经济高位运行 深层次矛盾突出——对当前宏观经济的分析与思考

2006年，中国经济增长速度再次加速，经济是否过热成为大家议论的热点。我们分析认为，虽然目前的经济高增长有一定合理的成分，但也使经济发展过程中固有的矛盾更加突出。事实上，经济发展中出现的问题（过热倾向）一方面需要短期政策的应对，更重要的是深层次矛盾的凸显意味着中国经济转型已到了不得不为的时候了。面对目前的经济发展态势，政策措施应兼顾短期与长期两方面，而且更多地需要从理顺利益关系、转变政府职能等制度性方面着手。     

马克思经济危机理论对社会主义市场经济建设的启示

马克思主义传统理论认为,经济危机根源于资本主义基本矛盾,是资本主义特有的经济现象。事实上经济危机的爆发是市场经济的正常现象,在我国社会主义市场经济运行过程中,同样具备了经济危机发生的基本条件和要素。所以,必须从规范市场、平衡供求、调整产业结构、改革金融体制、控制两极分化等多方面把握好宏观调控,在市场经济条件下及时转变政府职能,从而避免经济危机发生。     

On Export Composition and Growth

The hypothesis that exports in technology-intensive industries have a higher potential for positive externalities coupled with higher productivity levels (due to higher rates of capitalization) is tested using a comprehensive and detailed data set, covering 45 industrialized and developing countries and including exports of 33 industries over the time period 1981–1997. The estimation results, using a random effects model and employing an instrumental variables estimator, support the hypothesis of qualitative differences between high- and low-tech exports with respect to output growth. The superior performance of high-tech exports stems from their positive productivity differential to the domestic sector, while the externality effect is not significant at any meaningful level of significance. The positive productivity differential is only significant for the subsample of developing countries. No significant effects were found to be present in the subsample of OECD member countries. JEL no. O41, O50, C23, F14     

经济危机下贸易保护主义的特征、影响及其应对策略

在全球经济走弱的大环境下,为加大保护本国产业力度,贸易保护策略受到各国政府青睐。贸易保护主义无疑将直接冲击和影响我国的进出口贸易,在较长时期内使我国的国际贸易环境复杂化。因此,本文通过深入研究经济危机贸易保护主义的主要特点、发展趋势以及对我国出口贸易的影响,探讨政府应对贸易保护主义的对策。     

后危机时代我国政府治理模式的转型与定位——以政府与市场关系为观察视角

政府与市场之间的关系是国家治理所必须思考的首要问题,是治理模式选择的重要依据。政府和市场之间的权力边界的确定是双方力量均衡的结果,每一次市场的经济波动总会为二者关系的定位提出新的思考。2008年经济危机过程中,主张政府干预的凯恩斯主义登场并取得了一定成效。在后危机时代,面对低碳经济的发展要求,中国市场呈现出消费需求不足、城市化潜力释放缓慢、投资结构不合理等问题。所以面对各类市场需求,在后危机时代,政府应转变治理方式,权力触角逐渐淡出经济领域,让市场实现自我完善的同时进一步推进社会治理。     

Growth Effects of Economic Integration: Evidence from the EU Member States

After compiling an index of economic integration that accounts for global (GATT) as well as regional (European) integration of the EU member states we test for permanent and temporary growth effects in a growth accounting framework, using a panel of fifteen EU member states over the period 1950–2000. While the hypothesis of permanent growth effects is rejected, the results—though not completely robust to controlling for time-specific effects—suggest sizeable level effects: GDP per capita of the EU would be approximately one-fifth lower today if no integration had taken place since 1950. JEL no. C33, F15, F43, O52     

金融危机后经济结构调整中的财政政策取向

目前,随着金融危机后世界经济的调整和变革,我国经济结构长期存在的各种矛盾不断凸显,现有的经济结构状况面临诸多挑战。由于财政政策对促进经济结构调整具有明显优势和效果,为此,要充分发挥财政政策的特有功能和作用,加快推进经济结构调整。     

关于次贷危机冲击下中国经济转型的思考

次贷危机对中国经济产生冲击已成事实,中国经济转型在所难免。本文所论述的经济转型不是以往学者所讨论的体制转型,而特指结构转型。中国经济以往过度依赖出口和投资拉动,危机后出口受挫,再过度依赖投资势必引发产能过剩和需求不足的矛盾。本文作者认为,当前中国经济的首要任务是拉动内需,而拉动内需必须和改善民生、发展社会福利事业结合起来。当前应采取积极的财政政策,财政支出的重点在于消除民众消费的瓶颈,大力发展民生工程和社会福利事业,积极促进就业。     

Platform pricing redux

Platforms such as Airbnb, Amazon, Apple iOS, eBay, Microsoft Windows, and Uber are ubiquitous. The two-sided nature of platform markets, however, requires a reconsideration of the conditions for profit maximization and understanding of how platforms operate. Profit-maximization in two-sided markets is characterized as an intuitive extension of the inverse elasticity pricing rule (Lerner index). This is further expressed in terms of the participants' primitives: users' reservation values and the platform's marginal cost. Differences between one- and two-sided markets are demonstrated and discussed.     

Share ribs redux

Attempts to examine how commodity price changes affect internal income distribution in competitive Heckscher–Ohlin settings have typically focused on factor-intensity differences among sectors, with each sector having a different factor being used most intensively, as captured by its factor distributive share having maximal value. This paper adopts this specification, but adds the restriction that the  shape  of the profile of distributive factor shares, from most to least intensively used, be the same among commodities. The focus is on the importance of the amount by which the most intensively used factor differs from the next as well as the rate of decline of shares for the less intensively used factors in any industry. Strong Stolper–Samuelson results are obtained for some share ribs, and oscillating factor returns for others.     

中国经济发展与世界金融危机

改革开放以来,中国经济一直保持平稳迅速发展,除有效利用欧美日等国的资本、技术、经营理念等因素之外,亚洲华人企业的贡献也不可忽视。但中国在经济发展过程中也产生很多问题,如贫富差距扩大、泡沫经济的形成以及环境污染等。2008年世界金融危机的爆发导致世界大多数国家失业率提高、贸易保护主义抬头、政府财政赤字增大等。中国采取了有效的宏观调控政策,经济持续发展,成为引领亚洲乃至整个世界经济成长的重要力量。     

经济自由与经济增长:来自各国的证据

本文对美国传统基金会发布的经济自由度指数与各国经济增长水平进行了实证检验.结果表明,在控制了劳动力人口、资本存量以及人力资本等变量后,经济自由度与经济增长水平之间存在非常密切的关系,从而为自亚当·斯密以来的自由经济理论提供了新的证据.本文利用工具变量法,证明了经济自由是经济增长的原因,为这方面的实证研究做出了新的贡献.希望通过上述工作能够更好地理解制度因素(特别是自由经济制度)在推动经济增长中的关键作用以及导致各国之间经济差距的根源.     

经济危机下广东文化产业的发展机遇

当下的经济危机对于广东文化产业的发展究竟是机遇还是挑战?本文提出,经济学领域存在一个"口红效应"的现象,在经济危机的条件下,文化产业反而会出现一个反经济周期的增长态势。本文将追溯"口红效应"的历史由来,阐述口红效应的经济学原理,以及其内在的机制,并据此检视广东文化产业,正处在经济危机中的文化产业能否抓住历史的机遇,使广东文化产业呈现"口红效应"。     

韩国政府应对国际金融危机的政策及其启示

危机应对政策对于金融危机后的经济恢复具有重要作用。从2008年金融危机之后韩国政府一系列的经济恢复政策看,及时的干预时点、推陈出新的干预手段、合理的宏观政策搭配和配套的微观措施是实体经济从金融危机中恢复的关键性因素。     

Income Inequality,Human Capital,and Income Growth: Evidence from a State-Level VAR Analysis

We use Granger causality and impulse response analysis to examine the relationship between income inequality, human capital attainment, and income growth using annual state-level data over the period 1929–2000. We find consistent evidence that the income share of the top decile Granger-causes income growth, but only weak evidence that income growth Granger-causes the top decile income share. Moreover, an impulse response analysis indicates that income growth responds negatively to permanent changes in the income share of the top decile. These findings appear to have important regional variations, however, with the more densely populated Eastern states showing the strongest associations. We also find evidence that years of schooling may Granger-cause income levels, but little evidence that years of schooling Granger-causes the top decile income share.

Does inflation matter for growth?

The interaction between inflation and economic growth is studied within a simple model incorporating money and finance into an optimal growth framework with constant returns to capital. The model includes the potential impact of inflation on growth, via (a) saving and real interest rates, (b) velocity and financial development, (c) the government budget deficit through the inflation tax and tax erosion, and (d) efficiency in production through the wedge between the returns to real and financial capital. The hypothesized effect of inflation on long-run growth through these channels is estimated by applying the random-effects panel model to two sets of unbalanced panel data side by side, from the Penn World Tables and from the World Bank, covering 170 countries from 1960 to 1992. The cross-country links between inflation and growth are economically and statistically significant and robust. Specifically, the results show that inflation in excess of 10–20 percent per year is generally detrimental to growth.     

中国年度经济分析：警惕结构性失衡

在投资需求的强劲拉动下，2006年中国经济处在增长周期的高位段，结构性失衡是经济发展的主要问题。根据国内外经济环境，考虑到虽然支持经济增长的因素仍然存在，但世界经济增长的乏力，外需拉动贡献的减弱、结构性失衡的长期影响等，初步预计2007年中国经济增长速度将保持在9．5％。     

经济增长目标压力下的国企投资规律及效应研究——来自地级经济增长目标与上市公司样本的证据

中国地方政府肩负着实现地方经济增长的任务,在其面临经济增长压力时,必然想法设法稳增长。文章进一步拓展已有文献,提出了一个地方政府借助国有企业投资扩张保障地方经济增长目标实现的逻辑框架。文章采用2001-2016年地级市经济增长目标数据,构造了一个度量地方政府面临的经济增长压力的指标,结合A股上市公司微观数据对理论逻辑进行验证。实证发现:增长压力显著提高了国有上市公司的投资,对非国有上市公司则没有明显影响。这一规律在中国经济受到重大冲击的情况下更加明显。最后,发现在经济增长压力下的国有上市公司投资扩张对企业投资效率有不利影响。文章的研究增进了对国有经济作用以及中国经济增长规律的学理认识。     

经济危机根源及其消除方法论

扫描人类活动,从中找到了公平、质效、GDP三个关键点。公平因素包括不公平分配和不公平交易,是引发经济危机的根本点。为实现公平,从土地切入发现了平衡工农城乡利益机制的投资置业系数CIP=(0,4]。这只能消除贫富悬殊引发的产消不畅之实体危机。为全面消除经济危机,应针对经济危机的六个阶段建设消除经济危机的系统工程。经济发展总是从公平到不公平,从公平、质效、GDP三者平衡到不平衡,最后进入经济危机状态;经济危机往往从金融危机开始,而我们应从土地切入调动资金作战。     

转型中的财政分权、地区增长差异与公共品供给

现有的分权理论大多强调分权对经济转型的激励作用,却很少提及其负面效应,尤其是无法清晰地解释分权程度与地区经济增长差异间的关系。本文结合Dewatripont and Maskin（1995）提出的DM模型和Zhuravskaya（2000）的模型,构造了符合中国这样区域发展不平衡转型大国的理论模型,并对此进行深入研究,认为：1）经济发达地区分权程度增加对公共品投资及经济增长有正向的激励;2）经济落后地区,分权程度增加很难激励有效的公共品投资和经济增长,政府职务消费反而会增加;3）分权程度的增加很可能会导致地区经济差距加大。