The NAFTA Preference and US‐Mexico Trade: Aggregate‐Level Analysis

This paper focuses on the US tariff preference afforded to Mexico relative to non‐NAFTA trading partners and evaluates the trade effects of NAFTA in a manner consistent with the idea behind a preferential trading agreement. The estimation technique exploits the time‐varying dimension of the tariff preference over 1989 to 2001. This is important because the tariff preference for Mexico into the United States market existed prior to NAFTA. Further, the NAFTA preference was phased in over time. We find that a higher US tariff preference for Mexico corresponds to increased US import demand for Mexican goods, and that a higher Mexican tariff preference for the United States corresponds to increased Mexican demand for US exports. Interestingly, import demand was more responsive to changes in the tariff preference once NAFTA was in place than it was on average.     

Trade and Wages: Two Puzzles from Mexico

Mexico plays an important role in the developing‐country trade‐liberalisation literature because it liberalised early and extensively. Numerous papers analysed changes in Mexican wage levels and inequality after Mexico joined the GATT in 1986. This paper reviews recent papers that analyse changes in wage levels and inequality since the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994. Two main puzzles emerge. First, wage growth rates are similar before and after NAFTA. Second, Mexican wage inequality, which received much attention after its post‐GATT rise, falls steadily after NAFTA. This paper reviews several possible explanations for these two phenomena.     

North–South trade liberalization and returns to skill in the south: The case of Mexico

This study examines the effect of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), an instance of North–South trade liberalization, on returns to skill in Mexico. Mexico is abundant in low-skill workers relative to the US and Canada, and so, by the Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson trade model, NAFTA ought to have raised the relative earnings of low-skill workers, that is, lowered returns to skill in Mexico. Analysis of Mexican labour micro-data yields the finding that while returns to skill in industries producing tradeables have risen, ceteris paribus, since Mexico embarked upon trade liberalization by joining the GATT in 1986, this rise was less pronounced by 1999 in industries liberalized relatively rapidly by NAFTA, launched in 1994, than in industries liberalized relatively slowly by this phased trade treaty. This is considered evidence of NAFTA holding back rise in returns to skill, since it is plausible such a dampening would have been more marked in industries more rapidly exposed to trade with Mexico's skill abundant northern neighbours. Hence, this study suggests trade with developed nations may lower returns to skill in developing nations.     

Technology transfer in Mexico: Past patterns and new problems related to the North American free trade agreement

As the Mexican economy prepares to transition from a relatively closed and protected market to a regionally integrated free market which is part of the proposed North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), a change in its technology licensing environment will be needed to enable Mexican companies to compete for technology with firms from the other member countries of the NAFTA. This study identifies the national sources which have provided Mexico with technology and the Mexican industrial sectors which have been able to attract this technology in the 1980s. It further evaluates the current licensing environments in Canada, Mexico, and the U.S.A. as well as in the Latin American Integration Association (LAIA). The study provides recommendations for changes to the Mexican licensing environment and proposes strategies for attracting technology to Mexican industry under the changed conditions which would be introduced by the NAFTA. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Estimating the effect of the Internet on international trade

In this article, we study the effect of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the responsiveness of Mexican economy to real exchange rate shocks. We argue that, by opening the US and Canadian markets to Mexican goods, NAFTA made it easier for domestic producers to take advantage of the opportunities brought by the depreciation of the real exchange rate. To identify this mechanism, we use plant-level data and compare the behavior of employment, production and investment after two big real exchange rate shocks: the first observed in the mid-1980s, the second the Tequila Crisis of 1994–1995. The evidence indicates that after passage of NAFTA exporting firms exhibited higher growth rates of employment, sales and investment vis-à-vis non-exporters. We confirm our results by analyzing the behavior of a control group of firms, that had complete access to the US market during both devaluations, and we show that they responded in a similar way in both events. Finally, we also provide direct evidence on the relationship between exports and tariff reductions brought by NAFTA. Our results support the view that NAFTA has allowed Mexican producers to respond more quickly to real exchange shocks.     

US immigration policies and dynamics of cross‐border workforce in agriculture

Given the contentious debate on immigration, this study develops a dynamic model to analyse the effects of stricter border and domestic enforcement and streamlining the guest‐worker programme on cross‐border migration from Mexico, employment and production in US labour‐intensive and Mexican agriculture and the US and Mexican wage rates. The model incorporates labour‐leisure decisions of Mexican workers and labour market dynamics and linkages. The findings show stricter border and domestic controls exacerbate the labour‐shortage problems and reduce the US agricultural production. Streamlining the guest‐worker programme provides a steady supply of farm workers and has negligible impact on the US wage.     

Analyzing the Market for Imported Cheese in Mexico

Rapid growth of U.S. dairy exports to Mexico began even before the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and has been fueled by rapid population increases coupled with an expanding Mexican economy. This study uses a nonlinear approximate almost ideal demand system (NLAIDS) to estimate own and cross-price elasticities in the Mexican cheese import market to better understand market behavior and to assess the comparative position of the UnitedStates relative to other cheese market participants. Results of this study imply that attributes of cheese play a strong role in the composition of Mexican cheese import market.     

The impact of the yuan‐dollar exchange rate on Mexican manufacturing exports to the US: A cointegration approach

This paper makes use of three econometric methods and three time intervals to evaluate the long‐term effects of several key variables on Mexican manufacturing exports to the US . The evidence across econometric techniques and sample periods systematically indicates that: (i) a real depreciation of the yuan‐dollar exchange rate reduces Mexican manufacturing exports by lowering the price of Chinese goods in the US market; (ii) a depreciation of the peso‐dollar real exchange rate generates a strong supply‐side effect due to the high import content of Mexican manufacturing exports, which ultimately leads to lower (rather than higher) sales in the US ; and (iii) external demand and labour productivity are positively related to manufacturing exports, whereas real wages are negatively related. Therefore, a falling external demand for Mexican manufacturing products or a real depreciation of the Chinese currency could, to some extent, be offset by increasing labour productivity faster than wages. These findings reflect two fundamental problems of the Mexican economy: (i) low investment in high‐quality formal instruction and proper training programs, which gives rise to severe bottleneck points for faster labour productivity growth and (ii) excessive reliance of the export‐oriented manufacturing industry on foreign suppliers of intermediate inputs.     

Mexico

Not understanding the cultural aspects of doing business overseas can jeopardize the success of international negotiations, entry strategies, joint ventures, technology transfer, marketing, and human resources. This article reports a study of the perceptions of U.S. and Mexican executives concerning the importance of 15 cultural dimensions of doing business in Mexico (our second largest trading partner). It found that, whereas Mexican executives believed more strongly than U.S. executives that the cultural dimensions of doing business in Mexico were more important than the product or service offered and the accompanying terms of sale, the U.S. executives, surprisingly, assigned higher levels of importance to the 15 cultural variables. Both Mexican and U.S. executives strongly agreed on which of the 15 variables were most important. All eight subgroups of U.S. executives assigned higher levels of importance to the 15 cultural aspects of doing business in Mexico than did their Mexican counterparts. When four comparisons of the executives of the eight subsets of U.S. companies‐large vs. small, border location vs. nonborder location, doing business in Mexico vs. not doing business there, and doing business there more than 5 years (pre‐NAFTA) vs. doing business there 5 years or less (post‐NAFTA)—were made of the level of importance they attached to the cultural variables, no significant differences were found. Based on the study's findings, implications for doing business in Mexico are indicated. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Putting Canada in the penalty box: Trade and welfare effects of eliminating North American Free Trade Agreement

Three years ago, very few economists would have imagined that one of the newest and fastest growing research areas in international trade is the use of quantitative trade models to estimate the economic welfare losses from dissolutions of major countries' economic integration agreements (EIAs). In 2016, "Brexit" was passed in a UK referendum. Moreover, in 2019, the existence of the entire North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is at risk if the US withdraws—a threat President Trump has made if the proposed US–Mexico–Canada Agreement is not passed by the US Congress. We use state‐of‐the‐art econometric methodology to estimate the partial (average treatment) effects on international trade flows of the six major types of EIAs. Armed with precise estimates of the average treatment effect for a free trade agreement, we examine the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of the elimination of NAFTA (and for robustness US withdrawal only). Although all the member countries' standards of living fall, surprisingly the smallest economy, Mexico, is not the biggest loser; Canada is the biggest loser. Canada's welfare (per capita income) loss of 2.11% is nearly two times that of Mexico's loss of 1.15% and is nearly eight times the US' loss of 0.27%. The simulations will illustrate the important influence of trade costs—international and intranational—in contributing to the gains (or losses) from an EIA's formation (or elimination).     

Nafta,the financial crisis,and multinational management in Mexico

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) joined Mexico, the United States, and Canada in a free trade and investment block. While NAFTA has generated considerable interest, much of the initial enthusiasm for the treaty has faded due to the Mexican financial crisis. To learn more about the effects of NAFTA and the crisis on multinational (MNC) strategy and operations, we conducted interviews at manufacturing firms in Mexico. Even with NAFTA, we found that significant restrictions remain that limit the strategies that MNCs can pursue. Also, only a limited number of MNCs have been seriously hurt by the financial crisis due to the risk management strategies these firms have adopted. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of this study for the effective management of MNC firms in Mexico.     

Steel: A new round of protectionism in American trade

Traditionally the American steel industry is the most protected industrial sector in the USA and internationally it is the largest user of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy proceedings. At the end of 1994 a ruling from the GATT Panel settled the most recent trade dispute in the steel market. A number of the anti-dumping and anti-subsidy proceedings applied for by US integrated steel producers in 1992 remain in effect. The following paper outlines the latest trade dispute in the steel trade, beginning with an overview of the various rounds of protectionism to date, and seeks to analyse the background to and causes of the dispute.     

The strategic response of multinational enterprises to NAFTA

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) incorporates both market liberalizing and market closing measures. For example, the apparel provisions of NAFTA will relieve Mexico of burdensome quotas in the North American market but will impose ultrastrict rules of origin upon the industry. Rugman and Gestrin develop a frame-work that explains paradoxes such as this one by distinguishing between measures that prompt production at the national level versus the regional level. Although their analysis only considers a few significant industries, their framework illuminates the agreement's impact upon virtually any sector of the North American economy.     

The quality of British marketing: A comparison with US and Japanese multinationals in the UK market

This paper presents the findings of an empirical study comparing the marketing strategies and organisations of a matched sample of British companies and their US and Japanese competitors in the UK. Hypotheses about Japanese marketing are tested and provide a framework for the comparative analysis of the marketing effectiveness of the three sets of competitors. The findings highlight significant weaknesses in the marketing effort of British companies, these being exacerbated by excessive focus on short‐run financial gains. The US competitors, equally concerned with short‐term profits, were less committed to the UK market than their Japanese rivals, their market position being in danger of deteriorating further as the Japanese close the technological gap between them. The Japanese were unmistakably aggressive, single‐minded in their pursuit of market share and undeniably more market‐oriented than their US and British counterparts. This research was funded by the ESRC.     

Die NAFTA-Verhandlungen — Wohin steuert die US-Handelspolitik?

Since entering into force, NAFTA has contributed to major changes with regard to trade flows, supply chains and foreign investment among Canada, the US and Mexico. But nearly 30 years after the original negotiations, the need for modernisation is evident. A possible US exit from the agreement could lead to major turbulence in trade and investment relations within NAFTA. This article starts by looking at data showing the huge amount of trade and investment interdependencies. Next, it examines the objections being raised against NAFTA in the US and the reasons for this criticism, followed by an analysis of the goals the US is pursuing, set against the background of its reformulated, much more protectionist trade policy strategy. Finally, scenarios for an outcome are discussed.     

The DNA of the domestic value added (DVA) in exports: Firm‐level analysis of DVA in exports

This paper sheds light on the relationship between domestic value added in exports (DVA) and the different ways firms participate in GVCs by exploiting a detailed firm‐level data set for the whole population of Slovenian exporting firms for the period 2002–14. The paper draws attention to those firm characteristics that allow a greater share of DVA to be captured. Although reliance on industry‐level data from input–output tables is the most common way of doing this in the literature, this paper develops a method for estimating DVA in exports using firm‐level data by adapting the approach taken by Kee and Tang (2016). The paper finds that in terms of DVA, domestic‐owned exporting firms outperform more productive foreign‐owned firms and that firms not affiliated with permanent suppliers from abroad capture higher DVA in exports. Positive outcomes of DVA in exports can be observed, all else being equal, for firms with a larger share of intangible capital per worker and firms with a smaller share of exports based on imports of the same products. The results also show that when exporting more to less demanding markets, like the countries of former Yugoslavia, firms benefit more in terms of greater DVA gains in exports.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Economic Integration Between Mexico and the United States and Its Connection with Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations (1980–2000)

This article provides a new perspective about the links between the Mexican and US economies by studying the behavior of some Macroeconomic variables during the 1980–2000 period. It uses time series techniques to show that the Mexican GDP, its components and even real money balances had a robust long-run relationship with the US economic activity and the bilateral real exchange. The tighter nexuses appear to have begun in the early eighties and not in the nineties, as is often thought. The relationships here found were not modified by the inception of NAFTA or other events.     

The Locational and Functional Behavior of U.S. Autoparts Suppliers

The free trade agreement with Mexico was expected to help U.S. autoparts suppliers move southward to take advantage of low labor cost, but this has not yet happened. We can find explanations for this rather perplexing phenomenon through analyzing the outcome of a postal survey conducted just before the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) went into effect. The responses from the suppliers highlight the apparent hierarchy in the lean produc-tion system and its impact on the location choices of the parts-manufacturing firms. Despite advances in transportation and telecommunication technologies, the need to maintain short distance with respect to customers is still the single most important consideration in their decision-making. Given the reluctance on the part of the vehicle assemblers, a mass migration of suppliers to Mexico seems unlikely, although it is true that they are quite attracted to the low wages offered south of the border.     

Intellectual property rights: Changing levels of protection under GATT NAFTA and the EU

Revisions in the laws protecting intellectual rights have occurred across the board in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the European Union (EU) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Chaudhry and Walsh focus on the eurrent problem of patent piracy in the pharmaceutical industry and the effect these changes have on this sector.