Evaluating Product Plans Using Real Options

Product planning helps a company to strategically plan its current and future product platforms and offer product variants in the marketplace. Product platforming is widely touted as a successful strategy for mass customization. However, due diligence should be exercised before implementing any product platform strategy. The product planning exercise should account for future uncertainties. Traditional financial tools such as the net present value (NPV) are static since they do not compensate for any exogenous and endogenous uncertainties during the course of the project. The crux of the problem lies in the evaluation model that is used for evaluating the product planning projects. While many view uncertainties in a product planning project as problematic, it can also be viewed as a source of new opportunities. We argue that uncertainties should be an integral part of the evaluation model. If the future possibilities (or strategic options) are not considered in the evaluation model, a corporation may face a “myopic syndrome”.

In this article, we consider two important product planning decisions—platform decisions and product variant decisions. The platform decision involves strategic selection of a concept product platform from various possible alternative concept product platforms. The product variant decision involves deciding how long a company should continue to offer its current product variant in the marketplace and whether the existing product variant should be discontinued, scaled down, or scaled up with additional product features. To address the two aforementioned decisions, we developed a real options–based methodology that considers technical, project implementation, and market-related uncertainties. The proposed methodology uses a binomial and quadranomial lattice approach to build a decision tree. Product planning decisions at various decision tree nodes are evaluated using a risk-neutral option valuation methodology. We demonstrate the working of the proposed methodology using an illustrative example.     

Effects of Organizational and Decision-Maker Factors on New Product Risk Taking

Using samples of evening MBA students having considerable managerial experience, two experiments were conducted, through which we explore the effects of organizational and decision-maker factors on managers' new product investment decisions. Subjects were asked to choose among new product development projects having equal investments and expected values but differing degrees of risk. Riskier projects were chosen by managers whose organizationally imposed goals were based on aspirational versus survival reference points, whose prior project decisions had resulted in the accumulation of additional financial resources, for whom prior project outcomes were attributed to the manager's guidance of the project versus competitive factors, and by managers whose propensities to take risks were higher. These results have important implications for the design and staffing of new product decision processes, for the creation of organizational cultures that foster new product risk taking, and for other organizational practices.     

Does Strategic Planning Enhance or Impede Innovation and Firm Performance?*

Does strategic planning enhance or impede innovation and firm performance? The current literature provides contradictory views. This study extends the resource‐advantage theory to examine the conditions in which strategic planning increases or decreases the number of new product development projects and firm performance. The authors test the theoretical model by collecting data from 227 firms. The empirical evidence suggests that more strategic planning and more new product development (NPD) projects lead to better firm performance. Firms with organizational redundancy benefit more from strategic planning than firms with less organizational redundancy. Increasing R&D intensity boosts both the number of NPD projects and firm performance. Strategic planning is more effective in larger firms with higher R&D intensity for increasing the number of NPD projects. The results reported in this study also consist of several findings that challenge the traditional views of strategic planning. The evidence suggests that strategic planning impedes, not enhances, the number of NPD projects. Larger firms benefit less, not more, from strategic planning for improving firm performance. Larger firms do not necessarily create more NPD projects. Increasing organizational redundancy has no effect on the number of NPD projects. These empirical results provide important strategic implications. First, managers should be aware that, in general, formal strategic planning decreases the number of NPD projects for innovation management. Improvised rather than planned activities are more conducive to creating NPD project ideas. Moreover, innovations tend to emerge from improvisational processes, during which the impromptu execution of NPD activities without planning spurs “thinking outside the box,” which enhances the process of creating NPD project ideas. Therefore, more flexible strategic plans that accommodate potential improvisation may be needed in NPD management since innovation‐related activities cannot be planned precisely due to the unexpected jolts and contingencies of the NPD process. Second, large firms with high levels of R&D intensity can overcome the negative effect of strategic planning on the number of NPD projects. Specifically, a firm's abundant resources, when allocated and deployed for NPD activities, signal the high priority and importance of the NPD activities and thus motivate employees to acquire, collect, and gather customer and technical knowledge, which leads to creating more NPD projects. Finally, managers must understand that managing strategic planning and generating NPD project ideas are beneficial to the ultimate outcome of firm performance despite the adverse relationship between strategic planning and the number of NPD projects.     

Exploring Portfolio Decision‐Making Processes*

Portfolio management is the set of activities that allows a firm to select, develop, and commercialize a pipeline of new products aligned with the firm's strategy that will enable it to continue to grow profitably over the long term. To appropriately manage the firm's new product portfolio, decisions must be made about which projects to fund, to what levels, at what point in time. Previous research has investigated portfolio management decisions as individually discrete decisions. Significant streams of research have investigated both project selection and project termination decisions. This research project shows, however, that portfolio decision making may be better understood if it is considered as an integrated system of processes that considers these decisions simultaneously, along with other decisions such as those to continue a project with reduced funding. Using in‐depth data from four diverse case studies, we use a grounded theory approach to develop a general model of how firms make new product portfolio decisions. According to the findings from these cases, effective portfolio decision‐making processes produce a portfolio mindset, focus effort on the right projects, and allow agile decision making across the portfolio's set of projects. Effective portfolio decision making is the result of the interaction between three types of decision‐making processes that managers use in making decisions: evidence‐, power‐, and opinion‐based. Being able to use each of these types of processes to make decisions depends upon having the data inputs that they require. Three domain‐based decision input‐generating processes (i.e., cross‐functional collaboration, practices of critical thinking, and practices of market immersion) are associated with making evidence‐based portfolio decisions. In addition, organizational politics produces the inputs that are associated with power‐based portfolio decision making, while managerial intuition is associated with opinion‐based portfolio decision making. Firm cultural factors, including trust, collective ambition, and leadership style, are associated with how these evidence‐, power‐ and opinion‐based processes are combined into an overall portfolio decision making process, and whether the firm's processes are more rational and objectively made, or more politically and intuitively made. The article presents propositions for how the decision‐making processes interact in their associations with decision‐making effectiveness.     

NPD Planning Activities and Innovation Performance: The Mediating Role of Process Management and the Moderating Effect of Product Innovativeness

The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of planning and control on the performance of new product development (NPD) projects. It is hypothesized that (1) thorough business planning at the beginning of a project creates a basis for proficient project and risk planning; (2) the proficiency of project planning, risk planning, and process management activities each improves innovation performance directly; (3) the relationship of planning and success is mediated by process management; and (4) the strength of these relationships is moderated by uncertainty, as determined by the degree of innovativeness. To test the hypotheses, data from 132 NPD projects were collected and analyzed. A measurement model was used to establish valid and reliable constructs, a path model to test the main effects, and a multiple-moderated regression analysis for the moderator hypotheses. The results suggest that the proficiency of project planning and process management is important predictors of NPD performance. Specifically, project risk planning and goal stability throughout the development process are found to enhance performance significantly. Business planning proves to be an important antecedent of the more development-related planning activities such as project planning and risk planning. Additionally, the results lend support to the hypotheses regarding the mediating role of process management in the planning–performance relationship. Project planning and risk planning support the quality of process management and thus impact NPD performance indirectly. Only to a limited extent are the strengths of these relationships moderated by the degree of innovativeness of the NPD project.     

An Investment Analysis and Decision Making Framework for Real Estate Development*

Recent research analyzing real estate investment decisionmaking has concentrated upon existing income properties. Projects planned for future development have been analyzed as though they were completed and generating rental income. Such analysis has not considered the impact of development period decisions upon operating cash flow and hence project value. This paper proposes a framework for investment analysis which accurately reflects the interrelatedness of the development and operating periods of the real estate development process. A stochastic Markov process is used to develop a model which treats the development and operating periods as an integrated system. The resulting model allows project investment decisions to be made on the basis of a minimum expected profitability index distribution and/or terminal value.     

基于WBS的建设工程监理动态控制研究

建设工程监理是一种以严密制度为特征的综合管理行为,传统的管理模式已不能胜任现代工程的新特点。为了合理地进行计划、组织、协调、控制,监理企业必须结合现代工程项目的管理方法,充分利用现代项目管理软件进行控制。文中引入项目管理的系统方法,采用工作分解结构（WBS）方法,对工程项目进行分解,提出一种监理工作的明确表示法。在此基础上结合P3e／c的项目管理信息系统,实现建设工程监理的动态控制。     

Methodology for increasing the adoption of R & D project selection models

Although some studies and experiences have shown that R & D project selection models can be potentially useful decision aids, their adoption and routine use is not widespread. This lack of usage may be a consequence of the lack of attention which model builders have traditionally given to the prevailing adoption attitudes of R & D managers. A design methodology centering around the measurement of adoption attitudes has been developed and used by the authors. The methodology consists of procedures for analyzing the organizational climate relative to project selection model usage, developing an acceptable model form relative to the organizational climate, and inducing the adoption of this model form within the climate. Three case applications of the methodology are described in which negative-to-positive shifts in adoption attitudes occurred and project selection models were adopted for long-term use. These results indicate that the use of this general methodology may lead to increased formal adoption and widespread usage of project selection model forms in R & D.     

How Formal Control Influences Decision‐Making Clarity and Innovation Performance

Implementing formal planning instruments such as the stage‐and‐gate‐type system (SGS) and project management (PM) have long been seen as the key to new product development (NPD) success. They create the structure needed for managing NPD activities, supporting coordination among functional groups, reducing uncertainty and error, and assuring time and cost efficiency. But recent research presents ambiguous results, suggesting that SGS and PM as formal controls can also have a negative effect. Integrating ideas from three literatures—i.e., NPD management, organization control theory, and technical control theory—the present study assesses NPD programs in terms of three perspectives: (1) the formal control mechanisms used for managing NPD programs—specifically SGS, which is mainly seen as a higher organizational level approach used for guiding and implementing a portfolio of NPD projects, and PM, which is a precise formal control mechanism relevant for managing specific problems at a single project level; (2) the immediate outcome of the application of formal controls, i.e. decision‐making clarity (DMC); and (3) degree of NPD innovativeness, a key contingency hypothesized to impact the efficacy of formal controls. For the empirical analysis, data are collected through a survey of 162 corporate NPD programs (Austria and Denmark, manufactured goods and services) where a total of 1274 respondents provide information relevant to their position. Hierarchical regression analysis is used to test the relationships. Results indicate that the performance effect of NPD formal control is fully mediated by DMC. Further, of the six hypothesized outcome relationships, four are fully supported. Both SGS and PM are effective systems for managing NPD when degree of innovativeness is not taken into account. PM, however, loses its efficacy at higher degrees of NPD program innovativeness while SGS continues to work at achieving positive DMC at the radical end of the innovativeness spectrum. Analysis of interaction effects indicates that for more innovative NPD programs, best results are achieved when companies implement an interactive system of both SGS and PM, where the two systems complement each other.     

Methodology for increasing the adoption of R & D project selection models

Although some studies and experiences have shown that R & D project selection models can be potentially useful decision aids, their adoption and routine use is not widespread. This lack of usage may be a consequence of the lack of attention which model builders have traditionally given to the prevailing adoption attitudes of R & D managers. A design methodology centering around the measurement of adoption attitudes has been developed and used by the authors. The methodology consists of procedures for analyzing the organizational climate relative to project selection model usage, developing an acceptable model form relative to the organizational climate, and inducing the adoption of this model form within the climate. Three case applications of the methodology are described in which negative-to-positive shifts in adoption attitudes occurred and project selection models were adopted for long-term use. These results indicate that the use of this general methodology may lead to increased formal adoption and widespread usage of project selection model forms in R & D.     

The Fuzzy Front End of New Product Development for Discontinuous Innovations: A Theoretical Model

The fuzzy front end of the new product development (NPD) process, the time and activity prior to an organization's first screen of a new product idea, is the root of success for firms involved with discontinuous new product innovation. Yet understanding the fuzzy front‐end process has been a challenge for academics and organizations alike. While approaches to handling the fuzzy front end have been suggested in the literature, these tend to be relevant largely for incremental new product situations where organizations are aware of and are involved in the NPD process from the project's beginning. For incremental new products, structured problems or opportunities typically are laid out at the organizational level and are directed to individuals for information gathering. In the case of discontinuous innovations, however, we propose that the process works in the opposite direction—that is, that the timing and likelihood of organizational‐level involvement is more likely to be at the discretion of individuals. Such individuals perform a boundary‐spanning function by identifying and by understanding emerging patterns in the environment, with little or no direction from the organization. Often, these same individuals also act as gatekeepers by deciding on the value to the organization of externally derived information, as well as whether such information will be shared. Consequently for discontinuous innovations, information search and related problems/opportunities are unstructured and are at the individual level during the fuzzy front end. As such, the direction of initial decisions about new environmental information tends to be inward, toward the corporate decision‐making level, rather than the other way around. In order to cope with the special and complex nature of decisions made at the fuzzy front end of NPD for discontinuous innovations, this process is detailed as a series of decisions occurring over three proposed interfaces: boundary, gatekeeping, and project. The difference between each interface lies in the nature of the decisions made: At the boundary and gatekeeping interfaces, the primary impetus is individual‐level decision‐making; at the project interface, decisions occur at the organizational level. By articulating these processes in the form of a model, we achieve two objectives: (1) We outline a more detailed and comprehensive approach to understanding the nature of the front‐end decision making process for discontinuous innovations; and (2) we detail specific propositions for future research on each stage of the process.     

Project 98在建筑施工计划管理中的应用

Ｐｒｏｊｅｃｔ９８是项目管理软件，在建筑施工生产过程中借助于它进行计划的安排、调整和控制，可以取得较好的经济和社会效益。章结合在南京太阳宫广场施工项目中运用Ｐｒｏｊｅｃｔ９８的体会，论述它的建筑施工过程计划前、计划中和计划后的应用。     

The application of a research project selection method

This paper describes the application of a linear programming model to project selection and resource allocation problems in two industrial R & D laboratories. Mathematical models have not been widely used in practice because of the inherent uncertainty of research. The model discussed here yields information about the outcome of decisions under conditions of uncertainty. The elements of the model are developed, using simple examples, and the form of the complete model outlined. Benefit evaluation is carried out using probabilistic networks and uncertainty in benefits included by utilizing the concept of certainty equivalence. The use of the model in practical situations is discussed, with examples of the information obtained from the solution, and sensitivity studies to investigate the uncertain environment are described. The result is a flexible model, which produces information necessary for planning purposes and which is acceptable to practising R & D Managers.     

From Experience: Linking Product Innovation to Business Growth

Industry pundits often take managers to task for their supposedly myopic approach to planning and decision making. These sweeping generalizations gloss over the complex challenges confronting the managers who must ensure that their firms enjoy ongoing revenue growth opportunities. In place of pat answers, those managers require analysis and planning tools that offer clearer insights into the effects their decisions have on their firms' continued business success. As Marv Patterson points out, however, determining the effects of product innovation decisions poses a particular challenge for management, because the consequences of those decisions typically do not become evident until long after the decisions have been made. Presenting a conceptual model that links product innovation activities to revenue growth, he identifies three drivers of revenue growth, and explains how these growth drivers are linked by a set of mathematical relationships that can be presented in the form of an enterprise-specific growth table. He applies the model to three types of enterprises, and he discusses the key implications that the model holds for the business leaders who must keep shareholders satisfied. He depicts the relationship between a company and its customers as a closed-loop system in which the company converts labor, parts, and material into products, which it delivers to customers. The company invests a portion of the resulting revenue stream in the resources that generate new products. By effectively and continually applying a sufficiently large investment in this innovation engine, the company creates an ongoing stream of new products. The revenues from these new products more than offset the drop in revenues from products that are approaching obsolescence. He identifies three factors that drive revenue growth from these investments in the innovation engine: the fraction of revenues invested in product innovation, new product revenue gain, and the behavior of revenue over time for a particular business. Using a graph called a product vintage chart, he demonstrates that for a large company, the revenue contributions of a particular new-product year (or vintage) fall into a regular pattern over time, which enables a company to determine mathematical relationships for revenue growth as a function of R&D investment and new product revenue growth. In this way, senior managers can gain clearer understanding of the interplay between product innovation, R&D investment, revenue growth, and profitability over time.     

An Application of Value-of-Information to Decision Process Reengineering

Value of information (VOI) methods were used to guide changes to recurrent organizational decision processes under a reengineering effort at a major automobile manufacturer to reduce supply and demand imbalances involving capacity for parts and products. We modeled representative decisions assuming that they would be made with and without the benefit of improved information flows and calculated the resulting increase in expected value. By factoring in the entire range of decisions affected by a process change, we scaled the value of each organizational change to a life cycle value. The results quantified the impact of organizational changes in order to refine and prioritize a portfolio of change projects.     

Learning processes in municipal broadband projects: An absorptive capacity perspective

Effective knowledge management is important to the success of information technology projects. This research applies the integrated lens of the absorptive capacity theory and the social process model of information system development projects to examine the dynamic of knowledge activities concerning broadband infrastructure development in the context of municipal broadband networks. The research questions are: (1) What is the extent of the dynamic of knowledge activities involved in the development process?, (2) What are the events that trigger knowledge activities in municipal broadband development?, and (3) How does a city create and utilize new knowledge in the development process? This study examines municipal wireless projects in three cities (Chaska, MN; Hermosa Beach, CA; and Fredericton, Canada). Events that trigger knowledge activities are assignment of personnel, physical system construction, performance problems, resistance, and reassignment of organizational roles. Four factors that influence knowledge activities and project performance are the dynamic of technology development, partnership commitments, limitation of external knowledge and learning-by-doing, and political dynamics. The study has policy implications for cities that are in the process of planning and deployment. A good project planning, user expectation management, systematic performance evaluation, a careful partner selection process, and the use of service level agreements are important to project success. In addition, cities need to take into consideration that the technology is not a plug and play technology and that considerable efforts are needed to integrate the technology with other solutions to deliver broadband services as well as to configure the system according to topologies, street conditions, buildings, density of trees, among others.     

Organizational structuring and project team structuring in integrated product development project

For a superior project result, integrated product development (IPD) project need to have stage-specific management approaches where the front-end structuring supports and strengthens the management of the project and the team during the execution stages. In the current study we focus on relationships on the organizational level variable during the front-end stage of the project, organizational structuring, with a project execution level variable, project team structuring to study the impact on product design glitches and project performance in the concurrent project environment. We hypothesize that managing the overall product development projects with integrated organizational structuring at the front stage and project team structuring during the development and project implementation stages can lead to reduced product glitches which can enhance the overall IPD project performance. We test our hypothetical model using data collected from the US automotive industry. Our data supports all the three proposed hypotheses. Discussion and implication of the empirical results, limitations of the current study, and recommendations for future studies are also provided.     

Upper management control of new product development projects and project performance

While some degree of freedom and flexibility is an essential ingredient to productive cross‐functional NPD teams, upper‐managers are faced with the challenge of instituting effective control mechanisms which head projects in the right strategic direction, monitor progress toward organizational and project goals, and allow for adjustments in the project if necessary. But too much or the wrong type of control may constrain the team's creativity, impede their progress, and injure their ultimate performance. Therefore, this study examines formal and interactive control mechanisms available to upper‐managers in controlling new product development (NPD) projects, and the relationship between these mechanisms and NPD project performance. Formal output and process controls are examined which consist of the setting and monitoring of outcomes, such as goals, schedule and budgets, and of processes and procedures, respectively. This study also looks at how the effectiveness of these control mechanisms may be contingent upon the degree of innovativeness in the project and the degree to which the project is part of a broad product program. In addition, the use of formal rewards for achieving team performance as opposed to rewards for individual achievement is investigated. Lastly, interactive controls are examined which consist of upper‐managers interacting directly with project members in the development of strategy and operational goals and procedures prior to the start of the project, and upper‐managers intervening in project decision‐making. Questionnaire data are collected on 95 projects across a variety of industries. The findings suggest that while NPD projects teams need some level of strategic direction concerning the objectives to be accomplished and the procedures to be followed, upper‐level managers can exert too much control. In particular, the findings showed a negative association between the use of upper manager‐imposed process controls and project performance. The findings also indicated that the degree to which upper‐managers intervened in project‐level decisions during the project was negatively related to project performance. However, the results showed support for the notion that early and interactive decision‐making on control mechanisms is important for effective projects. In particular, early team member and upper‐management involvement in the setting of operational controls, such as goals and procedures for monitoring and evaluating the project, was positively associated with project performance. This study provides additional insight into our understanding of upper‐management support in new product development. The study suggests that upper‐managers can over control with the wrong type of controls, and suggests effective ways of implementing participative and interactive control mechanisms.     

The Effects of Environmental Turbulence on New Product Development Strategy Planning

Managers need guidance on how to cope with turbulent environments in order to improve corporate performance. Research on environmental turbulence has suggested that firms adopt a less centralized, more organic structure in dynamic, uncertain environments. Little work has been done specifically, however, on how environmental turbulence affects strategy planning for new product development (NPD). In this article, we specify a baseline model with firm innovativeness, market orientation and top management risk taking as antecedents to NPD speed and corporate strategic planning; these in turn are modeled as antecedents to NPD program (not project) performance. Two conceptualizations of the role of environmental turbulence are examined: (1) that market turbulence and technological turbulence are additional direct antecedents to NPD program performance; and (2) that the baseline model is moderated by turbulence (that is, that the strengths of the paths differ depending on levels of turbulence). A cross-sectional survey methodology including four diverse industries [automotive, electronics, publishing, and manufacturing/research and development (R&D) laboratories] was used to test the hypotheses. The latter conceptualization is supported. In particular, the paths from innovativeness to strategic planning and from risk taking to NPD speed are significantly greater in highly turbulent environments. A set of managerial recommendations and implications are provided. First, managers must recognize the possible improvements in new product performance by actively including NPD personnel in corporate strategic planning and also by involving corporate planners in NPD activities. Second, managers also should recognize that turbulent environments heighten the need to make risky investments, and sometimes, risky decisions; risk-taking decisions ought to be encouraged in such environments.     

Contributing beyond the call of duty: examining the role of culture in fostering citizenship behavior and success in project-based work

Shifting goals, priorities and evolving customer demands require an exceptional effort, beyond the call of duty, on the part of employees to increase the likelihood for successful implementation of technologically driven projects. Our model posits that citizenship behavior, which captures individuals' behavior that goes above and beyond prescribed roles, effects project success and is influenced by the culture that exists in the project. We provide support for the model utilizing 222 participants in 71 product development, IT implementation and engineering projects, originating in firms from various industries in the United States using structural equation modeling. Owing to the constraints typically facing project managers, in terms of personnel availability and control over rewards, our findings suggest that project culture can be used by managers as an alternative lever to trigger employees' citizenship behavior, which in turn drives success. We provide valuable implications for individuals assigned to lead projects, who are concerned with aligning project culture with citizenship behavior, as part of their planning activities.