河道整治工程对沿江(河)工业用地地价影响的量化方法与实证研究

研究目的:通过对河道整治工程对沿江(河)工业用地地价影响的机理分析,建立河道整治工程对工业用地地价影响的量化模型,为国内类似项目的开展提供参考依据。研究方法:在城市地价动态监测系统和基准地价更新成果的基础上,采用有无工程对比效益分析法。研究结果:河道整治工程可为区域经济社会发展做出巨大贡献,长江南京河段二期河道整治工程对南京市沿江工业用地地价的增值效益达2.77亿元/年。研究结论:通过实证分析验证了该模型的可操作性,并对纯公益性基础设施建设的投资回报机制提出相关政策建议。     

长三角一体化发展下城市地价时空格局及影响机制研究

研究目的：基于2008—2019年长三角城市地价数据,实证分析地价增长及空间分异格局、机制。研究方法：计量经济和社会网络分析方法。研究结果：（1）长三角城市地价历经复苏增长、相对企稳、快速增长和平稳增长4个阶段;（2）城市间地价差异整体缩小,并且呈现出一定的空间依赖性;（3）不同层级城市地价受到核心城市地价变化影响而呈现出相似变动和关联特征;（4）长三角区域地价空间关联格局成因主要是要素流动聚集效应与市场联动。研究结论：当前一体化发展背景下,长三角城市地价一体化效应还不强,应进一步出台区域协调发展政策,促进土地要素流动、土地市场整合与地价协同发展。     

中国城市地价波动的幂律特性

研究目的：实证分析中国城市地价波动的幂律特性,并比较幂指数的差异性。研究方法：最小二乘法（OLS）,最大似然估计法（MLE）,柯尔莫哥洛夫—斯米尔统计量。研究结果：中国城市综合地价、商服地价、住宅地价和工业地价的增长率波动都具有幂律特性,且所估计的幂指数都接近2,但工业地价对应的幂指数明显偏小,这些幂律规律与金融市场的幂律规律具有相似性,而幂指数却存在显著差异性。研究结论：城市地价波动的幂律特性是普适性的规律,能为土地市场进一步的发展完善提供有价值的政策启示。     

基于GWR模型的南京市住宅地价影响因素及其边际价格作用研究

研究目的：以南京市为例,探索城市住宅地价影响因素及其边际作用空间变化性及各因素边际作用大小空间分布状况,为城市土地科学管理提供帮助。研究方法：地理加权回归模型（GWR）。研究结果：（1）地铁站点、商业网点、水景观、绿地公园对住宅地均价的边际影响能力的空间变化性强,高等学校、医院等其他因素边际作用的空间变化性较弱;（2）容积率住宅地价边际增值能力高于其他因素,各因素在具体不同地块上边际作用能力高低不同。研究结论： GWR模型可以改进传统空间回归方法,可对城市地价影响因素边际价格作用空间变化性进行良好的估计;住宅土地价格对快速交通、商服条件及自然景观因素较为敏感,反映主城区人们对住宅便捷性及休憩性呈强偏好;容积率边际增值能力空间变化弱与土地的住宅性用途有关,但容积率始终是边际增值能力最高的因素; GIS良好的输出图像可视化技术能够指导相关部门调控具体地块的主要规划因素,促进城市土地科学管理。     

城市地价空间非平稳格局与测度技术优化应用探索

研究目的：在明晰城市地价空间非平稳格局形成机制的基础上，探索将空间计量经济学前沿技术首次应用于国内地价研究，改进当前常用的地价估计方法及模型，提升地价空间测度的科学性与准确性，为实现对地价空间格局更科学系统的认知及城市空间资源精细化管理提供参考。研究方法：多尺度地理加权回归—空间自回归模型（MGWRSAR模型）。研究结果：（1）区位引导地价形成空间依赖性和异质性非平稳并存的特征。（2）目前既有研究中地价空间格局测度的模型方法未同时考虑两类空间属性参数异构的情况，存在无法测度地价空间依赖强度动态变化的缺陷，模型估计的偏差降低了地价空间研究的准确度。（3）实证结果表明，相较于常用的空间计量模型，MGWR-SAR模型在地价空间非平稳格局测度及决定因素研究中的估计效果更佳。研究结论：未来可采用MGWR-SAR模型提高地价空间测度研究的准确性，并且该模型在其他地理要素空间测度上也具有一定适用性，可为其研究提供技术参考。     

广东省城市更新绩效的时空变化特征及其影响因素分析

研究目的：探索广东省21个地市城市更新绩效的时空变化特征及其影响因素,以期为有序推进城市更新工作提供理论指导和政策设计支点。研究方法：DEA-Malmquist指数,Tobit模型。研究结果：（1）广东省城市更新全要素生产率呈“N”型变化趋势,当前整体绩效水平较低;（2）广东省各地市城市更新绩效空间差异显著,主要由土地利用压力不同导致的规模效率差异所致,全要素生产率变化趋势迥异则是技术进步引致,其根源是创新能力与学习能力的差异;（3）生产要素投入、市场化水平和产业结构是影响城市更新绩效的重要因素。研究结论：广东省的城市更新政策调整应因城施策,合理调整要素投入结构、协调市场与政府的关系、引导产业转型升级将是政策改进的重要支点。     

基于GIS分析的城市商业基准地价空间演变规律研究——以娄底市市区为例

研究目的：借助GIS分析方法对多时点商业基准地价空间变化开展研究,揭示区域城市商业地价空间变化特征与基本规律,探索变化规律的原因。研究方法：IDW空间插值,主成分分析法,回归分析法。研究结论：（1）上升幅度区区段与其所在的商业用地级别基本呈正比,高幅度区在城区中心,商业地价变动幅度与距市中心距离高度敏感;（2）在商业地价的变化影响因素中,经济发展与产业结构调整起主要作用;（3）商业地价总体呈上涨的趋势,多中心商业格局趋势会加强,但不同区域各具特点。     

基于面板数据的省会城市居住地价的差异及成因研究

研究目的：基于2000 — 2006年面板数据,分析省会城市居住地价的差异、主要影响因子及其影响程度。研究方法：混合OLS估计方法、固定效应模型和随机效应模型。研究结果：（1）中国省会城市居住地价存在明显的时空差异,2005年及以后地价增长明显,且东部地区地价与中、西部地区的差距进一步拉大;（2）将城市间居住地价的影响因素分为全国宏观经济因素、区域整体差异因素和城市个体因素三个层面,并基于引致需求理论,构建更具实效性的城市居住地价影响因子体系;（3）建成区面积、城市人均GDP、国际旅游收入、2004年8月31日之后土地供应方式的重大转变（正向关系）和房地产开发投资（负向关系）对居住地价有显著影响。研究结论：面板数据模型是中国城市间地价问题定量分析的一个有效工具。     

叠加法在征地区片综合地价评估中的改进研究--以甘肃省定西市为例

叠加法作为现行征地区片综合地价（区片价）的测算方法之一,有其自身的弊端和局限性,为了切实维护农民权益,充分体现土地价值,提高现行征地补偿标准,本文根据农地的经济、社会、生态价值,通过逻辑推理和实证研究,改进叠加法原理,在综合考虑土地的多重功能的基础上测算区片价;研究结果表明：改进后的叠加法评估的区片价更符合实际。     

基于BIM 的水利工程EPC 项目价值增值影响因素研究

针对当前水利工程EPC项目中信息技术应用效率低下的问题,将BIM技术应用于水利工程EPC项目能够促进项目全生命周期信息和知识的共享,提高项目参建方之间的协同工作能力,实现价值增值。探索基于BIM的水利工程EPC项目价值增值影响因素及作用机理是实现项目价值增值的前提和关键,采用质性研究方法,通过对20名从事水利工程EPC项目建设或研究的人员进行访谈,以及对90篇相关文献进行梳理,识别了BIM技术对水利工程EPC项目价值增值的影响因素;运用DEMATEL-ISM法分析因素间相关性,得到影响因素层次结构。结果表明:BIM市场需求是根源影响因素,BIM技术支持能力、企业重视及投入程度和管理组织建设是影响基于BIM的水利工程EPC项目价值增值的核心因素。     

Lessons from the PB Selayang Land consolidation project in Medan, Indonesia

The National Land Agency (BPN) carried out the PB Selayang Land Consolidation (LC) Project on 79 ha of urban fringe land in Medan from 1986 to 1990 as a pilot project for North Sumatra Province. Although it did not include the construction of the network infrastructure, the project provided valuable benefits and lessons. It demonstrated the feasibility of the LC technique in the Medan context, including the preparation of the needed land parcel map of the site and the 90% landowner support for the project. It created a planned layout of roads and public facility sites and reshaped land parcels with the public lands in government ownership and the private land parcels with registered titles. It also provided lessons to guide the future use of LC in Medan and for all urban LC projects by BPN, including the need to incorporate the construction of the network infrastructure in each project, the desirability of undertaking the projects as joint BPN/ municipal government projects, and the need to make each project self-financing by the sale of some of the new parcels/plots to recover the project costs.     

Power relationships and coalitions in urban renewal and heritage conservation: The Nga Tsin Wai Village in Hong Kong

Urban renewal has been predominantly driven by themes of property-led and economic profit-driven redevelopment. The immense redevelopment pressures in dense urban cities have often posed unresolved conflicts in the conservation of historic quarters, particularly vernacular buildings with local significance instead of designated monuments with outstanding heritage value. This study examines the 20-year debate over the conservation and redevelopment of Nga Tsin Wai Old Village, one of the very few remaining villages in the urban area in Hong Kong. This case vividly demonstrates the contestations between the urban redevelopment and heritage conservation regimes and the multiple power relations that exist within each coalition. By combining the urban regime theory with the growth machine thesis, this study illustrates the complex interplay of power relations and struggles amongst different actors to determine their roles and interests, exercise of power and formation of coalitions. As such, the findings of this work improve our understanding of the sequential interrelationships amongst the power struggles of different actors, the redistribution of power, the formed coalitions and the supportive institutional arrangements in the redevelopment–conservation debate, thereby minimising the imbalanced power relations between these two discourses. This study also provides insights that can aid in the formulation of land use planning policies that can also be applied to other cities that are undergoing urban renewal.     

A constructability assessment method (CAM) for sustainable division of land parcels

Historically the land development process has lacked a decision support structure for evaluating undeveloped parcels of land for compatibility with land use policy and engineering constraints. This paper demonstrates an applied multi-criteria decision support structure for characterizing the spatial distribution and classification of a parcel’s potential to support residential lot construction. This support structure is based on parcel attributes quantified in a typical site feasibility report, to include: potential house yield, wetlands area, soil types, streams (surface drains), and steep slope areas. The analytical capabilities of geographic information system (GIS) are employed in the decision support structure named the constructability assessment method (CAM). CAM integrates a dynamic multi-criteria attribute assessment method, based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), for a given set of administrative requirements, and engineering constraints and judgment.The results of a case study using CAM characterized the approximate location of ideal lots for homes construction in an R-1 zoning district located on a 1290 acre land parcel in Loudoun County, VA, while avoiding existing hydric soils, floodplains, steep slopes, and forested areas. The number of ideal lots for a given set of engineering and administrative constraints represented a 65% reduction from the maximum lots permitted by regulatory constraints alone. The methodology used in this case study provides a consistent and repeatable land parcel analysis technique for undeveloped land parcels, and can be adapted and/or extended to a number of similar publicly available geographic datasets and constraint. In estimating optimal development density, CAM meets the needs of zoning administrators as well as the developers, thus offering a demand-driven market-based solution for sustainable land development.     

美国土地价值捕获制度及其借鉴

在美国,土地价值捕获（value capture）是指将土地的自然增值全部或部分回收归于社会的过程。本文对美国“土地价值捕获”的原理与实现方式进行了分析,总结特点,提出了针对我国土地增值收益分配的借鉴意义。     

Assembling land for urban revitalization in the presence of linchpin parcels and information asymmetries: An experimental investigation

This study uses economic experiments to determine if information asymmetries are likely to frustrate government efforts to assemble land for urban revitalization when there is a linchpin parcel that must be acquired to move a development project forward. Results suggest holdout behavior is more pronounced when landowners know a linchpin parcel exists. Surprisingly, landowners who know they control such parcels are found to be more willing to sell than those who are uncertain about the strategic importance of their properties. These observations raise interesting questions about the nature of holdout problems and how they can potentially be overcome by approaching land assembly in a transparent manner.     

基于熵值法的城市土地可持续利用评价——以石家庄市为例

城市土地利用系统是自然—社会一经济的复合系统,城市土地可持续利用目标就是要达到环境效益、经济效益和社会效益的协调统一;从资源环境支撑性、经济可行性、社会可接受性等3个方面,选取了30项评价指标,构建了城市土地可持续利用的评价指标体系,运用熵值法确定指标权重,对石家庄市1999~2005年的城市土地持续利用水平进行了动态评价,通过可持续利用障碍诊断,确定持续利用的障碍因素,提出针对性的对策与建议。     

基于GIS网格技术的城镇周边永久基本农田划定研究——以江苏宜兴市为例

[目的]通过运用网格化技术和综合评价法将研究区划分为4类永久基本农田划定类型区,为创新县域尺度永久基本农田保护区划定的方法和技术体系,协调耕地保护、经济发展和生态保护之间的关系提供有力支撑。[方法]文章以宜兴市为实证研究区,将城镇周边区域网格化,选取综合等别、距城镇和可建设占用区的距离等因子作为评价指标,确定永久基本农田约束划入区。同时,根据土壤综合污染指数修订耕地利用等,得到耕地综合等,然后以耕地距离城镇、交通干线的距离和空间连片度作为评价指标,对耕地进行立地条件评价并划分等级,最后将约束划入区以外的耕地以综合等-立地条件的形式,划分为不同的类型区。[结果](1)城镇外延区被划分为1.232 0万个100m×100m的网格评价单元,在网格环境下,纳入约束划入区的耕地面积5 170.33hm~2,占全部耕地的9.65%;(2)耕地利用等修订后得到的综合等与利用等相比,耕地等别依然集中在4、5等,受重金属污染区影响出现了8等耕地;(3)约束划入区外的耕地被划分为优先划入区、适宜划入区及整治划入区,耕地面积占比分别为21.16%、40.52%及28.67%。[结论]通过网格化确定的约束划入型主要分布在规划选定的重点建设项目区和有条件建设区,与城镇主要发展方向一致,既满足了城镇连片发展的需求,也实现了对城镇周边优质耕地优先保护;优先划入型分布在城镇周边或交通干线沿线,区位条件优越,且耕地质量高;适宜划入型在立地条件或综合等方面有较大发展潜力,可通过整治措施提升其质量水平;整治划入型受重金属污染严重,综合等别较低且立地条件较差,在经过差别化的土地整治后可作为入选永久基本农田的后备资源。     

基于土地利用功能最大化的多情景土地利用优化研究

目的 基于土地利用功能价值最大化对自然发展情景、农业生产功能优先情景、经济发展功能优先情景及生态保育功能优先情景下的土地利用结构及布局进行优化,得到2026年保定市土地利用合理结构与布局。方法 文章利用MOP模型优化各情景土地利用结构、FLUS模型优化各情景土地利用空间布局、耦合协调模型分析各情景功能协调性。结果 各情景下草地面积都减少,建设用地及水域面积都增长。除农业生产功能优先情景外,耕地面积都呈下降趋势。经济发展功能优先情景土地利用功能总价值最高,农业生产功能优先情景最低;各情景下建设用地都以外延式增长;林地都以外延式及填充式在山地丘陵地区扩张;农业生产功能优先、经济发展功能优先及生态保育功能优先情景的土地利用结构耦合协调度高于自然发展情景,经济发展功能优先情景下功能间关系最协调。结论 在现行土地利用变化趋势下,未来保定市土地利用功能将严重失调,需严格落实耕地及生态用地保护政策、推动建设用地高效利用,实现土地利用功能协调及价值最大化。     

The problem of fair division of surplus development rights in redevelopment of urban areas: Can the Shapley value help?

Many more people are expected to live in urban areas in the coming decades, and much of the physical transformation will take place in the built-up areas of cities. Landownership is a key factor in urban regeneration, and the fair division of benefits is a major obstacle to redeveloping urban land in a cooperative context. This paper aims to show that the Shapley value, a fair division scheme developed within the cooperative game theory framework, can be used to achieve a fair division of the surplus development rights among landowners remolding smaller and irregular parcels into bigger and regular ones, resulting in higher aggregate development rights. The methodology is illustrated by a case study of three parcels selected from the Karabaglar district in Izmir, Turkey, where surplus development rights are available for landowners cooperating for land amalgamation. The findings show that the Shapley values for the landowners satisfy the core conditions of the game and landowners can benefit from the highest possible development rights and share the surplus fairly. However, the current institutional setting has to be restructured to apply such division schemes.     

The assessment of land valuation in land consolidation schemes: The need for a new land valuation framework

There are principally two ways for quantifying the land value of parcels in land consolidation schemes. The first approach involves assigning an agronomic value based on soil quality and land productivity represented by a score while the second method determines the market value signified in monetary terms. In Cyprus, the market value is employed, which is defined through an empirical process based on visual inspection of all parcels and hence it constitutes a type of mass land appraisal. This process presents weaknesses regarding time, costs, transparency, accuracy, reliability, consistency and fairness. In addition, the lack of adequate sales transactions in rural areas further complicates the whole process. Consequently, these deficiencies have adverse effects in the preparation of land consolidation plans and cause arguments between landowners and the authorities carrying out each scheme. Although experts are aware of this issue, there is a lack of research investigating land valuation factors and the quality of this traditional process. Therefore, this paper discusses, explores and assesses the land valuation undertaken by the Land Valuation Committee (LVC) in a case study area in Cyprus and proposes a new framework for carrying out this process. The assessment of the current process is undertaken by employing advanced spatial analysis techniques, including multiple regression analysis (MRA) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) within a GIS. Results show that eight out of fourteen land valuation factors related to parcel location characteristics, legal factors, physical attributes and economic conditions are the most significant. In addition, although the basic regression fits are quite good, some of the assumptions required for testing the hypothesis are not met, indicating unreliability and inconsistency in the relationships modelled. Furthermore, the presence of spatial autocorrelation reveals important regional variation in these factors suggesting significant inconsistencies in the valuation policy applied by the LVC. The latter two findings confirm experts’ concerns and suggest the need for a new land valuation framework that is designed to overcome the problems of the current process. The application of this framework and the investigation of various critical relevant issues is the core of ongoing further research.