Donors’ Mechanisms for Financing International and National Public Goods: Loans or Grants?

This paper investigates whether three classes of donors – multilateral organisations, regional institutions and bilateral donors – tailor their mix of grants and loans to reflect international benefit spillovers and recipient‐specific benefits, derived from aid‐funded activities in developing and transition countries. To account for recipient benefit shares, donors should use a greater share of grants when supported activities yield a larger portion of international public benefits. A greater reliance on loans is appropriate when a large portion of recipient‐specific benefits are associated with the assistance. By reflecting recipient benefit shares in the grant‐loan mix, donors’ assistance also promotes allocative efficiency. Using the Credit Reporting System (CRS) database from OECD for 1980–2000, our analysis establishes that various donor classes apply different grant‐loan mixtures when supporting the environment, health, knowledge and governance sectors of recipient countries. We employ analysis of variance and other statistical comparisons of the means to investigate differences among donor classes. We demonstrate that bilateral donors do the best job in tailoring their grant‐loan mix to accord with the extent of international public good benefits embodied in the aid‐supported activity. Multilateral organisations’ grant‐loan mix is intermediate of the three types of donors, with some evidence of them relying more on grants to finance activities that possess a larger share of international public good spillovers. Regional institutions, however, do not discriminate their grant‐loan mix by either sectors or the associated public good spillovers. This finding suggests that regional development banks need to adjust their grant‐loan mix to better account for international benefit spillovers if these institutions are to warrant the increased funds to underwrite regional public goods that they have been seeking. If, however, their mix is institutionally set, then the stakeholders must give these institutions greater flexibility to tailor their grants and loans to who benefits from the aid‐supported public goods. This is the first paper to empirically ascertain whether the grant‐loan mix is tied to the inherent publicness of the aid‐funded activities.     

Arab‐related Bilateral and Multilateral Sources of Development Finance: Issues,Trends, and the Way Forward

This paper analyses the organisational structure as well as the characteristics of development finance provided by Arab donor countries. This is done with a comparative view in relation to western donors and with the aim to develop recommendations as to how Arab development finance can be strengthened and rendered more effective for the new millennium. In the 1960s and 1970s Arab donors established a variety of national and multilateral agencies. These agencies share many characteristics of their western counterparts, but some also exhibit distinctive features. Both in terms of absolute volume as well as generosity measured by aid as a percentage of GDP, Arab countries have been important donors in the past, even though recent years have seen a significant fall in Arab aid. Reversing this downfall in aid, targeting its aid better towards the poor and very poor recipient countries and raising the grant share and the concessionality of loans for these countries together with a reallocation of aid towards the social sectors of human development would render Arab aid‐giving more effective in terms of poverty alleviation and more in line with western aid. A greater willingness to participate in the ongoing discussions amongst western donors about the proper objectives and design of development finance would help Arab donorsto achieve the recognition they truly deserve. Closer cooperation with western donors would be a logical consequence of taking such a step. However, this would also need to be matched by a greater willingness on the part of western donors to take their Arab counterparts seriously as partners of development finance.     

Why do migrants remit?

This paper examines primary incentives of remitting. Using estimated bilateral data on remittances, this paper demonstrates that a rise in the home (remittance‐receiving) country's gross national income (GNI) per capita leads to fewer remittances and that a rise in the host (remittance‐sending) country's GNI per capita motivates migrants to remit more. Real exchange rates and real interest rates have no effect on remittances. These results indicate that altruism is an important and critical component of motivations behind remittances. However, altruism alone does not appear to be a sufficient explanation of the motivations behind remittances. Other incentives such as loan repayment and investment play a non‐negligible role in this regard as well. The degree of altruism is higher for migrants from developing countries in comparison with migrants from developed countries, and it is higher when we define remittances as “personal transfers” rather than “personal transfers and compensation of employees.” The results of the vector error correction model show if remittances deviate from the equilibrium relationship, they will eventually revert.     

Banking Reforms for the 21st Century: A Perfectly Stable Banking System Based on Financial Innovations*

Although bank loans themselves are somewhat illiquid because of private information, most of their cashflows are not. Recent financial innovations allow commercial loans to be liquefied via credit derivatives and actual and synthetic securitizations. The loan originating bank holds the remaining illiquid equity tranche containing the concentrated credit risk, private information rent and the ‘excess spread’ that incentivize the bank to continue to monitor and service the loans. Empirically, we find that the average size of the equity tranche is about 3% for the representative commercial loan portfolios in our sample. The liquefaction of bank loans makes possible a banking system that restricts the guaranteed accounts to be backed by 100% reserves and the non‐guaranteed deposits to be backed by liquid securitized loan tranches, while retaining the deposit‐lending synergy. Such a system is perfectly safe without deposit insurance and it renders banks bankruptcy‐remote without sacrificing a bank's traditional role as a financial intermediary.     

Payday Loan and Pawnshop Usage: The Impact of Allowing Payday Loan Rollovers

Millions of US households rely on payday loans and pawnshops for short‐term credit. Payday loan interest rates are as high as 25% per 2‐ to 4‐week loans and individuals use a post‐dated check to secure the loan. Pawnshop usage is available for anyone with collateral. This article examines whether individuals using payday loans in states where rollovers are allowed are more likely to also use pawnshops together with payday loans. I find that this is true for individuals who make less than $30,000, but it does not hold for those with higher levels of income. There may be some complementary relationships between payday loan rollovers and pawnshops for these lower‐income individuals. These results are important when considering whether to allow payday loan rollovers.     

Sweetening the Transition in EU Sugar Preferences: The Case of Fiji

The European Union grants preferential market access for sugar to a group of African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries. Sugar exported under these quotas receives between two and three times the world price. These trade preferences are intended as a form of aid, but they tend to stifle productivity growth in the recipient countries. The European Union could better assist ACP countries by providing direct development assistance in place of sugar subsidies, for example by investing the aid transfers into infrastructure or other essential public services. This paper tests this proposition for the case of Fiji using a computable general‐equilibrium model. It is found that significant gains in economic performance can be achieved by employing such alternative strategies for aid. These gains are particularly strong over the medium to long term when the aid funds are diverted to infrastructure development. However, there are issues of equity to consider since, in the case of Fiji, the rural poor would be the losers if trade preferences were to be removed. Moreover, the degree of benefit in alternative strategies such as infrastructure development will be contingent on the economy's flexibility, which in turn depends upon the country's regulatory regime and education performance.     

Loan Officer Turnover and Credit Availability for Small Firms

This paper presents empirical evidence on the role loan officers play in facilitating small firm access to commercial bank loans. If loan officers use soft information (for example, assessments of character, information from customers and suppliers) to make lending decisions that would not otherwise be made on the basis of hard information (for example, tax returns or financial statements), then, frequent turnover in loan officers should be associated with an adverse effect on credit availability. This relationship is confirmed empirically using survey data of U.S. small firms in 1995 and 2001, where loan officer turnover is positively related to the turndown rate on the most recent loan application. Although loan officer turnover could be influenced by the turndown rate (for example, an owner changes banks and gets a new loan officer as a result of a recent turndown), its negative effect on credit availability persists under several different tests.     

OPTIMAL REDEEMING STRATEGY OF STOCK LOANS WITH FINITE MATURITY

A stock loan is a loan, secured by a stock, which gives the borrower the right to redeem the stock at any time before or on the loan maturity. The way of dividends distribution has a significant effect on the pricing of stock loans and the optimal redeeming strategy adopted by the borrower. We present the pricing models of the finite maturity stock loans subject to various ways of dividend distribution. Because closed‐form price formulas are generally not available, we provide a thorough analysis to examine the optimal redeeming strategy. Numerical results are presented as well.     

Savings mobilisation in developing countries

Stagnating development aid and continued reluctance on the part of western commercial banks to grant new loans to problem debtor countries have led many developing countries to pay greater attention to the mobilisation of their own resources. This article outlines a strategy for increasing the extent to which domestic savings are made available for development financing.     

SBA default rates : Selection bias and credit deterioration

This study estimates the effects of changes in the money and capital markets on small business loan failure rates. It develops a lagged model of the relationship between term structure and risk premium variables and the loan failure rates of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Bank credit availability to small firms is shown to be the key factor in relating changes in economic conditions to changes in the SBA loan failure rates. As bank credit availability changes over an economic cycle, there is a movement of the least risky small firms into and out of the population from which the SBA grants and guarantees loans.     

MODELLING BANKS' LENDING BEHAVIOUR IN A CAPITAL‐REGULATED FRAMEWORK

This paper adds to the literature on the money supply theory by assessing the effect of banks' equity on the loan generating process. First, a new ‘credit’ multiplier is examined, the so‐called ‘equity’ multiplier model. This, in a second stage, is incorporated in a new multivariate lending model. The models are assessed by using panel data cointegration techniques for the G7 countries. According to our results, a feedback relationship exists between banks' loans and equity. Moreover, the factors determining loans are: the aggregate demand, the loan–customer relation, the banks' equity and banks' portfolio adjustments and/or the monetary stance.     

The use of small instant loans among young adults – a gateway to a consumer insolvency?

The aim of this paper is to study 18‐ to 29‐year‐old Finnish consumers' use of instant small loans (i.e. SMS loan) and other consumer credit services that have increased notably in the past few years. We examine what kind of expenditures instant credit is used for and focus also on young consumers' financial situation and their perceptions of themselves as money handlers. The research method is quantitative, and data are derived from an open online survey (n = 1610). Our results reveal that consumer credit is used by young people in all income brackets and employment positions. However, there is a clear connection between certain life‐course stages (young, single parent), financial positions (low income), employment situations (marginal) and the propensity to take instant loans and consumer credit. The young people who take an instant loan once are likely to do it again. Typical purposes of use included buying alcohol, cigarettes and partying. For some consumers, the use of small loans is part of controlled and economical use of money. However, particularly in the low‐income brackets, it is also common to buy food and to repay credit or interest. Young people, who use instant loans recognize flaws in their money management and see themselves as ‘wasteful’ consumers more often than those who do not use instant loans. On the basis of this empirical study, it is unquestioned that young people's consumer education needs to be strengthened. In Finland, this need has already been recognized in both consumer policy and teacher education.     

Effects of aid for trade on extensive and intensive margins of greenfield FDI

Using a panel dataset of 105 developing countries for the period 2003–15, this paper assesses the effects of Aid for Trade (AfT) on greenfield FDI flows to the aid‐recipient countries. Particularly, this paper classifies the total dollar value of greenfield FDI flows to each recipient country in terms of four different layers: the extensive and intensive margins of projects as well as the extensive and intensive margins of source countries. Applying the system GMM estimator, this paper finds that AfT not only increases the dollar value of FDI flows to the recipient countries but also helps diversify the greenfield projects and source countries. In addition, this paper finds that AfT has a greater effect for greenfield FDI from donor (developed) countries than from non‐donor (developing) countries. Among the three components of AfT, aid for trade‐related infrastructure and aid for trade policy regulations are found to have positive links with greenfield FDI, irrespective of source‐country groups, yet their effects are larger for developed source countries. In contrast, aid for building productive capacity hinders greenfield FDI flows from non‐donor countries, while it promotes greenfield FDI from donor countries. We offer some explanations for this finding.     

Syndicated loans in emerging markets

There has been a considerable expansion of the volume of syndicated loans in emerging markets in the recent years. We provide the first analysis of the determinants of the decision of banks to syndicate a loan on a sample of loan facilities from 50 emerging countries. We show the significant role of loan characteristics and of financial development, banking regulation, and legal institutions, in the decision to syndicate a loan. We support the efforts of authorities to increase banking competition and efficiency, and to implement binding banking regulation on capital requirement to promote the expansion of syndicated loans.     

Problem‐Solving Orientations,Financial Self‐Efficacy,and Student‐Loan Repayment Stress

Using data acquired from a four‐time longitudinal survey, we tested a model linking two measures of self‐agency, i.e., problem‐solving orientations and financial self‐efficacy, to student‐loan repayment stress. Of those participants who responded at Wave 4 (N = 855) of a longitudinal study, 396 who had acquired student loans were included in our structural equation model's Mplus analysis. After we controlled for gender, college financial education, ethnicity, and participant annual income, we found that both financial self‐efficacy and negative problem‐solving orientation were related to perceived difficulty. More specifically, those participants with a greater financial self‐efficacy at Wave 4 perceived less difficulty in paying off their loans, while those with a more negative problem‐solving orientation perceived more difficulty in paying off their loans. We also found perceived difficulty to be directly related to the actual difficulty of repaying a loan, and this perceived difficulty was, in turn, associated with loan‐specific stress. We provide implications for financial education.     

Lending technologies,lending specialization,and minority access to small-business loans

We investigate minority access to small-business loans using a probit model of loan application denial that recognizes two loan types (line-of-credit loans and non-line-of-credit loans) made by two lender types (commercial banks and nonbank financial institutions). We estimate our model on data from the 1998 Survey of Small Business Finances. We find evidence consistent with minority equal access to bank credit lines and nonbank non-line-of-credit loans in highly competitive loan markets; in less competitive markets we find evidence consistent with unequal access to these loans. We also find evidence consistent with unequal minority access to bank non-line-of-credit loans, regardless of loan market competitiveness. Our findings differ from previous research which treats small-business loans as a homogenous product and finds evidence consistent with unequal minority access to small-business loans generally. We argue that the existence of multiple small-business lending technologies and loan specialization by lenders account for our findings and demonstrate the need to treat small-business loans as a heterogeneous product when investigating equal access to small-business credit.     

软信息能否缓解P2P网贷市场中的羊群行为？

文章以“人人贷”网络借贷平台2011年8月15日至2014年8月20日交易数据为样本,通过Python编写网络爬虫程序抓取14936个有效借款订单,采用线性回归模型,按投标记录进行等时间段划分,分析借款人提供的借款陈述等软信息能否缓解P2P网贷市场投资者的羊群行为。实证表明,借款陈述的文本长度与羊群行为存在负相关关系,即借款描述等软信息的增加可适度缓解投资者的羊群行为。对此,建议国内网贷平台应借鉴国外P2P网贷平台的运行经验,提供更多的软信息以引导投资者合理决策。     

Why the WTO is Deadlocked: And What Can Be Done About It

The GATT was hugely successful, yet its successor organisation is to date failing. This paper argues that the expansion in both scope and membership make it radically more difficult for a purely bargain‐based organisation to succeed. Three factors limit the scope for deals that would be recognised as mutually beneficial. Many developing countries are accustomed to transfers rather than bargains; the poorest countries have no basis for bargaining; and even where mutual advantage is possible it requires cross‐sectoral deals which are only feasible with new rules that are unattractive to many WTO members. The paper proposes solutions to these new problems. It proposes an explicit component of ‘transfer’ in the form of non‐reciprocated liberalisation. It proposes a plurilateral solution to the tension between rules and sovereignty. It links these through a ‘grand bargain’ that offers transfers in return for plurilateralism. For the marginalised countries it proposes time‐bound preferences in OECD markets along the lines of AGOA. Finally, to recreate for the larger developing countries similar incentives for liberalisation to those previously achieved for developed countries, it proposes a limited MFN, through which they could restrict their liberalisations to include only other developing countries.     

Effect of climate-related risk on the costs of bank loans: Evidence from syndicated loan markets in emerging economies

Based on a novel dataset that combined syndicated loans originated in the emerging market economies with greenhouse gas emission intensity data of borrowers, this study examines whether and to what extent banks in these emerging markets have factored in climate transition risk in their lending decisions. On loan pricing, our results suggest that banks in these emerging markets have started to price-in climate transition risk for loans to emissions-intensive sector since the Paris Agreement. This could reflect their increased awareness of a climate-transition risk towards such firms. The extent of the transition risk premium is also found to be dependent on the environmental attitude of banks. Specifically, green banks are found to charge a higher loan spread than other banks, when lending to the same brown firm after the Paris Agreement. Apart from pricing a transition risk premium in the loan spread, we find evidence that banks may also consider imposing more stringent non-pricing contractual terms, such as shortening loan tenor and imposing collateral requirement, on brown firms especially when the associated credit risk impacts on these firms are more uncertain.     

Incrementality of SME Loan Guarantees

In many countries, loan guarantee programs are important elements of government policy with respect to small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). If loan guarantee schemes are to be effective, a majority of firms obtaining assistance through such a scheme ought not to be able to obtain financing from existing sources: a property known as incrementality or additionality. This paper describes a new approach to measuring incrementality. This work uses a two-stage process to estimate the incrementality of loans made under the terms of the Canada Small Business Financing (CSBF) program. First, a logistic regression-based model of loan outcomes (essentially a credit-scoring model) is estimated based on a large representative sample of SMEs. The resulting model was consistent with prior expectations and exhibited high levels of goodness-of-fit. The model was then employed to classify a sample of firms that had received loans under the terms of the loan guarantee scheme. Incremental loans ought to be classified as “turndowns” by the model; hence the proportion of loan guarantee recipients that the model classified as turndowns is a direct measure of incrementality. For the CSBF loan guarantee program incrementality was estimated (with 95% confidence) as 74.8±9.0%.