中国对外贸易的劳动就业效应:贸易结构视角

文章旨在分析中国对外贸易结构变动在劳动就业以及城乡劳动力转移中产生的作用。文章认为中国对外贸易的发展有利于劳动就业水平的提升;对外贸易结构的改善有利于促进中国农村劳动力向城市转移,优化劳动就业结构;城乡劳动力转移,农村人口比重的降低,不能仅仅依靠农业的发展,而必须以第二、三产业发展为依托,不能单纯依靠经济规模的扩大和投资的增加,而需要通过产业结构调整,促进城乡联动;对外贸易劳动就业效应的可持续发挥需以经济增长和资本积累为基础;社会劳动就业的增长,就业结构的改善有利于促进经济增长和资本积累。     

外商直接投资对经济增长的影响分析

近年来,外商直接投资作为国际化经济的显著特征之一日益发展。它作为外资企业谋求经济利益的主要经济活动之一,与贸易并行的国际经济活动的一部分。以中国、巴基斯坦及日本为例,利用宏观经济数据,用计量经济模型,定量比较分析外商直接投资对经济增长的影响。结果表明:外商直接投资与贸易、人力资本等因素促进中国和巴基斯坦的经济增长,但是促进效果不同。     

The Gravity of China's African Export Promise

Africa's largest trade partner, China, criticised for exchanging resources for manufactures, has promised to increase imports and optimise the structure of trade with Africa. Using a gravity model of China's imports for the years 1995–2009, we explore potential dynamics for this promise, uniquely accounting for market economy recognition and Taiwan recognition. The former is associated with increased imports, while the latter effect is ambiguous and statistically insignificant. Comparison of projected against actual imports across three growth‐path‐aligned economic geography typologies – resource‐rich; landlocked and resource‐poor; coastal and resource‐poor – sets out China's imports trends in an abstract framework of African export potential. We find not only ‘under’ importing across a majority of resource‐poor countries. We also find that current trade policy is the least applicable to these comparatively poor exporters’ trade with China. If the latter are to serve a broader catalytic role in Africa's regional industrial transformation as compared to the role of coastal and resource‐poor countries in regional economic transformation in Asia and Latin America, China–Africa trade and investment policies may need additional thinking.     

Trade openness,foreign direct investment,and finance-growth nexus in the Eurozone countries

The paper investigates causal relationships between trade openness, foreign direct investment, financial development, and economic growth in 19 Eurozone countries over the period 1988–2013. Using a panel vector error-correction model (VECM), the empirical results show that these variables are cointegrated. The study shows that a combination of opening the Eurozone countries for trade and fostering their financial and economic development have elevated inflows of foreign direct investment into the region in the long run. At the same time, increasing inflows of foreign direct investment in the short run have propelled economic growth, which in return has strengthened the role of financial development and international trade to sustain economic growth in the region through feedback effects. The empirical results have important policy implications for countries in the Eurozone, especially those who face challenges as a result of lack of confidence in their financial system and those who face a sovereign debt crisis.     

China,India and the Commodity Boom: Economic and Environmental Implications for Low‐income Countries

The international role of China has risen steadily for two decades – and has become even more important in the current global recession. The growing supply of labour‐intensive manufactured exports from China has been accompanied by a huge expansion in its imports both of raw materials and of skill‐intensive manufactured parts and components. This ‘offshoring’ of intermediates production by a large, labour‐abundant economy has economic and environmental implications for other developing economies. More recently, the rapid expansion of the Indian economy and trade indicates that it too will soon exert similar effects on global markets. We sketch a model showing how the growth of these developing‐country ‘giants’ generates adjustment pressures on other developing economies. We discuss in particular how differences in relative factor endowments of resource‐rich economies can produce quite different outcomes in the context of product fragmentation and expanding commodity trade. We also explore the effects on production, trade, environment and prospects for future growth in resource‐rich economies, particularly in the context of weak institutions and other market failures. We illustrate these different impacts by considering the cases of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand and highlight implications for growth, development and policy.     

福建省FDI、对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究

福建省利用外资和对外贸易位居全国前列,对推动经济增长起到了重要作用。本文根据1981-2006年福建省统计数据,运用协整检验和误差修正模型,对福建省FDI流入、对外贸易与经济增长关系进行实证研究。结果表明,从长期看,福建省FDI、对外贸易与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,FDI、出口和进口明显促进了经济增长。从短期看,FDI、对外贸易与经济增长的长期均衡水平产生了偏离,但偏离误差修正的速度较快。最后,就福建外商直接投资、对外贸易和经济增长协调发展提出了若干政策建议。     

China and Its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilising Influence?1

China is criticised for keeping its dollar exchange rate fairly stable when it has a large trade (saving) surplus. This criticism is misplaced in two ways. First, no predictable link exists between the exchange rate and the trade balance of an international creditor economy. Second, since 1995, the stable yuan/dollar rate has anchored China’s price level and facilitated counter cyclical fiscal policies that have smoothed its high real GDP growth at a remarkable 9 to 11 per cent per year. With its now greater GDP, China displaces Japan as the largest economy in East Asia – but with a much stronger stabilising influence on East Asian neighbours from its higher economic growth and more stable dollar exchange rate. Now, an ever larger China is an essential stabiliser for the world economy – as exemplified by its prompt and effective fiscal response to the global credit crunch of 2008–09. However, cumulating financial distortions – in China and the United States – threaten to undermine China’s growth and its stabilising influence on the rest of the world.     

后危机时期的贸易保护主义及其应对

面对国际金融经济危机后的市场萎缩和经济低迷,新一轮贸易保护主义重新抬头,突出地表现在滥用贸易救济措施、逾越WTO法则、霸权与强权性贸易干预以及国际投资限制等。贸易保护对WTO自由化、经济全球化进程、国际贸易的恢复和世界经济的复苏产生了较为严重的制约作用。因此,在积极反制国外贸易保护的同时,我国应加快推进经济增长着力点转变和过剩产能消化,注重开放型经济的内涵发展和区域合作框架的拓展。     

Supply‐chain Trade: A Portrait of Global Patterns and Several Testable Hypotheses

The trade associated with international production networks – supply‐chain trade for short – is associated with some of the most momentous global economic changes in the last 100 years. It has transformative implications for the world economy. This paper presents a portrait of the global pattern of supply‐chain trade and how it has evolved since 1995.     

Costly investment and complementarities in an international trade model with directed technological change

We investigate the impacts on the skill premium and on economic growth in an innovator‐imitator general equilibrium growth model assuming: (a) directed technological change; (b) international trade of intermediate goods; (c) internal costly investment in both physical capital and R&D; and (d) complementarities between intermediate goods in aggregate production. With trade of intermediate goods, the complementarities degree and investment costs influence the economic growth of both countries, but do not affect the countries' skill premia, which are directed by technological knowledge. Additionally, in agreement with related empirical literature, openness to trade of intermediate goods leads to a higher equilibrium skill premium in both countries, whereas its impact on the common growth rate can vary in sign.     

Speed Intensity and the Rise of the Chinese Economies

Producers of speed‐intensive goods, e.g. clothing or electronics, face markets that are in constant flux due to changing fashion or technology. Throughout the twentieth century, Chinese business networks have had a comparative advantage in producing speed‐intensive goods due to their quick reaction time. This comparative advantage was of relatively little value prior to the Second World War, but since the war, international telephone and air services have made international trade in speed‐intensive goods practical. This has caused the demand for speed‐intensive goods on the international market to grow at an extremely rapid pace. This growth in demand can explain the post‐Second World War economic booms experienced by Hong Kong, Taiwan and finally China.     

Trade Policies in Southeast Asia in the Wider Asian Perspective

This paper takes stock of trade policies in Southeast Asia after the Asian crisis and in the wake of the current global economic crisis. It compares trade policies in individual Southeast Asian countries; places them in the context of regional and global economic integration; and particularly draws implications for the region from the rise of China and India. The first section looks at recent trade and FDI patterns in Southeast Asia. Then follows an overview of key trade‐policy trends, in the region overall and in individual countries. The next sections examine ASEAN countries in international trade negotiations and agreements: first in the WTO, especially in the Doha Round; then within ASEAN; and finally on cross‐regional FTAs. The paper concludes that ASEAN countries cannot rely on external tracks ‘from above’ for meaningful trade policy reform. Since the Asian crisis there has been a slowdown of reform momentum, and too much reliance on trade negotiations – especially FTAs. Rather, countries in the region have to rely on themselves –‘from below’ as it were. The engine of liberalisation and regulatory reform has to be home‐driven – as it was before the Asian crisis – with governments taking unilateral measures in response to internal and external conditions.     

新时期内外贸一体化发展策略研究

内贸和外贸都是一国经济发展的重要动力,二者具有相互支撑、相互促进的作用。长期以来,中国一直实行内贸和外贸两条线管理模式,已经无法满足市场经济和贸易发展的客观要求。在当前全球经济下行贸易摩擦加剧、内外贸都面临着转型、出口消费投资在拉动经济增长中需要进一步协调配合的情况下,必须通过着力打造更加自由便利的国内营商环境、加快构建全国统一大市场大流通体系、大力发展跨境电子商务、扩大服务贸易规模提升发展水平等举措,切实推动中国内外贸一体化发展,为经济增长注入新活力。     

国际贸易与技术进步关系初探

本文主要从国际贸易与技术进步的关系的角度探讨技术进步的决定因素,在柯布—道格拉斯生产函数的基础上,用劳动生产率的增长代表技术进步的变化,同时将外贸依存度和外资依存度作为衡量技术进步的内生变量,采用1985-2004年的年度数据进行计量分析。本文的模型结论如下:(1)资本对经济增长的贡献要远大于劳动力的贡献;(2)国内投资对技术进步的促进作用要大于外商直接投资。因此,要想更快地发展我国经济,一方面要加大资本的投入,另一方面要加强自主创新,尤其是国内技术的自主创新,加强引进技术的消化吸收和利用。     

对我国进口贸易的再认识

改革开放以来,我国在世界贸易中的地位不断上升,其中,进口规模的迅速扩大起到了重要作用,我国现已成为全球贸易中的进口大国。本文运用实证分析的方法,将进口贸易划分为投资品进口和消费品进口两部分,剖析了进口贸易对国内投资和消费的推进作用、及对我国国民经济持续增长的促进作用。     

浙江省对外贸易与经济增长关系的协整分析

近几年来,浙江对外贸易增速全国领先,规模位居全国前列,贸易顺差更是连续多年名列全国第一。浙江对外贸易的快速发展对推动经济增长起到了十分重要的作用。本文根据协整理论,利用浙江省1981-2003年统计数据,对浙江对外贸易和经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。实证结果表明:从长期看,浙江经济增长与出口、进口、消费、投资之间存在着长期稳定的关系,出口、消费和投资明显促进了经济增长,而进口对经济增长影响并不显著。从短期看,出口和进口共同对经济增长起促进作用。本文最后从宏观、中观和微观三个层面提出浙江对外贸易实现可持续发展的对策建议。     

On Income Convergence among China,Hong Kong and Macau

Hong Kong and Macau were reunited with China in the late 1990s as two special administrative regions (SARs). Over the last half century, they were China's good examples of economic development, windows of openness and investors. Owing to historical reasons, China lagged far behind Hong Kong and Macau in terms of per capita incomes. However, rapid economic growth in China over the last three decades must have brought about a significant convergence of the three economies. China's economic success has benefited from the integration of its two SARs and the coastal provinces, especially Guangdong, in terms of technological spillover, massive investment and trade. The economic trickledown, direct investment and trade must have been important drivers of economic integration and income convergence. This paper aims to analyse the trend and studies the determinants of income convergence between China and its two SARs. Both parametric and non‐parametric techniques are employed to quantify the pace of convergence on per capita incomes in Hong Kong, Macau and the Chinese provinces over a period of more than 40 years. We find no evidence of convergence in the pre‐reform period, but strong evidence of both absolute and conditional β‐convergence in the post‐reform period. Over the reform period, the pace of convergence is less than 1 per cent per annum without controlling for trade and more than 2 per cent conditional on trade.     

PHEIC对中国的经济影响及对策

2020年1月31日,世界卫生组织宣布将中国新冠病毒疫情列为国际关注的突发公共卫生事件(PHEIC)。尽管在之前的PHEIC中,世界卫生组织均强调不应限制国际旅行和贸易,但各国仍对目标国采取了一系列限制措施,对其经济造成负面影响。此次PHEIC后,越来越多的国家对我国采取了广泛的限制措施。对中国造成的短期影响是国内经济、国际贸易、双向投资、全球价值链均受到冲击;中期影响是外商撤资、产业链转移的可能性大幅增加;长期影响是面临与全球经济脱钩的风险。对此,我国应借鉴之前目标国采取应对措施的经验教训,尽快结束疫情、缓解对国内经济的冲击、推动国际贸易和双向投资、加快产业链布局调整、加强国际经济合作,以缓解PHEIC的短期冲击并避免中长期影响。     

APEC贸易投资自由化:进程、挑战与展望

亚太经济合作组织(APEC)自成立以来,在推进贸易投资自由化方面取得了显著成效,关税和非关税壁垒大幅削减,服务业总体开放程度提高,投资准入门槛降低,但与亚太地区自由与开放的贸易投资目标仍存在一定差距。当前,APEC面临国际环境、内部机制、议题领域、成员利益以及与区域内其他合作机制关系等方面的挑战。为此,APEC需要进一步完善机制,以亚太自贸区建设作为新动力,打造更加包容普惠的贸易投资自由化,并发挥国际经贸规则制定的试验场作用。作为APEC重要成员之一,中国应积极参与和引领APEC机制的改革,推动构建全面、高质量的亚太自贸区,将"共商、共建、共享"的新理念融入APEC贸易投资自由化进程,并利用APEC平台参与国际经贸规则的制定。     

俄罗斯国家经济安全对中俄经贸合作的影响

20世纪以来,俄罗斯经历了乌克兰危机、西方经济制裁、国际油价下跌等外部因素的冲击,经济安全遭受严重威胁,在此背景下的俄罗斯政治经济战略势必波及中俄经贸合作,进而影响丝绸之路经济带建设。本文从贸易合作和对外直接投资合作方面,基于计量模型剖析俄罗斯国家经济安全对中俄经贸合作的影响过程及关联因素。研究表明俄罗斯国家经济安全危机提升了中国在俄贸易伙伴国中的地位,促使俄与中国产能合作的意愿强烈,直接投资和产能合作逐渐成为推动中俄经贸合作向纵深发展的强劲动力;俄罗斯国家经济安全危机对中俄罗贸易有显著负向影响,中俄政治关系对贸易合作有显著正向影响。这是提高中国对俄罗斯投资、提升高新技术产品在俄罗斯进口比重的机遇期,亦是推进丝绸之路经济带的重要机遇期。经济强势崛起的俄罗斯和经济体系全面崩溃的俄罗斯对丝绸之路经济带的推进均有重要影响,在与其发展战略协作伙伴关系过程中,中国恰到好处地拿捏平衡其中的大国利益边界至关重要。