外资银行审慎监管评析

银行业的全面开放必然要求加强对外资银行的审慎监管.这一审慎监管制度需要充分借鉴巴塞尔协议和WTO金融服务贸易的有关规则,从平时的"常态"监管和特殊情况下的"异态"监管两方面入手.我国对外资银行的审慎监管,在"常态"监管方面较为完备而"异态"监管方面存在缺失.且WTO金融服务贸易协议中的"审慎例外"原则尚未正确地体现在有关法律法规中,我们必须尽快将其正确地转化为国内法.     

澳大利亚审慎监管局对金融集团的监管

澳大利亚审慎监管局对金融集团的监管,是建立在反复征求业界意见和研究监管实践的基础之上。监管目标和监管对象明确,同时融合新巴塞尔协议、金融集团监管论坛关于对金融集团监管的原则,是对后续各种类金融集团进行审慎监管的积极尝试,对于正在探索金融集团监管的国家有很好的借鉴价值。     

金融宏观审慎监管的国际发展及在我国的适用

金融危机使得宏观审慎监管再次成为各国金融监管的重心。该文从分析宏观审慎监管的起源和特点出发,介绍了宏观审慎监管的国际发展状况,指出宏观审慎监管在我国的适用性:在结构上,宏观审慎监管者应包括中央银行和其他金融业监管者,但又应具备一定的独立性;在内容上,宏观审慎监管应关注国内经济政策和金融监管政策的实际效果和相互之间的协调性,并充分注意国际宏观审慎监管的发展趋势;在手段上,多维度的宏观审慎监管工具将提供更为有效的监管分析;在配套设施上,我国应加强金融市场的基础设施建设,并迫切需要完善相关金融交易的会计制度和金融机构的退出机制。     

我国中长期信用银行政府监管问题的探讨

中长期信用银行在应对金融危机,支持城镇化建设方面具有重要作用,但其立法严重滞后,存在监管失灵问题。文章在对中长期信用银行与商业银行进行比较,分析中长期信用银行监管的特殊性后,试图提出改善对其监管与立法的政策建议。     

开放经济下中国外资银行监管——基于外资银行特别监管的国际经验考察

基于借鉴吸收国际金融监管及立法经验,发挥外资银行对我国金融经济发展的积极推动作用,有必要在四个方面调整:改革外资银行的监管体系、加强外资银行的准入限制、提高对外资银行运营中的审慎监管以及完善对外资银行的市场退出监管。     

An Australian Housing Model*

A 13-equation model is developed which captures the essential economic features of the housing industry in Australia. The importance of speculative builders and investors is recognized. Empirical results are presented for two key equations. The asset price of existing dwellings (including land) owned by persons is explained by a portfolio choice or generalized asset adjustment model. This asset price then feeds in as a determinant of new private construction, along with construction costs of new dwellings, financial variables and a measure of demand-supply imbalance.     

Rationalizing Australian Taxation Revisited*

This paper reviews the author's (1971) tax rationalization proposal to examine whether a tax simplification scheme eliminating minor transaction taxes and reducing heavy reliance on personal income tax by introducing a general consumption tax continues to have merit for Australian tax reform. The first part of the paper points to increases in avoidance and evasion as a major change perceivable in Australian taxation between the 1960s and the 1980s and indicates other important changes that have occurred. Section II presents an equity and simplicity case for general indirect consumption taxation supplemented by personal income and wealth taxes. Section III discusses the inter-governmental financial relations implications of the proposed rationalization. The paper concludes that in the light of events in 1983 such rationalization proposals suitably modified continue to have merit.     

Formal Rules versus Informal Relationships: Prudential Banking Supervision at the FSA Before the Crash

Prior to the 2007–9 banking crisis, the UK Financial Services Authority presented itself as a ‘proportionate’ and ‘risk-based’ regulator, preferring firms to adhere to the spirit of high-level principles rather than the letter of detailed rules. Simultaneously, it developed a supervisory regime that was unprecedentedly complex, producing a ‘Handbook’ of intricate secondary legislation that ran to some 8000 pages. Explaining these contradictory aspects of the pre-crisis regime demands a reappraisal of the dominant explanations of the supervisory failures that contributed to the banking crisis. In contrast to accounts that focus on officials' uncritical adherence to efficient market thinking (regulatory groupthink) or the political clout of the financial industry (regulatory capture), this article suggests that supervisory officials' actions can be understood only by reference to their institutional and structural contexts. Amid heightened public sensitivity to risk, officials developed an elaborate and transparent supervisory framework as a defence against potential political censure. At the same time, collegial firm–supervisor relationships were preserved as state-of-the-art risk-management ideas were recombined and repackaged in line with the institutional legacies of earlier ‘club-like’ modes of supervision. Together, these divergent tendencies contributed to overconfidence in the use of predictive risk assessment and neglect of banks' fundamental business risks.     

Australian Macroeconomic Policy Experience*

This paper looks at Australian macroeconomic experience from approximately 1912 to 1985. The whole period is divided into five episodes. The idea in preparing this paper was to try to answer three questions namely: how did Australian experience differ from that of other OECD countries, what policy lessons could be learnt, and finally, what light could be shed on the relevance of various macroeconomic theories notably rational expectations. In fact. the questions have by no means been adequately answered though the paper goes furthest in dealing with the first question. I hope it will encourage further discussion and research¹ Anticipating some of the conclusions, the historical review suggests that Australian experiences have been fairly similar to those of other OECD countries. notably European countries. But the timing has sometimes differed the Australian wages explosions have been (more or less) exceptional and recently Australia has been special in having on incomes policy, It also appears that the theory of rational expectations does not get much support from Australian was behaviour, that policy from 1916 to 1981 was not really monetarist, and that fiscal expansions since 1982 have been made possible by the availability of the international capital market.     

Pricing in Australian Manufacturing*

The rate of change of prices of competing foreign products and the rate of change of costs of domestic production are both found to have positive impact on the rate of domestic price inflation in a cross section of Australian manufacturing industries over the period from 1968-69 to 1986-87. Prices of competing foreign products are found to have more impact, while production costs are found to have less impact, the higher is the level of domestic concentration, supporting the hypothesis that foreign and domestic competition have interactive effects on domestic prices.     

Forecasting Australian Marriage Rates*

The paper discusses the problem of modelling demographic variables for the purpose of forecasting. Two empirical model selection procedures are applied to suggest final form forecasting equations for Australian marriage rates. The suggested models are then assessed by comparing their post-sample forecast performance with that of univariate ARMA-type models of marriage rates which are regarded as approximations to marriage rate final equation models. In this instance the ARM A models are preferred for forecasting purposes. The properties of the ARM A model forecasts are then examined and the modelling strategy is contrasted with the regression method used by Withers.     

On the Coexistence of Banks and Markets*

We examine the coexistence of banks and financial markets by studying a credit market where the qualities of investment projects are not observable and the investment decisions of entrepreneurs are not contractible. Standard banks can alleviate moral‐hazard problems, while financial markets operated by investment banks can alleviate adverse‐selection problems. In competition, standard banks are forced to increase repayments, since financial markets can attract the highest‐quality borrowers. This, in turn, increases the share of shirkers and may make lending unprofitable for standard banks. The coexistence of financial markets and standard banks is socially inefficient. The same inefficiency may occur with the entrance of sophisticated banks, operating with a combination of rating and ongoing monitoring technologies.     

Brookings on the Australian Economy*

This paper offers a review of two central issues of macroeconomic management, nominal wage determination and the relative roles for fiscal expansion and real wage restraint, discussed in the Brookings study of the Australian economy. Consideration is given to the book, The Australian Economy: A View from the North, edited by Richard E. Caves and Lawrence B. Krause, George Allen & Unwin, Sydney 1984, and to the January 1984 conference discussion.