大萧条与美国金融危机的比较

1929年的大萧条和2008年的金融危机是近百年来对美国乃至整个世界经济发展影响最为严重的两次危机.本文通过对两次金融危机的梳理,比较分析了二者在危机爆发过程、对经济的影响、所处的货币环境及相应的金融监管等方面的相似性和差异性,并提出制度性缺陷是两次危机爆发的主要根源这一观点.     

Financial Distress in Australian General Insurers

We develop and test a statistical model to identify Australian general insurers experiencing financial distress over the 1999–2001 period. Using a logit model and two measures of financial distress we are able to predict, with reasonable confidence, the insurers more likely to be distressed. They are generally small and have low return on assets and cession ratios. Relative to holdings of liquid assets they have high levels of property and reinsurance assets, and low levels of equity holdings. They also write more overseas business, and less motor insurance and long‐tailed insurance lines, relative to fire and household insurance.     

Economic Distress, Financial Distress, and Dynamic Liquidation

Many firms emerging from a debt restructuring remain highly leveraged, continue to invest little, perform poorly, and often reenter financial distress. The existing literature interprets these findings as inefficiencies arising from coordination problems among many creditors or an inefficient design of bankruptcy law. In contrast, this paper emphasizes that creditors lack the information that is needed to make quick and correct liquidation decisions. It can explain the long-term nature of financial distress solely as the result of dynamic learning strategies of creditors and suggests that it may be an unavoidable byproduct of an efficient resolution of financial distress.     

Determinants of Financial Distress Costs

This paper provides international evidence on financial distress costs. To achieve this aim, we have developed a model where financial distress costs are determined, on the one hand, by making use of a more accurate indicator of the probability of financial distress and, on the other, by a set of variables that, according to financial theory, explain the magnitude of the costs borne by a firm in the case of financial distress. Our results reveal the relevance of our improved indicator of the probability of financial distress, since it positively affects financial distress costs in all the countries analyzed. Furthermore, since our model controls for the probability of financial distress, we can test the trade-off between the benefits and costs of debt. This allows us to verify that the benefits debt outweigh the costs. Our results also indicate that distress costs are negatively related to liquid assets; hence, their benefits more than offset their opportunity costs.     

Financial Distress and Corporate Performance

This study finds that highly leveraged firms lose substantial market share to their more conservatively financed competitors in industry downturns. Specifically, firms in the top leverage decile in industries that experience output contractions see their sales decline by 26 percent more than do firms in the bottom leverage decile. A similar decline takes place in the market value of equity. These findings are consistent with the view that the indirect costs of financial distress are significant and positive. Consistent with the theory that firms with specialized products are especially vulnerable to financial distress, we find that highly leveraged firms that engage in research and development suffer the most in economically distressed periods. We also find that the adverse consequences of leverage are more pronounced in concentrated industries.     

CDS and the Resolution of Financial Distress

The dramatic growth of Credit Default Swaps (CDS)—contracts that allow creditors to hedge their default exposure or take leveraged credit positions—threatens to complicate the resolution of financial distress in ways that existing reorganization methods and institutions have yet to adapt to. CDS contracts undermine a major premise that underlies current reorganization methods—namely, that the holder of legal rights has, and is motivated by, corresponding economic interests. Because hedging in the CDS markets immunizes creditors from the debtor's financial condition, they effectively separate their legal rights and economic interests. In this article, the authors discuss the challenges this separation poses for the resolution of distress both in and out of bankruptcy, and consider ways in which “on‐ground” realities may be reconciled with the legal structure that underlies the resolution of distress. At a minimum, disclosure of CDS positions in times of financial distress—along the lines of the disclosures presently required of equity investors under the Williams Act—are an essential first step toward a solution.     

Financial fragility in the Great Moderation

A nascent literature explores the measurement of financial fragility. This paper considers evidence for rising financial fragility during the 1984–2007 Great Moderation in the U.S. The literature suggests that macroeconomic stability combined with strong growth of credit to asset markets, in asset prices and in credit relative to output are all indicators of rising financial fragility. We show each of these trends in the Great Moderation. We derive the testable implication that in the Great Moderation credit growth is driven more by past credit growth and less by output growth (Allen and Gale, 2000), relative to pre-Great Moderation years. Results from a VAR model estimated on quarterly data for 1955–2007 are consistent with the hypothesis. This invites a reinterpretation of the Great Moderation. Our methodology may help understand when a credit boom turns into a credit bubble, and contributes to the development of methods of measuring financial fragility.     

当代大学生财务困境与理财指引

文章剖析了当代大学生的财务现状和面临的财务困境,提出了大学阶段的理财目标和实施的建议。通过理性地、有计划地消费进行节流,通过创建多元化收入来源体系进行开源,从而保持健康的财务状况,并养成良好的理财习惯,最终提高财商。     

The Risk-Adjusted Cost of Financial Distress

Financial distress is more likely to happen in bad times. The present value of distress costs therefore depends on risk premia. We estimate this value using risk‐adjusted default probabilities derived from corporate bond spreads. For a BBB‐rated firm, our benchmark calculations show that the NPV of distress is 4.5% of predistress value. In contrast, a valuation that ignores risk premia generates an NPV of 1.4%. We show that marginal distress costs can be as large as the marginal tax benefits of debt derived by Graham (2000) . Thus, distress risk premia can help explain why firms appear to use debt conservatively.     

Financial Distress and Bank Lending Relationships

We use a unique data set of bank loans to examine the wealth effects on lead lending banks when their borrowers suffer financial distress. We find a significant negative announcement return for the lead lending bank when a major corporate borrower announces default or bankruptcy. Banks with higher exposure to the distressed firm have larger negative announcement-period returns. The existence of a past lending relationship with the distressed firm results in larger wealth declines for the bank shareholders. Finally, financial distress also has a significant negative effect on borrower's returns.     

本次国际金融危机与大萧条的宏观经济政策比较

本文以世界经济史中两次最重大的金融危机为研究对象,以主要经济体的宏观应对政策为视角,比较研究两次金融危机中财政政策和货币政策及其效应的异同,进一步总结政策经验,旨在为应对金融危机提供政策启示。     

Theory and Evidence on the Resolution of Financial Distress

We analyze a financially distressed owner-managed project. Themain results of the model are: (1) borrower default is an endogenousresponse to the anticipated restructuring–foreclosureoutcome; (2) the lender’s restructuring–foreclosuredecision depends critically on the interaction between projectvalue and industry liquidity; and (3) the lender waits for theindustry to recapitalize before selling assets obtained throughforeclosure. Empirical analysis of a large sample of defaultedcommercial real estate loans supports many of the model predictions,including restructuring–foreclosure outcomes that areconsistent with endogenous borrower default and firesale discountsthat vary depending on industry market conditions at the timeof foreclosure. (JEL G33)     

基于经济附加值的上市公司财务困境预警实证研究

经济附加值(EVA)是从税后净营业利润中扣除包括股权和债务的所有资金成本后的经济利润.将经济附加值指标应用于我国上市公司的财务困境预警实证研究和行业业绩分析,取得了较好的判别预测效果,并在此基础上提出了相应的政策建议,以进一步深化公司价值最大化的理念和提升上市公司的整体业绩.     

Foreign Exchange Exposure Elasticity and Financial Distress

Financially distressed firms have limited ability to manage exchange rate exposure over time which could cause their fundamental value to be sensitive to the cash flow volatility related to currency movements. Accordingly, we hypothesize that the likelihood and costs of financial distress help explain cross‐sectional variations in return sensitivity to currency movements. We find that the level of exchange rate exposure elasticity is related to proxies for the likelihood of financial distress, growth opportunities, and product uniqueness. Further, firms with a greater likelihood and higher costs of financial distress exhibit greater abnormal returns in response to large exchange rate shocks.     

Did sunspot forces cause the Great Depression?

We apply a dynamic general equilibrium model to the period of the U.S. Great Depression. In particular, we examine a modification of the real business cycle model in which the possibility of indeterminacy of equilibria arises. In other words, agents’ self-fulfilling expectations can serve as a primary impulse behind fluctuations. We find that the model, driven only by these measured sunspot shocks, can explain well the entire Depression era. That is, the decline from 1929 to 1932, the subsequent slow recovery, and the recession that occurred in 1937-1938.     

Introducing Recursive Partitioning for Financial Classification: The Case of Financial Distress

The purpose of this study is to present a new classification procedure, Recursive Partitioning Algorithm (RPA), for financial analysis and to compare it with discriminant analysis within the context of firm financial distress. RPA is a computerized, nonparametric technique based on pattern recognition which has attributes of both the classical univariate classification approach and multivariate procedures. RPA is found to outperform discriminant analysis in most original sample and holdout comparisons. We also observe that additional information can be derived by assessing both RPA and discriminant analysis results.     

Bank Debt Restructurings and the Composition of Exchange Offers in Financial Distress

This article examines the relation between bank debt forgiveness and the structure of public debt exchange offers in financial distress. I find that the structure of exchange offers and the likelihood of an offer's success are significantly related to whether the bank participates in the restructuring transaction. Exchange offers made in conjunction with bank concessions are characterized by significantly greater reductions in public debt outstanding and significantly less senior debt offered to bondholders. Overall, the results suggest that the structure of a firm's public and private claims significantly affects the firm's ability to modify its capital structure in financial distress.     

The Political Economy of Distress in East Asian Financial Institutions

The 1997–1999 East Asian crisis is an interesting case for studying the determinants of distress and closure of financial institutions. Of a sample of 283 financial institutions from Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, 120 experienced distress, and by July 1999, 38 were closed. We find that traditional, CAMEL-type financial data for 1996 help predict distress and closure. Connections—with industrial groups or influential families—increased the likelihood of distress, however, suggesting that supervisors had granted selective prior forbearance from prudential regulations. Since closure was more, not less, likely with connections, the closure processes themselves appear transparent. We also find evidence of too big to fail policies.