Can Japan or China replace the US as the monetary anchor for Hong Kong and Macau?

This contribution attempts to examine the relative importance of the US, Japan and China to Hong Kong and Macau, two effective dollar-based currency boards today, by evaluating the economic potentiality of Japan or China as an alternative monetary anchor country against the US. The assessment is made according to the criteria prescribed by the optimum currency areas (OCA) theory. In addition to that, a subsidiary analysis is done to evaluate in general the suitability of their fixed exchange rate regimes, regardless of the anchor country. Amidst the existing dollar linked arrangement and the rising dominance of China, significant evidence suggests that Japan, despite its lacklustre domestic conditions, might be at least as good a monetary anchor as the US for Hong Kong. In the meantime, China seems to be a more promising monetary anchor alternative for Macau. The features of Hong Kong and Macau also appear to broadly and endogenously support their fixed exchange rates, but not all the features of Macau, a HK-dollar-based currency board, are consistently symmetrical with those of Hong Kong.     

中国旅游经济的区域发展特征及影响因素实证研究

文章主要用收敛法、Theil指数法、旅游资源地理集中指数法等考察了2000-2008年中国旅游经济的区域差异与收敛,结果显示：31个省（区、市）的旅游经济存在收敛,其差异趋于缩小;东、中、西3大地区旅游经济均不存在俱乐部收敛;城镇居民人均可支配收入水平和星级酒店水平在促进旅游经济增长方面不存在旅游发达省（区、市）与落后省（区、市）的差别,均具有增长效应。而人均旅游业固定资产投资在促进旅游经济增长方面存在旅游发达省（区、市）与落后省（区、市）的差别,具有收敛效应,其条件收敛速度为5.96%,收敛时间为11.6年。验证了中国将发展旅游业作为缩小区域发展差距手段的有效性。基于分析,提出落后地区旅游经济加快发展的建议措施。     

中国境内最早刊登“船期广告”的中文报纸

关于中国境内最早刊出“船期广告”的是哪一份中文报纸,国内学者一般认为是1858年在香港创刊的中文商业报纸《香港船头货价纸》,而本文通过实证,认为中国最早刊登“船期广告”的应是1854年在澳门刊出粤港澳三地船期广告的中文报纸——《澳门宪报》。     

中国-东盟相互贸易依存度与建立东亚货币区的路径选择

本文在最优货币区理论的框架下,通过对中国与东盟人均GDP最高的6个成员国之间相互贸易依存度的回归分析和趋势预测,对比欧元区的历史经验得出,在目前和今后一段时期内尚不具备建立整个东亚货币区的条件下,东亚货币区的建设值得考虑的路径应该是:第一,首先推动中国的内地、香港、澳门和台湾四大经济体的经济与货币一体化;第二,在中国—东盟自由贸易区的基础上推动中国和东盟人均GDP最高的6个国家组成“1+6”货币区;第三,“1+6”货币区再分阶段吸引韩国、日本和其他4个东盟成员国加入,从而最终促成东亚货币区的形成。     

Speed Intensity and the Rise of the Chinese Economies

Producers of speed‐intensive goods, e.g. clothing or electronics, face markets that are in constant flux due to changing fashion or technology. Throughout the twentieth century, Chinese business networks have had a comparative advantage in producing speed‐intensive goods due to their quick reaction time. This comparative advantage was of relatively little value prior to the Second World War, but since the war, international telephone and air services have made international trade in speed‐intensive goods practical. This has caused the demand for speed‐intensive goods on the international market to grow at an extremely rapid pace. This growth in demand can explain the post‐Second World War economic booms experienced by Hong Kong, Taiwan and finally China.     

Macau, The Epic City

The Macau Special Administrative Region, commonly known as Macau or Macao, is one of the two special administrative regions of the People＇s Republic of China, the other being Hong Kong. Macau lies on the western side of the Pearl River Delta, bordering Guangdong province in the north and facing the South China Sea in the east and south.     

Ownership Reform,Foreign Competition and Efficiency of Chinese Commercial Banks: A Non‐parametric Approach

Since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, the pressure for bank reforms has mounted as China ought to have fully opened up its financial market to foreign competition by 2006. Efficiency is key for domestic banks to survive in a liberalised environment, but it appears that the last hope for raising bank efficiency is through ownership reform. Whether ownership reform and foreign competition can solve China's banking problem remains to be tested. This paper aims to answer this question using a non‐parametric approach to analyse the efficiency changes of 15 large commercial banks during 1998–2005. We find that ownership reform and foreign competition have forced Chinese commercial banks to improve performance, as their total factor productivity rose by 5.6 per cent per annum. This coincides with the recent bullish Chinese stock markets led by three listed state‐owned commercial banks. Despite such encouraging results, we remain cautious about the future of Chinese banks, as the good results may have been artificially created with massive government support and the fundamentals of the banks may be still weak.     

中国内地和中国香港的贸易自由化效应研究——基于全球贸易分析模型GTAP的分析

基于全球贸易分析模型GTAP模型和CEPA免税清单"原产地"标准,分析了中国内地和中国香港实施"港产品零关税"和"全面贸易自由化"产生的经济、贸易和产业效应,以及海峡两岸ECFA早期收获和全面实施的影响。研究发现:由于中国内地关税大幅度减免,"港产品零关税"使中国香港进出口增加幅度大于中国内地,中国内地服务业和符合原产地标准的中国香港制造业生产出口增加。如果两地进一步实现"全面贸易自由化",则进出口值、经济增长和福利水平将大幅度提高,并促进两地产业结构调整和升级,但中国内地进口增加幅度大于出口导致贸易余额减少。此外,ECFA早期收获使中国台湾贸易余额增加,而ECFA全面实施将使中国香港作为海峡两岸经贸中转港的地位受到影响。     

Hong Kong after 1997: The question of sovereignty

Ever since British-Chinese negotiations over the return of Hong Kong began in 1982, there has been a dialogue of the deaf about Hong Kong's future, Overholt provides a thorough overview of the historical, political economic, social and legal issues regarding Hong Kong's transition and of China's self-interest in Hong Kong's major functions as an airlock, entrepot, financial center, regional headquarters and manufacturer. Through his careful discussion of the foreseeable problems, Overholt reaches the conclusion that hong Kong is “useful pretty much the way it is” to China and doesn't see China disturbing the balance.     

ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AMONG THE ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION COUNTRIES: Linder Effect on Developed and Developing Countries (1985–1999)

This study tests the income similarity effect developed by Linder on the developed and developing APEC countries. A modified gravity model is estimated for fourteen APEC countries based on trade data from 1985 to 1999. The result confirms early prediction that the income similarity effect is stronger for developed APEC countries. The developed APEC countries with similar per capita incomes tend to trade more with each other during the study period. In addition, the level of trade between the APEC countries can be predicted by their economic characteristics. The result reveals that trade between the APEC countries would increase as their economies become more developed.     

The impact of China's WTO accession on Hong Kong textiles,clothing and its supporting industries

China's accession to the WTO and the ‘Agreement on Textiles and Clothing’ (ATC) which gradually ban the use of quota, will have profound impacts on the textile industry in China. This article attempts to examine such impacts on all textile firms of Hong Kong origin. It briefly examines the impact of WTO on the textile industries in general, the participation of Hong Kong based firms in China's textiles industry, and the competitors from foreign countries. It examines in detail the practice of obtaining Hong Kong quota for textile products that are made in the Mainland by Hong Kong firms. The article argues that there are positive and negative effects of China–s WTO accession for all textile firms of Hong Kong origin. It concludes that the shifting of the targeted market to high-end, high-value-added is the only way of survival for the textile firms of Hong Kong.     

我国四大自贸区的共性分析、战略定位和政策建议

我国设立的自贸区本质上是以更大的开放促进更深入的改革。上海、广东、天津和福建四大自贸区在战略定位上各有侧重。上海自贸区重在金融创新和科技创新以及推动长三角乃至长江经济带协同发展;广东自贸区以制度创新为核心,促进内地与港澳经济深度融合;天津自贸区承担着贯彻落实京津冀协同发展国家战略的重任;福建自贸区以“对台湾开放”和“全面合作”为方向,进一步深化两岸经济合作。对于自贸区的未来发展,我们建议在国家层面成立强有力的协调机构,尽快制定《中国自由贸易区促进法》,与“一带一路”战略紧密对接,进一步推动行政管理体制改革,深化金融体制改革。     

内地与香港CEPA经济效应的实证分析

本文从实证分析的角度出发,运用区内贸易比重、巴拉萨模型、区内贸易流量、格鲁伯-劳艾德指标等工具,对祖国内地与香港CEPA的经济效应进行系统研究。CEPA的实施对香港、祖国内地的贸易影响不尽相同,就建立区域经济一体化的成本而言,香港比内地要低。     

开放经济条件下中国收入分配状况分析——对中国入世1O周年的总结与反思

本文研究了改革开放30年尤其是入世10年来中国参与经济全球化及其对收入差距的影响情况。结果发现,贸易全球化短期内会加剧中国的收入差距,我们将其原因归结为“人口红利陷阱”,但在长期内贸易参与贸易全球化将有助于缩小中国的收入差距;生产与投资的全球化也会扩大收入差距,而金融发展与深化对中国收入分配差距的影响最大;技术进步、受教育程度提高以及劳动力由低阶部门向高阶部门的转移则在一定程度上可以缓解收入差距过大。虽然文章发现中国参与全球化加剧了收入分配差距,但同时认为本质是由于中国开放程度依然不高、市场化程度依然较低导致,建议中国需要进一步推进改革开放,加快融入全球化的步伐,同时加快服务业的发展,加大科研投入力度、提高高等教育普及程度,从而缩小收入差距。     

中国工业劳动生产率的收敛性及差异——基于不同所有制企业的分析

在中国市场化转型的背景下,企业所有权性质的变化在提高工业生产效率和促进经济增长方面发挥了重要作用。使用2001-2016年中国工业不同所有制类型的分省份-行业数据,考察不同企业所有制类型的工业经济变动特征,并实证分析劳动生产率收敛趋势,比较和分析其收敛差异。研究发现,中国不同所有制类型的工业劳动生产率均存在绝对收敛和条件收敛,非国有经济的收敛驱动了整体经济的收敛。国有企业由于市场竞争不充分、缺乏创新激励等,劳动生产率的收敛速度要慢于非国有产权企业的。而私营企业能更好的与本土实际相结合,充分匹配适宜的技术,收敛速度要优于外商和港澳台企业。为实现经济发展均衡,政府需继续优化国有经济布局,重视私营企业的发展优势,提高市场资源配置效率,优化创新环境。     

Risky business: Financial‐sector liberalization and China

China's dramatic growth in exports, its rising conflict with its trade partners over the perceived undervaluation of the renminbi, and the snail's pace of financial liberalization is pushing its bilateral trade and monetary relations to a boil. Discontent in the United States, Japan, Southeast Asia, and, most recently, Brazil, has led popular pundits and even country finance ministers to speak publicly of a “currency war” with many calling for the de‐pegging of the renminbi to the dollar and an immediate appreciation of China's currency. However, China's history of liberalization, beginning with the opening to the West in 1978, is well known as one of gradualism in trade and the financial spheres. Economic history is replete with economic crises brought on by too rapid or premature liberalization of countries' capital flows. This article presents the case both for and against capital account liberalization and highlights the risks that China in particular confronts in responding to external demands for greater openness and an appreciation of the renminbi. It clearly captures the tightrope that China must walk between responding to the demands of its trade partners and maintaining economic growth and political stability at home. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

中国省域碳排放异质性趋同及其决定因素研究——基于变参数面板数据计量经济模型的实证

文章利用增长趋同分析原理,构建了碳排放异质性趋同模型,并基于中国省域面板数据,测算了省域碳排放量,采用变参数面板数据模型对各省域碳排放的趋同性及决定因素进行了实证分析,克服了常参数计量经济研究的不足。结果表明：省域碳排放不存在绝对趋同,但存在明显的异质性条件趋同;不同水平的人均地区生产总值是决定碳排放趋同的重要因素,而人口规模、产业结构对碳排放趋同的影响因各地区而有差异性。中国整体碳减排政策的制定,必须充分考虑各个省域碳排放趋同的异质性特征,省域碳减排的政策和措施也须充分考虑其经济发展水平、产业结构和人口等决定因素的差异性;基于长期有效的政策考虑,继续执行控制人口规模的计划生育政策对各省域的碳排放控制将发挥不可忽视的作用。     

中国内地与香港贸易关系的实证分析

长期以来,香港是中国重要的贸易顺差来源地和重要的转口贸易地,同时,香港对外贸易的发展也离不开内地的支持.两地贸易的相互依存度正在不断上升.香港进口与出口之间具有互动的因果关系.香港的进口带动出口的发展,香港出口的增加,促进了产品价值的实现,可以进口更多更好的产品或投入品,形成良性循环.中国内地进出口的发展处于不平衡状态,特别在改革开放初期,重视出口、忽视进口的现象比较严重,进出口互动发展格局尚未形成.因此,不断调整中国内地进出口产品数量、优化贸易结构,对于中国内地对外贸易的发展具有重要意义.     

国民财富视角下我国区域经济发展均衡性初探

区域经济协调与发展成果共享，是经济高质量发展的题中要义。众多文献对我国区域经济发展均衡性进行了实证检验，但对区域差异敛散特征及其变化速度的认识存在分歧。据人均GDP流量指标检验收敛性的传统方法，难以揭示资本积累与跨区流动的长期影响，需要由国民财富存量视角给出重要扩展与补充。研究发现:落后省区人均财富增速更快(存在β收敛)，但无力遏止省际绝对差异持续拉大(不存在σ收敛)；物质资本投资因高度市场化可迅速调整，人力资本流动对收益率差异有充分反映，推动Y/K与Y/H实现区域均衡(兼具β与σ收敛)。为提升我国区域经济发展均衡性，应注重对国民财富各类资本的“投资组合管理”，加快建成统一开放的要素市场以改善配置效率。     

欧洲经济一体化、区域差距与经济趋同

区域经济一体化有利于缩小区域内各国的经济差距吗?本文对1994-2005年间波兰、匈牙利、捷克、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亚、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、马耳他、塞浦路斯与欧盟15国的经济一体化进程进行了趋同分析,结果发现该25国存在σ-趋同和条件β-趋同。并认为制度趋同是经济趋同的基础,落后国家人均物资资本和人均技术资本的增加以及来自欧盟发达地区的技术扩散是促进该25国趋同的重要因素。