本,对股权分置改革过程中的盈余管理行为进行了研究。研究结果表明:股权分置改革方案出台的前一季度,股改公司的操控性应计利润显著为负;股改完成的后一季度,股改公司的操控性应计利润显著为正;股改后几批的公司比前几批的公司有更显著的操控性应计利润。进一步的研究表明,沪市的股改公司比深市的股改公司有更显著的操控性应计利润,低对价股改公司比高对价股改公司有更显著的操控性应计利润。     

Motives and consequences of IPOs in cold periods

We analyze the motives and long-term stock price performance of firms that pursue IPOs in cold IPO periods. We find that firms are more likely to engage in an IPO during a cold period when their earnings are relatively high and are expected to decline in the future. We also find that IPO firms during a cold period are more likely to have managed their earnings prior to the IPO. Furthermore, we find that cold IPO firms experience significantly weaker stock price performance than hot IPO firms, and results are robust to different criteria for defining hot and cold IPO periods, different measures of stock price performance, and different investment holding periods. We find that investment opportunities, the backing of a venture capitalist, and an increase in earnings in the year of the IPO lead to significantly higher long term stock price performance of IPO firms. Our multivariate models confirm the adverse cold IPO period effect on stock price performance even after controlling for the IPO motives and the firm's earnings performance. Our results also hold within the post-Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) era.     

Evidence of EC financial reporting practice harmonization

This paper provides new evidence on the information content of losses in the relation between stock returns and annual accounting earnings. Consistent with earlier US evidence, accounting losses are not significantly related to stock returns in Finland. Moreover, it is shown that the different methods used to measure earnings in Finland affect the frequency of losses, substantially altering the estimated return-earnings relation. The results suggest that earnings adjusted in accordance with the recommendations of the Finnish Committee for Corporate Analysis are not more useful than the unadjusted reported earnings in explaining stock returns in Finland.