Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda

This paper examines the extent to which various regions, and the world as a whole, could gain from multilateral trade reform over the next decade. The World Bank's Linkage model of the global economy is employed to examine the impact first of current trade barriers and agricultural subsidies, and then of possible outcomes from the WTO's Doha Round. The results suggest moving to free global merchandise trade would boost real incomes in sub‐Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia (and in Cairns Group countries) proportionately more than in other developing countries or high‐income countries. Real returns to farmland and unskilled labour, and real net farm incomes, would rise substantially in those developing‐country regions, thereby helping to reduce poverty. A Doha partial liberalisation could take the world some way towards those desirable outcomes, but more so the more agricultural subsidies are disciplined and applied tariffs are cut, and the more not just high‐income but also developing countries choose to engage in the process of reform.     

多哈发展议程与中国外贸可持续发展

协调贸易与发展的温尼伯原则促进WTO将环境措施融入了多边贸易体系之中。2001年WTO多哈部长级会议上,各方一致同意就贸易与环境议题进行谈判,力图实现贸易、环境与发展“三赢”的局面。我国作为WTO成员国,必须实施贸易与环境相互协调的外贸可持续发展战略,充分利用WTO多边贸易协议,支持环境项目;调整产业结构,加快发展第三产业;提倡集约化经营战略和循环经济发展模式,发展技术型产品,替代资源型产品的出口;内部化环境成本,促进贸易与环境和谐统一发展;实施绿色产品战略,推行环境标志认证;利用WTO争端解决机制解决贸易纠纷,以实现贸易和环境的相互协调,实现传统经济增长和发展模式向可持续发展模式的转变     

More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round: Winners and Losers from Trade Liberalisation with a Development Perspective

What is at stake in the standoff and suspension of the Doha Round of trade talks? What impact would an agreement based on greater or lesser levels of ambition have on developing countries, whose economies are relatively dependent on agriculture? Using the MIRAGE computable general equilibrium model of the global economy, in this article we compare different scenarios for the Doha agricultural and NAMA negotiations, taking real numbers from the proposals on the table from the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) in December 2005. The results for both scenarios demonstrate the high stakes for successful completion of this negotiation given the positions articulated by the countries involved. A cooperative reform outcome by the US and the EU – based on the most ambitious components of their negotiating proposals – delivers noticeably more benefits than an unambitious outcome. We measure the degree of ambition in each scenario by the construction of a Mercantilist Trade Restrictiveness Index and focus the analysis on the impacts on developing countries.     

Multilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalisation: The Contrasting Fortunes of Developing Countries in the Doha Round

An applied general equilibrium model is used to assess the impact of multilateral trade liberalisation in agriculture, with particular emphasis on developing countries. We use original data, and the model includes some specific features such as a dual labour market. Applied tariffs, including those under preferential regimes and regional agreements, are taken into account at the detailed product level, together with the corresponding bound tariffs on which countries negotiate. The various types of farm support are detailed, and several groups of developing countries are distinguished. Simulations give a contrasted picture of the benefits developing countries would draw from the Doha development round. The results suggest that previous studies have neglected preferential agreements and the binding overhang (in tariffs as well as domestic support), and have treated developing countries with a high level of aggregation and been excessively optimistic about the actual benefits of multilateral trade liberalisation. Regions like sub‐Saharan Africa are more likely to suffer from the erosion of existing preferences. The main gainers of the Doha Round are likely to be developed countries and Cairns Group members.     

Estimating the Poverty Impacts of a Prospective Doha Development Agenda

This paper summarises the findings from a major international research project on the poverty impacts of a potential Doha Development Agenda. It draws on an intensive analysis of the DDA Framework Agreement and associated scenarios. The implications for world markets are established using a global modelling framework, the outputs of which form the basis for a dozen country case studies of the national poverty impacts of the DDA scenarios. Liberalisation targets under the DDA have to be quite ambitious if the round is to have a measurable impact on poverty. We expect the near‐term poverty impacts to be mixed; some countries experience small poverty increases and others more substantial poverty declines. On balance, poverty is reduced under the core DDA scenario, and this reduction is more pronounced in the longer run. Deeper cuts in developing country tariffs are found to make the DDA more poverty friendly. It is also clear that, in order to generate significant poverty reductions in the near term, complementary domestic reforms are required to enable households to take advantage of the new market opportunities. Over the long run, sustained poverty reduction depends on stimulating economic growth, which suggests that trade reforms must go beyond tariffs and subsidies, also addressing barriers to services trade and investment.     

WTO 多哈发展回合关于《TRIPS 协定》的谈判和中国的参与

在 WTO 多哈发展回合有关《TRIPS 协定》的谈判中,就公共健康、地理标识、对传统知识和民俗的保护以及生物多样性公约等问题,各主要谈判方阐述了各自的立场；中国积极参与了全部谈判,并提出了自己的主张。     

WTO香港会议后“多哈发展议程”的进展与前景

2001年底启动的“多哈发展议程”是世界贸易组织(WTO)自1995年成立后举行的首轮多边贸易谈判,也是战后一系列多边贸易谈判中首次试图关注发展中国家利益的谈判,因此受到世人瞩目与期待。2006年是“多哈发展议程”的攻坚阶段,按照WTO香港会议确定的日程,各成员应当在年底结束谈判。已经进行了四年半的“多哈发展议程”谈判目前进展到什么程度?能否在年内如期结束并取得积极与平衡的结果?人们正拭目以待。     

Adjustment Costs and the Sequencing of Trade Liberalisation

A common feature of trade agreements between countries is that the integration of markets proceeds in stages. This paper examines conceptually the role played by adjustment costs in determining the best way to structure an agreement between two countries when there are multiple sectors to be liberalised. Adjustment costs to liberalisation of industries might influence the timing of liberalisation, with the analysis bearing similarity to why tariff reductions tend to be phased in over time. When two industries have no ‘spillover effects’, trade agreements with sequential liberalisation will be less costly to sustain. However, if the liberalisation of one industry influences permanently the flow of benefits from liberalising the other industry, simultaneous liberalisation may be easier to sustain.     

发展中经济部分私有化、环境税及其影响——基于一般均衡分析

在一般均衡框架下,分析了发展中国家的国有工业企业在部分私有化后,政府征收环境税对企业产量、劳动力就业以及社会福利水平的影响.研究发现,当政府能够决定环境税税率和国有控股比例的情况下,部分私有化和环境税将通过资本租金和工资率的变化来影响企业的产出量.工业企业产量的变化会进一步引起城市就业水平的变化,从而对社会福利水平以及农业企业中工人工资水平的变化产生影响.     

未能如期结束的谈判--WTO"多哈发展议程"启动三年评析

2001年11月,在卡塔尔首都多哈举行了世界贸易组织(WTO)第四次部长级会议,与会的142个成员部长一致通过了《多哈部长宣言》,决定启动新一轮多边贸易谈判。这是继乌拉圭回合结     

A Development‐friendly Prioritisation of Doha Round Proposals

Agriculture looms large on the WTO's agenda. It was the first substantive item listed in the work programme of the Ministerial Declaration launching the Doha Round, and it was arguably at the centre of the failure at Cancun. Developing countries made it clear both before and during the Cancun meeting that progress on agriculture was their primary objective. Negotiations in other areas have received less attention and progressed more slowly. This paper considers that prioritisation, and suggests that the interests of developing countries in the current round of trade negotiations are much broader than is suggested by the narrow range of agricultural issues that have dominated negotiations. A true development round would require a significant reprioritisation of many areas of the WTO's current agenda.     

Tariff Liberalisation and the Growth of World Trade: A Comparative Historical Analysis of the Multilateral Trading System

The aims of this study are to assess the relationship between tariff barriers and world trade growth from a comparative and historical perspective, and to derive some useful indications for evaluating the effectiveness of the current multilateral trading system for promoting world trade. The novelty of this work is the complex reconstruction of a historical tariffs and trade series for the period 1870–2000, for 23 countries; this constitutes a good proxy for world trade (accounting for over 60 per cent) in this period. The effect of tariff liberalisation on trade growth is analysed empirically using panel data and time series. The results, while confirming the existence of a world level long‐term relationship between tariff reductions and trade growth, demonstrate how this substantial and significant relationship pre‐World War II gradually diminished in importance and significance after 1950. This result does not conflict with the key role of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization system in trade liberalisation; however, it underlines the importance of a formalised multilateral trading system, not so much for tariff liberalisation, but for building a virtuous process of international coordination of trade policies and ensuring fuller participation in world trade.     

贸易摩擦视角下中俄经贸发展障碍解析

近年来,中俄双边贸易进入高速增长期,与此同时,其发展也交织着不和谐的音符.中俄贸易摩擦多起因于转型中的灰色清关,其内因在于中俄贸易基础的不对等,诱因则是中国经济的不断崛起.这些因素在未来的变化趋势说明,中俄经贸发展目标的实现还面临一定的障碍.就此,我们应通过制度、观念、贸易方式、营销手段、预警机制等多方面的努力加以化解.     

Impacts of Trade Liberalisation Commitments on the Vietnamese Economy: A CGE Approach

This article quantifies the economic effects of tariff reduction following Vietnam's WTO accession. It differs from previous studies in several aspects. First, the model incorporates non‐standard features of the Vietnamese economy (e.g. changes in the domestic tax system). Second, the model divides Vietnamese households into 10 groups, allowing for the assessment of household welfare and income distribution. Third, the model has been run employing the most up‐to‐date database available. The major findings are summarised as follows. First, Vietnam as a whole would benefit from trade liberalisation. Second, the overall gain would be accompanied by a redistribution of income and a moderate increase in inequality between the rich and the poor. Third, concerning sectoral output, export‐oriented sectors, sectors with large shares of input in total imports, and those with increased domestic demands are likely to expand, whereas, in contrast, domestic‐oriented sectors are likely to contract. Measures to increase labour mobility, target disadvantaged groups and areas, and further liberalise service sectors are recommended as the recipe for effective utilisation of integration, as well as a more equitable pattern of growth.     

多哈回合早期收获与《贸易便利化协定》

WTO多哈回合谈判历经十余年陷入僵局,但2013年12月在巴厘部长级会议上终于达成了早期收获,其中最大的成果就是《贸易便利化协定》达成了实质性合意。该协定内容丰富,在贸易便利化方面具有突破性的进展。从国际条约法方面看,还处于缔结程序中的该协定是未来WTO《多哈回合谈判最终文件》的一部分,并且也是"一揽子协议"。从国际组织法方面看,该协定的实施将会遵循WTO和WCO的合作模式,WCO将会发挥很大的作用。该协定合意的达成对于中国口岸和海关制度的改革具有很大意义,将会促进中国现代化海关制度的建成。     

我国出口退税政策的贸易与经济效应研究——基于局部均衡模型的分析

通过将出口退税政策变量纳入局部均衡COMPAS模型,从产业层面上分析出口退税政策如何影响进出口行业的产出、贸易、收益等经济指标,并利用中国纺织服装品对美国出口贸易的有关数据,实证模拟中国出口退税政策变化对中美两国纺织业的生产、贸易和收入的影响。结果表明:平均而言,出口退税率每提高1个百分点,中国纺织品出口美国的价格将大约下降0.93%,而中国纺织品对美国出口量将增加2.86%左右,全行业收入大约增加1.83%;而美国纺织行业的产出减少1.9%,全行业收入减少2.2%。