Keynes' Investments

Abstract . It is well known that in The General Theory, Keynes is very critical of the stock exchange market, an institution, he says, that “cannot be claimed as one of the outstanding triumphs of laissez-faire capitalism.” At the same time much of his income was derived from speculation in commodities, stocks and foreign exchange. Some questions raised by Keynes’ way of making a living are addressed. When did his market activities begin? Did he, as some detractors allege, take advantage of insider information? What principles of behavior did he follow in his buying and selling? What was his attitude toward his way of making a living? And, above all do the views expressed in The General Theory reflect the influence of Keynes’ market experience? It is suggested that there is, in fact, a close relation between Keynes’ financial experiences and some of his distinctive economic theories. His experiences, interpreted in the light of his Apostolic-Moorean beliefs, caused the deeply critical attiiude toward the whole financial system that one finds in The General Theory's chapter 12.     

The Passion of Self-interest: The Development of the Idea and Its Changing Status

Abstract . Contemporaries who evoke the passion of self-interest and cite Adam Smith as its most prominent defender have exhibited little appreciation for the speckled history of this passion. Moreover, they have demonstrated little awareness of how Smith did not view this passion as a virtue. Some of the major reasons are explained for the changes in our attitude toward self interest. A philosophical refutation of the thesis that self-interest is our only motive for acting as we do is offered and the record is set straight on how Smith viewed the State's role in imposing limits on, and giving direction to, self-interest as a testimony to man's failure at self-legislation. Today the contenders for power—the special interests—are pitted against the guardians of public order.     

International Comparisons of Public Sector Performance

Abstract

Measuring and comparing the overall performance of countries' public sectors requires agreement on definitions and objectives of government. I argue that such an agreement is about finding a consensus rather than about finding better definitions. Measuring government requires a number of leaps of faith, where certain definitions, assumptions and statistics are accepted as good enough for measurement and comparison. The political science and economic research community have a different tradition of dealing with such agreements and leaps of faith, and this is reflected in their approaches to measuring and comparing the performance of public sectors. The implications of these traditions are particularly visible in the usefulness of measurement and indicators for policy makers.     

Accounting and the Truth of Earnings Reports: Philosophical Considerations

This paper investigates the philosophical nature of accounting reports of earnings. Standard setters' authoritative pronouncements (conceptual frameworks, GAAP, EITFs, etc.) hold to the realist philosophical view that true earnings reports are ex post representations of some ex ante out-there, preexisting, extra-linguistic real economic increase in the enterprise's wealth. Contra this view, in practice financial accounting executives, in league with investment analysts, routinely engage in earnings management and manipulation in order to satisfy the capital market's insatiable demands for earnings levels which will support and enhance the enterprise's stock market price. The paper considers this state of affairs from Harold Frankfurt's truth, lies and ‘bullshit’ treatise (2005, 2006). It sees earnings reports as ‘short of lies’, and so the accountants can only be faulted for their indifference to the truth and for giving the impression that they are trying to present the truth. A poststructuralist philosophical perspective, however, problematizes this conclusion on the basis that accounting language is not a transparent medium but rather is the material used to manufacture accounting ‘truths’. It sees accounting ‘truths’ as contingent upon linguistic doctrinal accounting discourses currently ceded place of privilege by standard setters and upon the subjective considerations of accountants when they produce reports of earnings. The paper concludes that both Frankfurt's perspective and that of poststructuralist philosophers can provide valuable insights into this ironic state of affairs.     

Clarence E. Ayres and the Legacy of German Idealism

Abstract . Based on the Clarence E. Ayres (1891-1972) papers at the University of Texas, this study traces the continuity among thinkers such as Kant, Hegel, Veblen, Dewey, and Ayres; the latter was a leading institutional economist following Veblen's death. Publicly acknowledging his intellectual debt to Veblen and Dewey, Ayres drew from these men some idealistic assumptions as well as the historicism that is implicit in his technological determinism or instrumental theory of knowledge. Thorstein Veblen and John Dewey owed a great deal to the philosophical tradition of idealism, regardless of the devotion to naturalism in their systems. The origins of Ayres's technological theory of value are found in Veblen and Dewey writings and back of them the legacy of German idealism. The vital link was a mutual acceptance that freedom was expressed in a cultural and historical form, realized in human activity. It was a process.     

Translating Space: the Politics of Ruins,the Remote and Peripheral Places

This essay surveys recent artistic, literary and philosophical treatments of landscape that use metaphors of ruination, remoteness and the periphery. The discussion primarily focuses on Patrick Keiller's recent works, particularly his film Robinson in Ruins, the account of remote spaces in Paul Farley and Michael Symmons Roberts' book Edgelands, and a collection of essays by Stavros Stavrides on peripheral urban spaces, Towards the City of Thresholds. These treatments of landscape offer an attention to the social significance of spaces overlooked within wider cultural representations of place. It is suggested that all three illustrate the argument that mundane spaces can be read and translated into politicized landscapes offering alternative readings of past events, as well as potential directions for future forms of sociality.     

Why Distinguish Between Statistics and Mathematical Statistics–The Case of Swedish Academia

A separation between the academic subjects statistics and mathematical statistics has existed in Sweden almost as long as there have been statistics professors. The same distinction has not been maintained in other countries. Why has it been kept for so long in Sweden, and what consequences may it have had? In May 2015, it was 100 years since Mathematical Statistics was formally established as an academic discipline at a Swedish university where Statistics had existed since the turn of the century. We give an account of the debate in Lund and elsewhere about this division during the first decades after 1900 and present two of its leading personalities. The Lund University astronomer (and mathematical statistician) C. V. L. Charlier was a leading proponent for a position in mathematical statistics at the university. Charlier's adversary in the debate was Pontus Fahlbeck, professor in political science and statistics, who reserved the word statistics for ‘statistics as a social science’. Charlier not only secured the first academic position in Sweden in mathematical statistics for his former PhD student Sven Wicksell but also demonstrated that a mathematical statistician can be influential in matters of state, finance as well as in different natural sciences. Fahlbeck saw mathematical statistics as a set of tools that sometimes could be useful in his brand of statistics. After a summary of the organisational, educational and scientific growth of the statistical sciences in Sweden that has taken place during the last 50 years, we discuss what effects the Charlier–Fahlbeck divergence might have had on this development.     

Keynesian economics in the twenty-first century1

The Keynesian theory as set out by Keynes embodied an Achilles heel which he himself half understood but chose to ignore. It is also ignored by “post-Keynesians” and “New Keynesians”. The trouble is not in the labour market but in the goods market, where The General Theory, at least up to Chapter 19, definitely assumes perfect competition. But on that assumption the possibility of a Keynesian recession requires that employers behave with highly inconsistent expectations. Once, however, the assumption of perfect competition in the goods market is replaced by imperfect competition or oligopoly, the Keynesian theory re-emerges not only as robust, but also totally relevant to the 21st century.     

The Facts About Small Business and the Real Values of Its 'Life World': A Social Philosophical Interpretation of This Sector of the Modem Economy

Abstract . According to a line of European social philosophers from Marx to Habermas, the development of society is characterized by a process of rationalization, accompanied by alienation and objectification of labor and human relations, and more generally a degradation of what Jürgen Habermashas called the person's “life world.” But the facts about small and medium sized business, as disclosed by empirical investigation, offer a different picture, one of small and medium size enterprises (SME) with a number of attributes associated with social organization on a small scale, of e.g., personality and independence. These can provide a counterweight to its disadvantages and limitations and therefore can be seen as values from a social philosophical point of view. Economically the same attributes make SME vulnerable to the market power and competition of big business. The new technology offers threats to SME, but also opportunities.     

HAROLD WILSON'S DEVALUATION: A SALUTARY LESSON

The 1967 sterling devaluation opened the final act of the Keynesian epoch. The assurance ‘that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank’ had not been devalued, rests upon a ‘fixed price’ assumption invoked by John Maynard Keynes for the 1930s. It carried the implication that a currency revaluation is the only price change that is relevant to international competitiveness. That is nonsense. Devaluation succeeds in readjusting international payments only if it reduces the value of the pound in our pocket, purse or bank.     

The Speculative Demand for Money: An Alternative Approach

Abstract . The speculative demand for money has occupied an important role in Keynes’ General Theory. Since then it has received only sporadic attention. The lack of sustained interest among specialists in monetary theory is largely due to the fact that the theory, in its original form, has usually failed to survive the empirical tests. In this paper, an attempt is made to estimate the speculative demand for money using the general framework of the “Efficient Markets Theory.” The study uses the United States seasonally adjusted monthly data for the period 1952-72. The results strongly indicate the existence of the speculative demand for money.     

An Evaluation of Keynes's Projected Possibilities

Abstract . At the onset of the Great Depression, John Maynard Keynes made some startlingly optimistic predictions about the economic possibilities his grandchildren might face a century later. Within the next 100 years, Keynes proclaimed, technological progress would solve the economic problem facing human beings, individuals would devote themselves to noneconomic pursuits instead, and no one would continue to strive for relative goods. Was Keynes right? This article examines each of Keynes's three main prophecies and concludes that, even though over 75 years have transpired since they were made, and even though they were founded in part on the belief held by most classical economists in the value of technological progress and economic growth, not one of Keynes's predictions has been realized.     

Toggling with Taylor: A Different Approach to Reading a Management Text*

ABSTRACT This paper identifies influential, but previously unrecognized, subtexts in the writings of Frederick Winslow Taylor. Working with analytical methods developed from reader‐response theories of literary criticism, we look at the words of the text as we share the standard meaning‐making of the management community, as well as through the words of the text searching out the worldview that emerges from our particular reading of the subtext. We have described our approach to reading as ‘toggling’: that is, switching between reading text ‘rhetorically’ and reading it ‘philosophically’. We conclude that reader identification with textual voices may appear in philosophical as well as rhetorical reading outcomes – that Taylor's text may inveigle readers into accepting a moral worldview wrapped up in a seemingly rational argument – and that ‘toggling’ would empower management theory readers.     

Tercentenary of Ars Conjectandi (1713): Jacob Bernoulli and the Founding of Mathematical Probability

The Tercentenary of the publication of Jacob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi (The Art of Conjecturing) provides an opportunity to look at the origins of mathematical probability from Jacob Bernoulli's point of view. Bernoulli gave a mathematically rigorous proof of what has come to be called the weak law of large numbers, relevant to discovering ratios of unknown factors through sampling. The Art of Conjecturing was a bridge between the mathematics of expectation in games of chance as found in Huygens's On Reckoning in Games of Chance and mathematical probability as found in Abraham De Moivre's The Doctrine of Chances. This paper looks at the conceptual context as well as the mathematics of Bernoulli's book.     

Evaluation of P(Xt>Yt ) when both Xt and Yt are residual lifetimes of two systems

Let the random variables X and Y denote the lifetimes of two systems. In reliability theory to compare between the lifetimes of X and Y there are several approaches. Among the most popular methods of comparing the lifetimes are to compare the survival functions, the failure rates and the mean residual lifetime functions of X and Y. Assume that both systems are operating at time t > 0. Then the residual lifetimes of them are X_t=X?t | X>t and Y_t=Y?t | Y>t, respectively. In this paper, we introduce, by taking into account the age of systems, a time‐dependent criterion to compare the residual lifetimes of them. In other words, we concentrate on function R(t ):=P(X_t>Y_t) which enables one to obtain, at time t, the probability that the residual lifetime X_t is greater than the residual lifetime Y_t. It is mentioned, in Brown and Rutemiller (IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 22 , 1973) that the probability of type R(t) is important for designing as long‐lived a product as possible. Several properties of R(t) and its connection with well‐known reliability measures are investigated. The estimation of R(t) based on samples from X and Y is also discussed.     

Jefferson's Unheavenly City: A Bicentennial Look*

Abstract . The opportunity provided by the American Bicentennial for a re-examination of our political values is also an opportunity for a closer look at the political philosophy of Thomas Jefferson. Although Jefferson has been placed, with John Locke, in a “heavenly city of the eighteenth century philosophers” who sought new defenses on behalf of medieval spiritualism and divine law, the present essay contends that Jefferson's epistemological commitments differed from Locke's, and that Jefferson's political theory was far more “modern” than Locke's with respect to the key notions of rights, property, and consent. Some of Jefferson's political conclusions differed from those of Locke either in degree, such as in the details of representation, or in kind, such as in regard to the ownership of property.     

Recurrence relations for moment and conditional moment generating functions of generalized order statistics

In this paper, we obtain recurrence relations for moment and conditional moment generating functions of generalized order statistics (gos) based on random samples drawn from a population whose distribution is a member of a doubly truncated class of distributions denoted by . Members of the class are characterized in Section (2) based on recurrence relations for moment generating functions (moments) of gos. In Section (3), we shall characterize members of the class based on recurrence relations for conditional moment generating functions (conditional moments) of gos. These results are specialized to the left, right and non-truncated cases. Ordinary order statistics and ordinary record values are also obtained as special cases of the gos. Characterizations of some members of class such as the Weibull, compound Weibull, Pareto, power function (beta is a special case), Gompertz and compound Gompertz distributions are given as illustrative examples.     

Henry George the Classical Model and Technological Change:*The Ignored Alternative to the Single Tax in Progress and Poverty

Abstract . Henry George's vision of land monopolization as the source of growing rentier income was compatible with all elements in the predominant Ricardian-Millian classical distribution model except the rent-reducing effects of technological change and Malthusian population growth as the catalyst underlying income distribution. Since George also rejected Malthusianism on ethical and philosophical grounds, his analysis focused on the autonomous nature of rent income with respect to population and technological change. George analyzed the distributive consequences of both increasing technology with constant population, and constant technology with increasing population. In the latter case, George, in an ultimate rejection of Malthusianism, demonstrated an optimistic increasing returns to scale of population growth. However, although capable, George never considered a logical extension of his analysis, namely, the dynamic case of changing population, technology, and increasing returns. This analysis would have contradicted his predictions of the trend in relative income shares and the uniqueness of the single tax as the solution to social and economic distress.     

A nonparametric approach to assess undergraduate performance

Nonparametric methodologies are proposed to assess college students' performance. Emphasis is given to gender and sector of high school. The application concerns the University of Campinas, a research university in Southeast Brazil. In Brazil college studies are based on a somewhat rigid set of subjects for each major. For this reason a simple GPA comparison may hide true performance. Therefore, we define individual vectors of course grades. These vectors are used in pairwise comparisons of common subject grades for individuals who entered college in the same year. The relative college performances of any two students are compared with their relative performances on the entrance exam score. A procedure based on generalized U-statistics is developed to test if there is selection bias in the entrance exam by some predefined groups, which is equipped with asymptotically normal distribution under both null and alternative hypotheses. Maximum power is attained by employing the union intersection principle, and resampling techniques such as nonparametric bootstrap are employed to generate the empirical distribution of the test statistics and get p-values.     

The Theoretical Background of Henry George's Value Theory*

Abstract . Henry George intended that his last work. The Science of Political Economy, (which his untimely death left unfinished), should recast economics in a new mold. He argued that if economics is the science of the nature of wealth and the laws of its production and distribution and if in present society there is some deep and widespread wrong in its distribution, if not in its producton, it is the office of an honest science to disclose that. He therefore sought a philosophical basis for an investigation into the nature of wealth which led him into an investigation of the idea of value. These investigations were preceded by an attempt to set out a philosophy of science with respect to one of the sciences, economics.