ON THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH IN CANADA*

This paper is concerned with measurement of the size distribution of personal wealth in Canada. The only available estimates of this distribution are those provided on the occasions when Statistics Canada's Survey of Consumer Finance has surveyed assets and debts. Results of the latest “SCF” to do this, that of 1977, are not yet available. The paper shows that the previous study, conducted in 1970, indicated wealth-inequality as viewed by top quantile shares roughly of the same order as estimated by others for the U.S. and U.K. A comparison of asset and debt aggregates implied by the survey, however, with independent totals indicates that for almost all items the SCF likely under-estimated true holdings. The possible relative importance of sampling and non-sampling errors in explaining this distortion is considered, drawing on Monte Carlo evidence and American validation studies of survey response. It is concluded that sampling error is unlikely to provide the explanation for SCF discrepancies in aggregates, but that non-sampling error is capable of doing so. Finally the 1970 SCF distribution of wealth is re-estimated. First a correction is made for hypothetical differential response according to true net worth. Second an attempt is made to remove the effects of under-reporting by respondents. The “best-guess” re-estimated distribution exhibits mean net worth considerably greater than shown by the SCF but only a slightly greater degree of concentration. Under certain fundamental assumptions this result is surprisingly robust. The appropriate conclusion is not that survey estimates of the distribution of wealth are reliable, but that the strong non-sampling errors affecting the 1970 Canadian SCF wealth estimates may have been composed of almost completely offsetting sources of bias.     

THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLD DISPOSABLE WEALTH IN THE UNITED STATES

In this study, new estimates are presented of the size distribution of household wealth in the U.S. in 1969. Compared to previous studies, its major advance is the inclusion of all marketable or discretionary household assets and liabilities and their alignment with national balance sheet totals. Household disposable wealth (HDW) is defined as the sum of all marketable or fungible assets held by households less liabilities. The Gini coefficient for HDW is 0.72, the share held by the richest one percent of households is 31 percent, and the share held by the top five percent is 49 percent. There is, however, a large variation in the concentration of different household assets. The Gini coefficient is 0.30 for household durables and inventories, 0.69 for equity in owner-occupied housing, 0.94 for bonds and securities, and 0.98 for corporate stock. HDW is then divided into two mutually exclusive components. The first, called "life-cycle wealth," is defined as the sum of equity in owner-occupied housing, durables, household inventory, demand deposits and currency, and the cash value of life insurance and pensions less consumer debt. This form of wealth tends to be accumulated over the life-cycle for either consumption, liquidity, or retirement purposes. The second, called "capital wealth," is the sum of time and savings deposits, bonds and securities, corporate stock, business and investment real estate equity, and trust fund equity. Life-cycle wealth is substantially less concentrated than capital wealth. The Gini coefficient for it is 0.59, while that for capital wealth is 0.88. Moreover, among the lower wealth groups, over 80 percent of household wealth takes the form of life-cycle wealth, whereas among the top wealth groups the proportion is under 20 percent. The results suggest substantially different savings motivations between the two groups.     

THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF PERSONAL WEALTH IN FRANCE (1977): A FIRST ATTEMPT AT THE ESTATE DUTY METHOD

This paper reports upon the first official application of the estate multiplier method of estimating the wealth distribution to French data. It is based upon a sample of estate duty returns filed during the period September-December 1977. The sampling rate was 5 percent for estates under one million francs, and 100 percent for estates over this level, giving a total of 5031 records. The data available did not permit a breakdown by type of asset. It did, however, permit classification of estates by age, sex, and occupation of decedent. Experiments were conducted using five different sets of mortality multipliers. The set of mortality multipliers judged most appropriate leads to an estimate of aggregate net wealth that is 77 percent of that given in the national balance sheet of the national accounts. Comparison of the distributions of wealth derived in these estimates suggest that the figures are consistent with those found in other countries.     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH IN CANADA

For estimates of the wealth distribution Canada depends on household surveys taken at 6–7 year intervals. The latest data from this source refer to household balance sheets in the spring of 1977. A comparison with 1970 shows that there is little change in the composition of wealth held by households but that inequality of the wealth distribution has been somewhat reduced. Wealth data by age of family head is presented in order to describe more fully the wealth distribution and composition in Canada.
Weaknesses in the data are discussed as well as the difficulties of making appropriate adjustments to the data at the micro record level. For policy evaluation and formulation purposes the lack of comprehensive estimates inclusive of pension wealth as well as the small sample size (12,700 usable records) have been perceived as greater obstacles to utilizing the data than the underestimate in aggregate assets and debts which affects more the higher than the middle and lower ranges of the wealth distribution.     

THE CONCENTRATION OF PERSONAL WEALTH IN AMERICA, 1969

This essay focuses on the problems of estimating the share of America's personal wealth in the hands of affluent individuals by a technique known as the estate multiplier method. Rather than exploring these problems in an empirical vacuum, we first present some results from the most recent estimates of the distribution of U.S. personal wealth.¹ The estimates—for the year 1969—are then used as a basis for gauging the sensitivity of estate multiplier estimates to variations in approach.
Section I presents new empirical findings dealing with the asset holdings of top wealth-holders and the super rich, and with the shares of specific assets owned by them. Also presented is information about the sex and marital status of the super rich.
Section II discusses various technical aspects of the estate multiplier as applied to federal estate tax returns. The main concern is with the weighting process, but attention is paid to the fact that estate tax returns filed in a given year are not for decedents who died in that year or any single year, and to the problems of adjusting the face value of life insurance to cash surrender value.     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH IN SWEDEN

This paper is concerned with the distribution of wealth in Sweden in 1975 and its development during the period 1920–75. The paper is based on a large study on wealth undertaken for the Swedish Commission on Wage-Earners and Capital Formation. The first report from this study was presented in 1979 as a book in Swedish: Roland Spånt, Den svenska förmögenhetsfördelningens utveckling (The Development of the Distribution of Wealth in Sweden), SOU 1979:9. That first report will also be published in English. Prior to that the main results can be found in this paper.
During 1980–81 we intend to publish specific reports on the distribution of shareholding, the effects of inflation, the development of the distribution of wealth 1975–78, the importance of pension rights etc.     

MEASUREMENT OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH IN CANADA

The only periodic data available in Canada on the asset holdings and net worth of the household sector are data collected through a series of household surveys originally initiated in 1954. Some limited data on the holdings of financial claims by the personal and unincorporated business sector are available from flow of funds work. Data are unavailable for estimation from estate tax returns.
The scope of the surveys has been expanded substantially so that the most recent survey obtained a very comprehensive list of asset holdings. The experience with Canadian surveys has been similar to that of other countries; surveys appear to underestimate asset holdings although the estimates are more reliable for widely held assets than for assets with a very skewed distribution. Nevertheless, the surveys appear to trace the accumulated distribution of personal savings over time to a considerable degree and provide useful cross-sectional trend data.
Canadian data show that wealth is more unequally distributed among family units than is income although wealth appears to be more equally distributed between income groups than is income. Wealth is also very unequally distributed within the same income group. Over time, there appears to have been some movement towards a more equal distribution of asset holdings between income groups.     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME AND WEALTH IN JAPAN

This paper reviews research on the distribution of income and wealth in Japan, identifies sources of data on income and wealth, and describes limitations of these data. Evidence that Japan's poorest income groups are relatively well-off is convincing, but there is less evidence that the overall distribution of income in Japan is more equal than in other OECD countries. Agricultural policy, social welfare policy, the tax system, trends in earnings differentials, and the role of the Japanese family are among the many factors that have shaped Japan's income distribution. The rapid appreciation of the stock market and land prices during the late 1980s led to greater inequality in the distribution of wealth. Rapid population aging is expected to lead to an increase in total national wealth relative to national income which may have an adverse impact on the distribution of income.     

THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME IN LIBERIA

The economy of Liberia is one in which, in spite of past satisfactory growth performance, a high level of income inequality persists. In 1977, for instance, a mere 2 percent of the people accounted for some 33 percent of nation-wide wage income. These people live disproportionately in Montserrado County in which the capital city is located. While each of the other counties are largely rural and poor, each has far lower intra-county inequality than wealthy Montserrado.
Intersectoral location of the income-earner, average income levels and the extent of access to human capital formation opportunities are some characteristics of the economy that have been found to explain significant portions of intercounty variations in the levels of household income concentration. Income inequality is reduced with increases in the extent of agricultural activity as the share of the top income group falls and that of the bottom group rises. The reverse happens with growing urban-area activity. Higher income concentration occurs with rising per capita incomes as the top group's income share rises and the bottom income group's share falls. While this appears to be an instance of the Kuznet U-shaped hypothesis, here there are no definite signs of a possible reversal any time soon. The levels of access to educational facilities move inversely with the level of inequality, with expanding elementary facilities benefiting the poorer people at the expense of the wealthy while the reverse happens in the case of expanding secondary educational facilities.     

DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH IN AUSTRALIA*

This paper discusses the distribution of wealth derived from the Australian Survey of Consumer Finances and Expenditures, 1966-68, carried out jointly by Macquarie University and the University of Queensland. It analyzes the composition of net worth, assets, and liabilities by socio-demographic characteristics and over time.     

TRENDS IN THE CONCENTRATION OF PERSONAL WEALTH IN THE UNITED STATES, 1958 TO 1976

The trend in the concentration of U.S. wealth from 1958 through 1976 is examined in some detail and summary data are used to extend the period over which the trend is observed back to 1922. The data suggests a long-run secular decline in the concentration of U.S. wealth with a rather sharp decline in 1976, the last year for which measurements were made. Although the secular decline in wealth concentration is supported by numerous observations across 50 years, the precipitous decline measured between 1972 and 1976 should be interpreted with caution because it undoubtedly reflects the substantial downward revaluation which occurred in the stock market from 1972 (most recent previous observation) to 1976. This is not to argue that wealth holders at the top of the distribution were not made significantly less affluent by the revaluation, but that the 1976 observation includes a large cyclical component. Future observations which include the subsequent upward revaluation in the stock market are expected to show levels of concentration comparable to or only slightly below those for 1958 through 1972.     

人工智能的财富分配效应研究

人工智能对经济不平等的影响引起学术界的广泛重视,但是现有研究以分析其对劳动收入不平等的影响为主,关于人工智能对财富分配从而对财产性收入不平等影响的相关研究尚有欠缺。本文通过构建一个连续时间异质性个体动态一般均衡模型,将人工智能对生产技术的影响看作一揽子偏向性技术进步,研究人工智能技术对财富分配的影响。分析发现,人工智能对财富不平等的影响在短期和长期表现有所不同,短期中人工智能技术的应用会提高经济中财富分配不平等程度,而长期中其财富分配效应则取决于人工智能对不同类型技术进步的促进程度。核心机制在于,人工智能技术进步的多样性在短期和长期中对资本回报率产生不同影响,短期中各类技术进步总是会提高资本回报率,而在长期,不同类型的技术进步对资本回报率的影响出现差异。基于以上结论,本文就我国如何在应用人工智能促进增长的同时预防不平等程度扩大提出了政策建议。     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF TOTAL WEALTH IN ITALY: 1991–2002

We estimate an "augmented" measure of wealth incorporating social security wealth for the first time in Italy, and examine the composition and distribution of such augmented wealth among Italian households during the period 1991–2002. The path followed by augmented wealth from 1991 to 2002 is determined by two opposing forces: namely an increase in net worth and a decline in social security wealth, which appears to be much more pronounced in the first part of the period. Wealth inequality, after rising steeply at the beginning of the 1990s, leveled off during the second part of the period in question. The major contribution toward this upwards movement came from social security wealth, the distribution of which, although less unequal than that of real wealth and financial wealth, widened at a much faster pace at the beginning of the decade.     

PERSONAL SECTOR WEALTH IN THE UNITED KINGDOM, 1920–56

In the United Kingdom there is a wide range of sources which make it possible to construct a series for components of personal wealth for the period 1920–56. The data are consistent with contemporary estimates produced for specific years in the 1920s and 1930s. They indicate that a stock-market boom and the effects of deflation and low interest rates on the nominal value of the national debt took the wealth/income ratio in the mid-1930s to a level not seen again until the housing boom of the 1980s.     

THE RATE OF CHANGE IN THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF WAGES AS A VECTOR

This paper attempts to measure the rate of change in the size distribution of wages over time in a rigorous, analytic way, and to relate that change to the business cycle. The basic problem for which this paper provides a solution is to relate changes in a size distribution to levels of and changes in single-dimensioned variables (unemployment, Gross National Product, and the consumers price index). Let F stand for the cumulative relative size distribution of wages, a function of wages. F takes on values zero through one. Let be a given value of F , e.g., = 0.25. The proposed solution to the basic problem is to measure the rate of change in consecutive F 's at . The composite of such measurements at over time forms a vector, the length of which depends upon the number of time periods observed. The number of vectors thus derived depends upon the number of values of selected. The various vectors are then related to the general economic conditions and the respective values of . The general economic conditions have a differential effect on the various vectors; e.g., those wage earners with relatively low wages are affected differently by a given turn of the business cycle than are those with high wages.
The paper includes several supplementary investigations: (a) estimating each of the annual cumulative relative size distributions of wages for a specific analytic function, (b) relating analytically the size distribution construct to the Lorenz curve concept and the Gini coefficient, (c) predicting and simulating size distributions for various economic conditions, (d) formulating tax trade-offs, and (e) suggesting further uses and extensions.     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH IN URBAN CHINA AND IN CHINA AS A WHOLE IN 1995

The composition, inequality and determinants of wealth among households in urban China in 1995 are studied. In addition, we compare the wealth distribution in urban China with the wealth distribution in rural China and present the first estimates of inequality in the distribution of household wealth in China as a whole. The results show that housing wealth makes up a large part of net worth in urban China. Most urban Chinese households keep a bank account; debts are unusual. A household's net worth is strongly related to its income and location. Net worth is more unequally distributed among urban households than among rural households. However, compared to the situation in most industrialized countries, net worth in urban China and in China as a whole appear to be rather equally distributed.     

ON THE POSSIBILITY OF MEASURING THE DISTRIBUTION OF PERSONAL INCOME

The income distribution statistics which are based on income for a single year show a far larger inequality of income than actually exists. The distribution of annual incomes differs from the distribution of lifetime income partly because of short run fluctuations because of such things as sickness, unemployment, and unusual gains, and partly because different individuals are at different points in their life cycles. The vertical distribution of income can be considered to be the distribution of lifetime income. The horizontal distribution can be considered to be the differences arising in the current period due to short run fluctuations and differences in the age-income cycle of persons. The observed annual income distribution statistics are a mixture of the vertical and horizontal distributions. The estimation of the lifetime income distribution implies discounting, and also raises questions as to the treatment of transfers, subsidies, public investments and taxes. However, statistics based upon a mixture of the horizontal and vertical distributions of income are of no interest.     

CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS IN FACTOR SHARES AND THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME

The way in which cyclical fluctuations in activity in the U.K. economy affect factor income shares and the channels through which these effects work through to the size distribution of income are traced. Using National Accounts data, the impact of an upturn in activity in increasing the shares of profits and self-employment income in factor incomes, and of self-employment and rent, interest and dividends in personal incomes, is quantified. Using Family Expenditure Survey micro-data, the resulting shift in decile shares in personal income, which is towards the top of the size distribution, is estimated.