Preference Erosion,Government Revenues and Non‐tariff Trade Barriers

Developing countries benefiting from developed country unilateral trade preferences fear that Doha Round tariff cuts will erode the value of those preferences. That these programmes confer significant benefits, however, is not clear. Studies indicate that the impact of preference erosion would be minimal for most developing countries. But for a small subset of middle‐income and least‐developed countries, concern may be warranted. WTO members, should address affected countries’ concerns, perhaps by tailoring WTO tariff negotiations to lessen adjustment pressures and providing development assistance. Developing countries also are anxious that lower tariffs will reduce government revenues. Dependence on tariff revenue is diminishing and trade liberalisation need not result in lower total tax revenues or even lower customs revenues. Much depends on a country's current tariff and trade regime, its tax structure and its overall economic structure. At some point, a country does need to broaden its tax base and look to other revenue sources to offset declining tariff revenues. Tax reform, therefore, complements trade reform. A third area of developing country concern is non‐tariff barriers (NTBs), which may limit market access even after tariffs are reduced. Despite prior WTO work in this area, NTBs remain a thorny issue for all WTO members.     

Food Safety Issues,Trade and WTO Rules: A Developing Country Perspective

The SPS Agreement and the related WTO dispute settlement mechanism are an important first step in strengthening the global trade architecture, bringing in greater transparency and orderly conditions to world food trade. However, implementation of the new trade rules has turned out to be a more complex task than the traditional market access issues handled by the WTO. Several factors, including inadequate financial and technical resources, have constrained devel‐oping countries from becoming effective participants in the implementation process, and there is widespread suspicion that SPS regulations are being used as hidden protectionist devices by developed countries. However, despite all the problems, some developing countries have been quite successful in penetrating developed country food markets; they have done so by accepting the consumer preferences and standards in quality‐sensitive high‐income markets and implementing domestic supply‐side measures. While making full use of available international assistance initiatives, developing countries should view the task of complying with SPS standards not just as a barrier but also as an opportunity to upgrade quality standards and market sophistication in the food export sector.     

The Role of International and National Agencies in Trade–related Capacity Building

With increased recognition that trade can bring significant benefits to developing countries, and the launch of a new trade round, bilateral and multilateral agencies have begun to mobilise resources for trade–related capacity building (TRCB). The biggest challenge is to ensure that available resources are effectively utilised to deliver tangible benefits to developing countries. This paper argues that the effective delivery of TRCB relates specifically to two areas: in–country to help formulate appropriate trade positions as well as to place trade reform in the context of the country's overall development strategy that will promote a supply response and facilitate pro–poor growth; and secondly within the global rule making process to ensure that implementation of WTO rules and efforts to negotiate and implement future disciplines makes sense from a development perspective, and that TRCB is considered in the context of other competing development needs. The paper elaborates an issues based approach to bring the main providers to TRCB and bilateral donors together to support recipient countries to include a trade agenda in their overall development strategy and to facilitate developing country participation and implementation of WTO agreements that could be formulated within the global trade rules.     

WTO贸易援助制度构建的必要性研究

贸易援助作为WTO的一项倡议,在其实施4年以来暴露出许多不足之处,且该倡议实施期限具有不确定性。贸易援助可以帮助发展中国家克服各种阻碍贸易的限制性约束,充分发挥贸易对于经济增长和降低贫困的重要作用,必须长期开展贸易援助。WTO作为全球性贸易组织,决定贸易援助只有在WTO体系内才能更为有效、全面、根本的展开。为使贸易援助长期实施并解决目前贸易援助倡议中存在的问题,必须在WTO体系内构建贸易援助制度。     

Implementing the Uruguay Round Agreements: Problems for Developing Countries

Unilateral removal of trade restrictions is good economics, but it is often bad domestic politics. GATT negotiations for 50 years provided a mechanism to overcome this political incorrectness. The Uruguay Round carried multilateral negotiations into many ‘new areas’ with more complex economics – areas of regulation that establish the basic business environment in the domestic economy, e.g., technical, sanitary and phytosanitary standards; intellectual property law. Doing these things is costly and you can get it wrong – the economic correctness is not so simple as the economic correctness of removing trade restrictions. Making economic sense in these areas requires cost‐benefit analysis, experimentation, projects tailored to specific problems. Some developing countries would benefit from reforms in the new areas, but the Uruguay Round requirements do not identify the problems that exist in developing countries and they consequently demand establishment of institutions and regulations that will impose higher costs than benefits on the countries that implement them. Implementation issues are development issues, not trade issues. The procedures of the World Bank are suited to taking on such matters, those of the WTO are not.     

打破绿色贸易壁垒积极应对加入世贸挑战

贸易与环境的关系是世界贸易领域的热点问题。WTO倡导贸易自由化,提倡绿色措施,实现可持续发展;但是,它却被“绿色壁垒”人为扭曲。毫不夸张,绿色贸易壁垒已经成为发达国家对付发展中国家贸易政策的部分。通过对“绿色壁垒”的特点与形式的分析,探讨其对我国进出口贸易的影响,并提出相应对策。     

印度对华贸易保护新趋势及原因分析

中国和印度作为两个发展中大国,在国际政治经济舞台上发挥了重要作用。近年来,中印双边贸易增长迅速,中国成为印度的第一大贸易伙伴,但随之而来的却是印度对华贸易保护呈现愈演愈烈之势。在WTO成员国中,印度是金融危机以来对我国发起贸易救济案件最多的国家。分析中印双边贸易概况以及印度对华贸易保护的新趋势,从国际收支理论、保护就业论、产业结构竞争性、国际生命周期理论四个角度深入阐述印度对华贸易保护的诱因并有针对性改进,以改善中印贸易关系。     

In search of WTO trade effects: Preferential trade agreements promote trade strongly, but unevenly

The literature measuring the effects of WTO membership on trade flows has produced remarkably diverse results. Rose (2004) reports a wide range of empirical specifications that produce no WTO effects. Tomz et al. (2007) use Rose's data but include de facto WTO membership, to find positive WTO trade effects. Rose (2005) also produced positive WTO trade effects after accounting for the diverse trade effects produced by individual preferential trade agreements (PTAs). When Subramanian and Wei (2007) emphasize general equilibrium trade effects by controlling for multilateral resistance, they find strong WTO trade effects only for industrialized countries. Subramanian and Wei (2007), however, account neither for unobserved heterogeneity among trading partners, nor for differences in trade effects across PTAs (which could inflate WTO estimates). We unify the Rose, Tomz et al., and Subramanian and Wei specifications in one comprehensive approach that minimizes omitted variable bias to show that all specifications produce one consistent result: WTO effects on trade flows are not statistically significant, while PTAs produce strong but uneven trade effects. Extending the gravity model to address specific avenues in which WTO may have affected trade flows, we find that WTO membership boosts trade prior to PTA formation and increases trade among proximate developing countries (at the expense of distant trade). An augmented gravity model that accounts for WTO terms-of-trade theory shows that countries with greater incentives to bargain for tariff reductions before WTO accession experience positive and significant subsequent WTO trade effects.     

低碳经济趋势下贸易摩擦及WTO机制困境

国际贸易活动以间接的方式影响着能源消耗以及碳排放的程度,各国在促进贸易发展与实现低碳经济的双重战略要求下,势必会引发新的贸易摩擦,WTO机制在双重目标的要求下陷入困境,如何实现世界低碳经济发展模式和减少贸易领域的摩擦是未来WTO和各国政府亟待研究的课题。     

Trade Liberalisation and Economic Performance: Theory and Evidence for Developing Countries

The last five decades have witnessed a profound evolution of economic policy in developing countries, particularly in the case of trade strategies. Both internal, as well as external, factors have prompted the need for more outward‐oriented (or liberalised) trade policy regimes. The creation of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1947 and the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 1995 have been important driving forces for free trade. Since then, the major quantitative barriers to trade, i.e. tariffs and non‐tariff barriers (quotas, licences and technical specifications, among other restrictions), have substantially been reduced or dismantled. Also, the progress towards more liberalised trade regimes, mainly in developing countries, has been manifested in the trade and development literature. Major studies suggest that the performance of more outward‐oriented economies is superior to that of those countries pursuing more inward‐looking trade practices (Greenaway and Nam, 1988; Dollar, 1992; Sachs and Warner, 1995; and Rodríguez and Rodrik, 2000). Recent developments in the international trade literature focus on the potential dynamic effects of trade liberalisation, i.e. simplification of tariff structures and elimination of non‐tariff barriers, in reducing the incentives to rent seeking and in accelerating the flow of technical knowledge from the world market. Moreover, there have been important advances regarding the study of trade liberalisation and its impact on exports, imports and the balance of payments, largely neglected in the literature, often driven by supply‐side considerations.     

Transparency in non‐tariff measures: An international comparison

We construct an index of non‐tariff measures (NTM ) transparency based on notifications to the WTO under the sanitary and phytosanitary and technical barriers to trade agreements, the existence of a trade portal giving ready access to trade‐relevant regulations, the existence of NTM data collected under the MAST classification, and the results of an experiment conducted between 2015 and 2016 where we asked for specific regulations concerning the import of a particular product on behalf of a private company. The resulting country ranking shows that OECD countries are, by and large, the most transparent, but also shows that ASEAN countries score well compared to other developing countries.     

WTO发展中成员地位改革及中国应对建议

发展中成员的特殊与差别待遇是当前WTO改革中的重点议题。美国在WTO提案提议取消多数发展中成员的特殊与差别待遇,美国总统特朗普更是威胁WTO如果不能就发达国家和发展中国家的"过时"二分法做出实质性改革,美方将不再承认任何一个发展中国家的特殊地位。欧盟的《WTO现代化概念文件》则倾向于鼓励发展中成员自愿"毕业"。本文基于WTO内发展中成员并无明确标准、特殊与差别待遇是WTO核心宗旨和基本原则,分析了特殊与差别待遇的历史渊源,当前解决特殊与差别待遇问题的几种思路,指出中国仍是发展中国家,不能放弃发展中成员身份,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

Global Market Integration and National Sovereignty

In this paper, we first trace the evolution of the global trading system from the nineteenth century to the present‐day GATT/WTO arrangements, calling attention to the key roles of reciprocity and non‐discrimination, and we note how the system is now challenged by the new paradigm of global market integration. We then consider the recent plethora of free trade agreements (FTAs), including those between industrial and developing countries, and their uneasy relationship with a multilateral system based on non‐discrimination. Thereafter, we seek to identify the boundaries of the WTO and examine how the potential expansion of these boundaries may result in the over‐extension and weakening of the effectiveness and influence of the WTO.     

Developing Countries as Plaintiffs and Defendants in GATT/WTO Trade Disputes

Developing countries have been increasing their participation in the formal institutions and proceedings of the multilateral trading system. A prominent example is their more frequent involvement as defendants and plaintiffs in GATT/WTO trade disputes. This paper provides an initial economic appraisal of developing country performance in the GATT/WTO dispute settlement system. We measure the economic resolution of these disputes through trade liberalisation gains, and our results suggest that developing country plaintiffs have had more success under WTO disputes than was the case under the GATT. We also document evidence on potential determinants of this success: the capacity for plaintiffs to make credible retaliatory threats and the guilty determinations by GATT/WTO panels. Finally, there is also some evidence that developing countries have recognised the importance of retaliatory threats and have responded by changing their pattern of dispute initiation under the WTO to better take advantage of the instances in which they have sufficient leverage to threaten retaliation and induce compliance with GATT/WTO obligations.     

The WTO promotes trade, strongly but unevenly

This paper furnishes robust evidence that the WTO has had a strong positive impact on trade, amounting to about 120% of additional world trade (or US$ 8 trillion in 2000 alone). The impact has, however, been uneven. This, in many ways, is consistent with theoretical models of the GATT/WTO. The theory suggests that the impact of a country's membership in the GATT/WTO depends on what the country does with its membership, with whom it negotiates, and which products the negotiation covers. Using a properly specified gravity model, we find evidence broadly consistent with these predictions. First, industrial countries that participated more actively than developing countries in reciprocal trade negotiations witnessed a large increase in trade. Second, bilateral trade was greater when both partners undertook liberalization than when only one partner did. Third, sectors that did not witness liberalization did not see an increase in trade.     

对发展中国家的特殊和差别待遇——以WTO有关区域贸易安排的规定为视角

特殊与差别待遇,是世贸组织处理发展中成员方经济发展问题时必须遵循的一项基本原则。但是,世贸组织有关区域贸易协定的现有规范却缺乏对发展中国家的特殊考虑,这不利于发展中国家参与区域经济合作,促进其经济发展。多哈部长宣言授权成员方在区域贸易协定的谈判中考虑发展问题,但是发达成员和发展中成员在此问题上存在争议,尚未达成共识。发展中国家应当积极参与谈判,争取保留授权条款,同时在24条中引入特殊和差别待遇。作为交换条件,发展中国家可以接受就南南型区域贸易协定向世贸组织进行通知并由其进行审查。     

Economic Implications of WTO Negotiations on Non‐agricultural Market Access

The economic implications of current WTO negotiations are likely to be far reaching. The World Bank and UNCTAD estimate annual global gains in agriculture and non‐agricultural products (including fish) of about $70−150 billion each under various scenarios and technical assumptions. Liberalising trade in services could be even more important, especially if agreement were reached to facilitate the temporary movement of labour (Mode 4 under the General Agreement on Trade in Services, GATS). Some qualifications, however, are in order. First, gains are likely to be spread unevenly across countries and across sectors; and, second, short‐term adjustment costs might precede long‐term gains. Much depends on how ambitious liberalisation is and on policies to facilitate adjustment. This paper examines the Doha mandate in non‐agricultural market access (NAMA) and the current state of the WTO negotiations, in particular some key proposals being considered at the December 2005 Ministerial Meeting in Hong Kong. We analyse various scenarios and their implications for trade, welfare, output, employment, revenues and preferences, as well as the distributional effects across countries and sectors. We note possible adjustment problems related to balance of payments and structural adjustment, as well as revenue and preference losses. These suggest the need for ‘aid for trade’ to help developing countries realise gains possible from WTO negotiations.     

Trade openness,tax reform and tax revenue in developing countries

This article investigates empirically whether the effect of tax reform (involving the progressive replacement of trade tax revenue with domestic tax revenue) in developing countries' tax revenue performance (measured by tax revenue‐to‐GDP ratio) depends on the degree of trade openness of these countries. The analysis has used an unbalanced panel data set of 95 developing countries over the period 1981–2015 and the two‐system GMM approach. Results suggest that tax reform is positively and significantly associated with tax revenue performance in developing countries, with the magnitude of this positive effect increasing as countries experience a higher development level. Additionally, and more importantly, countries that further open up their economies to international trade enjoy a higher positive effect of tax reform on tax revenue than countries that experience a lower degree of trade openness. Therefore, these findings should help dissipate the concerns of policymakers in developing countries that greater openness to international trade would further erode their tax revenue, including by lowering their international trade tax revenue. In fact, the implementation of an appropriate tax reform in the context of greater trade openness would generate higher tax revenue, while concurrently allowing countries to reap the well‐known benefits of international trade.     

Do Trade Agreements Increase Food Trade?

In addition to multilateral trade agreements under the World Trade Organization (WTO), the world has seen a remarkable proliferation of regional trade agreements (RTAs) in the last two decades. This study investigates whether these multilateral and regional trade institutions increase food trade and bring the world into a freer flow of food. The gravity model of international trade is used for the empirical analysis. The model is developed in a large panel data setting and attempted to address some potential problems in the estimations including multilateral trade resistances, zero trade values and endogeneity. The results suggest that both the WTO and RTAs have delivered significant positive effects on trade among the participant countries, but not food. Only RTAs are found to have increased food trade among the participant countries. However, although on average the WTO is found to have negative implications on food trade, it facilitates the developing countries more than the developed countries.     

WTO城堡必须经受南方国家挑战——读陈安教授《关于WTO法治、立法、执法、守法与变法之法理思考》有感

陈安教授在其论文中不仅直指GATT/WTO这一体制"堡垒"存在的某些重大结构性的政策问题,同时也科学地剖析和总结了60年来发展中国家为在这个国际贸易治理机制中获得平权地位和应有权益所进行的长期努力。故此文"应当成为所有发展中国家领导人及决策者必读和必学的主题文件","也应当成为发展中国家政府各部门、各所大学、高等研究机构培训有关干部的必修课的一部分"。历史显示:南方国家在GATT/WTO中发起的挑战,虽初见成效,前景光明,但发达国家一直抵制对其进行重大变革。然而事实证明,通过独立自主的南南联合自强,展示榜样的实力,通过建立"具有南南特色的经济秩序"和相互关系,南南"轴心"能够有效地改善和挑战寓于WTO之中的不公现状,能够有效地向北方国家施加压力。陈教授的文章呼吁推动国际经济法和国际经济秩序的除旧布新,这是若干主要发展中国家义不容辞的责任。今年5月初在多哈召开的UNCTAD第十三届大会所呈现的南北对峙态势、双方最终的妥协以及新的"多哈授权"(DohaMandate)的达成,再次印证了陈教授的上述学术主张和法理思考。