COMPARATIVE FISCAL RESPONSE EFFECTS OF DEBT RELIEF: AN APPLICATION TO AFRICAN HIPCS

As part of the efforts of the international donor community to scale up aid to Africa, substantial debt relief has been granted in recent years through the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative and its successor, the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative. This paper tries to assess, for a sample of 24 African countries that have at least reached decision point status in the HIPC Initiative, to what extent this debt relief has created fiscal space in recipient country budgets, and what, on average, the actual fiscal response effects have been, relative to other types of aid. Inspired by the fiscal response literature, we model public finance behaviour as a system of structural equations and estimate the reduced form parameters in a Vector Autoregressive framework. In general, we are unable to find evidence that debt relief might provoke no or even perverse fiscal responses. On average, debt relief affects public finance behaviour in a desired way, with effects being most similar to those of its most direct substitute, programme grants.     

Foreign aid,government behaviour,and fiscal policy in Papua New Guinea

The paper explores a number of long standing questions surrounding how foreign aid has influenced the fiscal behaviour of the PNG Government. This includes whether grant aid has encouraged the PNG government to be less fiscally responsible and accumulate higher levels of foreign debt; whether grant aid has tended to lower the PNG government's domestic revenue raising efforts; whether grant aid has drawn government expenditures away from key service delivery sectors; and whether budget support and project and program aid have had differential effects with respect to any of the foregoing questions. The analysis reveals several important insights regarding the interplay between foreign aid and public sector fiscal behaviour including evidence that grant aid has been an important source of debt reduction during this period. However, grant aid has tended to erode the domestic tax base, which has limited the government's ability to increase aggregate expenditure levels. Evidence is also found that suggests a significant portion of budget support was spent on key development sectors, although it also undermined domestic revenue collection. A number of policy implications follow.     

地方公债制度的引入与风险防范

在我国经济发展放缓的背景下,中央提出实行积极的财政政策。引入地方公债制度是我国推行积极财政政策的一个可行选择,然而,它的引入会带来一些潜在的风险。因此,我国地方公债的制度安排必须以债务风险控制为核心,遵循行政监管与市场化发行相结合的原则,建立健全政府信息公开制度,完善政府投融资体制和投资决策责任制,这也是建立风险防范机制的主要内容。     

日本地方债制度及其变革分析

日本地方债发行数量巨大,占国内生产总值比重高,已经成为地方债依存比重最高的发达国家。由地方债许可制、地方财政计划以及财政再建团体制度构建起来的日本地方债制度是一种由国家主导的债务运行模式。其显著特点是地方债的资金来源结构严重依赖政府资金,通过政府交付税来确保地方债本利偿还财源,从而保证了债务的安全性,降低了债务风险,成为一种成本较低的融资方式。但也因此加重了中央政府的财政负担,弱化了监督动因,从而使日本地方债陷入"预算软弱约束"之中。其改革方向和总体趋势是市场化,在增强地方自立的背景下,建立与地方财政力相适应的举债制度,以提高地方财政的运行效率。     

Debt relief and fiscal sustainability

In this paper I analyze the relationship between fiscal policy,aggregate public sector debt sustainability, and debt relief. I develop a methodology to compute the fiscal policy path that is compatible with aggregate debt sustainability in the post-HIPC era. The model explicitly considers the role of domestic debt and quantifies the extent to which future debt sustainability depends on the availability of concessional loans at subsidized interest rates. The working of the model is illustrated for the case of Nicaragua, a country that in 2002 had one of the highest net present value of public external debt to GDP ratios. JEL no. F3, F34, F35.     

中国地方政府债务违约风险评估——基于债务可持续性分析框架

结合中国地方政府财政反应特征,文章在债务可持续性分析框架中,首次识别了基础盈余主动调整的有效性条件作为分析前提,进而完善了债务不可持续性的定义内涵和度量方法,最终建立了地方政府债务违约风险评估模型。凭借此模型,对中国地方政府债务违约风险进行了评估,主要结论如下：在经济增速不稳定背景下,施行顺周期财政政策的中国地方政府,容易落入基础盈余主动调整无效的境况,因而在对地方政府债务可持续性进行分析时,有必要考虑基础盈余主动调整的有效性;通过检验发现,新构造的债务不可持续概率和条件期望债务空间指标,均能较好反映地方政府债务违约风险,而单纯的债务率指标对地方政府债务违约风险无解释力;在2019年,天津、贵州和青海等地已处于财政疲劳引起的债务不可持续状态,内蒙古等六省的条件期望债务空间不足20%,其余省份的条件期望债务空间仍相对充裕;最后,通过考察债务可持续性的改善渠道又进一步发现,财政透明度的提高可有效降低地方政府债务违约风险。     

FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY AND THE FISCAL REACTION FUNCTION FOR SOUTH AFRICA: ASSESSMENT OF THE PAST AND FUTURE POLICY APPLICATIONS

How does the South African government react to changes in its debt position? In investigating this question, this paper estimates fiscal reaction functions using various methods (ordinary least squares, threshold autoregressive, state‐space modelling and vector error‐correction model). This paper finds that since 1946, the South African government has run sustainable fiscal policy by reducing the primary deficit or increasing the surplus in response to rising debt. Looking ahead, this paper considers the use of fiscal reaction functions to forecast the debt/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio and gauging the likelihood of achieving policy goals with the aid of probabilistic simulations and fan charts.     

Twenty-year review of South African fiscal policy: A tale of two sustainabilities

In 2014 democracy in South Africa was 20 years old. The democratic government in 1994 inherited both a high and increasing public debt/gross domestic product ratio and significant development backlogs. The government had to establish fiscal sustainability, yet also pursue development in a sustainable way. This article explores the government's performance in reconciling fiscal sustainability with sustainable development. The article shows that fiscal policy has been sustainable over the 20 years, with some risks appearing towards the end, and that the government pursued sustainable development through reallocating resources within the budget and by spending more in real terms. Three phases can be identified: 1994–2000, 2001–08 and 2009–13. However, poor service delivery and low levels of government investment during the 20 years threaten to undermine economic growth. Lower growth consequently threatens the sustainability of both fiscal policy and development, which, in turn, again undermines growth prospects. Hence, the article also identifies key future challenges.     

Assessing Local Government Debt Risks in China: A Case Study of Local Government Financial Vehicles

Strong credit expansion in China after the recent global financial crisis has brought local government financial vehicles (LGFV) into the spotlight. Rapid growth of LGFV has triggered concern about local government indebtedness, banks' asset quality and, more broadly, China's medium‐term financial stability and sovereign risk. This paper constructs a unique firm‐level dataset to evaluate the country's local government debt. We find an uneven distribution of LGFV, which are concentrated in the coastal areas, and a deterioration of their debt repaying ability from 2010 to 2012. We use principal component analysis (PCA) along with multivariate discriminate analysis (MDA) to identify the credit risk of LGFV based on conventional financial variables as well as local governments' fiscal status. We also estimate the safe boundaries of debt bearing at the provincial government level. The estimations reveal more severe local government debt risks in the middle‐western provinces and higher risks associated with LGFV at the municipal and county levels. Although it is very unlikely that there will be a national debt crisis in China, the high risk of LGFV should be noted and effectively controlled by improving the fiscal transparency of local governments and reforming the fiscal system.     

Japanese government debt and sustainability of fiscal policy

We construct quarterly series of the revenues, expenditures, and debt outstanding for Japan from 1980 to 2010, and analyze the sustainability of the fiscal policy. We pursue three approaches to examine the sustainability. First, we calculate the minimum tax rate that stabilizes the debt to GDP ratio given the future government expenditures. Using 2010 as the base year, we find that the government revenue to GDP ratio must rise permanently to 40–47% (from the current 33%) to stabilize the debt to GDP ratio. Second, we estimate the response of the primary surplus when the debt to GDP ratio increases. We allow the relationship to fluctuate between two “regimes” using a Markov switching model. In both regimes, the primary surplus to GDP ratio fails to respond positively to debt, which suggests the process is explosive. Finally, we estimate a fiscal policy function and a monetary policy function with Markov switching. We find that the fiscal policy is “active” (the tax revenues do not rise when the debt increases) and the monetary policy is “passive” (the interest rate does not react to the inflation rate sufficiently) in both regimes. These results suggest that the current fiscal situation for the Japanese government is not sustainable.     

逆周期财政政策能够控制政府债务风险吗?——理论变迁与经验数据分析

文章基于经济理论变迁,梳理了近代以来西方预算平衡与政府债务理论变迁的主要趋势,探讨了古典经济学年度预算平衡理论与凯恩斯财政革命后的周期预算平衡理论,及其对政府债务风险管理的影响。在此基础上,文章使用跨国面板数据实证分析了发展中国家财政周期选择对政府债务风险的影响,研究发现采取逆周期财政政策的国家能够更好地约束债务风险,该实证结果在不同债务警戒标准下均保持稳健。当前,为了有效约束财政风险,我国应避免进入顺周期财政陷阱,建立可控债务风险的逆周期财政调控机制。     

Fiscal limits and sovereign default risk in Japan

It is widely known that Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio among OECD countries. If Japan’s national debt continues to balloon, fiscal crisis may occur in the future. This paper develops a closed economy model with defaultable government debt and conducts a simulation to investigate future sovereign debt risk.First, we estimate the fiscal limit which is defined as the sum of the discounted maximum fiscal surplus in all future periods. It is assumed that a partial default occurs when the amount of government debt exceeds the fiscal limit. We calculate the revenue-maximizing tax rate at the peak of the Laffer curve to derive the fiscal limit. As a result, the estimated average fiscal limit in Japan is much higher than that in Greece. In the Japanese economy, households are more patient and desire greater savings from greater discount factor derived from a lower real interest rate. Household saving habits support government bonds. This is the main reason why the Japanese government could have had a massive debt in addition to some room to raise the tax rate. Second, we simulate the model, using the estimated fiscal limit and non-linear computational methods. If the government debt-to-GDP ratio continues to increase for the next 20 years, the default probability will be over 10% and the sovereign risk premium will be approximately 2%. Furthermore, the default probability will reach approximately 80% and the sovereign risk premium will be 10% 30 years later.     

Fiscal sustainability across government tiers

This paper analyses how fiscal adjustment comes about when both central and sub-national governments are involved in consolidation. We test sustainability of public debt with a fiscal rule for both federal and regional government. Results for the German Länder show that lower tier governments bear a relatively smaller part of the burden of debt consolidation, if they consolidate at all. Most of the fiscal adjustment occurs via central government debt. In contrast, both the US federal and state levels contribute to consolidation of public finances.     

Covid-19, Economic Growth and South African Fiscal Policy

Following years of fast-rising debt levels, we show that the Covid-19 crisis worsened an already deteriorating fiscal position in South Africa. To restore fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the crisis some commentators argue that higher government expenditure will grow GDP sufficiently to stabilise the debt/GDP ratio. We reject this, showing that although a real increase in expenditure stimulates economic growth (a short-run, once-off effect), the public expenditure/GDP ratio exceeds the level at which an increase in the ratio positively impacts growth. We then explore the past efforts of government to maintain or restore fiscal sustainability by estimating a fiscal reaction function using a Markov-switching model. Following the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the budget, we subsequently establish the deficit, expenditure and revenue adjustments that the government will have to make to restore fiscal sustainability. Finally, we consider the merits of introducing a debt ceiling.     

财政分权，省级官员特征与地方政府债务规模——基于2010-2014年省级政府数据的实证分析

政府债务规模和风险是一级政府关注的重点问题。从财政分权和省级官员特征两个维度,本文考察了地方政府债务规模的影响因素,并在此基础上进一步研究财政分权程度和省级官员特征对地方政府债务规模的交互影响作用。通过2010-2014年30个省级政府的实证数据进行混合OLS回归,研究发现财政分权程度越高,地方政府债务规模越小。省级官员的年龄过大或过小都会使地方政府债务规模的减小,同时具有企业工作背景的省长和省委书记也会抑制地方政府债务规模的扩张,并且财政分权和省级官员特征对地方政府债务规模的影响是相互促进的。据此提出建议,合理控制地方政府债务膨胀。     

Nominal debt and inflation stabilization

The “fiscal theory of currency crises” ( Daniel 2001 ; Corsetti and Ma?kowiak 2005, 2006 ) claims that with long‐term nominal debt, a government can delay the timing of an inevitable currency crisis that results from a fiscal shock. The present paper shows that, in contrast, long‐term nominal debt might have destabilizing effects when a government introduces an inflation stabilization policy. It is shown that a stabilization policy that is successful in the absence of long‐term nominal debt can cause a crisis when long‐term nominal debt exists. The model implies that a government with a large stock of long‐term nominal debt must overcome a high fiscal hurdle for a successful stabilization policy. This difficulty is avoidable if long‐term debt is indexed to inflation.     

Can good events lead to bad outcomes? Endogenous banking crises and fiscal policy responses

In this paper, we study the impact of changes in the urban labor force and foreign direct investment on the banking sector, using a dynamic general equilibrium model with a financial sector. Numerical simulations are performed using stylized Chinese data, and bank failures are generated through increases in the growth rate of the labor force, a revaluation of the exchange rate, or an increase in debt issue to finance the government deficit, as compared to a benchmark scenario in which banks remain solvent. Thus bank failures can result from what might seem to be either beneficial economic trends or correct monetary and fiscal policies. We introduce fiscal policies that modify relative factor prices by lowering the capital tax rate and increasing the tax rate on labor. Such policies can prevent banking failures by raising the return to capital. It is shown that such fiscal policies are, in the short run, welfare reducing.     

Fiscal sustainability in the wake of the economic crisis in Korea

The total amount of government debt was expected to rise sharply over the following several years in the wake of the Korean financial and economic crisis in 1997, raising concern about the sustainability of government deficits and fiscal consolidation. This paper provides an overview of Korea’s fiscal stance after the financial crisis and the policy implications for fiscal consolidation by assessing fiscal sustainability. Sustainability tests are carried out and show that Korean fiscal policy for the period 1970–1999 should be regarded as sustainable. Indicators of sustainability are also measured to that Korean fiscal policy for the period 1970–1996 is sustainable. However, both the primary and tax gap indicators with a sharp rise in the debt ratios are shown to be worsening since 1997 indicating increasingly possible unsustainable fiscal policies. It implies that the current primary deficit is too large and current taxes are too low to stabilize the debt ratio.     

Absence of safe assets and fiscal crisis

This paper develops a fiscal crisis model that explains a mechanism under which low interest rates can coexist with Japan's large outstanding debt. The key idea is that when there is a strong home bias in the asset portfolio of domestic bondholders, these investors turn out to have no access to any assets that hedge fiscal risk. This explains why domestic investors do not request a risk premium on government bonds. In this environment, the interest rate and the default probability are low, and the government can sustain its large debt even under adverse fiscal conditions. As the interest rate does not rise fully to reflect the risk premium, the low interest rate is not always a signal of sound fiscal conditions. The welfare implications of financial market reform are mixed. This reform can improve welfare so long as the government can sustain the debt, but at the same time, it makes it difficult to sustain the debt because the interest rate rises. Quantitative easing is effective in lowering the risk premium.     

主权政府债务规模影响因素的传导路径及定量分解——以美国为例

本文在前人研究的基础之上,总结了主权政府债务规模变动的主要影响因素及影响路径,并根据建立的政府债务理论模型,利用微分、积分和余值等数学方法将经济增长、通货膨胀、财政赤字及其他非常规财政因素对主权政府实际债务规模的变动进行了定量分解。最后,笔者对两次美国联邦政府债务急剧增长时期(1942～1955年和2007至今)的债务及相关数据进行了实证研究,以印证上述方法,结果发现,财政因素是美国政府债务规模急剧增长的主要原因,而面对同期的经济萧条和较高的债务负担,通货膨胀成为了政府削减债务最重要的工具。