我国企业对外直接投资的汇率风险及防范

近年来我国对外投资增长迅速,投资遍及全球170多个国家和地区,对我国经济增长贡献显著。然而,受汇率波动影响,防范汇率风险已成为我国企业,特别是对外直接投资企业不可回避的问题。建立再开票中心、现金管理及内部会计调整、经营和融资的分散化是当前对外直接投资企业管理汇率风险的主要方法,但在具体应用中,不同的方法所针对的情况各不相同,比较有效的方式是将三种方法结合使用。     

噪声交易、人民币汇率波动与汇率制度选择

本文构建了一个包含宏观经济基本面和外汇市场微观结构的理论模型,将进入外汇市场的噪声交易者数量内生化,合理解释了人民币汇率波动的形成机制。理论分析表明,汇率波动既与宏观经济基本面波动正相关,也与进入外汇市场的噪声交易者数量正相关。在给定宏观经济基本面波动的情况下,人民币汇率波动取决于噪声交易者对人民币风险溢价的预期。当噪声交易者对人民币风险溢价的预期较高时,实行有管理的浮动汇率制度能够有效抑制噪声交易者进入外汇市场,有助于降低人民币汇率波动并提升货币政策效果。基于理论分析结论,本文采用1996年1月至2015年6月的月度数据对中国的无抛补利率平价进行实证检验,间接测度了人民币外汇市场中噪声交易者数量的变化。实证结果显示,人民币外汇市场中噪声交易者的数量较多,且随着2012年4月后人民币汇率浮动区间的扩大,噪声交易者的数量明显增加。     

汇率变动与我国对外贸易、国际直接投资之间的互动分析

本文利用1984～2005年的经济数据对人民币汇率和我国的净出口、FDI进行实证检验，根据协整理论建立向量误差修正模型。实证分析结果表明，人民币汇率、净出口和FDI之间存在长期均衡关系。从长期来看，我国的FDI是人民币升值的重要原因之一，但是净出口对人民币升值的影响却不是很明显。并且，实证分析结果还表明外商直接投资和对外贸易相互之间存在着互补而非替代的关系。     

Mexican Peso Futures and Exchange Rate Volatility

Abstract

The reintroduction of Mexican peso futures contracts in April 1995 resulted from a refocus of governmental policy to the use of market-based mechanisms to stabilize the exchange rate. Interest in the Mexican peso future contracts has been high as investors look to manage their exposure from transactions and investments denominated in pesos. This study utilizes a VAR framework to analyze the relationship between the volatility in the Mexican peso spot market and futures contracts trading activity. Shocks to the exchange rate volatility lead to increased hedg-ing-type activity. Furthermore, an increase in futures contracts trading activity (reflecting additional speculation-type activity) results in a short-run increase in volatility. A Granger Causality test also indicates a statistically significant link between spot price volatility and futures trading activity in the Mexican peso exchange market.

RESUMEN

La reintroducción de los contratos futuros del peso mexicano en abril de 1995, resultó del nuevo enfoque de la política gubernamental de usar los mecanismos de mercado para estabilizar la tasa cambiaria. Ha habido mucho interés en los contratos futuros del peso mexicano, ya que los inversores buscan administrar su exposición a las transacciones e inversiones denominadas en pesos. Este estudio utiliza el marco del VAR para analizar la relación existente entre la volatilidad del peso mexicano en el mercado spot y la actividad de negociación de los contratos futuros. Los choques sufridos por la volatilidad de la tasa cambiaria resultan en un aumento de las actividades del tipo hedging. Además, un aumento en la actividad de negociación de los contratos futuros (que refleja otras actividades de naturaleza especulativa) provoca, a corto plazo, un aumento en la volatilidad. Una prueba Granger Causality también indica un vínculo estadísticamente significativo entre la volatilidad del precio spot y la actividad de negociación del mercado futuro en el mercado cambiario del peso mexicano.

RESUMO

A reintrodução dos contratos futuros em peso mexicano, em abril de 1995, foi o resultado de uma revisão da política governamental, em relação ao uso dos mecanismos baseados no mercado para estabilizar a taxa de câmbio. Os juros dos contratos futuros, em peso mexicano, foram altos, devido ao cuidado dos investidores em administrar o risco das transaç[otilde]es e dos investimentos efetuados em pesos. Este estudo utiliza a estrutura VAR, para analisar o relacionamento entre a volatilidade do mercado local, em peso mexicano, e a atividade comercial de contratos futuros. Choques aplicados à volatilidade da taxa de câmbio contribuíram para o aumento das atividades típicas de hedging. Além disso, um crescimento da atividade comercial de contratos futuros (refletindo uma atividade basicamente especulativa) ocasiona um rápido aumento na volatilidade. O teste Granger Causality indica, também, um vínculo estatístico significativo entre a volatilidade do preço local e a atividade comercial de futuros no mercado cambial do peso mexicano.     

汇率风险与企业出口

为了让人民币成为国际上的重要储备货币和投资贸易上的重要结算货币,增加人民币汇率机制的灵活性并控制由此而增加的汇率风险是人民币国际化中回避不了的问题。很多政策制定者和学者担忧:这是否会损害中国的对外贸易利益?本文在Melitz模型的框架下,在理论上分析了汇率风险对企业出口贸易的影响机理;在实证上使用中国2000—2008年的企业出口贸易和工业统计数据①,在不同的稳健情形下检验的结果表明:汇率风险对出口贸易有着相互冲突的作用力,双边汇率风险抑制了企业的出口行为,与除了出口目的地之外的其他目的地之间的多边汇率波动风险促进了企业的出口贸易;出口企业出口的产品种类和出口目的地越多,企业就会在不同的目的地之间优化分配出口资源,吸收双边汇率风险的负面冲击效应,从总体上推动贸易的发展。该论证为央行进一步放松人民币汇率浮动幅度的改革提供了理论上的支持。     

Ireland's Foreign Direct Investment Competitive Advantage and Japanese Outward Foreign Direct Investment

This article addresses Ireland's record in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). FDI has been identified as one of the key factors that has spurred the growth of the Celtic Tiger. An adaptation of Porter's Diamond is offered to explain the determinants of Ireland's competitive advantage in attracting FDI. The overall trends in FDI inflows to Ireland are considered. The study then focuses on Japanese FDI into Europe and Ireland in particular. The pattern of Japanese FDI flows into Ireland is analysed in the context of Ireland's determinants of FDI competitive advantage. Future considerations around Ireland's model of competitive advantage are addressed.     

Foreign Direct Investment,Regulations and Growth

The paper explores the linkage between income growth rates and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. So far the evidence is rather mixed, as no robust relationship between FDI and income growth has been established. We argue that countries need a sound business environment in the form of good government regulations to be able to benefit from FDI. Using a comprehensive data set for regulations, we test this hypothesis and find evidence that excessive regulations restrict growth through FDI only in the most regulated economies. This result is robust to different specifications of the econometric model.     

Foreign Direct Investment,Competition and Industry Performance

This paper investigates the productivity effects of inward and outward foreign direct investment using industry‐ and country‐level data for 17 OECD countries over the period 1973 to 2001. Controlling for national and international knowledge spillovers we argue that the effects of FDI work through direct compositional effects as well as changing competition in the host country. Our results show that there are, on average, productivity benefits from inward FDI, although we can identify a number of countries which, on aggregate, do not appear to benefit in terms of productivity. On the other hand, a country's stock of outward FDI is, on average, negatively related to productivity. However, again there is substantial heterogeneity in the effect across OECD countries.     

外国直接投资与我国对外贸易失衡

我国与美国、欧盟的贸易顺差增大,外汇储备激增,原因错综复杂,其中,在我国改革开放和特殊的工业化进程中,经济全球化和国际分工加速发展,世界产业结构大调整,外国直接投资持续增加才是根本原因。由于外国直接投资对我国贸易顺差存在着两种效应:直接效应和间接影响,即外国直接投资对我国产生明显的贸易创造效应,同时又具有一定的贸易替代效应,间接增加了贸易顺差,从而加剧了我国的贸易失衡。本文运用协整检验,建立误差修正模型,验证了外国直接投资与我国贸易顺差存在长期均衡关系,即正相关关系。只有从生产领域和外商投资的角度入手才能从根本上缓解贸易顺差的扩大。     

环境规制与外商直接投资研究

利用面板数据模型对环境规制与外商直接投资之间的关系进行实证分析。检验结果发现,环境规制对外商直接投资呈现负效应,但这种效应并不显著,人均GDP、市场化指数、基础设施状况、开放程度才是决定外商直接投资的决定因素。     

外商直接投资、环境管制与环境污染

本文就外商直接投资、环境管制和环境污染的关系建立联立方程模型,并运用中国1992-2006年的数据对其进行计量检验,结果表明:外商直接投资通过影响中国的经济规模、结构和技术进步从而对环境产生影响,外商直接投资存量的增加扩大了经济规模,使工业污染排放增加,同时其存量增加也优化了经济结构和提高了技术水平,进而又减少了工业污染排放,外商直接投资对中国环境的总效应是正面的,但影响程度较小。另外,宽松的环境管制是吸引外商直接投资进入的一个重要因素,已经显现出一定"污染避难所"效应,但中国并未成为"污染避难所"。     

Foreign Direct Investment,Economic Performance and Trade Liberalisation

In a number of influential papers published by V. N. Balasubramanyam and collaborators during the decade of the 1990s, compelling arguments and supporting evidence was presented to indicate that export‐promoting trade and investment strategies attract more and more productive inflows of foreign capital than do import‐substituting strategies. This paper revisits these hypotheses in the context of more recent cross‐section data and reports evidence to suggest that the earlier findings are robust.     

外国直接投资、出口倾向与技术溢出效应

本文利用2001、2002、2003年的行业数据,对比研究了在外商投资企业出口倾向较高的行业和出口倾向较低的行业,外商投资企业对我国内资企业的技术溢出效应。结果表明,在外商投资企业出口倾向较高的行业,外商投资企业通过竞争效应、研发效应和模仿效应对我国内资企业产生较明显的技术溢出效应,在外商投资企业出口倾向较低的行业,其技术溢出效应不明显。     

对外投资与规避反倾销

对外投资和规避反倾销是我国当前经济发展中两大热点问题，其实它们之间也存在着一些必然的联系：对外投资是规避反倾销的一个有效途径。但是我国目前的对外投资还存在着许多问题，非但没有减少反倾销对我国出口贸易的负面影响，反而一定程度上加重了国外对我国反倾销的指控。     

Foreign Direct Investment in Hungary

Abstract

When in 1989 the markets in Central and Eastern Europe opened, western firms were quick to move in. Hungary treated foreign firms equal to domestic ones in the privatization process. It attracted most foreign direct investment in the region. Now, other countries are likely to follow the Hungarian path and allow foreign firms to take over domestic firms. This contribution discusses the experience of six Dutch multinational firms in Hungary and discusses whether these can be useful for expansion into other countries in the region. The results indicate that firms easily underestimate the cost of reconstructing acquired enterprises and that building a market position is more expensive than anticipated.     

Foreign Direct Investment in China

Summary

China has attracted the second largest amount of foreign direct investment in the world each year since 1993. Hundreds of thousands of foreign-invested enterprises are in operation in China. However, what drive the success or cause the failure of foreign investments is still not well understood. This paper critically examines one success factor, i.e., the importance of timing of marketing entry into China. It begins with a brief review of the literature on first-mover advantages and the recent empirical research. It then attempts to theorize on why timing of market entry matters in the context of foreign direct investment. Apart from drawing upon the four recent studies in this area, this paper focuses on the auto industry in China and the case of Volkswagen to illustrate the importance of early entry into an overseas market. It calls for foreign investors to seize the first-wave opportunities when the door is opened a certain sector. It pays in the long run both in terms of the market share position and profitability.     

Foreign Direct Investment,Exports and Imports in Mexico

This paper analyses the liberalisation of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico since the late 1980s, and its relationships with exports and imports. Such a process has eased the access of multinational corporations (MNCs) to the country, which has promoted exports. However, it has also resulted in a higher import content and the displacement of local firms, which has limited Mexico's economic development through the balance of payments constraint. The analysis is supported by the existence of linkages – bidirectional Granger causality – between exports, imports and FDI.     

外商直接投资、对外直接投资与国际收支——基于国际收支平衡的我国对外直接投资

在我国,引进外商直接投资和对外直接投资之间存在着严重的不对称性。我国国际收支中投资收益逆差抵消了大量的贸易顺差,在未来贸易顺差和外资流入减少的情况下,这将会导致中国国际收支的恶化。因此,需要大力推进我国的对外直接投资以谋求国际收支平衡。