化解第三方风险

普华永道《2010年全球信息安全状况调查》显示,超过60％的中国受访者认为,在全球经济放缓的背景下．自己的企业正在面临着更多来自于第三方的安全风险。当企业的发展越来越依赖于商业伙伴的合作与共享,当信息化已经成为企业提升竞争力的必由之路,CFO该如何有效地管理信息系统并规避相关风险？     

The Leasing Puzzle

Prevailing theories in finance and economics suggest that leases and debt are substitutes; an increase in one should led to a compensating decrease in the other. In particular, there are three views on the magnitude of the substitution coefficient. Standard finance theory treats cash flows from lease obligations as equivalent to debt cash flows, thus describing the tradeoff between debt and leases as one-to-one. Others are willing to use a tradeoff of leases for debt which is less than, but close to, one. The rationale for a dollar of leases using less of debt capacity than a dollar of debt obligation is based upon the differences in the terms and nature of lease and debt contracts. Finally, there are some who argue that since leased assets may be firm-specific, the risk of moral hazard may be great, resulting in a tradeoff of greater than one-to-one; that is, a dollar of a lease obligation uses more of debt capacity than a dollar of a debt obligation. A series of empirical tests are performed in this study on samples of approximately 600 firms, covering the years 1976 through 1981, with none of the three views supported by the results. Instead, the results indicate that leases and debt are complements; greater use of debt is associated with a greater use of leasing. This finding reappears consistently for each year, each definition of leverage ratios, and each approach to analysis. This complementary relationship persists even after refinements are made to the estimation technique.     

解惑之道

面对内部、外部诸多同惑与压力,逃避或抱怨都不是CFO的选择。这是一个讲求职业态度与自律精神的群休,当现实对他们发出挑战,“亮剑”是大多数人的选择。偶尔他们会避开对面的锋芒,那只是为了将局面审视得更清楚,然后,出招应对。     

流动性之谜

5月12日,央行宣布今年第二次下调存款准备金率。6月7日晚间,央行宣布调降居民存贷款基准利率。这是3年半来央行首次降息。在此期间,4月以及5月的经济指标显示宏观经济的总体概况,其趋势是短期向下,中期未必乐观。中国经济下行、信贷持续维持较低的发放水平,本来均是市场预期。但与此同时,市场同样预期央行将有一定的措施,弥补实体经济在流动性方面的紧张状况。因此,从金融改革的角度看问题,业界对于本次降准以及降息(即双降)的时机,有很多精彩     

银行股:融资与再融资的困惑

近期,有关国有商业银行募股上市的传闻不断,市场对此很不以为然.最近,又有不少银行类上市公司提出了再融资计划,二级市场上的投资者对此更是普遍持反对态度.一时间,围绕银行的融资与再融资问题,市场上出现了激烈的争论,而银行类股票的股价也随之大幅下跌,并且成为近期股市大盘破位的主要缘由.为什么被认为是最有钱的银行会如此迫切地要求融资或再融资?二级市场为什么会反对银行股的再融资方案?银行股问题对市场又会产生什么影响?这些问题的确有必要搞清楚.     

Arbitrage Asymmetry and the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle

Buying is easier than shorting for many equity investors. Combining this arbitrage asymmetry with the arbitrage risk represented by idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) explains the negative relation between IVOL and average return. The IVOL‐return relation is negative among overpriced stocks but positive among underpriced stocks, with mispricing determined by combining 11 return anomalies. Consistent with arbitrage asymmetry, the negative relation among overpriced stocks is stronger, especially for stocks less easily shorted, so the overall IVOL‐return relation is negative. Further supporting our explanation, high investor sentiment weakens the positive relation among underpriced stocks and, especially, strengthens the negative relation among overpriced stocks.     

Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle

Many argue that home bias arises because home investors can predict home asset payoffs more accurately than foreigners can. But why does global information access not eliminate this asymmetry? We model investors, endowed with a small home information advantage, who choose what information to learn before they invest. Surprisingly, even when home investors can learn what foreigners know, they choose not to: Investors profit more from knowing information others do not know. Learning amplifies information asymmetry. The model matches patterns of local and industry bias, foreign investments, portfolio outperformance, and asset prices. Finally, we propose new avenues for empirical research.     

Survival Bias and the Equity Premium Puzzle

Previous authors have raised the concern that there could be serious survival bias in the observed U.S. equity premium. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we argue that the survival bias in the U.S. data is unlikely to be significant. To reach this conclusion, we introduce a general framework for modeling survival and derive a mathematical relationship between the ex ante survival probability and the average survival bias. This relationship reveals the fundamental difficulty facing the survival argument: High survival bias requires an ex ante probability of market failure, which seems unrealistically high given the history of world financial markets.     

中国资本市场的边缘化危机

这是一场危机,我们看到了开头却看不到结局。中国资本市场发展正背离全球潮流历史会告诉人们未来。如果我们非要从历史的角度来考察金融结构的演变规律,洞察金融发展的某些蛛丝马迹的话,就会发现随着经济的增长与发展,全球金融市场上的参与者——银行、投资者和资金需求者之间的关系发生了深刻变化,这种相互关系的变化导致了金融结构的变迁——由银行主宰转变为以资本市场为主导的金融结构,社会资本脱媒现象愈来愈盛。20世纪早期,银行的大     

破除基金规模的迷思

2006年5月份,广发基金管理公司再度创造了基金发行的神话,它所发起的广发策略优选基金首发募集金额高达184亿元,银华、上投摩根等基金公司同期发行的基金也取得了不俗的销售成绩.     

公允价值计量理论困境探讨

2006年我国新颁布的《企业会计准则》中最大的亮点就是将“公允价值”作为一种计量属性而提出。本文论述了公允价值的本质及其定义,从可靠性和相关性两方面来探讨公允价值计量的难点,最后提出一些解决方法。     

State Dependence Can Explain the Risk Aversion Puzzle

Risk aversion functions extracted from observed stock and optionprices can be negative, as shown by Aït-Sahalia and Lo(2000), Journal of Econometrics 94: 9–51; and Jackwerth(2000), The Review of Financial Studies 13(2), 433–51.We rationalize this puzzle by a lack of conditioning on latentstate variables. Once properly conditioned, risk aversion functionsand pricing kernels are consistent with economic theory. Todifferentiate between the various theoretical explanations interms of heterogeneity of beliefs or preferences, market sentiment,state-dependent utility, or regimes in fundamentals, we calibrateseveral consumption-based asset pricing models to match theempirical pricing kernel and risk aversion functions at differentdates and over several years.     

The Chinese Stock Dividend Puzzle

In this paper, we examine the announcement effects of dividends with an emphasis on stock dividends in China's capital market. We find that dividend-paying stocks exhibit significantly positive abnormal returns while non-dividend-paying stocks show a negative announcement effect. Further, we document that the cumulative abnormal returns for pure stock dividends and combined dividends are the main drivers of this announcement effect. In contrast, pure cash dividend stocks experience no significant price run-up before announcement. The significant announcement effect of stock dividends is robust to controlling the earnings surprise effect. We offer some discussion of the possible explanations.     

李总的困惑

案件叙述子夜时分,国际广场18层最大一间办公室的灯光依旧明亮。卓凡房地产公司李总燃起一只雪茄,从房间走了出来,整层楼只有他的轻微脚步声,深深吸了口烟,     

Participating Insurance Contracts and the Rothschild-Stiglitz Equilibrium Puzzle

We extend the Rothschild-Stiglitz (RS) insurance market model with adverse selection by allowing insurers to offer either non-participating or participating policies, that is, insurance contracts with policy dividends or supplementary calls for premium. It is shown that an equilibrium always exists in such a setting. Participating policies act as an implicit threat that dissuades deviant insurers who aim to attract low-risk individuals only. The model predicts that the mutual corporate form should be prevalent in insurance markets where second-best Pareto efficiency requires cross-subsidisation between risk types.     

封闭式基金之谜的噪音理论解释

运用中国封闭式基金数据实证分析得出,资产代理人的缺失是现时噪音理论的缺陷,作为初期风险资产供给者的资产代理人,其行为特征会影响风险资产初期的价格函数;把噪音分为行业噪音与营销噪音可以解释封闭式基金上市溢价现象;资产代理人有多种的利益动机启动营销噪音,从而导致风险资产的初期溢价。     

Presidential Address: Friction

The sources of trading friction are studied, and simple, robust empirical measures of friction are provided. Seven distinct measures of trading friction are computed from transactions data for 1,706 NYSE/AMSE stocks and 2,184 Nasdaq stocks. The measures provide insights into the magnitude of trading costs, the importance of informational versus real frictions, and the role of market structure. The degree to which the various measures are associated with each other and with trading characteristics of stocks is examined.     

The Puzzle of Financial Leverage Clienteles

Empirically, it appears that common stock of publicly traded corporations with high-debt ratios tends to be held by investors with relatively low marginal taxes while the stock in companies with little debt is held by investors in high-tax brackets. A number of authors have argued that in an equilibrium similar to the one described by Miller [8], these clienteles should exist. We argue that standard portfolio theory does not imply financial leverage clienteles for publicly traded firms. We explain the empirical relationship between investor tax rates and leverage ratios by the existence of dividend clienteles and a positive relationship between dividend yield and leverage ratios.