Investing in private higher education in developing countries: recent experiences of the International Finance Corporation

Higher education, which provides mainly 'private goods,' is being opened to private investment in many parts of the world. The paper describes the pioneering efforts of the International Finance Corporation in this field. The IFC has approved investments in nine universities, two specialised training centres and two student loan programmes. It is too early to draw firm conclusions about the case for this form of investment, but the paper deals with some of the issues which have arisen and provides some 'guideposts' for evaluating future investments.     

Evaluating the effectiveness of private education across countries: a comparison of methods

This paper aims at estimating the effect of private vs. public education on pupils' achievement using the 2000 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) survey and taking into account the potential bias due to the existence of unobserved confounding factors. To deal with these selection biases, three methods are implemented in a comparative perspective: (1) instrumental variable (IV) regression; (2) Heckman's two-stage approach and (3) propensity score matching. This exercise underlines important divergences between the results of parametric and non-parametric estimators. All results, however, show that private education does not generate systematic benefits.     

Default risk and private student loans: Implications for higher education policies

In recent years, the proportion of students facing a binding constraint on government student loans has grown. This has led to substantially increased use of private loans as a supplementary source of finance for households׳ higher education investment. A critical aspect of the private market for student loans is that loan terms must reflect students׳ risk of default. College investment will therefore differ from a world in which government student loans, whose terms are not sensitive to credit risk, are expanded to no longer bind. Moreover, beyond simply crowding out private lending, expansions of the government student loan program will feed back into default risk on private loans. The goal of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment of the likely effects of the private market for student loans on college enrollment. We build a model of college investment that reflects uninsured idiosyncratic risk and a well-defined life-cycle that is consistent with observed borrowing and default behavior across family income and college preparedness. We find that higher government borrowing limits increase college investment but lead to more default in the private market for student loans, while tuition subsides increase college investment and reduce default rates in the private market. Consequently, higher limits on government student loans have small negative welfare effects, while tuition subsidies increase aggregate welfare.     

The impact of Universal Service Obligations and International Cross-subsidies on the dispersion of telephone services in developing countries

This paper re-evaluates the telecommunication policies often applied to create regional dispersion of services in developing countries. We observe that failure to consider the complexities of the regional telecommunication systems in creating policies and investment strategies has increased the telecom gap between urban and rural regions worldwide. In particular, the teledensities of rural telecommunications in developing countries have remained very low in spite of support through universal service obligation fees and cross-subsidization from international services. As traditional methods for economic analysis and modeling have failed to identify mechanisms that improve telephone dispersion in these countries, we use a system dynamics modeling approach to deal with complexities of the situation in order to evaluate how Universal Service Obligations (USOs) and International Cross-Subsidy (ICS) policies affect telephone densities. We demonstrate that these policies may be counterproductive due to the structure of the telecom system itself. We also show that, when market-clearing pricing is combined with USOs once the urban telephone density reaches a minimum threshold, the dispersion of rural telecommunications can be considerably improved.     

Slums in developing countries: New evidence for Indonesia

This paper uses Indonesian data to provide new evidence on the links between household and dwelling characteristics in a developing country. The results show that higher income and education lead to occupancy of dwellings with better structural characteristics, an effect that is reinforced if the household is large and contains few children. Religion also matters, with non-Buddhist households occupying dwellings with worse structural characteristics. The directions of these effects are mostly consistent with separate estimates of household bid-rent functions, which show that willingness-to-pay for better housing attributes rises with income and education.     

浅析我国的公司债与企业融资

首只公司债的顺利发行和上市标志着公司债正式走进我国资本市场。公司债的推出,不仅为企业开辟了从资本市场融资的新渠道,而且能起到优化融资结构、扩充投资渠道、完善资本市场结构的作用。因此,公司债的健康快速发展将直接影响中国资本市场的发展。     

Economics of residential crowding in developing countries

In an attempt to eliminate residential crowding, most countries pursue the policy objective of providing one dwelling unit per household. However, we know little about the demand for various dimensions of housing space which affects the levels of crowding. This paper analyzes the nature of demand for residential space and multiple occupancy in order to identify the major determinants of crowding. The result indicates that to a great extent crowding is explained by economic factors and that the current policy approach to elimination of crowding, which emphasizes one dwelling per household, is not likely to be effective.     

The dynamics of indebtedness in developing countries: The case of the Philippines

The relationships between foreign capital inflows, the build-up of debt, and economic growth in a developing country are analyzed using a system dynamics model of the pertinent processes. The Philippines serves as an empirical case to apply the model. The model incorporates the macro-structure of economic growth, the micro-structure of market-clearing mechanisms, and an accounting of the money flows. The study shows that economic policies enhancing debt-servicing ability create better economic performance than those limiting acquisition of loans. Increasing capital-intensity is the most important part of such policies. They are further facilitated by encouraging investment through decreasing taxes and enhancing demand through increasing government spending and promoting exports. Thus, augmentation of domestic resources by foreign capital inflows appears to be a viable economic strategy.     

股权融资依赖与企业投资行为——基于行为公司财务视角

本文基于行为公司财务视角,首先阐释了股票误定价通过股权融资渠道影响企业投资行为的理论机制.然后在度量股权融资依赖程度的基础上,对不同股权融资结果和融资依赖程度下的企业投资行为进行了实证研究.研究结果表明:在再融资政策的作用下,我国证券市场的股票价格通过股权融资渠道对企业投资行为产生了不同程度的影响.对于未取得股权融资的公司而言,股票市价与企业投资水平不相关;对于取得了股权融资的公司而言,股票市价与企业投资水平显著正相关.股权融资的依赖程度越大,企业投资水平对股票市价的敏感性越高.股权融资的依赖程度小,则内部人控制下的企业投资行为倾向于大规模的扩张.     

非公经济发展政策执行的阻滞因素分析及对策

国务院关于《鼓励支持和引导个体私营等非公有制经济发展的若干意见》(以下简称《非公经济发展意见》)的出台,犹如一股强劲的春风,吹暖了民营企业家的心。但民营经济政策从出台到落实还有很长的路要走,很多障碍要克服,《非公经济发展意见》很难在短期内解决多年来积累的问题。一项政策出台,重要的是如何在日趋复杂的环境中有效地执行。政策执行这一被长期忽视的环     

Student loans in developing countries: government versus company loans

Using data from the International Finance Corporation study on private investment in education, Tooley and West give details of two types of international experience with student loans. In particular they look at the government student loan scheme in Thailand and loan schemes offered by various for-profit and nonprofit education companies in Peru, Colombia and India. Difficulties are pointed out with regard to the government scheme, which it may be possible to alleviate under the company schemes.     

Enterprise clusters in developing countries: mechanisms of transition and stagnation

This paper analyses the dynamics of clustered enterprise development in developing countries. It is focused on the different types of clusters that can be identified in these contexts. After a brief introduction, the cluster concept is explained and the need to understand clusters as an expression of social connectivity rather than mere spatial agglomerations is established. Next, a typology of clusters is presented. This typology is discussed on the basis of recent research on small and medium-sized enterprise clusters in different countries and continents. The types of linkages prevailing in different types of clusters are analysed, as well as their implications for technological change. It is argued that the mechanisms of enterprise growth and innovative activity are different in each type of cluster and hence the opportunity structures that entrepreneurs face are variable across cluster types. Therefore, the mechanisms of transition from one type to another are different, and these are discussed next, as well as mechanisms of stagnation and continuity. In conclusion, the implications for development research and policy are outlined and it is emphasized that support must be tailored to the actual state of existing clusters and cannot be deduced from general theory.     

Simulating mining policies in developing countries: The case of Colombia

Mining represents an important economic sector in almost all countries, especially the developing ones. The planning in this area is complex due to the interaction between different aspects like economic factors, environmental and social issues, and government regulation. A tool for policy analysis is needed to understand and test the effects of new and existing policies and avoid unanticipated side effects. The article develops a generic model for analyzing the mining sector of a country and demonstrates how it can be calibrated to test a set of alternative scenarios for the future of mining in Colombia.     

Public action and the quality of life in developing countries

An attempt is made to identify the developing countries that have performed better than others in terms of the indicators of the so called "quality of life," relating this progress to the nature of these economies and to the public policies followed in these countries. A table presents data on life expectation at birth and adult literacy rates for 100 countries that had a gross national product per head of less than $3000 in 1977. The data have some comparability, and it is reasonable to use them for a rough international comparison of performance. 38 countries have shown distinction in 1 or both of the fields. There are 10 communist countries in the total list of 100, and 9 of them show some distinction. 8 of the 9 do this despite not having literacy figures reported. The entry is longevity, which is arguably a more basic indicator of success than poverty. Many of the communist countries are wealthier than the mean or median developing country. Although the indices are relative ones, the richer countries have typically done better, on the whole. The longevity performance of the communist countries is typically superior. This applies to the poorer group also. Some of the high growth early capitalist countries also have very good performance in terms of the chosen indicators (e.g., Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore). Taiwan and Hong Kong have the best overall performance record in terms of the 2 criteria for those 61 countries for which both sets of data are available. The countries that appear to have done relatively worse in terms of the indicators are those in the "middle," i.e., neither communist nor successfully capitalist. There are some exceptions. Tanzania appears to have been relatively successful in terms of the removal of illiteracy, and Sri Lanka has been successful in raising life expectancy. In examining the excellent performance of the Republic of Korea and Taiwan, the lesson to be learned from their experience is the great importance of employment expansion in poverty removal. The experiences of Sri Lanka and Tanzania are recounted to illustrate the positive role of state action. Like Sri Lanka's program of social welfare, Tanzania's literacy program shows how much can be achieved by a determined effort, sensibly directed toward specific goals. Poverty removal and related features, including longevity enhancement, is ultimately dependent on a wide distribution of effective entitlements. This, for any given level of per capita income--would tend to be reflected in the low level of inequality in the distribution of income.     

Assessing the accuracy of electricity production forecasts in developing countries

This study assesses the accuracy of time series econometric methods for forecasting electricity production in developing countries. An analysis of the historical time series for 106 developing countries over the period 1960–2012 demonstrates that econometric forecasts are highly accurate for the majority of these countries. These forecasts have much smaller errors than the predictions of simple heuristic models, which assume that electricity production grows at an exogenous rate or is proportional to the real GDP growth. However, the quality of the forecasts diminishes for the countries and regions, where rapid economic and structural transformation makes it difficult to establish stable historical production trends.     

Inclusion and education in European countries: methodological considerations

In this paper, the author intends to explain the comparative challenges of a research project and the methodological grounding and justification of the research conclusions. The research project regarded an assignment of the European Commission to assess inclusion measures in primary and secondary education in 10 European countries, i.e. France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, The Netherlands, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the UK (Contract 2007-2094/001 TRA-TRSPO). National as well as comparative reports were submitted to the Commission in August 2009 and accepted for further publication in October 2009. The present paper will concentrate on the methodological issues and considerations. It will demonstrate that the conclusions were grounded and justified from a methodological perspective, applying an appropriate mix of quantitative and qualitative methods, notwithstanding serious limitations and restrictions.     

Bank failure prediction models: for the developing and developed countries

Banks make good use of capital and have characteristics different from profit businesses. Mismanagement causes collapse, which negatively affects investors, depositors, and employees, and disrupts economic order. Consequences may also affect other industries, triggering financial distress. Therefore, evaluating operational risks in banks and developing an early warning system are critical. This study evaluates data from 858 international banks (including banking holding companies) from 2005 to 2008 and applies a logistic model to analyze critical factors. Results show that equity-to-assets (ETA) and interest income – interest expense/income (NIN) had negative relationships with financial distress. Banks accept deposits and make loans. A higher proportion of NIN shows stable business volume, which could avert financial distress. Therefore, ETA and NIN were indicative of banking financial distress and best predicted trends in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and European Union (EU) banks.     

发达国家发展"绿色包装"的亮点

介绍了美国、德国、法国、英国、日本、瑞典等发达国家发展“绿色包装”的成功经验，以供我国发展绿色包装而借鉴。     

Editorial introduction: Is the World Bank lending effective in developing countries?

This special issue of Economic Systems includes five papers about the World Bank lending in developing countries. The motivation for the special issue stems from the relatively extensive literature on the sister institution, namely, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but not on the World Bank itself. The papers’ focus is the influence of the World Bank lending on economic growth, education and health, poverty reduction, and regulation in the recipient countries. The papers’ findings contribute to our understanding of the effects of the World Bank lending in developing countries, which reflects both successes and shortcomings.     

The demand for housing in developing countries: The case of Korea

This paper presents the results of an analysis of urban housing demand for Korea taking into account the most recent findings of housing demand analysis concerning specification and aggregation biases. In order to obtain correctly specified demand functions, a procedure based on a model of the housing market originally proposed by Muth is used. Drawing on the detailed land information available in Korea, this procedure permits the calculation of an individual price per unit of housing services for each household. The results show conclusively that both the income and price elasticity of the demand for housing services in Korea are comparable to those found in the United States: the income elasticity is smaller than one and the price elasticity is negative and smaller than one in absolute value. Given the number of countries found within the per capita income range between Korea ($700) and the United States ($7800), the finding that these two countries have comparable demand elasticities is of major significance: in the absence of good national estimates, the order of magnitudes found here would be used for other country analyses.