环境约束下农村消费模式转型探讨

随着世界经济进入周期性调整,中国的经济增长模式将逐步从投资拉动型转变为消费拉动型,农村消费市场的潜能将随着国家拉动内需政策的启动而开启.财政部、商务部"家电下乡"惠农政策,金融危机影响下大批农民返乡,带动了农村消费扩大,特别是耐用消费品消费的扩大.农村在消费拓展过程中面临的环境约束效应将日益强化.作为发展中国家,中国在发展中绝不能走发达国家经历的"先发展,后治理"的老路,农村消费模式转型已经箭在弦上.     

当前国内消费形势与增进我国消费的政策建议

本文首先对我国当前的消费形势进行了总体分析，接着针对上述问题，提出了一系列增进我国消费的政策建议，包括：构建中国的消费政策体系，加快社会保障制度建设，增强居民的消费信心，切实增加居民收入，促使消费者转变消费观念，加快推进消费信贷等。     

如何看待中国贫困人口的消费

中国贫困人口的消费与贫困标准及消费标准密切相关。政府可以根据消费标准制定及实施中国贫困人口的消费政策。中国的特殊国情,决定了应优先解决贫困人口的消费问题。我们应正确地引导中国贫困人口的消费。     

基于经济增长的中国最优消费规模:1978—2006

中国长期实行"重投资、轻消费"的政策,消费率一直偏低。以限制消费为代价的经济增长不仅无法实现社会福利最大化和居民效用最大化,而且也是不可持续的。消费不足导致经济增长乏力,然而消费过度会导致投资不足从而阻碍经济增长,因此经济中存在最优的消费规模。在检验消费规模和经济增长关系的基础上,建立消费的内生增长模型,利用1978—2006年间29年的经验数据,求得中国消费率的最优值为66.46%,据以提出扩大消费以扩大内需、促进经济增长的政策建议。     

中国的汽车消费市场和消费环境

随着中国改革开放的推进和经济的高速增长 ,中国居民收入大幅度增加 ,中国已经发展成为全球最具潜力的汽车消费市场。从消费者的消费特征来看 ,目前中国汽车消费仍然处于较低购买力水平的初级阶段 ,但消费理性和个性化要求明显增加。汽车的消费环境是制约中国汽车消费和汽车产业发展的重要因素 ,道路、停车、能源供应等硬件环境以及汽车消费政策、包括汽车金融服务在内的汽车服务体系、汽车消费权益保护的法律机制等 ,成为阻碍汽车消费需求实现的层层障碍 ,目前把这种潜在的需求转化成为现实需求是促进中国经济增长的重要举措。     

收入差异,利率和消费

改革前后 ,中国国民经济波动中 ,“抑制消费”、“消费膨胀”、“消费早熟”、“市场疲软”等问题都不断地提到了消费的变动 ,这些问题引起了经济理论争论与政策制定的差异 ,当前消费持续的低迷更是把消费问题推到了理论与实践政策操作的前沿。本文将从理论和实践两个方面对消费加以分析 ,从而提出适合中国国情的消费政策建议。一、问题的提出有关消费的理论和经验研究在国外已经研究的很深入了 ,国内介绍和翻译的作品有很多 ,包括凯恩斯的“短期边际消费倾向递减规律”、弗里德曼的“持久性收入”假说、莫迪哥里安尼的“生命周期假说”、杜…     

新消费与新消费城市：现状、特征和趋势——基于中国代表性城市新消费发展的调查研究

中央明确提出,要积极发挥“新消费”引领作用,加快培育形成新供给、新动力。新消费是指顺应消费品质体验升级趋势,以数字技术和新媒介为支撑,创新产品和服务的提供内容、消费场景及满足方式,注重消费者的互动反馈,精准匹配消费者物理需求与情绪价值的消费。文章基于中国代表性城市新消费发展的实地调查,研究发现：（1）现阶段中国新消费规模持续扩大,业态场景丰富多样,人群覆盖各年龄段“悦己”消费者,地域分布集中于一线和新一线城市,风险投资态度由青睐转向审慎。（2）在微观层面,新消费品牌具有市场细分度高、互动社交感强、数智化程度深、人才基础厚、先走“流量”再求“长红”等显著特征。（3）未来中国新消费发展将呈现更加注重消费者互动体验和价值共创、产品和服务内容回应民生刚需、数字建设和智慧管理持续深化、民族品牌国际化和商业友善化等典型趋势。（4）新消费城市具有创新创意人才集聚、产业链供应链体系完善、支持引导政策有力、文化开放包容或独具特色等多重共性特征。新时代促进新消费发展,需着力完善新消费产业生态体系。文章为理解中国新消费提供了基本发展事实和特征趋势研判,为新消费品牌企业和城市新消费发展以及相关政策制定提供了重...     

缩小收入差距 扩大国内需求

消费不足影响经济增长,宏观经济政策的作用有限,收入差距的扩大直接影响了消费增加,抑制了经济增长。就中国目前状况而言,缩小收入差距已是当务之急。     

消费文化重构视角下扩大绿色消费需求的传媒对策分析

金融危机背景下,中国出口导向型战略面临巨大挑战,扩大内需对保持我国经济持续增长具有重要意义。然而,我国居民低水平的消费率制约我国扩大内需的宏观调控政策效果的发挥。儒家思想下,保守谨慎的消费文化在我国低消费率中扮演着重要角色,传媒在消费文化重构中发挥着关键性的作用。因此探索消费文化重构视角下扩大绿色消费需求的传媒对策,消解儒家文化对消费的深度抑制,为扩大内需的政策创新提供一个新的视角与思路。     

消费安全与扩大内需

内需不足是当前影响中国经济增长的一个重要因素。内需不足的产生有经济环境、体制、政策等多方面的原因，但消费市场的缺陷也是一个重要原因。欺骗性消费、强制性消费、伤害性消费等现象的存在，使居民产生了消费恐惧症或消费厌恶症，影响了居民的消费心理。因此，扩大内需的重要内容，就是要采取有力措施整顿消费市场，确保消费安全，增强居民的消费信心。     

地区开放因素对我国城镇居民消费影响的实证分析

1999年以来,我国加快了改革开放和建立社会主义市场经济体制的步伐,经济进入高速发展时期,居民消费对市场的导向作用日益增强,通过启动消费拉动经济增长成为了社会关注的焦点。由于我国地域辽阔、地区间资源分布不平衡,对外开放水平与经济发展水平的差距较大,使得居民在消费水平和消费结构上存在很大的差异。因此研究地区差异对居民消费水平以及消费结构的影响,对于进一步开拓国内市场,缓解国内市场需求不足有着积极的作用。本文分别从消费水平和消费结构两个角度来研究地区对外开放水平的差异对我国城镇居民消费支出的影响。     

Product Procurement: A Comparison of Taiwanese and US Retail Companies

The buying function of Taiwanese and US retailers differs in several areas. The consingment method of selling is very prevalent in Taiwan but rarely used in the US. Taiwanense retail buyers were found to have less buying and retail experience than their US counterparts. However, neither buying nor retail experience were found to be significantly retaled to taiwanese buyers' attitudes about product procurement. Significant differences were identified between Taiwanese and US retail buyers' attitudes about country of origin and perceived value of imported merchandise. Taiwanese buyers were found to be more likely to rely on country of origin as an information cue than their US counterparts. On the other hand, as compared to Taiwanese buyers, US buyers were found more likely to percieve foreign apparel as having value than domestically manufactured products.     

Trade deflection and trade depression

This is the first paper to empirically examine whether a country's use of an import restricting trade policy distorts a foreign country's exports to third markets. We first develop a theoretical model of worldwide trade in which the imposition of antidumping and safeguard tariffs, or “trade remedies,” by one country causes significant distortions in world trade flows. We then empirically test this model by investigating the effect of the United States' use of such import restrictions on Japanese exports of roughly 4800 products into 37 countries between 1992 and 2001. Our estimation yields evidence that US restrictions both deflect and depress Japanese export flows to third countries. Imposition of a US antidumping measure against Japan deflects trade, as the average antidumping duty on Japanese exports leads to a 5-7% increase in Japanese exports of the same product to the average third country market. The imposition of a US antidumping measure against a third country depresses trade, as the average US duty imposed on a third country leads to a 5-19% decrease in Japanese exports of that same product to the average third country's market. We also document the substantial variation in trade deflection and trade depression across different importing countries and exported products.     

美国国际收支结构的特征、趋势分析及对中国的启示

美国日益增长的经常项目赤字和庞大的净对外债务已经成为影响世界经济的一个不确定因素。长期来看,以亚洲国家为外围主体为美国经常项目赤字融资这一复活的布雷顿森林体系难以长久存在,因而以“逆差+顺差”为特点的美国国际收支结构是很难持续的,美国的经常项目很可能会经历一次趋向平衡的调整过程。同时指出了中国对美国经常项目调整可能给中国经济发展带来冲击的应对措施。     

US trade preferences and export performance of developing countries: Evidence from the generalized system of preferences

Preferential market access such as the generalized system of preferences (GSP) is clearly recognized as a way of enabling developing countries export their way out of poverty. It has been a vital feature of industrialized countries' commercial policy for nearly 30 years. This study empirically explores the linkages between US trade preferences under the GSP and beneficiary country exports. Using a large US import database covering over 120 developing countries, the study examines the extent to which GSP influences export performance. The results largely indicate that the GSP has a significant and positive effect on beneficiary exports to US for all country and product groups. A proper understanding of this relationship will help donors and recipients devise appropriate policies to help encourage the growth and diversification of exports that is so vital for developing countries.     

Exploring antecedents and consequences of consumer ethnocentrism: evidence from Asian immigrants in the US

The US is a multicultural society due to its growing number of ethnic minorities. These ethnic populations have made intracultural studies more difficult because of the different senses of identity and degrees of acculturation the varied groups possess. The current study examined the impact of perceived ethnicity (Asian vs. Asian American) and acculturation level (low vs. high) on consumer ethnocentrism towards the country of immigration (the US) and its consequences with respect to Asian immigrants, the fastest growing minority in the US. One hundred and eighty‐five responses from Asian immigrants were collected through a convenience sample from a university campus located in the southwest US as well as a snowball sampling technique. Results revealed that perceived ethnicity and acculturation play an important role in influencing Asian immigrants' ethnocentrism towards the US, which in turn affects their attitudes and behavioural intentions towards products made in the US. Implications and future research directions are suggested.     

Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Role of Market Shares

This paper examines the effects of changing market shares on exchange rate pass-through to US import prices. Based on a static model of imperfect competition, I predict that a country with a larger share of a host’s import market will have lower pass-through than its competitors. Using highly disaggregated data on US imports, I implement rolling regressions to calculate unique quarterly values of pass-through for specific goods from each exporting country. These values are compared across market shares, indicating a general trend of decreasing pass-through for larger shares. Most specifically, as predicted by the model, the country holding the largest share of the market has significantly lower pass-through than its competitors. The negative relationship between pass-through and market share holds across most categories of goods, most notably the larger categories of imports. Lastly, I show the market share effect is stronger following larger fluctuations in the exchange rate, particularly after large dollar appreciations.     

Frontier and emerging government bond markets

We investigate correlation dynamics and diversification properties of US dollar-denominated debt issued by governments of frontier markets. Our analysis is on the aggregate, regional, and country level, with a sample covering 29 countries over the period 2001–2013. We show that the correlation between the returns of frontier government bond markets and US government bonds is time-varying, but on average close to zero. Correlations with US investment grade corporate bonds, US corporate high yield bonds, and US dollar-denominated debt issued by governments of emerging markets are substantially higher, which limits diversification benefits for investors who already own these asset classes.     

Consumer ethnocentricity and preferences for wool products by country of origin and manufacture

Labelling on apparel products usually focuses on the country where manufacturing takes place, rather than where the raw materials were obtained. A choice experiment of consumers in three southern US states was conducted to determine preferences and marginal willingness to pay (mWTP) for wool blend sweaters based on fibre origin and country of manufacture. Fibre origin choices were Australia, US and US State, with the latter to investigate consumer interest in local over simply domestic. Manufacturing had two possibilities, US and China. Survey questions were used to determine an average consumer ethnocentric tendency (CET) score for each consumer, and a median split was used to place each into a High or Low CET group. Nested logit models were analysed for both groups, and mWTP estimates were computed from the coefficients. Both CET groups were willing to pay significant premiums for State‐produced wool over US wool, and for US wool over Australian wool. However, the Low CET group exhibited lower premiums for fibre origins than their High CET counterparts. Ethnocentric consumers, unlike Low CET consumers, were additionally willing to pay significant premiums for wool blend sweaters knitted in the US vs. those knitted in China. Results suggest that labelling fibre by State or by US origin may allow producers to obtain substantial premiums for their apparel products. Promotion of domestic manufacturing though may only be effective for a smaller set of consumers.     

Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?

This paper attempts to disentangle the intricate relation linking the world interest rate, country spreads, and emerging-market fundamentals. It does so by using a methodology that combines empirical and theoretical elements. The main findings are: (1) US interest rate shocks explain about 20% of movements in aggregate activity in emerging economies. (2) Country spread shocks explain about 12% of business cycles in emerging economies. (3) In response to an increase in US interest rates, country spreads first fall and then display a large, delayed overshooting; (4) US-interest-rate shocks affect domestic variables mostly through their effects on country spreads; (5) The feedback from emerging-market fundamentals to country spreads significantly exacerbates business-cycle fluctuations.