Employment and labor market dynamics in the Russian Federation until 2030

The paper considers inertial and factor forecasts of the basic parameters of the employment and labor market dynamics in Russia. Estimates of the future state in the area of employment are given for the national and regional levels by types of economic activity. The basic factors acting on the employment and labor market dynamics are also analyzed at the national and regional levels.     

Forecast scenario for the development of the meat market in Russia until 2020

The forecast scenario for the development of the domestic meat market until 2020, on the basis of the author’s approach to the analysis of markets of commodity substitutes, which is related to the study of the behavior of structural changes in the consumption of these commodities, is presented. Reasoned criticism of measures for supporting the Russian meat production complex, which are suggested by the Russian Meat Union, is conducted.     

Losses of agricultural products and productive resources in the Russian federation

The paper is devoted to the problem of losses in the agroindustrial complex at all stages of production and processing of products. The data of balances of food supplies are analyzed, indicating a poor accounting level of losses. It is proved that the actual level of losses of agricultural products and food supplies makes up a significant amount, which affects increase of production value and food prices.     

The population of the Russian Federation: Solvency dynamics and depopulation

The authors use regression models to explain the main reasons for a fall in the birth-rate and growth in mortality in the Russian Federation. They determine funds required to overcome the natural loss of the population. Sources for mobilizing these funds are indicated, as are inflation-free ways of their realization     

Indicators of the self-sufficiency of Bryansk oblast with dairy products: Evaluation tools, analysis, and forecast

Factors characterizing the self-sufficiency of a region with dairy products are considered in the paper, and, based on the offered factors, estimates of the product sufficiency across Bryansk oblast are given. A forecast estimate is provided, including the regional features of Bryansk oblast, milk production, and main types of dairy products.     

Evaluation of the competitiveness of Russian products in world,CIS, EAEC,and non-CIS markets

Based on statistical indicators of external trade, the condition and dynamics of competitiveness of Russia on CIS markets, including EAEC, non-CIS countries, and the world as a whole, are analyzed in the article. An analysis was conducted for products of the mechanical engineering, chemical, fuel, timber, wood-working, pulp-and-paper, light, and food industries.     

Russia’s fuel and energy complex: Development prospects for the period to 2030

The article presents a long-term forecast for the Russian fuel and energy complex (FEC) for the period to 2030. Projections were made for two scenarios of Russia’s socioeconomic development, which were developed at the IEF in 2005–2006. FEC forecasts were built for three macroregions of Russia: the European part, the Urals and West Siberia, and East Siberia and the Far East. Key outcomes of the scenario forecasts correspond to the base case, which provides background concepts of the long-term development of the FEC. The regional aspect is analyzed in depth, which made it possible to build prognostic energy balances for three macroregions that take account of the economics of production, transportation, distribution, and utilization of energy resources.     

“十一五”时期农业和农村经济发展投资增长预测

农业与农村经济关系着经济与社会发展的全局。从“十一五”时期来看,按照科学发展观的要求,统筹城乡社会经济发展,加大农业和农村经济的投入是重大的战略任务。增加农业和农村经济投入的需求因素从全局来看,增加农业和农村经济投入是全面推进农村经济、社会与环境建设,推进新农     

Out-of-Sample Forecasts and Nonlinear Model Selection with an Example of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

It is well known that goodness-of-fit measures lead to overfitting. We compare the small-sample properties of linear and several nonlinear models using a Monte Carlo study. A large number of linear series are generated and conventional methods of fitting nonlinear models are applied to each. The best linear and nonlinear models are compared using in-sample and out-of-sample criteria. Out-of-sample forecasts are shown to be superior for selecting the proper specification. The experiment is repeated using a nonlinear model and the in-sample lit and forecasts of the various models are compared. An example is provided using the term structure of interest rates.     

Assessment of Russian aviation development for long-term prospects with the regard for Arctic developing: reproductive and technological aspects

The article considers the conditions of developing the aviation industry for long-term prospects taking into account factors such as changes in purchasing aviation equipment, progress in developing the Russian aviation market, and works for reconstructing and modernizing transport infrastructure in the Russian Arctic. The author aims to coordinate the Government programs for developing new aviation equipment and equipment for air transport via the program of Arctic Exploration and Development, as it is necessary to integrate various cycle flows with regard to high-tech capital.     

Features and competition in the market for mortgage insurance in the Russian Federation

The provision of mortgage insurance is considered in the article based on market research and of programs for comprehensive mortgage insurance, for mortgage insurance, and for mortgage insurance without involving insurance mechanisms. As follows from the analysis based on the characteristics of the Russian market of mortgage insurance, we can predict its development taking into account factors of intermarket competition.     

Structural and investment policy as an instrument for modernizing the Russian economy

The article considers the current situation of the structural and technological imbalance in the Russian economy, as well as the nonproportional distribution of the factors of production and financial resources. The need for structural reforms in industrial production and income generation has been shown. The author discusses priorities of structural and investment policy, direction of new technological breakthrough in the long-term national strategy of entering international technological space. Special features of development of key economic sectors have been analyzed. In conclusion, quantitative estimates of economic dynamics in the long term up to 2035 have been given, which are predetermined by implementation of planned measures of structural and investment policy that provides potential for GDP growth until 2035 at a rate of no less than 3.5% on average per year.     

Prospects for the production and transportation of oil and gas resources from the western Russian Arctic

The article discusses the growth in the volumes of oil and gas production and transportation in the western regions of the Russian Arctic in the next few decades due to the presence of unique resources located there. The assessment of the possible development of these regions shows great prospects for the oil and gas sector under the conditions of expansion and modernization of their existing transportation systems, as well as favorable market conditions.     

Toward the assessment of the Russian population mortality risk factors and the feasibility of their reduction: Comments on the World Bank Report “Dying Too Young”

A comparative study of external mortality risk factors according to World Bank experts (Dying Too Young Report, 2005) and findings of other projects, as well as mortality reduction programs, is presented. The World Bank experts overrate the significance of smoking and lead pollution as mortality factors and underrate that of alcohol, air pollution, and unfavorable occupational environments. In addition, the impacts of radon, climate warming, and low temperatures, which are very important negative factors for Russia, are overlooked in the Report. Although mortality reduction measures are very topical under the current demographic crisis, certain federal target programs envisage very general measures, and the death rate remains high. Road Safety Improvement, which is the most concrete among these programs, may indeed help reduce road accident-related mortality. The importance of air pollution as a risk factor may grow as a result of changes in the structure of the fuel balance and an increased share of coal combustion.     

Finance and credit in the strategy for the economic development and structured investment policy of the Russian Federation

The article discusses the role and place of finance and credit in the structured investment policy and substantiates possible directions of measures in the sphere of money and finance aimed at accelerating economic growth in Russia.     

哈尔滨特色俄侨文化产业建设发展对策研究

俄侨文化产业作为哈尔滨一种特色文化遗产,有必要进行深入挖掘.应加强俄侨特色文化产业发展意识、 强化特色俄侨文化产业结构和建立特色俄侨文化产业市场机制.改善特色俄侨文化产业发展的市场,实行政府管制与自由市场相结合、 强化市场竞争中法制建设的保障和平衡市场竞争的公平性.提升特色俄侨文化产业自身的竞争力应创建品牌、 充分发挥龙头企业带动作用、 以新理念新科技与软实力支持、 加强市场营销力度和开发利用特色文化资源.     

Structural change in the Russian far east: The implications for trade and factor markets

This study compares actual directions of structural adjustment in the Russian Far East since the collapse of the former Soviet Union with estimated directions of adjustment that would be predicted to follow an opening of the region to the world market. How would moving to world prices affect the competitiveness of individual sectors of the Russian Far East? This author estimates the impact of changing terms of trade by revaluing a 1987 input-output table for the Russian Far East by price relatives between internal Soviet prices and world prices estimated by David Tarr [1992]. These estimates measure apparent competitiveness of each sector at world prices and identify four sectors of the Russian Far East—food processing, forest products, light industry, and the chemical industry—as negative value added sectors at world prices. However, actual short-run directions of adjustment in 1992–94 are only partly consistent with the directions predicted in the model. Measured gains from trade are strong on the import side but not on the export side.     

Net domestic product as a basis for the analysis and forecasting of economic development

Using actual data, it is shown that the current practice of determining the volume of production on the basis of gross domestic product, which includes material costs in the form of consumption of fixed capital, leads to an incorrect evaluation of the volume, dynamics, and structure of production and the use of value added. Net domestic product that does not include material costs, using an estimate of fixed capital and its consumption at their replacement value, is proposed as the main indicator of national accounts in Russia. This will also help to obtain reliable data on national wealth, primarily of the value of its most active part, namely, the reproducible capital stock, which must also be determined by the replacement value. The data obtained from the determination of the gross domestic product can be stored for international comparisons, because currently not all countries have data necessary to calculate net domestic product.     

The nature and extent of the market for soybeans and soybean products

Summary This paper addresses the question of whether soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil produced in the United States and exported were part of a single, world geographic market during the decade of the 1980s. An answer to this question is sought using an approach to defining a geographic market based on the notion of instantaneous causality. The empirical results, based on prices for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil for three spatially diffuse locations, suggest that there was but a single identifiable world market for these commodities over the period of study.The authors are with the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington D.C. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the policies of the U.S. Department of Agriculture or the views of other U.S. Department of Agriculture staff members. Senior authorship is not assigned. The authors would like to thank an anonymous referee for helpful suggestions.