Convergence in income inequality? evidence from panel unit root tests with structural breaks

This paper empirically tests whether there is evidence of convergence in income inequality, as predicted by several versions of the neoclassical growth model, using a large panel of annual data for the 48 contiguous states in the US over the 1916?C2005 period. By implementing the panel LM unit root test developed by Im et?al. (Oxford Bull Econ Stat 67:393?C419, 2005, Panel LM unit-root tests with trend shifts, Mimeo, 2010) that allows for the presence of structural breaks and heterogeneity in the panel, we find overwhelming evidence in support of convergence in income inequality. In addition, the results are robust to alternative inequality indicators used, different notions of stochastic convergence defined, and additional cross-sectional correlation considered.     

Comparing evidence on Wagner's hypothesis from conventional and ‘real’ data

Conventional and internationally comparable data for 34 countries are utilized to assess the relationship between general government expenditure and income. While the conventional data can be deemed as mildly supportive of Wagner's hypothesis, evidence from the ICP data suggests a decline in the share of general government as income per capita rises.     

Explosive bubbles in the US–China exchange rate? Evidence from right-tailed unit root tests

In this article we apply novel right-tailed unit root (sup Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and generalized sup ADF) tests to the China–US exchange rate. The empirical results document that the recent financial crisis in 2008 may be preceded by early warning signs of exuberance. Using the SADF test, evidence of an explosive behavior in the nominal exchange is found from 2005 onwards. This period coincides with both financial reforms in China and early indications of an impending US crisis that both have been reported in the literature. Our findings suggest that such an explosive behavior may be attributable to differences in the relative prices of traded goods. Policy implications are also derived.     

Are state–local government expenditures converging? New evidence based on sequential unit root tests

Large and persistent gaps in subnational public expenditure have important implications regarding growth, equity, and migration. In this context, we revisit the question of expenditure convergence across the American states to provide more nuanced evidence than found by a small number of previous studies. We employ a methodology due to Smeekes (Bootstrap sequential tests to determine the stationary units in a panel, 2011) that sequentially tests for unit roots in pairwise (real per capita) expenditure gaps based on user specified fractions. In a panel of 48 combined state–local government units (1957–2008), we found that expenditures on highways, sanitation, utility, and education were far more convergent than expenditures on health and hospitals, police and fire protection, and public welfare. There was little evidence of “club convergence” based on the proportion of intraregional convergent pairs. Several historically high-grant receiving states showed relatively strong evidence of convergence. Our results bode well for future output convergence and opportunities for Tiebout-type migration across jurisdictions. They also imply a diminished role for public infrastructure and education spending in business location choices over time and a mixed role for federal grants in inducing convergence.     

Foreign investors’ influence on the real estate market capitalization rate – evidence from a small open economy

This article adds to the scarce literature on the influence of international investment flows on local real estate values. We hypothesize that a greater foreign-investor presence in a real estate market results in a lower capitalization rate and examine whether this holds true in the Helsinki CBD office market in Finland. This market provides an interesting case study by being part of a small open economy, in which the presence of foreign investors has substantially varied over time. The Dynamic OLS estimations using data for the period 1990–2015 provide support for the hypothesis. The baseline results show a highly statistically significant negative impact of foreign-investor participation on the capitalization rate, the point estimates indicating that a 10% point growth in the share of foreign buyers of the total transaction volume decreases the cap rate by approximately 30 basis points.     

The impact of government debt on the long-run natural real interest rate – a quantitative evaluation

Persistently low natural real interest rates are a problem for monetary policy and financial stability. I analyse to what extent a permanent increase in government debt that is financed by higher taxes could raise the long-run natural real interest rate. As a measurement tool, I use an incomplete markets model with capital and government bonds. Increasing the public debt/GDP ratio by one percentage point raises the real interest rate by between 0.4 and 1.5 basis points, depending on the degree of inequality generated by the model and the tax instrument used to balance the government’s budget constraint. I also show that the interest rate effect of a change in public debt/GDP predicted by the model is significantly smaller than its empirical counterpart for the US, due to the fact that the model understates the empirical fraction of households that are constrained in their consumption decision.     

Re-testing Prebisch–Singer hypothesis: new evidence using Fourier quantile unit root test

The Prebisch–Singer hypothesis in economics asserts that over time the relative price of primary goods relative to manufactured goods should experience a downward trend. To test the hypothesis, we must first establish the unit root properties of the relative price term and then regress the stationary series on a trend term. We use the quantile unit root test which allows for both smooth unknown numbers and the form of breaks in the trend function through a Fourier function to show that the relative price of 23 out of 24 primary goods is stationary. However, the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis is supported only in half of the primary commodities.     

Does Purchasing Power Parity hold? New evidence from wild-bootstrapped nonlinear unit root tests in the presence of heteroskedasticity

In spite of the extensive research which has already been undertaken, the issue as to whether Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) empirically holds, continues to be strongly debated. Existing studies have been criticized for their reliance on unit root tests which are deemed to suffer from certain weaknesses such as the size distortion bias arising from heteroskedasticity. In this paper, we provide new evidence on PPP based on a new methodology that overcomes this problem. We use the widely accepted KSS (Kapetanios et al., 2003) non-linear unit root tests which we, however, wild bootstrapped. Through Monte Carlo simulation, we demonstrate that the wild-bootstrapped KSS is robust to heteroskedasticity-induced size distortion problem. We apply this method to test PPP across 61 countries over the period 1994 to 2012 — a period characterized by a number of crises such as the Asian Financial Crisis, Russian Crisis, dotcom crisis, Global Financial Crises, among others, and therefore, intense heteroskedasticity. Our results provide strong evidence against PPP. This paper contributes to both the international financial economics and econometrics literatures.     

A revisit to liquidity effects––evidence from a non-linear approach

Although liquidity effects are important to quantitative monetary economics, the empirical support for their existence is controversial in existing literature. Conventional literature applies a linear system to investigate the significance of the liquidity effect. This paper points out the appropriateness of a non-linear framework in examining the existence of the liquidity effect and uncovers its existence for the case of non-borrowed reserves and the federal funds rate.     

Is there a unit root in the inflation rate? New evidence from panel data models with multiple structural breaks

In this article, we examine whether or not the inflation rate for 17 OECD countries can be modelled as a stationary process. We find that (1) conventional univariate unit root tests without any structural breaks generally reveal that the inflation rate contains a unit root; (2) the KPSS univariate test with multiple structural breaks reveals that for 10 out of 17 countries inflation is stationary; and (3) the KPSS panel unit root test reveals strong evidence for stationarity of the inflation rate for panels consisting of countries which were declared nonstationary by univariate tests.     

Do Balkan economies catch up with EU? New evidence from panel unit root analysis

This paper explores empirically the issue of income convergence for the Balkans over the period 1994–2011 and the investigation relies on income differentials from both the averages of the European Union’s-15 (EU-15) and the European Union’s-24 (EU-24) as well as within the Balkan group. The adopted methodology deploys the non stationary panel unit root framework to cope with the problem of limited sample providing more reliable insight and, in particular, the analysis uses the univariate and panel minimum Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests, suggested by Lee and Strazicich (2003, 2004) and Im et al. (2005), that accounts for one and two endogenously determined structural breaks. The overall evidence is in favor of catching up with the EU benchmark cases as well as in favor of convergence within the Balkan area. However, disparities for some countries are confirmed.     

Does real U.K. GDP have a unit root? Evidence from a multi-century perspective

ABSTRACT

We employ linear and nonlinear unit-root tests to examine the stationarity of five multi-century historical U.K. series of real output compiled by the Bank of England. Three series span 1270 to 2016 and two series span 1700 to 2016. These datasets represent the longest span of historical real output data available and, thus, provide the environment for which unit-root tests are most powerful. A key feature of our test is its simultaneous allowance for two types of nonlinearity: time-dependent (structural breaks) nonlinearity and state-dependent (asymmetric adjustment) nonlinearity. The key finding of the test, contrary to what other more popular nonlinear unit-root tests suggest, provides strong evidence that the main structure of the five series is a stationary process characterized by an asymmetric nonlinear adjustment and a permanent break affecting both the intercept and the trend. A major policy implication of this finding is fiscal and/or monetary stabilization policies have only temporary effects on the output levels of the United Kingdom.     

Is real GDP stationary? Evidence from a panel unit root test with cross-sectional dependence and historical data

We use historical data that cover more than one century on real GDP for industrial countries and employ the Pesaran panel unit root test that allows for cross-sectional dependence to test for a unit root on real GDP. At first, we find strong evidence against the unit root null. Our results seem to be robust to the chosen group of countries and, in most cases, the sample period. However, the sequential panel selection method reveals that the rejection of the unit root null is due to the stationarity of real GDP in a few countries only. Real GDP is less stationary mostly in fixed exchange rate regimes like the Gold Standard and the Bretton Woods system.     

Effects of USD–Euro parity on a small open economy: evidence from Turkey

This study assesses the effect of USD–Euro parity on a small open economy where exports are predominantly denominated in Euros and imports are denominated in USD. Empirical evidence from Turkey suggests that a positive change in the USD value of the Euro appreciates the local currency, decreases inflation and increases output.     

Are real exchange rates nonlinear with a unit root? Evidence on PPP for Italy: a note

In this article, we apply the recently developed threshold autoregression model to examine both linearity and stationarity of Italy's real exchange rate vis-à-vis her six trading partner (G6) countries. Our main finding is that Italy's real exchange rate is a nonlinear process that is not characterized by a unit root process for five of six trading partner countries. This provides strong support for purchasing power parity.     

Are shocks to foreign investment in developing countries permanent or temporary? : Evidence from panel unit root tests

We examine the time path of foreign direct and portfolio investment in developing countries to test if shocks have permanent or temporary effects. Our findings indicate that shock effects are temporary. The results are robust to the strictness of balance of payment controls.     

Are real exchanges rate series really persistent?: evidence from three commonwealth of independent states countries

This article sets out to examine the degree of persistence in the real exchange rates of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia, and tests the validity of Purchasing power parity (PPP) using monthly data covering 1995:01–2013:12 period. The sum of autoregressive (AR) coefficients is used in order to examine persistence of the real exchange rate series and grid-bootstrap method is employed for the confidence intervals. The tests performed suggest two results: (1) Covering the full sample and sub-sample periods, excluding Kyrgyzstan in 1995:01–1998:07 and Russia in 2008:09–2013:12 periods, disregarding the structural breaks in the data generating process, there is high persistency in real exchange rates; (2) there is evidence in support of PPP covering the full sample for every country except for Kyrgyzstan in 1995:01–1998:07 and Russia in 2008:09–2013:12 periods.     

Do per capita health care expenditures converge among OECD countries? Evidence from unit root tests with level and trend-shifts

This study examines the stochastic conditional convergence of per capita health care expenditures (PCHCE) among 19 OECD countries over the period 1972–2008. Specifically, newly developed LM and RALS-LM unit root tests with allowance for two endogenously determined structural breaks are employed. The results indicate support for PCHCE convergence among most OECD countries. The results are stronger in more general tests that control for two breaks and nonnormal errors. Panel unit root tests provide additional support for the stochastic convergence of PCHCE.     

Impact of social media on economic growth – evidence from social media

This article attempts to investigate the impact of social media (SM) on economic growth. Using information obtained from memberships to social networks, we find that SM has a negative and significant impact on economic growth. This provides evidence in favour of our hypothesis that SM increases the search costs for information and also increases the substitution effect from labour to leisure thereby producing a negative impact on growth.     

Does taxation have real effects on agricultural output? Theory and empirical evidence from China

China has a long history of taxing agriculture, with special levies on output. Whether farm households are taxed on a lump-sum basis or as a proportion of output is an important issue. This paper develops a theoretical model to understand better the effects of the lump-sum and proportional taxation on agricultural output. It then empirically investigates the predictions using tax and output data on Chinese agriculture. The theoretical model predicts that lump-sum taxation affects only consumption, while proportional taxation simultaneously affects consumption, capital inputs and final output. Although the main tax policy targeted output, our results suggest that taxation had only a modest impact on output since it was effectively applied as lump sum taxation brought about by localized levies and taxes.