Hierarchical Modelling of Disparities in Preferences for Redistribution*

We evaluate the magnitude of the disparities in the demand for redistribution across European countries and American states during the 2000s. Modelling the demand for redistribution in a multilevel framework, we identify the determinants that contribute the most in predicting support for redistribution. We observe that individual characteristics and contextual variables are associated with demand for redistribution in the same way in Europe and in the US, whereas others exert different influences on the probability of supporting redistribution. We find important differences from some well‐established evidence obtained from data collected for the 1980s and the 1990s.     

基于消费者偏好的中国电动汽车商业模式选择策略

由于纯电动车在技术上尚存众多局限,因此通过商业模式的创新设计弥补其技术短板成为当前加快纯电动车起步的关键手段之一。通过对国外纯电动车商业模式的研究,分析比较了换电模式和充电模式,通过比照得到不同商业模式的优劣势,根据新能源汽车潜在消费者对商业模式偏好的选择,结合市场现状,提出中国市场推行充电模式和换电模式所应关注的重点与采取的不同政策导向,最终设计出商业模式及应用领域的组合规划。     

考虑消费者偏好的高速公路新能源汽车充电需求分析

随着全球新能源汽车的快速发展,在各城市区域间建设与之相匹配的新能源汽车充电站就变的尤为重要。本文将站在高速公路新能源汽车基础设施建设规划者的角度,针对高速公路新能源汽车的车流情况及充电需求变化,构建考虑消费者偏好的高速公路充电需求预测模型。该模型通过分析消费者偏好对高速公路充电站规划的影响,构建消费者偏好度评价模型,确定影响消费者偏好的主要因素,将主要影响因素引入到充电需求预测建模中,建立考虑了消费者偏好的高速公路新能源汽车充电需求优化模型,以便为后期新能源汽车高速公路充电站站址优化提供参考,避免充电基础设施建设资源的不必要浪费。     

Incorporating Asymmetric Preferences into Fan Charts and Path Forecasts*

Ordinary fan charts consist of symmetric marginal forecast intervals, and do not take into consideration the concrete loss function of the user of the forecast. The note shows how to build fan charts that have exact joint coverage even under asymmetric loss, and maintain at the same time the intuition conveyed by ordinary fan charts. The proposed method is computationally simple, and easily implemented with any loss function. The differences between the information conveyed by fan charts with or without asymmetries, and with or without exact joint coverage, are illustrated with a Bayesian forecast exercise of US GDP growth rates.     

Impact of Changes in Consumer Preferences on Sectoral Labour Reallocation: Evidence from the Italian Economy

This study empirically investigates the impact of changes in consumer preferences on labour reallocation across the Italian economic sectors. For this purpose, coherent sectoral time series of consumer preferences and labour units are constructed from Italian national accounts and consumption expenditure data. In line with recent firm‐level evidence, empirical findings indicate a positive and significant effect of preference changes on labour reallocation. Results are robust to several econometric specifications, different procedures to elicit preference changes, as well as the introduction of time‐varying price coefficient and sector‐specific effects of total consumption expenditure.     

Spatial Allocation of Capital: The Role of Risk Preferences

Abstract

This paper considers a model of spatial allocation of investment capital under uncertainty. We demonstrate that the spatial concentration of economic activity depends upon properties of risk preferences deeper than risk aversion. The degree of so-called relative prudence unambiguously decides whether or not the diversification of income risk favours the geographic dispersion of economic activity. In our framework we relate risk diversification with economic integration. Then there exists risk preferences so that spatial concentration of industry and capital is not affected by the degree of economic integration or segmentation of the regions. We also study the impact of net return regressibility upon spatial allocation.

Affectation spatiale du capital: le rôle des préférences de risques

RÉSUMÉ La présente communication se penche sur un modèle d'application spatiale du capital-investissement en présence d'incertitudes. Nous démontrons que la concentration spatiale de l'activité économique est tributaire de propriétés de préférences de risque plus profondes que l'aversion au risque. Le degré de la soi-disant prudence relative décide sans ambiguïté si la diversification des risques de revenus favorise la dispersion géographique de l'activité économique. Dans le cadre de notre étude, nous examinons la diversification du risque en fonction de l'intégration économique. Il existe également des préférences de risque, qui font en sorte que la concentration spatiale de l'industrie et du capital n'est pas affectée par le degré d'intégration économique de la segmentation des régions.

Asignación espacial de capital: la función de las preferencias de riesgo

EXTRACTO Este trabajo considera un modelo de asignación espacial de capital de inversión en situación incierta. Demostramos que la concentración espacial de actividad económica depende más profundamente de las propiedades de las preferencias de riesgo que de la aversión al riesgo. El grado de la llamada prudencia relativa decide sin ambigüedad si la diversificación del riesgo de ingresos favorece, o no, la dispersión geográfica de la actividad económica. En nuestro marco, relacionamos la diversificación del riesgo con la integración económica. Asimismo, existen preferencias de riesgos para que la concentración espacial de la industria y el capital no sean afectados por el grado de integración o segmentación económica de las regiones.

     

Towards an Integrated Statistical System at Statistics Netherlands*

Changes in circumstances put pressure on Statistics Netherlands (SN) to redesign the way its statistics are produced. Key developments are: the changing needs of data‐users, growing competition, pressure to reduce the survey burden on enterprises, emerging new technologies and methodologies and, first and foremost, the need for more efficiency because of budget cuts. This paper describes how SN, and especially its business statistics, can adapt to these new circumstances. We envisage an optimum situation as one with a single standardised production line for all statistics and a central data repository at its core. This single production line is supported by generic and standardised tools, metadata and workflow management. However, it is clear that such an optimum situation cannot be realised in just a few years. It should be seen as the point on the horizon. Therefore, we also describe the first transformation steps from the product‐based stovepipe‐oriented statistical process of the past to a more integrated process of the future. A similar modernisation process exists in the area of social statistics. In the near future both systems of business and social statistics are expected to connect at pivotal points and eventually converge on one overall business architecture for SN. Discussions about such an overall business architecture for SN have already been started and the first core projects have been set up.     

Consumer Information and Pharmaceutical Prices: Theory and Evidence*

The impact of a reform that increased consumer information on brand name and generic pharmaceutical prices is analysed both theoretically and empirically. The theoretical results show that an increase in information likely reduces the price of brand name pharmaceuticals, while the results regarding generics are less clear. In the empirical part of the article, the introduction of the substitution reform in the Swedish pharmaceuticals market in October 2002 is used as a natural experiment regarding the effects of increased consumer information. The results clearly show that the reform has lowered the price of both brand name and generic pharmaceuticals.     

消费信贷与社会信用体系建设探讨

对于如何建立社会信用制度体系，加速消费信贷的发展，仁者见仁，智者见智，本文就如何构建我国信用体制，并以次促进消费信贷的发展进行理论性研究和探讨。     

Preferences,Comparative Advantage,and Compensating Wage Differentials for Job Routinization*

I attempt to explain why there is not much evidence on compensating wage differentials for job disamenities. I focus on the match between workers’ preferences for routine jobs and the variability in tasks associated with the job. Using data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, I find that mismatched workers earn lower wages and that both male and female workers in routinized jobs earn, on average, 5.5% and 7% less than their counterparts in non‐routinized jobs. However, once preferences and mismatch are accounted for, this difference decreases to 2% for men, and 4% for women, not statistically significant in both cases.     

SESAME: an Integrated Economic and Social Accounting System

This article outlines a statistical information system that serves to monitor and analyze the interactions between economic development and social change. This so-called SESAME links the monetary data in the national accounts to non-monetary social and environmental data, and yields a consistent set of core indicators on the development of national welfare.     

消费信贷与中国经济转型的实证研究

中国已进入经济结构转型的重要时期,消费信贷作为信用资源分配的一种形式,是鼓励提前消费、增加有效需求、促进经济发展和经济结构转型的重要手段。本文利用中国的相关数据,对消费信贷与经济结构转型之间的关系进行实证分析,探讨消费信贷对经济转型的作用,并在此基础上提出发展消费信贷的政策建议。     

消费需求视角下广东省经济增长探讨

消费是生产的目的,也是确保经济增长的关键性因素。随着社会发展、科技进步,人们的生活水平逐渐提高,消费市场的扩大意味着消费需求的提升,在消费需求不断提升的视角下,各省份各城市加快了经济发展步伐,政府也采取一些鼓励措施促进消费、促进经济增长,经济市场呈现出一派欣欣向荣场景。本文我们针对消费需求视角下广东省经济增长进行详细探讨,深入剖析促进经济增长方案,希望能对广东省快速发展带去一定帮助。     

Robust Inference on Average Economic Growth*

We discuss a method to estimate the confidence bounds for average economic growth, which is robust to misspecification of the unit root property of a given time series. We derive asymptotic theory for the consequences of such misspecification. Our empirical method amounts to an implementation of the subsampling procedure advocated in Romano and Wolf (Econometrica, 2001, Vol. 69, p. 1283). Simulation evidence supports the theory and it also indicates the practical relevance of the subsampling method. We use quarterly postwar US industrial production for illustration and we show that non‐robust approaches rather lead to different conclusions on average economic growth than our robust approach.     

Inferring Policy Objectives from Economic Outcomes*

Estimated policy rules are reduced‐form equations that are silent on many important policy questions. However, a structural understanding of monetary policy can be obtained by estimating a policymaker's objective function. The paper derives conditions under which the parameters in a policymaker's policy objective function can be identified and estimated. We apply these conditions to a New Keynesian sticky‐price model of the US economy. The results show that the implicit inflation target and the relative weight placed on interest rate smoothing both declined when Paul Volcker was appointed Federal Reserve chairman.