Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade Flows in sub-Saharan Africa: Empirical Evidence

In this article, the authors examine the relationship between the volatility in exchange rates and the volume of international trade in sub-Saharan African countries. Using the gravity equation and annual data for the period 1998–2007, they find a statistically significant and negative correlation between the volatility in exchange rates and the volume of trade. The estimated elasticities show that the responsiveness of the flow of international trade to changes in exchange rate volatility is very small. This suggests that eliminating the volatility in the exchange rates will result in only small increments in the volume of trade. Accordingly, pursuing a policy of exchange rate stability would not be sufficient to significantly increase the volume of bilateral trade in the sub-Saharan African region.     

Identifying the Factors that Affect Interest‐Rate Swap Spreads: Some Evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom

We assess the ability of the factors proposed in previous research to account for the stochastic evolution of the term structure of the U.S. and U.K. swap spreads. Using as factor proxies the level, volatility, and slope of the zero‐coupon government yield curve as well as the Treasury‐bill—London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) spread and the corporate bond spread, we identify a procyclical behavior for the short‐maturity U.S. swap spreads and a countercyclical behavior for longer maturity U.S. swap spreads. Liquidity and corporate bond spreads are also significant, but their importance varies with maturity. The liquidity premium is more important for short‐maturity swap spreads, although the corporate bond spread affects long‐maturity swap spreads. For the United Kingdom, swap spreads are countercyclical across maturities. In addition, we find that shocks to the liquidity premium are more significant for long‐maturity swaps and that the links between corporate bond markets and swap markets are much stronger than in the United States. When we look at the links between U.S. and U.K. swap markets, we identify a significant influence of the U.S. factors on the U.K. swap spreads across maturities. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:737–768, 2001     

Real Exchange Rate Changes and the Trade Balance: The Evidence from Pakistan

This study uses quarterly data from July 1980 to June 2006 to explore the relationship between changes in real exchange rate and the trade balance of Pakistan. Applying the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration, we examine the existence of a possible long-run relationship. We find the following: (1) a long-run relationship between the series exists, and (2) the coefficient of elasticity is negative and statistically significant, which does not support for the J-relation.

Given this, the policymakers should take a conservative approach in using currency devaluation to cure the fundamental disequilibrium in the balance of payments. It is likely that such policy may not produce the desired outcome—i.e., the trade balance may not improve.     

人民币实际汇率及波动对进出口贸易的影响——以江苏省与美国进出口贸易为例

本文基于进出口需求方程,通过建立AR-GARCH模型及协整模型来研究影响江苏省与美国进出口贸易的主要因素。研究发现,江苏省和美国两个各自的国内收入(生产总值)、人民币实际有效汇率水平对进出口贸易都有较大的正向显著影响,而人民币汇率波动没有显著影响,在分析这一结果背后原因的同时,提出密切关注美国经济走势,及时指导外贸企业规避风险,树立企业外汇风险意识,增强企业外汇风险管理能力,进一步增强经济实力,优化贸易结构等政策建议。     

S-Curve at the Commodity Level: Evidence from US-India Trade

The short-run response of the trade balance to changes in the terms of trade or the real exchange rate comes under the heading of the “J-Curve” or the “S-Curve.” While the J-Curve is mostly investigated through regression analysis, the S-Curve is based on the cross-correlation function between the terms of trade and the trade balance. Previous research has shown that in a country where support for any of the two curves is weak, disaggregation of the trade data helps discover more evidence of either curve. This article adds to the literature by considering the experience of India. We demonstrate that once the trade data between India and the United States is disaggregated by commodity, there is evidence of the S-curve in most industries that trade between the two countries. Out of total of 27 industries that constitute about 70% of trade, there are 15 that support the S-Curve.     

Third-Country Exchange Rate Volatility and Pakistan-U.S. Trade at Commodity Level

We add to the literature on the “Third-Country” effect by assessing the impact of rupee-dollar volatility on 116 U.S. industries that export to Pakistan and 53 U.S. industries that import from Pakistan. As two measures of “Third-Country” effects, we include volatility measures of rupee-yuan and dollar-yuan rates due to the increased role of China in the global economy. We find evidence of “Third-Country” effects in more than half of the industries. Among affected industries are many of the large U.S. exporting industries, but not large U.S. importing industries.     

欧元汇率波动对中欧贸易的影响

欧元汇率的变动对中欧贸易的影响程度并不显著,在短期内通过直接影响汇率变动本身来起作用;而在长期中其影响则是间接的,该影响仅以汇率变动为前提,通过比较优势的大小形成的。我们在处理现实性问题时,并不应该夸大汇率对外贸的作用,而应从客观上分析我国和欧元区贸易进出口产业的区别。同时,应抓住机遇,拓展对欧元区的进出口贸易;加大欧元在一揽子货币中的权重;扩大贸易范围,优化进出口商品结构。     

后危机时代人民币汇率变动对中美贸易的影响

近年来,中关贸易发展迅速,但人民币汇率问题一直是中关贸易的分歧焦点。从人民币汇率变动对中美贸易影响的角度,分析造成中关贸易不平衡的根源来自美国国内经济的失衡,这种格局是经济全球化条件下国际产业分工的结果,美国对华出口管制也是影响中关贸易平衡的另一个重要因素。从中方角度,为了缓解中关贸易不平衡应大力扩大内需,降低储蓄率,增加国民消费;大力推动高科技贸易;增加进口,减少顺差。美方应深化美国与中国为代表的更多国家的贸易联系;积极参与出口;继续提高经济竞争力;适时调整国内经济政策。     

The Impact of Services Trade Restrictiveness on Trade Flows

This paper uses recent OECD data on services trade restrictions (STRI) to analyse the relationship between services trade policies and cross‐border trade in services. A standard gravity model is enhanced by the STRI indices in a cross‐section regression analysis. Services trade restrictions are negatively associated with both imports and exports of services. The surprisingly strong effect on services exports is probably explained by a negative relationship between the STRIs and sector performance indicators. Consequently, services suppliers from less open countries are less competitive abroad. Bilateral differences in regulation are also found to curtail services trade over and above the impact of the trade liberalisation level. At the margin, regulatory differences have a larger effect on trade flows the lower the level of the STRI.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Intra‐Asia Trade: Evidence by Type of Goods

This paper examines the impact of intra‐Asia exchange rate volatility on intra‐Asia trade in primary goods, intermediate goods, equipment goods and consumption goods from 1980 to 2009. For Asia, the evidence shows that as intraregional exchange rate volatility increases, intraregional exports in these goods fall. This adverse impact is even more pronounced in the subregion of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)+5 comprising ASEAN member countries plus the People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Japan; the Republic of Korea; and Taipei, China; and especially among intermediate and equipment exports. Again, the impact magnifies in an even smaller subgroup excluding the smaller ASEAN economies. These results underline the significant impact of exchange rate volatility on the region's production networks. For South Asia, however, exchange rate volatility appears to have a positive impact on exports. Still, caution is warranted given that South Asian economies trade relatively little with each other.     

Corporate Community Contributions in the United Kingdom and the United States

We address the issue of UK firms relatively poor record of corporate community contributions (CCCs) by subjecting them to formal comparison with those of US firms. To this end, we employ data on the top 100 UK, and top 100 US, contributors in 2001. Cross-country differences are described and discussed with reference to a stakeholder perspective on corporate social responsibility, and CCCs in particular. In this connection, we evaluate the role played by the sectoral composition of activities, as well as national, cultural and institutional factors. Our findings highlight a number of significant cross-country differences in the pattern of CCCs and suggest that UK and US firms operate within significantly different stakeholder environments.JEL Classification: M14Stephen Brammer is a Lecturer in Business Economics at University of Bath, with research interests in the area of corporate social responsibility. Much of his recent research has examined the stimuli for corporate socially responsive behaviour, the management of business social responsibilities, and the relationships between firm social performance and other dimensions of corporate performance. Recent publications include articles in the Journal of Management Studies, the European Management Journal and Business Ethics: A European Review.Stephen Pavelin is a Lecturer in Economics at the University of Reading, with research interests in foreign direct investment and corporate social responsibility. His current research agenda seeks to address: the effect of corporate social performance on the reputations and financial performance of firms; the incidence and quality of social and environmental reporting; demographic diversity (regarding gender and ethnicity) among corporate boards; and the effect of firms geographical diversification on their social performance. Recent publications include articles in the International Journal of Industrial Organisation, the Open Economies Review, the European Management Journal and Business Ethics: A European Review.     

人民币汇率变动与中国的贸易收支——基于汇率传递视角的实证研究

文章从汇率传递视角探讨了人民币名义有效汇率与贸易收支的关系。结论表明:首先,人民币汇率贬值和升值对贸易收支的影响存在非对称性,人民币升值对初级产品贸易收支、工业制成品贸易收支以及贸易总收支几乎没有影响;人民币贬值对工业制成品贸易收支和贸易总收支均存在显著性的影响,但对初级产品贸易收支没有影响。其次,人民币汇率变动对初级产品的净出口基本没有影响,其主要原因在于中国对金属矿砂、煤、焦炭、石油等主要初级产品的刚性需求以及中国在国际市场上对稀缺资源性产品定价权的缺失与不足。再次,人民币贬值不仅不能增加工业制成品净出口,反而恶化了工业制成品的贸易收支,究其原因,在于占较大比重的机械及运输设备类产品的进出口需求弹性较小。最后,本文在以上结论研究基础之上得到了许多有益启示。     

人民币汇率与中美贸易收支结构研究

在国际金融危机的压力下,一些国家的贸易保护主义开始抬头,中国的对外贸易又成为众人关注的焦点。美国是中国的主要贸易伙伴国,中美贸易关系的发展不仅对各自的经济有极其重要的作用,而且对世界经济发展越来越具有影响力。关于人民币汇率与中美贸易失衡问题的研究表明,改善中美贸易收支的关键在于中国经济的持续增长。     

Exchange Rate Exposure and its Determinants: Evidence from Indian Firms

This article examines the determinants of the exchange rate exposure by comparing both manufacturing and service sector firms in India over the period of 2000 to 2013. First, the study finds that service sector firms are more exposed to exchange rate changes than manufacturing firms in India. Second, the results indicate that the market-to-book ratio and export are significant and positively related; however, size is negatively related to the exchange rate exposure of both the manufacturing and service sector firms. These results are robust with the estimation using a trade-weighted exchange rate.     

贸易收支与汇率变动相关性分析

从弹性论、购买力平价理论和不完全汇率传递理论角度出发进行分析,贸易收支与汇率之间关系密切,相互作用明显。在国际贸易的实际运行中,贸易收支和汇率变动又各自受诸多因素的影响和制约。得出结论:在不同时期贸易收支对汇率的影响不同。汇率波动对贸易收支的影响则需要满足进口商品需求弹性与出口商品需求弹性之和大于1,此时汇率变动才会对贸易收支起到明显的调节作用,否则无效。在复杂的国际环境下,贸易收支与汇率之间的敏感度并不强。     

汇率与中美贸易不平衡关系的研究——基于垂直专业化的视角

自汇改以来,人民币对美元累计升值超过20%,而中国对美国的贸易顺差仍然大幅上升。人民币升值为什么没有导致中美贸易不平衡的减少?本文在垂直专业分工的背景下检验了汇率与贸易的关系。结果发现,垂直专业化程度高的行业,汇率的变化对于贸易没有影响,而对于垂直专业化程度低的行业,人民币的升值对于出口和贸易顺差产生了显著的负面影响。中国对美国出口的整体垂直专业化程度非常高,由此决定了人民币升值没有导致中美贸易不平衡的减少。     

中国外贸条件和实际汇率关系的实证分析

根据相关统计数据的研究,中国贸易条件变化与中美通货膨胀率间存在如下关系:中国贸易条件改善之时,正是中国通货膨胀高于美国之期;而中国贸易条件恶化之时,亦是中国通货膨胀低于美国之期。而购买力平价说又将两国汇率变动情况与两国间通货膨胀率相联接,由此,笔者拟以通货膨胀率为中介,对中国外贸条件和实际汇率变动关系加以实证分析,并对当前人民币汇率走势和解决中国外贸条件恶化的方式提出稍许评述。     

Exporting and productivity in business services: Evidence from the United States

Does exporting make firms more productive, or do more productive firms choose to become exporters? This paper considers the link between exporting and productivity for a sample of firms in US business services. We find that larger, more productive firms are more likely to become exporters, but that these factors do not necessarily influence the extent of exporting. This conforms with previous literature that there is a self-selection effect into exporting. We then test for the effect of exporting on productivity levels after allowing for this selection effect. We model both the relationship between exporting and productivity, and a simultaneous relationship between export intensity and productivity after allowing for selection bias. In both cases we find an association, indicating that productivity is positively linked both to exporting and to increased exposure to international markets.