A long-run,short-run,and politico-economic analysis of the welfare costs of inflation

The long-run, short-run, and politico-economic welfare implications of inflation are assessed in a Bewley model of money demand. All agents produce and consume every period, and hold money to self-insure against idiosyncratic risk. The model is calibrated so the equilibrium monetary distribution shares features with US data. The long-run welfare costs of inflation are shown to be large because inflation reduces the ability of money to mitigate risk. However, the beneficial redistributive effect of inflation is magnified along the short-run transition and reduces the overall costs. These short-run benefits result in a majority-rule inflation rate above the Friedman Rule.     

Consumption externalities, production externalities, and efficient capital accumulation under time non-separable preferences

The effects of consumption and production externalities on economic performance under time non-separable preferences are examined both theoretically and numerically. We show that a consumption externality alone has long-run distortionary effects if and only if labor is supplied elastically. With fixed labor supply, it has only transitional distortionary effects. Production externalities always generate long-run distortions, irrespective of labor supply. The optimal tax structure to correct for the distortions is characterized. We compare the implications of this model with those obtained when the consumption externality is contemporaneous. While some of the long-run effects are robust, there are also important qualitative and quantitative differences, particularly along transitional paths.     

Rational inattention,long-run consumption risk,and portfolio choice

This paper explores how the introduction of rational inattention (RI) – that agents process information subject to finite channel capacity – affects optimal consumption and investment decisions in an otherwise standard intertemporal model of portfolio choice. We first explicitly derive optimal consumption and portfolio rules under RI and then show that introducing RI reduces the optimal share of savings invested in the risky asset because inattentive investors face greater long-run consumption risk. We also show that the investment horizon matters for portfolio allocation in the presence of RI, even if investment opportunities are constant and the utility function of investors is constant relative risk aversion. Second, after aggregating across investors, we show that introducing RI can better explain the observed joint dynamics of aggregate consumption and the equity return. Finally, we show that RI increases the implied equity premium because investors under RI face greater long-run consumption risk and thus require higher compensation in equilibrium.     

Enterprise restructuring and social benefits

Soviet era firms provided generous social benefits, including health and child care. Despite recent cuts, firm survey data show that benefits have remained a major component of total compensation. With benefits largely firm-specific and firms dominated by insiders, continuing attachment of workers as well as widespread informal sector participation has resulted. This has impeded restructuring, in part by generating significant set-up costs for new private firms. We simulate the effects of a cut in subsidies to benefits provision. We show that while this leads to falls in benefits and employment and an increase in wages, the outcome critically depends on the availability of alternative providers. The key to cushioning these adverse consequences is the stimulation of a market in benefits provision. Given initial conditions, rapid removal of benefits supports will require transitional income support scheme of transitional support and show that it can be financed from the savings from removal of current subsidies to benefits.     

Fiscal Policy, Congestion, and Endogenous Growth

We devise an endogenous growth model with private and public physical capital, and human capital, which allows for relative and absolute congestion. According to empirical evidence, long-run growth is invariant to fiscal policy. Despite its complexity, the dynamics of the market economy and the centralized economy are analyzed in detail. We show that an increase in absolute congestion reduces the long-run growth rate of output. In contrast, relative congestion does not affect long-run growth. In the absence of congestion, it is optimal to use lump-sum taxation, and with congestion it is optimal to also tax income.     

Gradual Product Replacement,Intangible-Asset Prices and Schumpeterian Growth

The paper develops a general-equilibrium model of scale-invariant Schumpeterian (R&D-based) growth. New higher-quality products are discovered through stochastic and sequential R&D races in each industry. The market share of an R&D race winner increases gradually and is governed by an exponential deterministic process. The introduction of gradual (as opposed to instantaneous) product replacement sheds more light on the effects of the rate of technology diffusion on long-run growth and on long-run dynamics of intangible asset prices. An economy with faster product diffusion rates experiences higher long-run innovation rates, faster transitional growth, and is populated by younger firms. As the typical firm becomes older, the earnings yield (i.e., the inverse of the price earnings (P/E) ratio) increases and expected earnings growth declines. Younger firms have lower earnings, lower market shares, but higher P/E ratios and higher expected earnings growth associated with their higher potential market growth.An electronic version of the paper is available at http://bear.cba.ufl.edu/dinopoulos/research.html.     

On the Invariance of the Rate of Return to Convex Adjustment Costs

The modified golden rule, which relates the rate of return on capital and the growth rate of the capital stock along long-run growth paths that maximize the utility of a representative infinitely lived consumer, is invariant to the introduction of convex capital adjustment costs. Therefore, along balanced growth paths in neoclassical optimal growth models with an exogenous long-run growth rate of capital, the rate of return is invariant to the introduction of convex adjustment costs, though the capital–labor ratio is reduced along such paths. In AK models, convex adjustment costs reduce the growth rate and rate of return on capital. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: E2.     

The quest for status and endogenous labor supply: the relative wealth framework

We analyze the implications of relative wealth preferences in a Ramsey model with endogenous labor supply. In contrast to relative consumption preferences, they allow for the possibility that agents work too little in the long run, while under both specifications the steady-state levels of consumption and the stock of physical capital exceed their socially optimal counterparts. Even in the case of excessive leisure agents are worse off in terms of intertemporal utility because initial transitional dynamics are characterized by under-consumption and excessive work effort. “Too much” long-run consumption of goods and leisure is possible due to the excessive capital-labor ratio.      

Public debt and welfare in a quantitative Schumpeterian growth model with incomplete markets

This paper quantifies the welfare effects of counterfactual public debt policies using an endogenous growth model with incomplete markets. The economy features public debt, Schumpeterian growth, infinitely-lived agents, uninsurable income risk, and discount factor heterogeneity. Two versions of the model are specified, one with households holding equity in the group of innovating firms. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy to match the degree of wealth inequality, the share of R&D expenditure in GDP, the firms’ exit rate, the average growth rate, and other standard long-run targets. When comparing balanced growth paths, I find large welfare gains in equilibria characterized by governments accumulating public wealth. The result is robust to the mechanism used to generate a highly concentrated wealth (i.e., preference heterogeneity or “superstar” income shocks). Welfare effects decompositions show that level effects and growth effects reinforce each other. The responses of both the intermediate goods and their market conditions are key in explaining the large level effects. The version of the model without equity is computationally easier to solve, allowing to consider transitional dynamics. Taking into account the dynamic adjustment to the new long-run equilibrium, I show that the transitional welfare costs are not large enough to change the sign of the welfare effects stemming from a change in public debt. I find that eliminating public debt would lead to a 0.8% increase in welfare, while moving to a debt/GDP ratio of 100% would entail a welfare loss of 0.5%. A decomposition analysis shows that growth accounts for approximately 50% of the overall welfare effects.     

Projected U.S. Demographics and Social Security

Without policy reforms, the aging of the U.S. population is likely to increase the burden of the currently unfunded Social Security and Medicare systems. In this paper we build an applied general equilibrium model and incorporate the population projections made by the Social Security Administration (SSA) to evaluate the macroeconomic and welfare implications of alternative fiscal responses to the retirement of the baby-boomers. Our calculations suggest that it will be costly to maintain the benefits at the levels now promised because the increases in distortionary taxes required to finance those benefits will reduce private saving and labor supply. We also find that the “accounting calculations” made by the SSA underestimate the required fiscal adjustments. Finally, our results confirm that policies with similar long-run characteristics have very different transitional implications for the distribution of welfare across generations. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D52, D58, E21, E62.     

On Optimal Lifetime Redistribution Policy

In this paper, we examine various aspects of the optimal lifetime redistribution policy within a cohort. We characterize the optimal tax policy when society consists of individuals who do not differ only in productivity, but also in time preference. We extend Diamond's analysis on nonlinear taxation of savings into the three-type and four-type models. To gain a better understanding of the lifetime redistribution, the problem is also solved numerically. Our results provide a rationale for distortions (upward and downward) in savings behavior in a simple two-period model where high-skilled and low-skilled individuals have different nonobservable time preferences beyond their earning capacity. If we interpret our model so that instead of private savings there is public provision of pension in the second period, then in the three-type model, we find a nonmonotonic pattern of the replacement rates. The numerical results suggest that retirement consumption is less dispersed than the first-period consumption in a paternalistic case. Paternalistic government policy also increases second-period consumption compared to the welfarist case.     

Testing the Assumptions and Predictions of the Hotelling Model

In this paper, we empirically examine whether the assumptions and predictions of the Hotelling model are consistent with patterns observed in data. We consider nonlinear functional forms for the extraction cost and resource demand to develop an empirical Hotelling model with technological progress and stock dependent extraction costs. Using panel data on fourteen nonrenewable natural resources to estimate this empirical Hotelling model, we get qualitatively different results as compared to the related literature. We find evidence of stock-dependent extraction costs for most resources. There is no evidence against the linearity of the optimal extraction rate in the resource stock for almost all resources studied. Furthermore, the Hotelling model may sustain a zero long-run growth rate in resource prices. These results depend on whether firms use different extractive technologies or whether the structural break observed on resource prices is taken into account.     

A Cournot Mechanism for Pollution Control under Asymmetric Information

The contribution of this paper is to show that a simple nonlinear tax can achieve a long-run socially optimal level of pollution without the regulator knowing marginal abatement costs. Firms are charged their differential contribution to total damages, evaluated at the upper margin of current emissions. This induces a Cournot game in pollution levels. We show that the Nash equilibrium exists, corresponds to the socially optimal long-run output and emission levels and number of firms, is stable, and can be reached by iterative computations where conjectures are formed using a linear estimator based on past emission levels.     

On the optimal design of pension systems

The present paper aims to quantify efficiency properties of flat and earnings-related pay-as-you-go financed social security systems of various institutional designs in order to identify an optimal pension design. Starting from a benchmark economy without social security, we introduce alternative pension systems and compare the costs arising from liquidity constraints as well as distortions of labor supply versus the benefits from insurance provision against income and lifespan uncertainty. Our findings suggest an optimal replacement rate of about 50 % of average earnings. In our model a single-tier earnings-related pension system yields the highest efficiency gains dominating flat benefits as well as two-tier systems of any form. We also show that the negative correlation between pension progressivity and pension generosity of real-world social security systems can be justified on efficiency grounds. Finally, our results indicate a positive impact of means-testing flat benefits against earnings-related benefits within multi-pillar pension systems.     

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in the Health Sector when There is a Private Alternative to Public Treatment

In health economics, cost-effectiveness is defined as maximizedhealth benefits for a given health budget. When there is a privatealternative to public treatments, care must be taken when usingcost-effectiveness analysis to decide what types of treatmentsshould be included in the public program. The correct benefitmeasure is in this case the sum of health benefits to thosewho would not be treated without the public alternative andthe cost savings to those who would otherwise choose privatetreatment. In the socially optimal ranking of treatments tobe included in the public health program, treatments shouldbe given higher priority the higher are costs per treatmentfor a given ratio of gross heath benefits to costs. (JEL: H42,H51, I18)     

Population growth: A pure welfarist approach

In this study we propose a framework based on welfarist principles to deal with several issues concerned with population economics models, such as the Repugnant Conclusion, both in absolute and relative sense, the shape of childbearing costs and population dynamics, under both normative and positive perspectives. We show that the relative critical level criterion can avoid both the assumption of high childbearing costs and the absolute repugnant conclusion (ARC) but cannot avoid the relative repugnant conclusion (RRC). Moreover, optimal fertility is increased by technological shocks and displays cycles. Both ARC and RRC can be avoided by extending the model to a decentralized economy with consumption externalities; in the latter model, a technological shock reduces long‐run fertility and can generate cycles along the transitional path.     

Executive Compensation and Legal Investor Protection: Evidence from China's Listed Firms

This paper seeks to relate the increases in executive compensation observed in China to improvement of the legal environment. We build a simple model and demonstrate that improvement in legal investor protection reduces the manager's private benefits of control; in order to make the managerial incentives compatible, some of the forgone private benefits have to be compensated in the form of increased executive pay. Using a large dataset on Chinese listed corporations, we find strong evidence that improvement of the legal environment is significantly associated with both the rise in executive compensation and the reduction in agency costs, which is consistent with our model predictions.     

金融资产与实物资产对城镇居民消费影响的差异性研究

本文在相关资料基础上,对我国城镇居民持有金融资产与实物资产进行了重新核算,并采用ARDL-UECM模型计量分析了长短期内金融资产、实物资产对消费影响的差异性。结果表明:金融资产长期内对消费支出存在较弱的抑制作用,短期内存在较弱的促进作用;而实物资产长期内对消费存在有限的促进作用,短期内对消费存在较强的促进作用。产生这种差异的原因主要是:超额比重预防性储蓄导致金融资产对居民消费产生长期扭曲,以及过高自有住房率在房价攀升时只能提高短期边际消费倾向,长期则有限。现阶段只有降低超额比重预防性储蓄及抑制过高的房价才能进一步提高城镇居民的资产财富效应。     

Optimal growth in the two-sector neoclassical growth model

This article analyzes optimal growth in the neoclassical two-sector model. First, the optimal savings ratio is derived corresponding to that growth path which maximizes consumption at each point of time. Secondly, it can be shown that this optimal savings ratio is the limit for the optimal savings ratio as derived by Pontryagin's maximum principle for an optimal policy, when the social discount rate for future per capita consumption approaches zero.This work was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, West-Germany.     

Aspects of optimal unemployment insurance : Search, leisure, savings and capital market imperfections

Unemployment insurance is analysed in the optimal taxation framework. Benefits discourage search and thus raise unemployment. A perfect capital market model is developed and solved explicitly for a constant absolute risk aversion utility function. For ‘realistic’ parameter values low replacement rates (less than 50%) are optimal. If there is no lending or borrowing the optimal rates rise to about 75%. Alternative models also admit leisure as a good and the input to search; this reduces optimal replacement when the capital market is perfect. When it is nonexistent the optimal benefits depend on the value of leisure - rising as it falls. Alternatives to constant benefits conditional on continued unemployment are considered.