Network Effects and Infrastructure Productivity in Developing Countries*

This study proposes to investigate the threshold effects in the productivity of infrastructure investment in developing countries. It concludes to their presence in the relationship between output and private and public inputs as well as network effects in the productivity of infrastructure. When the available stock of infrastructure is low, investment has the same productivity as non‐infrastructure investment. On the contrary, when a minimum network is available, the marginal productivity of infrastructure investment is greater than the productivity of other investments. Finally, when the main network is achieved, its marginal productivity becomes similar to the productivity of other investment.     

Factors affecting institutional investors to add crypto-currency to asset portfolios

As crypto-currency has been gained great attention in financial market, it becomes more popular among institutional investment managers’ portfolios. Thus this research makes a pioneering study to investigate the role of crypto-currencies in PE company portfolios and factors affecting the institutional investors’ investment intention in order to enhance the reliability of their investment products. Data were obtained from 253 multinational PE company investment managers who have bought and used crypto-currency. The findings suggest not only important roles or drivers but also the moderating roles of innovativeness on relationships between the investment intention and its antecedents. It suggests that price volatility doesn’t lower institutional investors’ confidence as long as the market can offer timely and accurate price change information to meet investors’ price consciousness. The result also identifies that crypto-currency with high familiarity and trust can be well-suited in institutional investors’ portfolios.     

THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE ON MUNICIPAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: EMPIRICAL RESULTS FROM KENYA

This paper considers the role of public infrastructure in municipal economic development in Kenya. The primary objectives of the examination are to estimate the impact of roads and water infrastructure on municipal incomes, to ascertain the extent to which differences in institutional authority over water service delivery affect the quantity or quality of infrastructure, and to determine whether the presumed simultaneity between infrastructure and incomes matters for purposes of estimating the effect of the former on the latter. The analysis provides evidence to suggest that the impact of public infrastructure in the roads and water sectors on municipal economic development is significant. Also, the examination implies that local governments, when given authority over water services, do not appear to provide a larger quantity of water infrastructure than does the central government and/or its parastatal. On the other hand, and perhaps more significantly, the paper provides some initial evidence that the public water infrastructure services provided by local authorities are more accessible and reliable than those provided by central institutions. Finally, the results of the paper support the conclusion that possible simultaneity between public infrastructure and incomes does not seem to matter for estimating the quantitative impact of infrastructure on economic development.     

城市基础设施投融资活动分类管理的探讨

随着社会资本进入基础设施建设领域,政府的投融资体制产生转变,导致公共产品属性发生了变化,使得公共产品商品化。本文通过分析城市基础设施的公共产品属性及其投融资体制,分析得出城市基础设施应该回归公共产品本来的属性,相应的城市基础设施投融资体制应该进行改革,应以政府财政资金为主导,对应的社会资本应当纳入财政预算,接受财政监督,同时,在复式预算的基础上根据城市基础设施建设的不同性质,对城市基础设施的投融资进行分类管理。     

Long-run growth and welfare effects of public policies with distortionary taxation

In a one-sector growth model with infrastructure investment, we study the impact of fiscal policies on growth. The government collects taxes on labor income and profits. The government uses these revenues to purchase infrastructure investment, provide utility enhancing government services, and to provide transfer payments to the households. We show that the balanced growth rate is an increasing function of the percent of government revenues that goes to infrastructure. We find that the growth maximizing mix of taxes depends on the elasticity of substitution between inputs. In particular, with distortionary taxes, the growth maximizing tax rate on capital is higher the lower the elasticity of substitution between private physical capital and public capital. In addition, the growth maximizing size of the government is higher when the elasticity of substitution between public and private inputs is low. We also investigate welfare effects of other public expenditures as well. Depending on the elasticity of substitution in production, the welfare implications of different public policies can be substantial.     

我国城市基础设施产权制度的变迁

以制度变迁、产权和公共品理论研究为基础,通过对我国城市基础设施产权结构变革的原因和过程进行分析,提出我国城市基础设施产权制度变迁的基本路径,并指出这种制度变迁在客观上解决了我国城市基础设施长期以来的供给不足和效率低下等问题。     

“丝绸之路”经济带交通基础设施建设对区域贸易的影响

在建设"丝绸之路"经济带的宏观背景下,本文根据动态计量经济学的协整理论,通过构建VAR模型,对1992年到2012年"丝绸之路"经济带的交通基础设施建设和中国与中亚国家贸易增长之间的关系进行了平稳性检验、方差分解分析及协整检验。研究结果表明,"丝绸之路"经济带的交通基础设施建设与中国同中亚国家贸易增长存在长期的均衡关系,交通基础设施建设不仅能够对经济带的贸易繁荣起到促进作用,而且作用时间持久且贡献度逐年增加,因此有必要加大对"丝绸之路"经济带的交通基础设施投资。     

区域间公共基础设施溢出效应研究

运用中国各省(市、自治区)1990-2008年的面板数据,通过建立空间计量模型,对区域问基础设施投资的空间外溢性进行检验.研究结果显示.公共基础设施投资对区域经济的增长不仅在本区域内具有外部溢出效应,在区域间也存在显著的外部溢出效应.这表明莱一地区的公共基础设施投入不仅可以提升本地区的产出,也会对相邻区域的经济增长产生...     

Supply constraints and housing market dynamics

Although the volatility of house prices is often ascribed to demand-side factors, constraints on housing supply have important and little-studied implications for housing dynamics. I illustrate the strong relationship between the volatility of house prices and the regulation of new housing supply. I then employ a dynamic structural model of housing investment to investigate the mechanisms underlying this relationship. I find that supply constraints increase volatility through two channels: First, regulation lowers the elasticity of new housing supply by increasing lags in the permit process and adding to the cost of supplying new houses on the margin. Second, geographic limitations on the area available for building houses, such as steep slopes and water bodies, lead to less investment on average relative to the size of the existing housing stock, leaving less scope for the supply response to attenuate the effects of a demand shock. My estimates and simulations confirm that regulation and geographic constraints play critical and complementary roles in decreasing the responsiveness of investment to demand shocks, which in turn amplifies house price volatility.     

Public infrastructure investment,output dynamics,and balanced budget fiscal rules

We study the dynamic macroeconomic effects of public infrastructure investment under a balanced budget fiscal rule, using an overlapping generations model of a small open economy. The government finances public investment by employing distortionary labor taxes. The balanced budget rule implies a negative short-run output multiplier that exceeds (in absolute terms) the positive long-run output multiplier. Larger public capital spillovers sharpen the intertemporal output tradeoff. In contrast to conventional results regarding public investment shocks, we obtain dampened cyclical responses for plausible parameter values. The cyclical dynamics arise from the interaction between the labor tax rate, the tax base, and the intergenerational spillover effects. We show that financing scenarios involving public debt creation can substantially reduce the short-run output contraction and the transitional macroeconomic fluctuations induced by public investment.     

Why do U.S. states adopt public–private partnership enabling legislation?

Public–private partnerships, or PPPs, have the potential to address a range of urban economic issues. As of late 2012, thirty-two U.S. states and Puerto Rico had enacted legislation enabling the use of PPPs. PPP enabling laws address such issues as the treatment of unsolicited PPP proposals, prior legislative approval of PPP contracts, and the mixing of public and private funds. We utilize 13 key elements of PPP enabling laws to develop an index reflecting the degree to which a state’s law is encouraging or discouraging of private infrastructure investment. We examine why states pass such laws, and why some states pass legislation that is relatively more favorable to private investment. We consider demand side, supply side, and political/institutional drivers of passage. Vehicle registration growth and greater traffic congestion both increase the likelihood of passage, as does political agreement between a state’s executive and legislative branches. Traffic congestion, growth in per-capita income, and the percent of Republicans in the state’s House of Representatives all increase a law’s favorability to private investment. There is little indication that traditional public finance variables, such as federal highway aid, affect the likelihood of passage or the favorability of a state’s PPP enabling law.     

Foreign banks and short-term macroeconomic fluctuations: Do financial development and regions matter?

In this paper, we investigate the association between bank integration, measured with the share of foreign banks in the banking industry, and macroeconomic volatility in emerging economies. We find a negative and significant relationship between bank integration and short-run fluctuations in output, consumption and investment, controlling for financial development, bank concentration and the real effective exchange rate. However, this relationship is found to be positive at high levels of financial development. We also explore the association at the regional level and show that the presence of foreign banks in Latin America is negatively and significantly correlated with macroeconomic volatility both in normal times and times of crisis. Despite widespread concerns in emerging Europe, which experienced greater financial vulnerability during the global financial crisis, we find no significant association between growth volatilities and bank integration.     

新型城镇化视角下开发性PPP的实施路径

中国已迈入高质量发展的新型城镇化阶段。随着政府职能转变和可融资空间的受限,传统的政府投资模式已经不可持续。近年来兴起的PPP模式在一定程度上缓解了基础设施建设的融资困境,对提高公共服务质量和效率产生了积极影响,但难以满足新型城镇化对整体性、协同性和系统性的要求。作为传统PPP模式在中国的创新性实践,开发性PPP基于产城融合、平台生态、多元共治、区域价值等理论,对主体功能设计、社会资本方遴选、项目运营管理以及区域协同发展等方面做出新的制度安排和策略选择,能更好地契合新型城镇化高质量发展的战略导向和现实需要。     

The Impact of Short‐ and Long‐run Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Investment: A Panel Study of Industrial Countries*

We examine the relationship between aggregate investment and exchange rate uncertainty in the G7, using panel estimation and decomposition of volatility derived from the components generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (GARCH) model. Our dynamic panel approach takes account of potential cross‐sectional heterogeneity, which can lead to bias in estimation. We find that for a poolable subsample of European countries, it is the transitory and not the permanent component of volatility which adversely affects investment. To the extent that short‐run uncertainty in the CGARCH model characterizes higher frequency shocks generated by volatile short‐term capital flows, these are most deleterious for investment.     

机构投资者、会计稳健性与企业投资效率——来自中国A股市场的经验证据

选取2006—2014年度沪深A股8972个公司年度数据作为样本,对机构投资者、会计稳健性与企业投资效率三者之间的关系进行研究,结果表明：会计稳健性显著地改善了企业投资效率;相比于交易型机构投资者,稳定型机构投资者促进会计稳健性改善企业投资效率的功效更强。研究结论验证了会计稳健性改善企业投资效率的定价与治理功能的对称性,并证实了机构投资者促进会计稳健性,进而改善企业投资效率的定价与治理功能的观点。     

分类基础设施投资与城市化进程的相关性分析及实证

旨在从分类基础设施投资与城市化进程之间的相关性分析出发,进一步研究各类基础设施投资对城市化进程的影响程度,以便通过比较不同类型基础设施投资对城市化进程的影响或贡献程度来引导各级政府在制定基础设施规划时有所侧重,并对在投资计划中合理划分各类基础设施的比例起到一定的指导作用.还利用全国和重庆市的各分类基础设施投资统计数据对其与城市化进程的贡献度进行了实证分析.     

区域创新能力对经济发展质量提升的驱动作用研究

创新驱动是提高经济发展质量的第一动力,推动高质量发展的关键是通过创新提升经济效率。河南全要素生产率代表的经济发展质量与多层面区域创新能力(包括创新基础条件、创新投入、产出与创新制度等)的相互影响关系实证计量分析的结果表明,区域创新能力与经济发展质量间存在较为显著的长期因果关系,河南创新能力每增加一个百分点,经济发展质量相应提升0.6976%。同时还发现区域创新基础条件改善、制度创新能力提升与经济发展质量间存在的正向效应关系最为明显,而区域创新投入因与区域创新能力提升并不明显表现为同步关系,使其对经济发展质量的影响具有一定的滞后性。基于上述研究,促进区域发展质量提升应该强调战略新兴产业和高技术产业对产业优化的引领导向,进一步加大创新投入,促进企业创新主体作用发挥,持续强化区域创新活动的高水平人才支撑,推进制度创新,进一步深化科技体制改革。     

Optimal public debt redux

We examine the role played by government investment in infrastructure in determining the optimal quantity of public debt in a heterogeneous agent economy with incomplete insurance markets. Calibrating our model to the key aggregate and distributional moments of the U.S. economy for the period 1990–2015, we show that (i) the inclusion of infrastructure, and (ii) transitional dynamics between stationary states critically affect the characterization of the optimal level of public debt. Our results indicate that the inclusion of public infrastructure in the model specification implies a lower optimal debt level relative to the specification without infrastructure, both when comparing stationary equilibria and when accounting for transitional dynamics. When welfare comparisons are made by comparing stationary equilibria, we find that it is optimal for the government to accumulate assets (public surplus). However, once transitional dynamics are accounted for, accumulating debt becomes optimal, with the optimal share implied by our model being significantly higher than the average public debt-GDP ratio for the U.S. observed during our sample period.     

The estimation of residential property values around transit station sites in Washington,D.C.

The author examines in this study the relationship between public investment in METRO and property values in several neighborhoods in Washington, D.C., in order to determine if public investment in heavy rail transit systems increases residential property values. In order to examine this relationship, a hedonic price equation which included a dummy independent variable was estimated. Analysis of the data revealed a significant direct relationship between the opening of METRO and residential property values. Therefore, it can be concluded that public investment in METRO caused property values to increase around station site areas.     

我国物流运输基础设施BOT模式融资问题研究

在物流系统中,物流基础设施包括运输基础设施、通信基础设施和商业基础设施三个方面.物流运输基础设施是指道路、铁路、港口、机场和物流中心等,在物流体系的建设中起着基础性的作用.完善的物流基础设施,特别是运输物流基础设施,需要大量的公共资金的投入,但国家的基建资金有限,单纯的国家财政投入显然不能满足物流需求的增长.因此,采用BOT方式进行物流交通基础设施融资,可以不通过财政拨款进行物流运输基础设施建设,使资金缺乏的情况得以解决.