COINTEGRATION AND CHANGES IN REGIME: THE JAPANESE CONSUMPTION FUNCTION

In this paper we examine a model of cointegration where long-run parameters are subject to switching between several different cointegrating regimes. These shifts are allowed to be governed by the outcome of an unobserved Markov chain with unknown transition probabilities. We illustrate this approach using Japanese data on consumption and disposable income, and find that the data favour a Markov-switching long-run relationship over a standard temporally stable formulation. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PRE-TEST ESTIMATION AND TESTING IN ECONOMETRICS: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Abstract. This paper surveys a range of important developments in the area of preliminary-test inference in the context of econometric modelling. Both pre-test estimation and pre-test testing are discussed. Special attention is given to recent contributions and results. These include analyses of pre-test strategies under model mis-specification and generalised regression errors; exact sampling distribution results; and pre-testing inequality constraints on the model's parameters. In many cases, practical advice is given to assist applied econometricians in appraising the relative merits of pre-testing. It is shown that there are situations where pre-testing can be advantageous in practice     

ARCH MODELS: PROPERTIES, ESTIMATION AND TESTING

Abstract. The aim of this survey paper is to provide an account of some of the important developments in the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model since its inception in a seminal paper by Engle (1982). This model takes account of many observed properties of asset prices, and therefore, various interpretations can be attributed to it. We start with the basic ARCH models and discuss their different interpretations. ARCH models have been generalized in different directions to accommodate more and more features of the real world. We provide a comprehensive treatment of many of the extensions of the original ARCH model. Next we discuss estimation and testing for ARCH models and note that these models lead to some interesting and unique problems. There have been numerous applications and we mention some of these as we present different models. The paper includes a glossary of the acronyms for the models we describe.     

CAREER ORIENTATIONS IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES AND COMPANIES: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF WEST GERMAN,BRITISH AND US INDUSTRIAL R&D PROFESSIONALS[1]

This study examined dimensions and levels of career orientations and their correlation with work-related outcome criteria among industrial R&D professionals. Questionnaire data were obtained in 11 West German, 4 British, and 2 US R&D units of large industrial companies. Respondents were 729 West German, 217 British, and 124 US scientists and engineers. Managerial career orientation and professional/scientific career orientation emerged from factor and scale analyses as two independent orientation dimensions with similar meaning across the three countries and the 17 R&D organizations. Results indicated significant cross-country differences in levels of professional/scientific career orientation, but not in levels of managerial career orientation. Significant differences in levels of both orientation dimensions were detected between R&D units within countries. Distinctive characteristics of West German firms employing R&D staff with particularly strong professional/scientific or managerial career orientations are suggested. Managerial and professional/scientific career orientations were found to be differentially related to objective indicators and self-ratings of research performance. Directions for future research and managerial implications for selecting and rewarding R&D employees with different patterns of career orientations are discussed.     

PRIVATISATION AND EFFICIENCY IN THE UK WATER INDUSTRY: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACTS The post-privatisation structure of the UK water industry involves the separation of environmental services from other outputs previously produced under an integrated system by the publicly-owned water authorities. This paper examines the extent to which the integrated authorities benefitted from joint production. Estimating a dynamic multi-product cost function from pooled cross-section, time-series quality adjusted data drawn from the accounts of the water authorities for the period 1979/80–1987/88, prior to privatisation, significant elements of joint production are found. Divestiture of the industry, arguably justified on other criteria, implies the loss of substantial areas of cost complimentary.     

Q‐FACTORS IN EMPIRICAL ASSET PRICING: A REVIEW AND SYNTHESIS

The latest development in the asset pricing literature is the emergence of empirical asset pricing models comprising q‐factors (profitability and investment factors) in conjunction with other factors. However, as in the case of the older empirical models, there is scepticism regarding the application of these newer factor models consisting of q‐factors because of the debate surrounding the explanatory power of these empirically inspired asset pricing models. This review attempts to synthesize studies pertaining to the four alternative explanations of the asset pricing models comprising the q‐factors (profitability and investment) – the data snooping hypothesis, the risk‐based explanation, the irrational investor behaviour explanation and the interpretation that suggest that the combination of the risk‐free asset and the factors comprising the model span the mean‐variance efficient tangency portfolio that prices the universe of assets.     

LINKING CHANGES IN REVEALED CAUSAL MAPS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

This article explores the cognitive maps of the dominant coalition of one firm over time. It begins with an overview of the cognitive mapping literature and discusses ‘revealed cognitive maps’ as one strategy for measuring managerial cognitive structures. Next, the revealed cognitive maps from one company over a 20-year period are analysed for their fit with the company's environmental context. The data suggest that the fit between cognitive structures and the environment was less than perfect, and that decision-makers both under-identified and over-identified certain environmental factors. These and other data are discussed within the context of a cognitive approach to managerial thinking.     

STRATEGIC AWARENESS, PERSONAL COMMITMENT AND THE PROCESS OF PLANNING IN THE SMALL BUSINESS

This paper is based on detailed study [1], over two years, of sixteen small companies based in the northern region of the U.K. the study was concerned with the way in which the companies pursued different lines of product and market development. the research was characterized by experimental ‘action inputs’ designed to allow observation of the impact of different types of ‘software’(information, counselling, training/education) support on the development process. On the basis of this observation the paper constructs a model of the development process as a basis for evaluation of ‘assistance support’. This model, derived from theoretical concepts, nevertheless has been used in practice by companies for the evaluation of their own specific business development and has also been used for training small firm advisers. Observation of the development process enables a characterization of methods of planning used and evaluation of their influence. This indicates clearly the absence of formal planning models but underlines the importance of the strategic awareness and personal commitment of the owner manager in pursuing particular objectives. Strategic awareness is defined and its relationships with forms of assistance are explored. Implications are then drawn for those who seek to assist small businesses.     

AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL DURATION MODELS IN FINANCE: A SURVEY OF THE THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

Abstract.  This paper provides an up-to-date survey of the main theoretical developments in autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) modeling and empirical studies using financial data. First, we discuss the properties of the standard ACD specification and its extensions, existing diagnostic tests, and joint models for the arrival times of events and some market characteristics. Then, we present the empirical applications of ACD models to different types of events, and identify possible directions for future research.     

OFFSHORING, MULTINATIONALS AND LABOUR MARKET: A REVIEW OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

Abstract.  This paper reviews the empirical literature on the effects of offshoring and foreign activities of multinational enterprises on developed countries' labour markets. Results suggest that material offshoring worsens wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers; it also seems to make employment more volatile, by raising the elasticity of labour demand and the risk of job losses. Service offshoring exerts at most small negative effects on total employment, and changes the composition of the workforce in favour of high-skilled white-collar employees. Multinationals tend to substitute domestic and foreign labour in response to changes in relative wages across countries; substitutability is weak, however, and mainly driven by horizontal, market-seeking foreign direct investments.     

MATERNAL EDUCATION AND CHILD ATTAINMENT IN JAMAICA: TESTING THE BARGAINING POWER HYPOTHESIS†

In a bargaining model of household decision-making, any variable reflecting the outside opportunities of household members will influence household demand patterns. Mother's education has been found to be an important determinant of children's education and health outcomes. This paper argues that within a bargaining framework, mother's education may influence children's health and education by shifting bargaining power within the household. An empirical strategy is developed and applied to data on teenage grade attainment and school enrolment in Jamaica. The results support the bargaining power hypothesis, and imply a broader role for mother's education than has previously been considered.