Volatility and covariation of financial assets: A high-frequency analysis

Using high frequency data for the price dynamics of equities we measure the impact that market microstructure noise has on estimates of the: (i) volatility of returns; and (ii) variance–covariance matrix of n assets. We propose a Kalman-filter-based methodology that allows us to deconstruct price series into the true efficient price and the microstructure noise. This approach allows us to employ volatility estimators that achieve very low Root Mean Squared Errors (RMSEs) compared to other estimators that have been proposed to deal with market microstructure noise at high frequencies. Furthermore, this price series decomposition allows us to estimate the variance covariance matrix of n assets in a more efficient way than the methods so far proposed in the literature. We illustrate our results by calculating how microstructure noise affects portfolio decisions and calculations of the equity beta in a CAPM setting.     

A note on the returns from minimum variance investing

Disappointed with the performance of market weighted benchmark portfolios yet skeptical about the merits of active portfolio management, investors in recent years turned to alternative index definitions. Minimum variance investing is one of these popular concepts. I show in this paper that the portfolio construction process behind minimum variance investing implicitly picks up risk-based pricing anomalies. In other words the minimum variance tends to hold low beta and low residual risk stocks. Long/short portfolios based on these characteristics have been associated in the empirical literature with risk adjusted outperformance. This paper shows that 83% of the variation of the minimum variance portfolio excess returns (relative to a capitalization weighted alternative) can be attributed to the FAMA/FRENCH factors as well as to the returns on two characteristic anomaly portfolios. All regression coefficients (factor exposures) are highly significant, stable over the estimation period and correspond remarkably well with our economic intuition. The paper also shows that a direct combination of market weighted benchmark portfolio and risk based characteristic portfolios will provide a statistically significant improvement over the indirect pickup via the minimum variance portfolio.     

Housing prices and the optimal time-on-the-market decision

This paper provides a model for housing prices based on a seller solving the optimal time-on-the market problem. Given the seller’s optimal time-on-the market, analytical expressions are provided for both the expected time-on-the-market and the sales price. These expressions facilitate the computation of comparative statics. Consistent with economic intuition, we show that (i) both the expected time-on-the market and sales price decrease as interest rates increase, (ii) the expected time-on-the market increases and the expected sales price decreases as offer activity declines, and (iii) the expected time-on-the market and expected sales price both increase as the list price increases.     

Testing weak form efficiency on the Toronto Stock Exchange

In order to test for weak form efficiency in the market a vast pool of individual stocks must be analyzed rather than a stock market index. In this paper, a model-based bootstrap is used to generate a series of simulated trials and a modified chart pattern recognition algorithm is applied to all stocks listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The number of patterns detected in the original price series is compared with the number of patterns found in the simulated series. By simulating the price path specific time dependencies present in real data are eliminated, making price changes purely random. Patterns, if consistently identified, carry information which adds value to the investment process, however, this informativeness does not guarantee profitability. Conclusions are drawn on the relative efficiency of some sectors of the economy. Although the null hypothesis of weak form efficiency on the TSX cannot be rejected, some sectors of the Canadian economy appear to be less efficient than others. In addition, pattern frequencies appear to be negatively dependent on the two moments of return distributions, variance and kurtosis.     

Ability of accounting and audit quality variables to predict bank failure during the financial crisis

We examine the ability of selected accounting and audit quality variables measured in a period prior to the financial crisis (i.e., the four quarters of 2006), to predict banks that subsequently failed during the financial crisis. We employ two sets of samples from the US: a troubled banks sample that includes banks that failed in or after 2007 as well as banks classified as being troubled based on profitability, loan quality, and balance sheet position in 2007, and a full sample that includes all banks with available required data. Using the troubled banks sample, we identify six reliable predictors of bank failure: auditor type, auditor industry specialization, Tier 1 capital ratio, proportion of securitized loans, growth in loans, and loan mix. For the larger full sample of banks, we identify the following ten predictors of bank failure: auditor type, Tier 1 capital ratio, proportion of securitized loans, nonperforming loans, loan loss provisions, growth in commercial loans, growth in real estate loans, growth in overall loans, loan mix, and whether the bank is a public bank.     

Exchange rate volatility across financial crises

This paper studies the impact of global financial turmoil on the exchange rate policies in emerging countries. Spillovers from advanced financial markets to currencies in emerging countries are likely to be exacerbated during crisis periods. To test this hypothesis, we assess the exchange rate policies by currencies’ volatility and investigate their relationship to a global financial stress indicator, measured by the volatility on global markets. We introduce the possibility of nonlinearities by running smooth transition regressions over a sample of 21 emerging countries from January 1994 to September 2009. The results confirm that exchange rate volatility does increase more than proportionally with the global financial stress, for most countries in the sample. We also evidence regional contagion effects spreading from one emerging currency to other currencies in the neighboring area.     

Control-ownership wedge and investment sensitivity to stock price

This study examines whether insiders’ incentives for private control benefits affect investment sensitivity to stock price. While Chen et al. (2007) link stock price informativeness to firms’ learning from the stock market, we offer an alternative agency-cost based explanation. Using a total of 2822 firms from 22 countries in East Asia and Western Europe, we document a strong negative association between control-ownership wedge and investment-q sensitivity, suggesting that insiders’ incentives for private control benefit reduce their propensity to listen to the market. Furthermore, the negative impact of wedge on investment-q sensitivity is primarily driven by sub-optimal investments. Overall, we provide evidence that agency problem is an important factor that determines the learning from the stock market in capital allocation.     

A computing bias in estimating the probability of informed trading

This study identifies a factor that leads to a bias in estimating the probability of informed trading (PIN), a widely-used microstructure measure. It is shown that, along with the numerical maximization of the likelihood function for PIN, the floating-point exception (i.e., overflow or underflow) may eliminate feasible solutions to the actual parameters in the optimization problem. Approximately 44% of PIN estimates for recent stock market data may have been subject to a downward bias that is more pronounced for active stocks than for inactive stocks. This study develops a remedy to mitigate the resulting bias.     

The order flow of discount certificates and issuer pricing behavior

We analyze the order flow of discount certificates, its dependence on product age, and the implications for issuer pricing behavior. Based on a unique data set of exchange trades and issuer quotes, we find that for tax reasons investors prefer to buy products that mature in just over 1 year from the date of purchase. Furthermore, they tend to sell products back preferably close to maturity. These patterns in the trade direction allow us to separate the issuer pricing behavior from (i) the life cycle and (ii) the order flow. We find evidence that 7 out of 11 issuers anticipate the order flow and price in an additional margin in phases of positive expected net sales.     

Banking 3.0—Designing financial regulation systems: The case for simple rules

In the past quarter century, financial innovation and deregulation have increasingly pushed the banks into shadow banking, magnifying the risks and leaving the regulators bereft of the tools needed to analyze and manage an increasingly complex and interconnected system. The purpose of the new regulatory process should be to return banks their intermediation function. However, the system has to focus on simplicity, and its purpose has to be to promote effective risk management, transparency and accountability by changing incentives without burdening the banking system with crippling capital and regulatory requirements.     

Crash risk of the euro in the sovereign debt crisis of 2009–2010

The economic-political instability of a country, which is tied to its credit risk, often leads to sharp depreciation and heightened volatility in its currency. This paper shows that not only the creditworthiness of the euro-area countries with weaker fiscal positions but also that of the member countries with more sound fiscal positions are important determinants of the deep out-of-the-money euro put option prices, which embedded information on the euro crash risk during the sovereign debt crisis of 2009–2010. We also find evidence of information flow from the sovereign credit default swap market to the currency option market during the crisis.     

Futures trading and supply contracting in the oil refining industry

This paper examines the relation between commodity futures trading and the real side contracting behavior of firms dealing in the commodity. I argue that futures serve as a flexible form of physical contracting and should be examined in the context of the firm's contracting activities, and not strictly in the context of its financial activities. Data from an oil refining company are used to empirically study this relation. The results are consistent with a contracting view of futures use and appear inconsistent with implications of hedging theories.     

Joint effect of financial fragility and macroeconomic shocks on bank loan losses: Evidence from Europe

A reduced-form model including nonlinearities is estimated from pooled data from nine European countries during 1982–2004 to show the effects of macroeconomic shocks and financial fragility on bank loan losses. The main ingredients of the model are unanticipated-output and interest-rate shocks estimated from published macroeconomic and naïve forecasts. The model fits the data well, capturing the extremely high levels of loan losses witnessed in different financial crises.     

The subprime asset-backed securities market and the equity prices of large complex financial institutions

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the subprime asset-backed collateralized debt obligations (CDO) market and Large Complex Financial Institutions (LCFIs). We attempt to account for the dynamics between the ABX index returns and the banks’ equity returns through conditioning our analysis on the historical correlation between the variables. Three key results emerge from the analysis. First, we find a positive correlation between movements of the ABX index and the equity returns for all the LCFIs. Second, the volatility of ABX index returns tend to be transmitted to the volatilities of the equity returns of the financial institutions. Third, ABX prices changes lead equity returns changes of the European-based LCFIs. For the US LCFIs a two-way linkage emerges.     

Measuring price discovery: The variance ratio, the R, and the weighted price contribution

We analyze the statistical properties of three price discovery measures: The variance ratio, the weighted price contribution (WPC), and the R² of unbiasedness regressions. We find that, if the price process is a driftless martingale, only the WPC is an unbiased estimator for the return variance explained during a time interval. For autocorrelated processes with a drift, only the R² of the unbiasedness regression is consistent, but it is biased for small samples.     

Nonparametric estimation and testing of stochastic discount factor

This paper attempts to estimate stochastic discount factor (SDF) proxies nonparametrically using the conditional Hansen–Jagannathan distance. Nonparametric estimation can not only avoid misspecification when dealing with nonlinearity in the model but also provide more precise information about the local properties of the estimators. Empirical studies show that our method performs better than the alternative parametric polynomial models, and furthermore, we find that the return on aggregate wealth can sufficiently explain the SDF proxies when one deals with nonlinearity appropriately.     

Checking for asymmetric default dependence in a credit card portfolio: A copula approach

Traditional credit risk models adopt the linear correlation as a measure of dependence and assume that credit losses are normally-distributed. However some studies have shown that credit losses are seldom normal and the linear correlation does not give accurate assessment for asymmetric data. Therefore it is possible that many credit models tend to misestimate the probability of joint extreme defaults.This paper employs Copula Theory to model the dependence across default rates in a credit card portfolio of a large UK bank and to estimate the likelihood of joint high default rates. Ten copula families are used as candidates to represent the dependence structure. The empirical analysis shows that, when compared to traditional models, estimations based on asymmetric copulas usually yield results closer to the ratio of simultaneous extreme losses observed in the credit card portfolio.Copulas have been applied to evaluate the dependence among corporate debts but this research is the first paper to give evidence of the outperformance of copula estimations in portfolios of consumer loans. Moreover we test some families of copulas that are not typically considered in credit risk studies and find out that three of them are suitable for representing dependence across credit card defaults.     

CAPM option pricing

This paper extends the option pricing equations of [Black and Scholes, 1973] , [Jarrow and Madan, 1997] and [Husmann and Stephan, 2007] . In particular, we show that the length of the individual planning horizon is a determinant of an option’s value. The derived pricing equations can be presented in terms of the Black and Scholes [1973. Journal of Political Economy 81, 637–654] option values which ensures an easy application in practice.     

Corporate equity ownership, investment, and product market relationships

This paper examines the effect of corporate equity ownership on investment when firms have product market relationships. Firms have incentives to hold long equity positions when their products are complements. These equity positions induce the firms to increase their real investment expenditures. In contrast, firms have incentives to hold short equity positions when their products are substitutes. These short positions commit the firms to a more aggressive product market stance, and also result in increased real investment expenditures. Our model offers an explanation for the empirical relationship between the establishment of corporate equity stakes and increased investment spending documented by Allen and Phillips (2000).     

What UIP tests on extreme samples reveal about the missing variable

In their UIP regressions, Huisman et al. (1998. Extreme support for uncovered interest parity, Journal for International Money and Finance 17, 211–228.) focus on extreme forward premia and find much higher coefficients. We show that, for such results, the expectation signal needs to be thicker-tailed than the missing variable. Transaction costs may produce the right sort of bias. It is (i) bounded (i.e. it has no tails at all), (ii) wide (i.e. it may generate betas below 1/2) and (iii) U-distributed, which makes an “extreme” sample quite effective. We derive theoretical and numerical results in the direction of what Huisman et al. observe. We also tighten Fama's moment conditions.