Collective Approaches to Risk in Business: An Introduction to Plural Rationality Theory

This article initiates a discussion regarding Plural Rationality Theory, which began to be used as a tool for understanding risk 40 years ago in the field of social anthropology. This theory is now widely applied and can provide a powerful paradigm to understand group behaviors. The theory has only recently been utilized in business and finance, where it provides insights into perceptions of risk and the dynamics of firms and markets. Plural Rationality Theory highlights four competing views of risk with corresponding strategies applied in four distinct risk environments. We explain how these rival perspectives are evident on all levels, from roles within organizations to macro level economics. The theory is introduced and the concepts are applied with business terms and examples such as company strategy, where the theory has a particularly strong impact on risk management patterns. The principles are also shown to have been evident in the run up to—and the reactions after—the 2008 financial crisis. Traditional “risk management” is shown to align with only one of these four views of risk, and the consequences of that singular view are discussed. Additional changes needed to make risk management more comprehensive, widely acceptable, and successful are introduced.     

An Information‐Based Theory of Time‐Varying Liquidity

We propose an information‐based theory to explain time variation in liquidity and link it to a variety of patterns in asset markets. In “normal times,” the market is fully liquid and gains from trade are realized immediately. However, the equilibrium also involves periods during which liquidity “dries up,” which leads to endogenous liquidation costs. Traders correctly anticipate such costs, which reduces their willingness to pay. This foresight leads to a novel feedback effect between prices and market liquidity, which are jointly determined in equilibrium. The model also predicts that contagious sell‐offs can occur after sufficiently bad news.     

高风险形式下企业欺诈与舞弊的防范

随着社会经济与技术的不断发展,企业经营环境的变化,与企业战略制定与修正、法律法规的不完备、会计准则的"空隙"等相关的经营风险日益加大。利用与这些经营风险相关的不确定性与复杂性作掩护的欺诈与舞弊已成为必须面对和急需解决的一个重要问题。根据高风险形式下企业欺诈与舞弊的成因分析,对其的防范应通过合理地设定企业的战略目标、严格地控制战略目标实施过程中的修正程序、提高识别风险因素的能力,建立良好的企业文化,即诚信与道德价值观等来实现。     

PLANET: An Expert System for Audit Risk Assessment and Planning

PLANET is an expert system for audit risk assessment and audit test selection. At present it is undergoing worldwide field testing by Price Waterhouse audit teams. As a case study, PLANET illustrates a complex interplay of audit methodology issues and expert systems development techniques, and reinforces the validity of many of the widely reported lessons learned about successful expert systems development during the 1980s. However, the experience also challenges elements of this received wisdom while exposing special issues arising in the development of expert systems in the field of auditing.     

The Over‐the‐Counter Theory of the Fed Funds Market: A Primer

We present a dynamic over‐the‐counter model of the fed funds market and use it to study the determination of the fed funds rate, the volume of loans traded, and the intraday evolution of the distribution of reserve balances across banks. We also investigate the implications of changes in the market structure, as well as the effects of central bank policy instruments such as open market operations, the discount window lending rate, and the interest rate on bank reserves.     

Government Accounting: An Assessment of Theory, Purposes and Standards

Government accounting and financial reporting aims to protect and manage public money and discharge accountability. These purposes, and the nature of public goods and tax financing, give rise to differences with commercial accounting. This is not yet reflected either in government accounting standards in English–speaking developed nations or in international public sector accounting standards. All of these are heavily influenced by private sector practices, which favour the accrual basis and consolidated reporting. This article argues for a gradual symmetric approach to accruals and a combination of government–wide and fund reporting. The author also proposes some broad accounting principles to promote political and economic accountability.     

The Effects of Fraud Risk and Management Representation on Auditors' Hypothesis Generation

Hypothesis generation is considered to be critical to the effectiveness and efficiency of diagnostic processes in auditing. Using a between-subjects experimental design, this work examines the impact of fraud risk and the availability of a non-misstatement management explanation on auditors' hypothesis generation performance. The context is when managers undertake analytical procedures at the planning stage of the audit. The results indicate that auditors are sensitive to increased fraud risk by generating more fraud hypotheses, while the number of misstatement hypotheses generated is not affected by fraud risk. The availability of a non-misstatement management explanation was found not to interfere with auditors' hypothesis generation performance, but facilitated the generation of proportionately more misstatement and fraud hypotheses from the same transaction cycle as that indicated by the management explanation. Together, these findings provide some insights on the sensitivity of auditors' hypothesis generation to fraud risk and whether this sensitivity could be undermined by the availability of management representations.     

The Gain‐Loss Spread: A New and Intuitive Measure of Risk

The standard deviation, arguably the most widely‐used measure of risk, suffers from at least two limitations. First, the measure has little intuitive appeal (defined as it is by the square root of the average quadratic deviation from the arithmetic mean return). Second, investors tend to associate risk more with bad outcomes than with volatility per se. To overcome these limitations, this article introduces a new measure of risk, the gain‐loss spread (GLS), which takes into account the probability of a loss, the average size of the loss, and the average gain—all variables that investors consider relevant when assessing risk. The author presents evidence that the GLS is both highly correlated with the standard deviation—thus providing basically the same information about risk—and more correlated with mean returns than both the standard deviation and beta, thereby offering a tighter link between risk and return.     

The Cross‐Section of Credit Risk Premia and Equity Returns

We explore the link between a firm's stock returns and credit risk using a simple insight from structural models following Merton ( 1974 ): risk premia on equity and credit instruments are related because all claims on assets must earn the same compensation per unit of risk. Consistent with theory, we find that firms' stock returns increase with credit risk premia estimated from CDS spreads. Credit risk premia contain information not captured by physical or risk‐neutral default probabilities alone. This sheds new light on the “distress puzzle”—the lack of a positive relation between equity returns and default probabilities—reported in previous studies.     

Risk Capital: Theory and Applications

After a brief review of the current theory and practice of risk capital by financial firms, the authors define the concept of risk capital and identify the costs and benefits of using more or less of it. Next, they present their procedure for allocating risk capital to assets and lines of business on the basis of marginal default values, and in a way designed to prevent risk shifting and internal arbitrage. Then, they show how allocations of risk capital are likely to be affected by, and in turn influence, a financial firm's decisions about both the scale and composition of its portfolio of businesses. Finally, the authors present a number of applications and consider their implications for maximizing the value of financial firms. In so doing, the authors also show how their method produces very different allocations of risk capital than those based on two measures that have long been widely used by financial firms: value at risk (VaR) and risk‐adjusted return on capital (RAROC). Moreover, the adjusted present value (APV) rule for evaluating investment opportunities is shown to be workable for nonfinancial as well as financial firms.     

Cream‐Filled Cookies: An Assurance In‐Class Case

This case presents students with a case situation that they can visualize, resulting in some unique learning opportunities. The case is an assurance simulation centered on cookies that can be purchased in the grocery store that have a cream filling, and the same type of cookie but with twice as much cream filling. These cookies are manufactured by various companies including long‐standing brands and generic brands from national supermarkets. Given the popularity of these cookies, and the ease of access to them, they make for a perfect introductory simulation to students during their first assurance class. Mr. Cookie becomes a fictional character in the case to represent the client that the auditors are working for. The case is easy enough for students to work independently, and has been tested in both small and large classes; working equally as well. It does require the instructor to invest in some cookies and measurement tools such as rulers, plastic knives and weigh scales. The group discussion at the end consistently results in students gaining a greater understanding of the scope and limitations of assurance services, setting the foundation for the balance of the introductory assurance course.     

M‐PRESS‐CreditRisk: Microprudential and Macroprudential Capital Requirements for Credit Risk under Systemic Stress

M‐PRESS‐CreditRisk is a novel stress testing approach that can help authorities gauge banks' capital adequacy related to credit risk. For the first time, it combines the assessment of microprudential capital requirements under Pillars 1 and 2 and macroprudential buffers in a unified, coherent framework. Its core element is an advanced credit portfolio model—SystemicCreditRisk—built upon a rich, nonlinear dependence structure for correlated bank portfolios. The model is applied to a sample of 12 systemically important German banking groups and delivers measures for systemic credit risk and the banks' contributions to it in both baseline and stress scenarios.     

Equity Markets, Transactions Costs, and Capital Accumulation: An Illustration

Poorly developed equity markets inhibit the transfer of capitalownership. Moreover, the costs of transacting in equity marketsaffect not just the level of investment, but the kinds of investmentsthat are undertaken. Once equity markets allow the ownershipof capital to be transferred economically, reductions in coststend to favor the use of longer-maturity investments. When thereis a relationship between the maturity of an investment andits productivity, transactions cost reductions are conduciveto observing certain kinds of increases in productive efficiency.This article analyzes savings, investment, and consumption decisionsby using an overlapping generations model with two-period-livedagents. The analysis allows for several technologies for convertingcurrent output into future capital that vary by productivityand maturity, and it makes ownership of capital costly to transfer.A reduction in transactions costs will typically alter the compositionof savings and investment, and have potentially complicatedconsequences for capital accumulation and steady-state output.     

风险管理的理念与标准

养老基金在投资管理过程中面临各种各样的风险范畴。从外部看,包括法律和政治风险、利率变化风险、通货膨胀风险和市场波动风险等;从内部看,包括治理和道德风