GVC视角下中国制造业贸易竞争力研究--基于总贸易与增加值贸易口径的比较

在全球价值链背景下,中国货物贸易的中间产品贸易存在逆差,而最终产品贸易存在顺差。那么中国货物贸易的贸易竞争力究竟如何?研究结论认为:第一,中国制造业整体具有较强的贸易竞争力,并基本呈现不断攀升趋势;制造业分行业之间的贸易竞争力差别很大。第二,总贸易口径下的贸易竞争力在一定程度上低估了大部分制造业的实际情况。第三,造成总贸易口径衡量的贸易竞争力偏离实际情况的原因与该行业参与全球价值链的程度有关。     

Trade booms, trade busts, and trade costs

What has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past and present? We employ a micro-founded measure of trade frictions consistent with leading trade theories to gauge the importance of bilateral trade costs in determining international trade flows. We construct a new balanced sample of bilateral trade flows for 130 country pairs across the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania for the period from 1870 to 2000 and demonstrate an overriding role for declining trade costs in the pre-World War I trade boom. In contrast, for the post-World War II trade boom we identify changes in output as the dominant force. Finally, the entirety of the interwar trade bust is explained by increases in trade costs.     

Do Trade Agreements Stimulate International Trade Differently? Evidence from 296 Trade Agreements

In a seminal article, Rose (2004) found that the assumed positive impact of the WTO on international trade was questionable. This finding has been scrutinised and modified in subsequent research, using different data sets, econometric methods and separating the WTO from other forms of trade agreements. A key characteristic of the subsequent literature is the rather simplistic way in which trade agreements are treated whereby all trade agreements are lumped together. Trade agreements come, however, in many different forms and shapes. This study addresses these differences in trade agreements. Using a unique database of 296 trade agreements, we distinguish 17 trade‐related policy domains and indicate whether the agreements contain legally enforceable commitments. This extensive and novel taxonomy of trade agreements enables us to allow for the possible heterogeneity of the impact of trade agreements on international trade. Using a gravity model, we find that trade agreement heterogeneity indeed matters for international trade and that countries experience significant trade increases due to comprehensive trade agreements even if not all participants are in the WTO.     

保护贸易理论与贸易摩擦的探讨

随着世界贸易的飞速发展,国与国之间的贸易摩擦也越来越多。这其中之一的原因就是贸易保护主义。分析保护贸易理论在现代贸易摩擦中的具体体现,各国应采取积极措施改善贸易环境,减少贸易摩擦,促进世界贸易的可持续发展,实现共赢贸易.     

Real Exchange Rate Volatility on the Short- and Long-Run Trade Dynamics in Colombia

The short- and long-run implications of real exchange rate volatility on Colombian bilateral trade commodities and non-commodities with its major trade partners are analyzed from the perspectives of the Marshall-Lerner condition, a cointegration relation with other aggregate variables, and the J-curve hypothesis. Long-run equilibrium on the Colombian bilateral balance of trade with a country is more common when the trade volume is denominated in terms of one of the world's main currencies—as is the case of commodity trade and trade with a country whose national currency is one of these currencies. No evidence of the J-curve was found in any of the analyzed Colombian bilateral balances of trade. Opposite to the predictions of the J-curve hypothesis, more common are the scenarios of short-run improvements in the bilateral trade balances following a devaluation than are those with instantaneous declines. Improvements in the terms of trade are found to have a long-run deteriorating impact on the Colombian balance of trade, especially in the case of non-commodity trade. Policy makers should consider that continuous improvements in the Colombian terms of trade, as the ones recently observed, will ultimately be a detriment to the country's current balance of trade surplus.     

国家利益与国际贸易理论的重构——西方贸易理论与马克思贸易理论的比较研究

西方国际贸易理论强调自由贸易给贸易各方及世界整体带来巨大利益,然而各国贸易政策的主流却是贸易保护,理论与现实的巨大反差折射出理论必然存在缺陷。本文认为这源于决定国际贸易政策的国家利益在西方国际贸易理论中的缺位。通过研究西方国际贸易理论和马克思国际贸易理论中对于国家利益的表述,并在分析基于西方国际贸易理论的贸易政策对于国家利益的保障机制的基础上,讨论了国际贸易理论的缺陷及其调整方向,最后以比较利益论为例讨论了重构国际贸易理论的一些原则和方法。     

世贸组织下的新贸易保护主义评析

新贸易保护主义是20世纪末国际贸易领域中出现的重要现象。非关税壁垒代替关税壁垒成为贸易保护的主要手段,这是西方贸易保护主义发展史上的一次重大转变。新贸易保护主义的产生、发展与贸易自由化有着直接或间接的关系,特别是在世贸组织体制下,贸易保护愈演愈烈,新贸易保护主义对自由贸易做了最有趣的修正。     

A Model for Fair Trade Buying Behaviour: The Role of Perceived Quantity and Quality of Information and of Product-specific Attitudes

In a sample of 615 Belgians a model for fair trade buying behaviour was developed. The impact of fair trade knowledge, general attitudes towards fair trade, attitudes towards fair trade products, and the perception of the quality and quantity of fair trade information on the reported amount of money spent on fair trade products were assessed. Fair trade knowledge, overall concern and scepticism towards fair trade, and the perception of the perceived quantity and quality of fair trade information, influence buying behaviour directly and indirectly through product attitudes. Interest in fair trade products, price acceptability and product liking have a significant impact on fair trade buying behaviour. Product interest is the most important variable influencing buying behaviour. Implications for the campaigns of governments and for the marketing strategy of fair trade organisations are offered.     

新新贸易理论及其进展

21世纪初诞生的新新贸易理论突破了新古典贸易理论和新贸易理论以产业为对象的研究范畴,将分析变量进一步细化到企业,以异质企业的贸易投资作为研究重点.企业异质性有两种形式,由于产业内部不同企业生产率的差异而产生的异质性以及企业组织形式差异而产生的异质性,这两种异质性紧密相连.新新贸易理论通过异质企业贸易模型的建立,阐明了现实中只有部分企业选择出口和对外直接投资的原因;通过企业内生边界模型的建立和拓展,将产业组织理论和契约理论的概念融入贸易模型,很好地解释了公司内贸易模式,并在企业全球化生产研究领域进行了理论创新.     

Trade Growth in a Heterogeneous Firm Model: Evidence from South Eastern Europe

In 2007 a free trade area (BFTA) will be created in the Balkans. In this paper we study BFTA‐induced trade growth in the SEE. Given that welfare impacts associated with trade growth depend on the growth channels, more goods and varieties exported or at higher price or more volume of exported goods and varieties, we study the structure of integration‐induced export growth in the Balkans. Given that no firm‐level trade data is available for the Balkans, we adopt the heterogeneous firm framework, which allows to decompose aggregate trade growth into intensive margin of trade and extensive margin of trade using only aggregate trade data. Our empirical findings predict that the BFTA would primarily increase the export volume through a growing number of shipments (the extensive margin of trade) suggesting that the actual welfare gains from the trade growth in the Balkans might in fact be larger than predicted in previous trade studies. We also found that reducing variable trade costs leads to higher export growth rates compared to reducing fixed trade costs by the same percentage.     

服务贸易与商品贸易的互补性及贸易平衡新解

国际分工的演进导致贸易比较优势出现新的变化，贸易模式也更加复杂。在国际贸易新格局下，贸易平衡表现为服务贸易和商品贸易互补下的总体平衡。随着国际分工的日趋深入，贸易失衡也将主要表现为服务贸易和商品贸易之间的结构性失衡。这与两者自由化进程的不对称密切相关。国际分工与贸易的新视野对于理解贸易平衡、解决贸易失衡具有启发意义。     

中国服务贸易发展现状、问题及对策分析

近年来我国服务贸易取得较快发展,运输、旅游等传统服务贸易增长迅速,但对外技术贸易发展还不尽如人意,与此同时仍存在逆差严重、整体竞争力不足,服务贸易内部结构不合理,出口地及目的地分布不均衡等问题。为解决这些问题,企业应加速自主创新及产业结构优化,加快品牌建设及人才培养,提高服务业信息化水平;政府应进一步构建促进服务贸易发展的管理体系,大力培育新兴服务贸易,建立健全服务贸易法律体系,以促进我国服务贸易持续健康发展。     

WTO贸易援助制度构建的必要性研究

贸易援助作为WTO的一项倡议,在其实施4年以来暴露出许多不足之处,且该倡议实施期限具有不确定性。贸易援助可以帮助发展中国家克服各种阻碍贸易的限制性约束,充分发挥贸易对于经济增长和降低贫困的重要作用,必须长期开展贸易援助。WTO作为全球性贸易组织,决定贸易援助只有在WTO体系内才能更为有效、全面、根本的展开。为使贸易援助长期实施并解决目前贸易援助倡议中存在的问题,必须在WTO体系内构建贸易援助制度。     

范围不经济与国际贸易的新基础——对国际产品内贸易起因的解释

本文认为,国际产品内贸易可分为产业间的产品内贸易和产业内的产品内贸易,比较优势理论能解释产业间的产品内贸易,但还没有理论能解释产业内的产品内贸易。文章提出的国际贸易新基础,即由厂商管理约束所导致的范围不经济系数较大而最终产品内的中间产品种类数较多是国际产业内的产品内贸易的基础,比较彻底地解释了产业内的产品内贸易,实现了国际贸易理论的创新。同时文章指出,厂商发挥规模经济效应与实现产品内贸易的决策是被"孪生"地决定的,即理性厂商既不能为了发挥规模经济效应而不合理地减少中间产品种类数,也不能不合理地通过增加中间产品种类数来增加总利润,否则总利润就会减少;交易成本较小是国际产品内分工与贸易的必要条件而非充分条件;第三次科技革命是最终产品国际贸易向中间产品国际贸易发展的直接原因。     

国际贸易与环境协调发展研究

国际贸易与环境保护之间虽然存在着相互影响的关系,但是简单的贸易制裁措施并不能有效地实现环境保护的目的,因为贸易制裁措施并没有从根本上解决环境资源的产权缺乏问题。将环境问题与贸易问题关联来改善越境污染的思路就是利用贸易合作的丰厚利益来维系环境合作的脆弱结构。其局限是改变了原有贸易博弈的支付函数,从而影响贸易合作的稳定性。作为发展中国家,在贸易与环境的关联博弈中更应该立足于眼前利益,立足于贸易合作,并着眼未来,循序渐进地逐步提高环境管制标准,推动贸易与环境的协调发展。     

Climate Change and Trade Opportunity in Climate Smart Goods in Asia: Application of Gravity Model

This article highlights the export potential trade gap in climate smart goods (CSG) in Asia in 2008. Using the trade gravity equation, this article estimates trade value and measures potential trade gap. This potential trade gap suggests that there is a scope to increase the export of CSG. This study identifies individual trade partners and focuses on the trade opportunity in CSG in Asia.     

The rise of vertical specialization trade

Manufacturing and vertical specialization (VS) trade, trade in goods that incorporate imported inputs, have grown rapidly since the 1960s. I argue that declining trade costs are an important explanation for these facts. I present a three stage vertical specialization trade model, with raw materials, manufactured parts and final goods sectors. In the simulated model, falling trade costs explain much of the observed growth in overall and VS trade. Manufacturing trade grows twice as fast as overall trade. Raw materials trade was more important in the 1960s when trade costs were high, since their production is more strongly linked to endowments than manufacturing. Therefore, materials will be traded even when trade costs are high. Trade costs have fallen more for manufactured goods over the last 40 years, leading to a rapid expansion of manufactured parts trade relative to materials.     

服务贸易与美中贸易再平衡分析

在不考虑其它影响美中贸易的因素情形下,本文深入地研究了服务贸易与美中贸易再平衡之间的关系。研究表明服务贸易在平衡美中贸易失衡中扮演着越来越重要的角色,是缓解美中贸易失衡的有效工具。美中服务贸易顺差抵消美中货物贸易逆差的作用在将来较长一段时期内仍会持续下去,而且抵消幅度可能会越来越大,这对美中贸易逆差的缩小将产生巨大的影响,美中贸易失衡格局将难以为继。     

中国与金砖国家贸易利益与分工研究——基于2000-2014年贸易数据的分析

基于总贸易核算法和WIOD数据,本文从增加值贸易视角考察中国与其他金砖国家的贸易利益与全球价值链(GVC)分工地位,并通过垂直专业化结构讨论了贸易利益与分工地位存在的关系。研究表明:2000-2014年中国对金砖国家出口中的贸易利益占比和GVC分工地位均呈现出“V”型的变化趋势,中国主要处于GVC分工的下游环节,在与其他金砖国家贸易中处于相对不利的贸易利益分配地位;中国处于较低GVC分工地位的原因在于通过“加工贸易”模式参与GVC分工,主要以劳动密集型制造业为典型,导致中国的贸易获利能力相对较弱;俄罗斯和巴西的贸易获利能力有所加强,并处于相对较高的分工地位,印度的贸易获利能力和分工地位均有所下降。因此,与金砖国家贸易合作对中国在GVC分工体系下提升贸易获利能力和分工地位产生了积极作用。     

The Tradability of Services within Canada and the European Union

This paper analyses bilateral trade flows between the provinces of Canada and between the member states of the European Union using a gravity model. On average, distance is less a hindrance for services trade than for goods trade. Language and regulation differences hamper intra-EU trade significantly. Services trade, in contrast to goods trade, is also hampered by the level of regulation in the importing country. Services trade within Canada as a share of GDP is twice the intra-EU level, and estimates suggest that intra-EU services trade could more than double if the internal market functioned like the Canadian services market.