How efficient is the market for Australian firms’ earnings information?

We construct a measure of the speed with which forecasts issued by sell-side analysts accurately forecast future annual earnings. Following Marshall, we label this measure earnings information flow timeliness (EIFT). This measure avoids the aggregation problem inherent in price-based measures of information efficiency. We document large variation in EIFT across firm-years, and show that EIFT is positively associated with the extent of analyst following, consistent with increased analyst coverage improving the speed with which earnings-related information is recognised. We also find that EIFT is higher for firm-years classified as ‘bad news’ (i.e., where analysts’ forecasts at the start of the financial period exceed the reported outcome). However, when we separately consider instances where analysts appear to forecast non-GAAP (or ‘street’) earnings rather than GAAP earnings, we find that the greater timeliness of bad news is concentrated among observations where analysts forecast non-GAAP earnings, where unusual items are typically excluded. We conclude that the market for accounting information is more efficient for negative operating outcomes than for negative outcomes reflecting unusual items.     

Transforming social sector auditing – they audited more,but scrutinized less

The legitimacy of audit technologies is inevitably linked to a knowledge base. Even though it has been pointed out that the agreements on how to measure and verify certain operations are only temporal, empirical studies on change in audit are rare. This paper reports a detailed empirical study of change in performance audit within social services in Sweden. The paper complements previous research since this paper is not about making new things auditable but about challenging existing technologies within a field. We observe how the new ‘sharp’ control‐based model – realized through measures of prioritizing, focusing and standardizing – was related to new demands on ‘facts’ about the audit object. The effect was that many things in this new situation became unauditable; they audited more, but actually scrutinized less. The paper also contributes to existing literature on the role of ‘sharp’ control‐based audit in the social sector. With a ‘soft’ and ‘fuzzy’ object, as is often the case in many parts of the public sector, it is difficult to produce hard, convincing evidence that holds true in different settings.     

Back to basics: What do we mean by environmental (and social) accounting and what is it for?—A reaction to Thornton

This paper seeks to explore whether mainstream financial accounting when it appears to genuflect to the ‘environment’ actually has anything substantive do with – or to say about – the natural world. It seems important to remember that conventional financial accounting is a predominantly economic – and not very internally logical – practice which has no substantive conceptual space for environmental or social matters per se. It has no space for what Thielemann calls ‘market alien values’ – values such as environmental concern. The paper re-examines why we might account at all and revisits why accounts which explicitly recognise environmental (and social) issues can be potentially very important indeed. What seems clear is that whilst any account that sought to reflect environmental and social exigencies might choose to use the technologies of accounting – notably debits and credits – there is no essential reason why they must do so. If we wish to account for an environment, we almost certainly would not start with the somewhat bizarre and tortured foundations of conventional financial accounting.     

Is there useful information in the ‘use of proceeds’ disclosures in IPO prospectuses?

This study contributes evidence on the valuation relevance of the ‘use of proceeds’ disclosure in the initial public offering (IPO) prospectus. This article develops a classification of ‘use of proceeds’ disclosures that aims to capture information embedded in the disclosures relating to the purpose (growth, production, financing) and amount committed to specific assets. These measures are then related to IPO underpricing, survival prediction and expected and realised prospects of the IPOs. The results suggest the ‘use of proceeds’ disclosure categories have incremental information over other sources of information for underpricing, for predicting firm survival and in the case of some disclosure categories, for investors’ evaluation of the firms’ prospects and risks in the early years after listing.     

The probability of decrements from a population. A study in discrete random processes

Abstract

The statistician, whether he be biologist, actuary, or worker III the social sciences, often requires to measure the intensity of some decremental force, or forces, acting on an observed body of individuals. The latter may be human beings, animals, or even inanimate objects (e. g. aircraft), and the decrements considered may range from marriage to‘write-off’. N evertheless the assumptions made are, for the most part, analogous and the technique adopted is broadly the same in every case: the decrements are assumed to be random (in the technical sense) and they are related to the body in which they have occurred (the so-called‘exposed to risk’) in order to obtain a relative frequency, or‘rate’, of decrement.     

Measuring the unmeasurable: an application of uncertainty quantification to Treasury bond portfolios

We extract from the yield curve a new measure of fundamental economic uncertainty, based on McDiarmid’s diameter and related methods for optimal uncertainty quantification (OUQ). OUQ seeks analytical bounds on a system’s behaviour, even where aspects of the underlying data-generating process and system response function are not completely known. We use OUQ to stress test a simple fixed-income portfolio, certifying its safety—i.e. that potential losses will be ‘small’ in an appropriate sense. The results give explicit tradeoffs between: scenario count, maximum loss, test horizon, and confidence level. Unfortunately, uncertainty peaks in late 2008, weakening certification assurances just when they are needed most.     

Why do parents who usually vaccinate their children hesitate or refuse? General good vs. individual risk

This study examines vaccination hesitancy or refusal following the 2013 polio outbreak in Israel, based on two theoretical models. The first is Sandman’s theoretical model, which holds that risk perception is comprised of hazard plus outrage. The second model is the affect heuristic that explains the risk/benefit confounding. It aims to expose the barriers that inhibited parental compliance with OPV vaccination for their children. The study employed mixed methods – a questionnaire survey (n = 197) and content analysis of parents’ discussions in blogs, Internet sites, and Facebook pages (n = 2499). The findings indicate that some parents who normally give their children routine vaccinations decided not to give them OPV due to lack of faith in the health system, concerns about vaccine safety and reasons specific to the polio outbreak in Israel. Some vaccinated due to a misunderstanding, namely, they believed that OPV was supposed to protect their children, when it was actually for overall societal well-being. This study highlights the difficulty of framing the subject of vaccinations as a preventive measure, especially when the prevention is for society at large and not to protect the children themselves. The findings of this study are important because they provide a glimpse into a situation that can recur in different places in the world where a disease considered to have been ‘eradicated’ returns, and the public is required to take measures which protect the public but which might put individuals at risk. The conclusions from the analysis of the findings of this study are that the public’s risk perception is based on a context-dependent analysis, which the communicating body must understand and respect.     

Mediating Interests: The Accountancy Bodies' Responses to the McFarlane Report

There is now a considerable literature on the significance for accountants of their being accepted as a profession. The claim that they have regard to ‘the public interest’ in their activities is a central feature of the accountancy bodies’ claims to being accepted as a ‘profession’. This, they argue, distinguishes them from trade associations and trade unions. The claim is significant for both their economic and symbolic value. This paper examines the accountancy bodies’ claims by examining their responses to the 1992 publication of a discussion document The Future of Auditing by the Auditing Practices Board. Responses by four major professional bodies are analysed in detail. It is concluded that most of them do not attempt to redeem the claim to have regard to the public interest. Instead, they are mainly concerned to promote their members' private interests, frequently by advocating policy measures that will advance their own members' interests at the expense of those of other accountancy bodies. The significance of the contradiction between the transparency of this advocacy and the considerable effort expended in claiming to act in the public interest is discussed.     

Difference of opinion among investors versus analysts

We construct an investor-based measure of differences of opinion (DO) to investigate the different implications of DO between retail investors (DOR), institutional investors (DOI), and analysts (DOA) on asset pricing. Using Chinese stock data, we find that three DO measures (DOR, DOI, and DOI) are negatively related to future returns; DOI’s ability to predict returns can be partly explained by DOR and DOA, whereas DOR contains incremental information not available from DOI and DOA. DOR is more strongly associated with the severe overvaluation caused by retail investors’ optimism than DOI or DOA, emphasising the specific role of retail investors in China’s market. We further show that DOI and DOA are the results of the differences in their information sets, whereas DOR are the results of different interpretations of public information.     

Analysis of the complexity of writing used in accounting textbooks over the past 100 years

The Accounting Education Change Commission (AECC) and the large international accounting firms have all emphasized that accountants must be able to work with unstructured problems to be successful in today's business environment. Measures of this ability are essential if accounting educators are to assist students in improving their abilities to work with unstructured problems. However, there appears to be no measure that has been widely accepted as being the ‘best’ measure. This study considers whether two linguistic performance measures might be usable by accounting educators for this purpose. We use data obtained from a student assessment centre to consider two measures of linguistic performance, idea density and grammatical complexity. We incorporate five criteria in deciding whether these measures could be usable: (1) whether the measures are related to students' performance when solving unstructured problems; (2) whether the measures distinguish between the ability to work with unstructured compared to structured problems; (3) ease of obtaining necessary information from students; (4) ease of scoring, and (5) robustness of the findings after considering other variables that may have an effect. Our results indicate that subjects' linguistic performance as measured by idea density meets these five criteria. However, grammatical complexity is not related to performance for either type of problem. These results were found even after controlling for the effects of other variables such as grade point average (GPA), experience, and personality variables. Because the measures can be obtained from virtually any written work produced by students, the information to be scored is relatively easy to obtain. Scoring is also relatively straightforward.     

Is financial reporting shaped by equity markets or by debt markets? An international study of timeliness and conservatism

We hypothesize debt markets—not equity markets—are the primary influence on “association” metrics studied since Ball and Brown (1968 J Account Res 6:159–178). Debt markets demand high scores on timeliness, conservatism and Lev’s (1989 J Account Res 27(supplement):153–192) R ², because debt covenants utilize reported numbers. Equity markets do not rate financial reporting consistently with these metrics, because (among other things) they control for the total information incorporated in prices. Single-country studies shed little light on debt versus equity influences, in part because within-country firms operate under a homogeneous reporting regime. International data are consistent with our hypothesis. This is a fundamental issue in accounting.     

A new closed-form formula for pricing European options under a skew Brownian motion

In this paper, we present a new pricing formula based on a modified Black–Scholes (B-S) model with the standard Brownian motion being replaced by a particular process constructed with a special type of skew Brownian motions. Although Corns and Satchell [2007. “Skew Brownian Motion and Pricing European Options.” The European Journal of Finance 13 (6): 523–544] have worked on this model, the results they obtained are incorrect. In this paper, not only do we identify precisely where the errors in Although Corns and Satchell [2007. “Skew Brownian Motion and Pricing European Options”. The European Journal of Finance 13 (6): 523–544] are, we also present a new closed-form pricing formula based on a newly proposed equivalent martingale measure, called ‘endogenous risk neutral measure’, by which only endogenous risks should and can be fully hedged. The newly derived option pricing formula takes the B-S formula as a special case and it does not induce any significant additional burden in terms of numerically computing option values, compared with the effort involved in computing the B-S formula.     

Evaluation of psychosocial and organizational factors in offshore safety: a comparative study

This study compares UK and Norwegian offshore workers' evaluations of social and organizational factors that can have an impact upon safety on offshore installations. A total of 1138 Norwegian (87% response rate) and 622 UK workers (40% response rate) responded to a self-completion questionnaire, which was distributed to 18 installations in February/March 1994. The questionnaire contained six scales that were suitable and relevant for the purposes of comparison. These scales measured ‘risk perception’, ‘satisfaction with safety measures’, ‘perceptions of the job situation’, ‘attitudes to safety’, ‘perceptions of others' commitment to safety’ and ‘perceptions of social support’. The data show clear differences in how UK and Norwegian workers evaluate various social and organizational factors that can have an impact upon safety, however, eta² analysis indicated that for most of the scales ‘installation’ explained a greater percentage of the variance than sector. The exceptions to this were scales measuring ‘safety attitudes’ where both sector and installation contributed equally to the effects. Although the results from the ‘safety attitudes’ scales should be interpreted with caution (due to low internal reliability), it is possible that they are tapping into more deeply held beliefs about the nature of safety, e.g. ‘fatalism’ and the ‘causes of accidents’. In contrast, the other scales are measuring factors directly related to the working environment such as perceptions of risk and satisfaction with safety measures on the installation. These may reflect the prevailing ‘safety climate’ or ‘atmosphere’ on the installations surveyed, whereas constructs such as ‘fatalism’, etc. may be reflections of underlying ‘cultural’ values. Recognizing the existence of different ‘safety cultures’ and understanding the processes which lie behind them could have implications for safety management in an industry which is highly international in nature and in which workers' are often required to work in foreign countries for varying periods of time.     

How trading activity scales with company size in the FTSE 100

This paper investigates the scaling dependencies between measures of ‘activity’ and of ‘size’ for companies included in the FTSE 100. The ‘size’ of companies is measured by the total market capitalization. The ‘activity’ is measured with several quantities related to trades (transaction value per trade, transaction value per hour, tick rate), to the order queue (total number of orders, total value), and to the price dynamic (spread, volatility). The outcome is that systematic scaling relations are observed: (1) the value exchanged by hour and value in the order queue have exponents of less than 1, respectively 0.90 and 0.75; (2) the tick rate and the value per transaction scale with the exponents 0.39 and 0.44; (3) the annualized volatility is independent of the size, and the tick-by-tick volatility decreases with the market capitalization with an exponent of ?0.23; (4) the spread increases with the volatility with an exponent of 0.94. A theoretical random walk argument is given that relates the volatility exponents to the exponents in points 1 and 2.     

Taxpayers' Behavioural Responses and Measures of Tax Compliance ‘Gaps’: A Critique and a New Measure

The work of Feldstein (1995 and 1999) has stimulated substantial conceptual and empirical advances in economists' approaches to analysing taxpayers' behavioural responses to changes in tax rates. Meanwhile, a largely independent literature proposing and applying alternative measures of tax compliance has also developed in recent years, which has sought to provide tax agencies with tools to identify the extent of tax non‐compliance as a first step to designing policies to improve compliance. In this context, measures of ‘tax gaps’ – the difference between actual tax collected and the potential tax collection under full compliance with the tax code – have become the primary measures of tax non‐compliance via (legal) avoidance and/or (illegal) evasion. In this paper, we argue that the tax gap as conventionally defined is conceptually flawed because it fails to incorporate behavioural responses by taxpayers. We show that conventional tax gap measures, which ignore the presence of behavioural responses, exaggerate the degree of non‐compliance. This potentially applies both to indirect taxes (such as the ‘VAT gap’) and direct (income) taxes. Further, where these conventional tax gap measures motivate reforms designed to increase the tax compliance rate, they will likely have a tax‐base‐reducing effect and hence generate a smaller increase in realised tax revenues than would be anticipated from the tax gap estimate.