South–South Trade and Skill Premia

Contrary to the predictions of the 2 × 2 × 2 Heckscher–Ohlin model, empirical evidence shows that the skill premium increased in some developing countries and decreased in others after trade liberalisation. This paper attempts to reconcile the empirical evidence with the theoretical predictions by introducing a model where South–South trade can produce the observed patterns of skill premia in the South. In this context, South–South trade expands the import range of the country that reduces the tariff. This increases the demand for and the cost of skilled workers in the other country. This also leads the country that reduces the tariff to expand its export range and reduce its import range. Therefore, the country that reduces the tariff experiences an increase in its export range, which leads to an increase in the skill premium. As the impact on the import range is ambiguous, it is possible that the other country experiences a decline in the skill premium. Thus, trade liberalisation between Southern countries can cause an increase in the skill premium in one and a decrease in the skill premium in another.     

南亚自由贸易区:发展中国家区域经济合作的新亮点

<正> 为期3天的南亚区域合作联盟(南盟)首脑会议在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡召开,会议上南盟七国领导人签署了《南亚自由贸易协定框架条约》,南亚自由贸易区协定将于2006年1月1日生效,此次会议对于南亚区域经贸合作具有划时代意义。南亚自由贸易区协定构想在孟加拉国、不丹、印度、马尔代夫、尼泊尔、巴基斯坦以及斯里兰卡七国建立自由贸易区。这七国拥有世界1/5的人口,市场潜力很大。但由于历史原因和各国重视不够,南盟七国的经贸合作发展缓慢,甚至有时处于停顿状态。世界银行2003年8     

WTO谈判中的发展中大国与发展中国家谈判联盟——兼论中国参与发展中国家谈判联盟的策略

发展中国家谈判联盟在历次GATT/WTO谈判中都发挥着重要作用,已成为决定多边贸易谈判成功与否的重要力量。发展中大国往往成为谈判联盟的领导者,成为联盟公共产品的主要供应者,促使大国如此行动的原因在于大国在追求经济利益的同时,也在一定程度上追求大国威望、领导权等政治利益。印度作为发展中大国在所有参与的谈判联盟中都成为主要的领导者,对印度的研究有助于我们加深对发展中大国与发展中国家谈判联盟关系的理解。从我国的国家利益出发,本文提出了我国参与发展中国家谈判联盟的策略。     

促贸援助:让发展中国家融入价值链

7月8日至10日,拉巴德中心外面挂着巨大的绿色横幅,横幅上用英法西三种文字写着促贸援助(Aid for Trade),世贸组织迎来了2013年下半年的第一件大事——促贸援助第四次全球审议会议。虽     

Trade Liberalisation and Economic Performance: Theory and Evidence for Developing Countries

The last five decades have witnessed a profound evolution of economic policy in developing countries, particularly in the case of trade strategies. Both internal, as well as external, factors have prompted the need for more outward‐oriented (or liberalised) trade policy regimes. The creation of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1947 and the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 1995 have been important driving forces for free trade. Since then, the major quantitative barriers to trade, i.e. tariffs and non‐tariff barriers (quotas, licences and technical specifications, among other restrictions), have substantially been reduced or dismantled. Also, the progress towards more liberalised trade regimes, mainly in developing countries, has been manifested in the trade and development literature. Major studies suggest that the performance of more outward‐oriented economies is superior to that of those countries pursuing more inward‐looking trade practices (Greenaway and Nam, 1988; Dollar, 1992; Sachs and Warner, 1995; and Rodríguez and Rodrik, 2000). Recent developments in the international trade literature focus on the potential dynamic effects of trade liberalisation, i.e. simplification of tariff structures and elimination of non‐tariff barriers, in reducing the incentives to rent seeking and in accelerating the flow of technical knowledge from the world market. Moreover, there have been important advances regarding the study of trade liberalisation and its impact on exports, imports and the balance of payments, largely neglected in the literature, often driven by supply‐side considerations.     

The Trade Policy Jungle: A Survival Guide for Academic Economists

The rules of the trade policy arena differ from those in academia. How can an economic researcher survive, let alone thrive, in what may appear to be a trade policy jungle? The purpose of this paper is not just to offer guidance in this respect but also to think through the factors that determine the supply and demand for timely, relevant, policy‐relevant insights into commercial policy matters. Understanding the latter provides much of the rationale for the former. Advice follows analysis, as it should do. Economic researchers have certain advantages that they can make immediate use of in the jungle and some baggage that they would do well to shed.     

战略性贸易政策:发达国家与发展中国家的博弈

作为新贸易理论的主要内容之一,战略性贸易政策实质上是发达国家为自己的保护主义所寻求的借口和托词。它虽然在产业适用性和国家适用性方面设置了诸多限制,但印度软件业的发展是该政策得以在发展中国家成功实施的良好佐证。我国应该在市场培育、制度建设以及贸易政策与产业政策协调配合等方面进行强化,以利用战略性贸易政策来培育我国具有国际竞争力的产业。     

Trade Logistics in Developing Countries: The Case of the Middle East and North Africa

This paper presents an analysis of obstacles facing exporting firms in developing countries by diagnosing the efficiency of trade logistics in the Middle East and North Africa region (MNA). Using logistics chain analysis for six export commodities, it presents evidence that transport and non‐transport logistics costs for export commodities from the MNA region are quite substantial, ranging from 7–25 per cent of landed product prices. Underlying these costs are key bottlenecks identified as: inefficient trucking and transport services, low export volume leading to long shipping times and the need for costly inventory accumulation, aggressive, obstructive customs authorities and procedures, low and inconsistent product quality, an underdeveloped transport intermediary sector, inefficient cross‐border transit procedures and others. Recommended actions to address developing a national transport policy, overhauling the regulatory regime for the trucking sector, export promotion measures, increasing competition in port and air freight services, reorienting customs authorities towards trade facilitation and developing cross‐border transit procedures similar to the TIR Carnets model.     

Multilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalisation: The Contrasting Fortunes of Developing Countries in the Doha Round

An applied general equilibrium model is used to assess the impact of multilateral trade liberalisation in agriculture, with particular emphasis on developing countries. We use original data, and the model includes some specific features such as a dual labour market. Applied tariffs, including those under preferential regimes and regional agreements, are taken into account at the detailed product level, together with the corresponding bound tariffs on which countries negotiate. The various types of farm support are detailed, and several groups of developing countries are distinguished. Simulations give a contrasted picture of the benefits developing countries would draw from the Doha development round. The results suggest that previous studies have neglected preferential agreements and the binding overhang (in tariffs as well as domestic support), and have treated developing countries with a high level of aggregation and been excessively optimistic about the actual benefits of multilateral trade liberalisation. Regions like sub‐Saharan Africa are more likely to suffer from the erosion of existing preferences. The main gainers of the Doha Round are likely to be developed countries and Cairns Group members.     

国际贸易中劳工标准执行手段对发展中国家福利后果比较

贸易和劳工标准问题近二十年来一直是国际贸易谈判中的热点问题,其对发展中国家出口的影响日益凸显。文章在局部均衡的框架之内侧重分析了发达国家不同的劳工标准执行手段对发展中国家福利的影响,并在此基础上提出了对策建议。     

Towards a New Trade Policy Between the USA and Middle‐East Countries:Estimating Trade Resistance and Export Potential

At the time of the conclusion of free trade areas (FTAs) between the USA and Middle‐East and North African (MENA) countries, there is a lack of literature concerning the measurement of the current US export position with regards to these countries, and the US export potential in this area. From recent developments of gravity models, this paper derives an estimable equation which includes various trade resistance variables, notably border effects, multilateral resistance as well as specific bilateral effects. The model is tested in order to scrutinise the impact of these variables on US exports to MENA countries, as well as the US export potential in this area. To that end, a selection of panel data specifications is proposed, mainly Hausman and Taylor models as well as Arellano and Bond dynamic models. Results unambiguously indicate that as compared to the other OECD countries, the USA suffers from a substantial trade integration deficit with MENA countries. This is reflected by the strongly negative values of the US‐MENA bilateral fixed effects, as well as the high bilateral border effects. In addition, the estimated actual/potential US export ratio to these countries is only 0.76. Therefore, implementing an FTA between the USA and MENA countries may allow the former to progressively improve its export position in this area. This would also help MENA countries diversify their supplying sources.     

Fairness in International Trade Negotiations: Developing Countries in the GATT and WTO

Does fairness matter in the hard bargaining and horse‐trading that is associated with trade negotiations? This paper presents a positivist analysis of the particular concepts of fairness that developing countries have appealed to in their trade negotiations within the auspices of the GATT and WTO, how these notions have evolved, and the impact that they have had on negotiated outcomes. Treating the concept of fairness as my central dependent variable, I argue that the notion of fairness can only be understood in terms of the institutional context it is embedded in, which includes institutional structure as well as the participatory processes that underlie it. I advance three hypotheses on the relationship between institutional context: the fairness discourse, and the influence and manoeuvre that member countries can have in shaping that discourse. Focusing on the role of fairness in the negotiation positions of developing countries, I explain its substance and evolution through learning and adaptation by these countries within the very particular institutions of the GATT and the WTO, and the coalitions they form a part of and interact within.     

发展中国家外贸结构的非均衡机理研究

非均衡是一种经济常态,外贸结构也普遍地表现出非均衡的特征。比较优势的分工原则在促进发展中国家低级要素优势得以发挥的同时也搭建了发展中国家弱性非均衡的外贸结构,而后发优势取向为发展中国家走向强势非均衡的外贸结构提供了一条更为有效的演进路径。未来我国的外贸结构演进要超越比较优势,更加注重发挥后发优势。     

发展中国家高新技术产业贸易竞争力问题研究--兼论新世纪中国对外贸易结构转换及高技术产品贸易的发展

高新技术产业是近年来各国增长最为迅速也是支持力度最大的产业,其贸易竞争力受贸易发展战略、外资规模和结构、人力资本投入和知识积累、国内经济的增长速度和相关产业的支持等因素的影响.本文对发展中国家的高技术产业贸易的整体竞争力进行实证分析,研究在当前科技创新和知识积累迅速增长的背景下,随着发展中国家内部以及发展中国家与发达国家之间贸易规模的急剧增加,发展中国家贸易竞争力在高技术产业领域是否有所改善,随着知识要素的积累和人力资本的投入,其比较优势是否已经提高,通过对比研究以期得到一些有价值的结论.     

中国涉外经贸法律制度发展的战略新思路

入世十年，极大地推动了中国全方位地介入经济全球化，使我国外经外贸以前所未有的发展速度迈向世界前列，创造了对外贸易发展史上的奇迹；入世十年，也为中国涉外经贸法律制度的发展和创新提供了良机，使其在保持国别化的同时，逐步与国际公约和国际惯例趋同，并为其实现全国的法制建设发挥了巨大的推动作用；入世十年，WTO规则在实施过程中也暴露了其弱点，在此基础上建立更加公正合理的国际经济新秩序，是我国涉外经贸法律制度建设面临的一个长期的战略任务。     

中间产品贸易、技术溢出与发展中国家的工资差距:一个理论框架

中间产品贸易的技术溢出是国际贸易影响熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力之间工资差距的一个重要机制。本文构建了一个理论框架,从中间产品贸易及其技术溢出效应的角度解释发展中国家相对工资差距不断扩大的现实。发展中国家从技术前沿的发达国家进口资本和技术密集型的中间产品,一方面可以使发展中国家间接地分享国际先进的R&D资本;另一方面给发展中国家带来了技术学习和模仿的机会。由于资本与技能的互补性和技术学习的技能偏向性,中间产品进口使发展中国家增加了对熟练劳动力的相对需求,从而扩大了熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力之间的工资差距。     

循环经济:实现外贸增长方式转变的战略选择

文章透过循环经济的概念、特征,具体讨论了循环经济中的外贸环境变化,指出西方发达国家以循环经济为指引通过资源有效利用法规、废物资源化利用法规及生产责任延伸法规来实现对我国出口的制约.在现实的选择中,我国必须通过提高认识、更新理念、借鉴国外经验完善本国法规等对策,实现循环经济的发展模式.