The stock market and investment

Changes in stock prices have substantial explanatory power forU.S. investment, especially for long-term samples, and evenin the presence of cash flow variables. The stock market dramaticallyout-performs a standard q-variable because the market-equitycomponent of this variable is only a rough proxy for stock marketvalue. Although the stock market did not predict accuratelyafter the crash of October 1987, the errors were not statisticallysignificant. Parallel relationship for Canada raise the puzzlethat Canadian investment appears to react more to the U.S. stockmarket than to the Canadian market.     

The information content of stock splits

This study examines whether stock splits contain information content about future operating performance or whether splits are undertaken by firms to realign their share prices and to improve trading liquidity. In the four years following split announcements, splitting firms do not experience improved operating performance relative to non-splitting firms. Furthermore, stock split signals are not related to future profitability. The positive announcement effect can be explained by lower share prices and improved market liquidity following stock splits but not by split signals and post-split operating performance. Our results show very little evidence that stock splits signal improvement in long-run operating performance and are more consistent with the trading range/liquidity hypothesis.     

The information content of stock splits

We develop a new methodology that controls for both the timing of annual earnings news (Asquith et al., 1989) and the performance prior to split announcements (Barber and Lyon, 1996) to evaluate the information content of stock splits. In contrast to existing evidence, we find that stock splits in aggregate are followed by positive abnormal future earnings growth, suggesting that stock splits contain information about future, rather than past, operating performance. When we use changes in breadth of institutional ownership as a new metric of information content to corroborate our findings, we find that splits with the greatest increase in breadth experience positive post-split abnormal returns and positive abnormal earnings growth. Together, our results suggest that some splits contain positive information about future performance, and that sophisticated market participants such as institutional investors are able to select these splits.     

Government investment and the stock market

High rates of government investment in public sector capital forecast high risk premiums both at the aggregate and firm-level. This result is in sharp contrast with the well-documented negative relationship between the private sector investment rate and risk premiums. To explain the empirical findings, we extend the neoclassical q-theory model of investment and specify public sector capital as an additional input in the firm's technology. We show that the model can quantitatively replicate the empirical facts with reasonable parameter values if public sector capital increases the marginal productivity of private inputs.     

Corporate investment and stock market valuation

We study the driving forces behind the positive association observed between corporate investment and stock market valuation, and how they interact with managerial equity incentives and informativeness of investment. We build a dynamic model where managers use investment choices to influence investors' opinions about firms' future prospects and increase the market valuation. The incentives to manipulate the valuation processes increase with managerial equity incentives and informativeness of investment. Our empirical findings support the model's predictions that the tendency of using investment to boost market valuation is stronger when managerial stock ownership is high or when earnings quality is low (i.e., there is strong reliance on investment for information).     

The incremental information content of replacement cost earnings

The study explores the incremental explanatory power of replacement cost earnings variables (derived from ASR 190 data) with respect to explaining cross sectional differences in security returns. As such, the study is a natural extension of previous research, including analyses of the effect of security returns of ASR 190 data at the time of disclosure, investigations of cross sectional relationships between security returns and historical cost earnings, and studies of multiple signals. The basic finding is that pre-holding gain net income provides no incremental explanatory powerm given knowledge of historical cost earnings. However, the converse does not hold. Taken together, the findings are consistent with the contention that pre-holding gain net income is a garbled version of historical cost earnings. The basic finding is robust under several extensions of the initial research design. The research design incorporates a two-stage approach which permits a determination of the incremental explanatory power of collinear variables. The findings are in contrast to those of a previous study by Easman et al. (1979). The nature of the difference in research design inducing the difference is identified. Potential reasons for the difference in findings are provided.     

Responsible investment in the Chinese stock market

This paper provides insights into the current development of responsible investment in the Chinese stock market. We find that responsible investment can bring portfolio benefits to investors, and institutional investors have a holding preference for stocks in responsible investment indexes. By using a national air pollution proxy, we find that investors’ pessimistic mood on days with heavy air pollution has a negative influence on the stock return of A-shares, while stocks in responsible investment indexes display improved performance over the same time period. We use aggregated trading data to study the trading preference of Chinese retail investors on days when they are influenced by air pollution, and find that their total trading ratio shows a negative influence for both A-shares and responsible investment indexes. Moreover, there is more seller-initiated trading of the whole sample but more buyer-initiated trading of stocks in responsible investment indexes on air pollution days. This finding is consistent with the different stock return performances of these two samples. Our finding extends the studies of responsible investment to emerging markets and presents new evidence about the influence of environmental factors on trading behavior and return performance.     

Global portfolio investment network and stock market comovement

This paper examines the impact of financial connectedness of countries on international stock market comovement. In recent decades, cross-border capital flows have increased dramatically, and I use bilateral cross-border portfolio holdings to create a global portfolio investment network. Using network analysis, I examine the effect of a country's centrality within this network on stock market comovement while also controlling for the country's trade connectedness. The results show that stock markets of countries that occupy highly central positions within the global portfolio investment network exhibit higher comovement after I control for the level of trade connectedness. Countries that simultaneously occupy highly central positions in both financial and trade networks display even higher levels of stock market comovement. Moreover, linkages derived from total portfolio holdings matter just as much as or more than those derived only from equity linkages.     

Testing for incremental information content in the presence of collinearity

A number of recent research papers use two-stage procedures in lieu of a single multiple regression, in some cases purportedly as a solution to colinearity among independent variables. We demonstrate that, since collinearity is inherently a data problem rather than a statistical problem, no partitions of dependent or independent variables, orthogonal or otherwise, can provide insights into the relative influence of collinear variables. For the class of linear unbiased estimators this follows directly from the Gauss-Markov Theorem, but we demonstrate some of the results in detail as an aid to interpreting particular papers.     

Which approach to accounting for employee stock options best reflects market pricing?

We use a residual income valuation framework to compare equity valuation implications of four approaches to employee stock options (ESOs) accounting: APB 25 “recognize nothing”, SFAS 123 (revised) “recognize ESO expense”, FASB Exposure Draft “recognize and expense ESO asset” and “recognize ESO asset and liability”. Theoretical analysis shows only grant date recognition of an asset and liability, and subsequent marking-to-market of the liability, results in accounting numbers that capture the dilution effects of ESOs on current shareholder value. Out-of-sample equity market value prediction tests and in-sample comparisons of model explanatory power also support the “recognize ESO asset and liability” method.     

Institutional stock trading on loan market information

One of the most important developments in the corporate loan market over the past decade has been the growing participation of institutional investors. As lenders, institutional investors routinely receive private information about borrowers. However, most of these investors also trade in public securities. This leads to a controversial question: Do institutional investors use private information acquired in the loan market to trade in public securities? This paper examines the stock trading of institutional investors whose portfolios also hold loans. Using the Securities and Exchange Commission filings of loan amendments, we identify institutional investors with access to private information disclosed during loan amendments. We then look at abnormal returns on subsequent stock trades. We find that institutional participants in loan renegotiations subsequently trade in the stock of the same company and outperform trades by other managers and trades in other stocks by approximately 5.4% in annualized terms.     

The cross-market information content of stock and bond order flow

In this paper I test the hypothesis that trading activity in the stock and bond markets contains important marketwide pricing information. Using a large sample of actively traded stocks and U.S. Treasury securities, I find that aggregate order imbalances play a strong role in explaining cross-market returns. I interpret this as evidence that aggregate order flow reveals information about the risk preferences, beliefs, and endowments of the investor population that is relevant for pricing securities in both markets. I also find evidence that cross-market hedging is an important source of linkages across the two markets, especially during periods of elevated equity volatility.     

Managerial characteristics and stock market investment: evidence from China

We examine the effect of managerial characteristics on investment in the stock market by listed firms in China. Our empirical findings suggest that higher levels of cash‐based compensation may increase both the propensity of investing in the stock market and the total amount of investment. On the other hand, managerial holdings discourage managers from investing in stock markets and also lead to a decrease in the amount of investment. This study sheds light on managerial risk‐taking incentives. Moreover, this study fills the gap in the literature by providing evidence for the determinants of listed firms’ stock market investment.     

Primacy in stock market participation: the effect of initial returns on market re-entry decisions

We examine whether initial returns influence investors’ decisions to return to the stock market following withdrawal. Using a survival analysis technique to estimate Finnish retail investors’ likelihood of stock market re-entry reveals that investors who experience lower initial returns are less likely to return, even after controlling for returns in the last month and average monthly returns for the duration of investing. This primacy effect is robust to accounting for endogeneity in investors’ exit decisions, and other behavioural biases such as recency and saliency of investment experience. Individual investors appear to be subject to primacy bias and tend to put a significant weight on initial experiences in re-entry decisions.     

Corporate financing decisions, managerial market timing, and real investment

Both market timing and investment-based theories of corporate financing predict under-performance after firms raise capital, but only market timing predicts that the composition of financing (equity compared with debt) should also forecast returns. In cross-sectional tests, we find that the amount of net financing is more important than its composition in explaining future stock returns. In the time series, investment-based factor models explain abnormal stock performance following a variety of corporate financing events that previous studies link to market timing. At the aggregate level, the amount of new financing is also more important for future market returns than its composition. Overall, our joint tests reveal that measures of real investment are correlated with future returns and measures of managerial market timing are not.     

个人直接投资境外股市可以缓解中国流动性资本过乘

问：国家外汇管理局8月20日宣布，中国居民个人可在国内试点地区（首选天津滨海新区）以自有外汇资金及人民币购汇直接从事对外证券投资，投资规模不受《个人外汇管理办法实施细则》规定的每年不超过5万美元的购汇总额限制。香港H股市场被确定为初期可直接投资的境外股市，据悉该项业务的名称初定为“港股直通车”，估计居民个人半个月后就可以开立港股账户。[第一段]     

Audit opinions and information asymmetry in the stock market

This study analyses the relationship between the content of the audit reports and information asymmetry levels in the stock market for a sample of Spanish firms. By implementing an association study, we document (1) that firms with audit qualifications show higher information asymmetry levels than those with unqualified opinions; (2) firms with non‐quantified qualifications show higher informational asymmetry than firms with quantified qualifications; and (3) we find a stronger effect on the level of informational asymmetry in the case of going concern qualifications. Our findings suggest that audit qualifications reporting more uncertainty on firm accounting statements result in higher adverse selection risk.     

Is the information produced in the stock market useful for depositors?

The information produced by sophisticated investors in the stock market may be useful for uninformed depositors. Since much information is not produced for Shinkin banks (cooperatives) in Japan, relying on the information from the stock market may be an efficient decision for these depositors. This paper provides empirical evidence that Shinkin depositors seemed to withdraw funds after observing a fall in the stock prices of other banks.