Commodity prices and global economic activity

Commodity prices provide useful information about current and future global economic activity. First, we show that overall commodity prices indeed tend to comove with economic activity. Second, we try to extract the global demand factor(s) using many commodity prices. While commodity prices reflect both demand and supply factors, by relying on a wide variety of commodity prices, supply shocks can be filtered out as they tend to be commodity-specific idiosyncratic shocks except for widespread supply disruptions confined to a few historical periods. In this paper, we then show that factors extracted from commodity prices movement contain useful information to nowcast and forecast global GDP and industrial production.     

Global commodity prices and global stock market volatility shocks: Effects across countries

We investigate the time-varying dynamics of global stock market volatility, commodity prices, domestic output and consumer prices. We find (i) stock market volatility and commodity price shocks impact each other and the economy in a gradual and endogenous adjustment process, (ii) impact of commodity price shock on global stock market volatility is significant during global financial crises, (iii) effects of global stock market volatility on the US output are amplified by endogenous commodity price responses, (iv) effects of global stock market volatility shocks on the economy are heterogeneous across nations and relatively larger in twelve developed countries, (v) four developing/small economies are more vulnerable to commodity price shocks.     

Commodity prices and monetary policy in emerging East Asia during the global financial crisis

In the first phase of the global financial crisis, rising inflation was a major concern for emerging East Asian central banks. Coupled with a slowing US economy, regional central banks faced a monetary policy dilemma of either addressing higher inflation or supporting moderate growth. Higher food and fuel prices were the major drivers of headline inflation. Their causes, however, were a confluence of mutually reinforcing cyclical and structural factors. Understandably, different economies faced a different balance of risks between price stability and growth; but to attribute the inflation to supply shocks alone was misleading. This was unsettling given that inflation and inflation expectations were on the rise, and without much credibility, the reluctance of many central banks to raise interest rates risked repeating the mistake the advanced economies made in the 1970s. Without credibility, inflation expectations are unlikely to be well anchored. To gain credibility, a central bank must ‘walk‐the‐talk’, and understandably it must have the autonomy to do so.     

System for scenario planning and forecasting world prices for steel and metallurgical raw materials

The article describes the methodology for construction and the main results obtained by implementing a scenario and modeling system intended for generating scenarios and forecasting the long-term performance of the world prices for steel and metallurgical raw materials.     

Medium-term forecasting of demand prices on example of electricity prices for industry

In the paper, a method of forecasting demand prices for electric energy for the industry has been suggested. An algorithm of the forecast for 2006–2010 based on the data for 1997–2005 has been presented.     

粮油价格狙击战

由于2010年下半年以来，粮油价格不断上涨，政府于近日发布限价令。这一纸限价令对相关生产企业以及经销商产生很大影响。面对这一形势，相关企业是如何应对的     

Commodity prices in Copenhagen

Abstract

The publication of reliable statistical material relating to the history of prices is an exceedingly difficult task. An enormous amount of work has to be expended, first in tracing and collating information about prices, then in so arranging it as to form a yardstick for measuring the market value of a similar quantity and quality of a commodity over a long period of time. It is generally recognised by economic historians that the earliest work in this field was undertaken without a full appreciation of the difficulties, and that the conclusions drawn were not always based upon as detailed, comprehensive and critical a study of the sources as was really required. This is undoubtedly one of the reasons for the somewhat sceptical view which some present-day economic historians take of studies in the history of prices.     

Advance notice of real-time electricity prices

Many utilities are offering real-time pricing (RTP) to their large industrial customers. Under RTP, hourly rates change with real-time supply and demand. As compared to fixed rates, RTP shifts price risk from the utility to the customer. With such a change, it is natural to ask if there is an optimal level of advance notice of prices. This paper contains a simulation of real-time rates for industrial customers with and without advance notice of prices. Advance notice is valuable to customers who can increase elasticity of substitution. This value must be weighed against the cost to the electric utility from an increase in demand forecast error. The simulation suggests that day-ahead advance notice increases welfare for reasonable magnitudes of customer elasticity and utility forecast error.This material was prepared with the support of the U.S. Department of Energy, Grant No. DE-FG48-95R810582 A000. However, any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of Energy. This work was also supported in part by funds provided by the University of North Carolina, a Barclays American Research Award, and the Belk College of Business Administration. The authors are grateful for comments provided by Steve Braithwait, Laurence Kirsch, Steve Johnston, Peter Griffes, John Trapani, Mike O'Sheasy, and participants of Research Triangle Institute, Western Economic Association, and Rutgers University Center for Research in Regulated Industries Advanced Workshop in Regulation and Public Utility Economics.     

Adjustment of prices for energy resources

The paper is devoted to the problem of influence of domestic prices and tariffs for energy resources on economic development, as well as the problem of formation of the state policy of their adjustment. A calculation of basic indices of GDP energy intensity and the dynamics of prices for energy products is presented. The factors and consequences of the price dynamics are discussed. The aim of the paper is to reveal the complexity and multifaceted nature of the problem and show the inconclusive character of the approaches and solutions.     

被误读的国际油价

就市场运行来说，投机炒作是市场发展的常态。但是从根本而言，油价的涨跌还是由经济增长的变化和石油市场需求的强弱来决定的     

物价上涨对我国税收收入的影响——由本轮物价上涨来看

从2010年开始，我国进入一个新的经济发展阶段，表现为出口导向减弱，扩大内需程度增加，城市化速度加快，消费需求增多。与此同时，物价水平也进入了新一轮上涨通道，通胀预期持续增强。尽管物价上涨给居民生活带来诸多不便，但却成为税收增加的主要原因之一。本文从这一轮物价上涨及税收增长的现实入手，阐述物价推高税收增长带来的不利影响及应对措施。     

Model of limited prices in infrastructure sectors

The article presents a model of limit prices that was developed by the authors. The model allows one to analyze how the dynamics of prices in infrastructure sectors influence industry. The modeling methodology, as well as the calculation results for four infrastructure sectors, i.e., electricity, gas, freight rail transportation, and oil industry, is described.     

Consumers’ perception of prices in Umtata

Consumers in developing areas pay higher prices because of lack of competition in retailing. A case in point is Umtata, where consumers feel strongly that prices are higher than in other urban areas such as East London and Durban, and shop in other centres because of high prices. Clothing, shoes, furniture, appliances and groceries are considered expensive and are frequently bought outside Umtata. Developing areas require national as well as local remedies such as increased competition, consumer education and organisation, and advertising.     

权力经济下的油价上涨

今年上半年，国家发改委两次提高成品油价格，理由是：国际市场油价再次大幅攀升，近期在每桶70美元左右波动，国内成品油价格与国际市场价差进一步拉大，成品油价格与原油价格倒挂的矛盾加剧，成品油供应趋紧，个别地区出现限供、断供现象。