产品和地理多样化对农产品贸易的影响分析

[目的]农业在中国经济发展中一直处于基础产业地位,其既是人类赖以生存的物质基础,同时也是重要的工业原料。另外,在世界农产品贸易中,中国也扮演着十分重要的角色。因此,农产品的进出口对中国的农业生产有着深远影响,农产品进出口的稳定性直接决定了中国农业生产的稳定性。为此,将从产品和地理多样化视角,探究中国农产品进出口的稳定性。[方法]利用标准化赫芬达尔指数对中国农产品出口(进口)的地理多样化和产品多样化进行了测度,并在此基础上,进一步利用回归方法对出口(进口)地理多样化和产品多样化对农产品出口(进口)波动性的影响进行了检验。[结果]无论是出口还是进口,地理多样化和产品多样化都存在不同程度的行业异质性;无论是出口还是进口,地理多样化和产品多样化对农产品贸易波动性的影响存在着不同程度的行业异质性。[结论]在产品结构和地理结构方面,根据不同商品类别采取多样化或专一化政策以减少中国农产品进出口的波动性。     

PRODUCER COOPERATIVES,INPUT PRICING AND LAND ALLOCATION

This paper considers input pricing rules for a producer cooperative which supplies its members with two inputs: a publicly provided private input (water), and a local public input (road services). An Israeli Moshav which allocates land equally among producers is a good example. The cooperative uses a two-part pricing rule: a product-dependent uniform fee (head tax) and a user charge per unit of the private input. Discrimination of head tax among the producer groups is shown to dominate that of user charge in the short run. However, land reallocation among producers can result in a Pareto-superior pricing rule and the Henry George theorem emerges in the long run. Thus, allowing land leasing while maintaining equal rights to land increases producer welfare.     

FARM DIVERSIFICATION AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT

Under a new policy initiative, grants will be payable for the setting up of ancillary businesses on or adjacent to farms in the UK. While this initiative is to be welcomed, it is suggested that more could be done to develop the rural economy as a whole. Farm diversification grants, modelled on previous farm capital grant schemes, are focused on a narrow range of activities, for which demand is likely to be limited, and are most appropriate for the larger farm. They imply that farmine will continue to be the main activity and run counter to current trends. The goals of rural development and farm income support might be pursued more effectively by encouraging the creation in rural areas of off-farm employment, unrelated to agriculture, and suitable for members of families on low-income farms.     

NONPOINT POLLUTION,WEEDS AND RISK

Nonpoint pollution from agricultural production continues to force regulators to rethink policies aimed at reducing input sources such as herbicides and fertilisers. This paper considers how a producer's choice of an input strategy defined by application rate or persistence affects input-use patterns, and consequently, nonpoint pollution. Working within an endogenous risk framework, we explore how input sets with herbicides defined either as self-insurance or self-protection are affected by increased risk of herbicide treatment failure. Our results suggest that increased risk will generally decrease both herbicide and fertiliser application rates, resulting in the use of less flexible and less persistent herbicides. In addition, a quantity constraint policy restricting the amount of herbicide applied will decrease the amount of fertiliser applied.     

RISK,UTILITY AND STOCKING RATE*

A simple utility-based model of risky wool production is presented. Evaluation of the model indicates the effect on optimal stocking rate of changes in the degree of risk aversion, farm area, variable cost, fixed cost, wool cut, wool price, variance of wool price, climatic variability and tax rate. It is shown that the utility hypothesis implies a lower optimal stocking rate than does expected profit maximization and hence implies a discrepancy between private and public optimal resource use which it is suggested, might be mitigated by a progressive bounty on wool production.     

MARKETING AUSTRALIAN BEEF AND EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION SCHEMES*

The Australian Meat Board (AMB) can influence the quantities sent to and the prices received for Australian beef and veal in the domestic and various export markets. Through its power to grant export licences and the conditions to be met in obtaining export licences the AMB can adopt the role of a price discriminating monopolist without supply control. This paper evaluates the price, quantity, efficiency and distribution effects of the export diversification scheme introduced by the AMB in 1968, of some modified schemes proposed in 1976, and of an alternative system whereby rights to export to premium export markets with quota restrictions are auctioned.     

RISK PERCEPTION AND THE ANALYSIS OF RISK ATTITUDES*

Risk has long been recognised as an important feature of the environment facing farmers. In recent years the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory has been used to analyse decision making under risk. However, many people behave in a manner inconsistent with the expected utility theory. One widely suggested explanation is based on subjective probability distortion. A number of attempts to incorporate this phenomenon into utility theories have been made. In this paper, the problems of analysing subjective probability distortion are discussed. Evidence from a survey of farmers' risk attitudes undertaken in conjunction with the 1977 BAE Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey is analysed in the light of this discussion.     

中心城市驱动、涟漪效应与农产品安全认证

目的 随着农产品安全问题愈发受到消费者关注,控制农产品安全的源头在“农田”环节,如何扩大安全认证规模,提高认证可信度是当前亟需解决的问题。方法 文章基于2013—2015年四川省无公害认证数据,以中心城市成都为例,探讨无公害认证分布特征,实证分析了市场驱动对农产品安全认证的影响。结果 四川种植业无公害安全认证规模和销售额呈以成都为中心的涟漪效应;无公害认证存在空间集聚效应,在地理距离上,认证主要集中在距离成都周围400km以内区域,在经济距离上,主要集中在与成都人均GDP差距在5万元/人的区域;市场需求容量、地理距离、政府规制与认证规模和销售额都呈显著正相关,且地级市对无公害认证的促进作用高于省会城市。结论 为提升安全认证农产品的收益水平和社会福利水平,需要强化市场信息揭示,解决信息不对称;压缩农产品认证地与中心城市之间的交易成本;保证合理溢价水平,增加安全认证规模。     

依托农业资源 发展名优产品

根据衡水市区域位置和农业资源状况,提出积极调整农业结构,发展名优农产品的对策;并结合名优农产品的生产现状提出了发展对策.     

THE DISINCENTIVE EFFECT OF FOOD-FOR-WORK ON LABOUR SUPPLY AND AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION AND DIVERSIFICATION IN ETHIOPIA

Food-for-work (FFW) as a form of food aid has been criticised for its many disincentive effects. This paper investigates alleged disincentive effects of food-for-work (FFW) on labour supply and agricultural intensification and diversification in one district of Ethiopia, using a ranking exercise and a small survey of farmer opinion. Despite the popularity of FFW as a source of income, careful project design meant that disincentives were largely avoided. In particular, the take-up of FFW was restricted, by a combination of self-targeting and community based administrative rationing; and agricultural intensification and diversification were encouraged directly through extension programmes.     

PRODUCTION RISK AND EFFICIENT ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES

Efficient allocation of resources has usually been couched in risk less terms, partly because statistical techniques did not exist for measuring the impact of varying levels of factors of production on risks associated with production. Now that such techniques are available, methods are required for determining efficient allocations. Such models, particularly those exploiting stochastic efficiency analysis, are illustrated here with respect to empirical risk-sensitive, farm-firm production functions.     

景观生态风险信息系统的概念、方法和步骤

景观生态风险信息系统（LERIS）是将景观生态学理论和3S技术相结合进行风险分析的现代规划管理系统。它通过对自然景观、人文因素矣风险源的全面调查，将所需的各类信息进行方便快速的采集、处理和管理等，利用GIS对景观生态状况和潜在风险进行分析、模拟和预测，从而为管理部门的决策提供科学的依据。LERIS在资源和环境的管理和规划领域具有广阔的应用前景。结合实例介绍了景观生态风险信息系统概念、方法和步骤，以期引起国内同仁的进一步关注。     

农产品价格与保鲜努力决策及协调契约研究

[目的]农产品新鲜度的提升对于提升农产品供应链的整体效益具有重大作用。由单个供应商和单个零售商组成的农产品供应链中,各个节点企业在自身效益最大化前提下均没有足够动力独自保证农产品新鲜度。[方法]文章提出供应链成员可以采取合作的方式共同投资保证农产品新鲜度,在集中式决策模式下,通过设计契约合同进行利益的协调分配,使双方利益均达到最优。[结果]通过模型的计算及相应的数值仿真,结果表明:若供应链成员采取合作的方式投资农产品新鲜度的保鲜技术,不仅使自身利润增加,还可以使农产品的最优价格降低,新鲜度提高,消费者效用增加,产品销量提升,从而促进了农产品的有效推广与销售。[结论]产品新鲜度是影响农产品需求的重要因素,在农产品供应链模型中,通过设计合理的收益共享契约对农产品供应商与零售商之间的博弈进行协调,能够为农产品供应链成员进行更加合理有效的决策提供依据。     

RISK,UTILITY AND THE PALATABILTY OF EXTENSION ADVICE TO FARMER GROUPS

Using the results of an empirical study of farmers' utility functions, evidence is presented that risk plays a measurable role in farmer decision making. The extension implications of such risk influences are discussed with particular emphasis on the possible efficacy of using group utility functions as a basis for group recommendations.     

农作物生产风险评估与区划系统的设计与实现

针对农作物生产风险的分析、评估、区划、保险费率厘定和赔付估算的研究及应用需求,提出了基于COM组件技术和MATLAB、ArcGIS Server应用的软件系统设计方法,通过.NET平台开发出农作物风险评估与区划系统,实现了我国不同地区、不同灾种、不同作物生产风险的分析、评估和区划等功能.结果表明,该系统能够很好地完成以上功能并在很大程度上提高专业领域的研究效率.     

农业生产性服务促进粮食绿色生产的效应及作用机制研究

[目的]探究农业生产性服务对粮食绿色生产的促进效应及其作用机制。[方法]文章采用2001—2020年中国31个省（市、自治区，不含港澳台）的面板数据，基于“双碳视角”以粮食产量和粮食生产中碳汇总量作为期望产出指标，以碳排放量为非期望产出指标，采用全局要素生产率指数（GML）和超效率数据包络模型（SBM）测度了各省份粮食绿色全要素生产率（GTFP），并采用面板回归模型检验农业生产性服务对粮食绿色生产的促进效应及作用路径。[结果]（1）全国总体粮食GTFP年均值为1.013 1，说明中国粮食的绿色全要素生产率存在一定程度的改善。大多数地区的粮食绿色全要素生产率呈逐年增长，GTFP改进的地区占比达70.97%。省域之间的粮食GTFP波动情况存在一定程度差异，粮食主销区的绿色生产水平要明显低于粮食主产区和产销平衡区。（2）农业生产性服务对粮食绿色生产具有显著促进作用。就不同粮食产销区而言，农业生产性服务对粮食产销平衡区的促进作用最大，其次是主产区，对主销区的作用效果并不显著。（3）就作用机制而言，农业生产性服务通过规模经营、专业分工及技术进步促进粮食的绿色生产。[结论]应大力支持农业生产性服务...     

社会资本、大病风险感知与非正式预防行为研究

[目的]农户自身资源是其预防及应对风险的重要依赖,而社会资本在提升农户生计资源方面有重要的作用。[方法]文章基于湖北、广西和江西3省6县570个农户的调研数据,运用中介效应模型解析社会资本、大病风险感知及非正式预防行为三者间的关系。[结果](1)社会信任、社会参与、社会声望、社会网络及社会资本总量对大病风险感知均有显著的负向影响;(2)社会网络和社会信任对非正式预防行为有显著正向影响,而社会参与维度对非正式预防行为有显著负向影响;大病风险感知对非正式预防行为有显著的正向影响;(3)大病风险感知在社会资本和非正式预防行为之间起着中介作用。[结论]可通过培育不同维度的社会资本,增加农户社会资源;引导非正式制度的发展;加强对农户的宣传教育及完善公共卫生医疗等基础设施建设等以增强农户风险应对能力。     

STABILISATION AND RISK REDUCTION IN AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE*

Agricultural producers typically are faced with risk about the yields they will experience and the prices they will receive. Stabilisation schemes can spread risk and thereby reduce the risk faced by individual producers. The risk-reducing capacity of a scheme and the cost of risk reduction depend upon the design of the scheme. In particular, it is important to distinguish between risk and instability. A classification of scheme designs is presented to bring out the effects of various design types. Schemes for the wheat industry are given most attention.     

RISK AND FARM SIZE IN THE PASTORAL ZONE

Variable performance over time is an important feature of wool growing in the eastern pastoral zone of Australia. An analysis of time series data from the Australian Sheep Industry Survey indicates that standard deviation of net farm income is related more or less linearly to size of firm and increases with size at about the same rate as does average net income. A tentative conclusion is drawn that large farms have had a slight tendency to experience less variable rates of return than small farms. However, it is found that farms that have experienced relatively variable returns have tended to enjoy average rates of return above those of other farms of similar size.     

渔业风险的原因分析及防范对策

根据渔业的特点，结合渔业风险产生的原因，提出将渔业风险大致分为自然风险、市场风险、技术风险和管理风险四类，并针对渔业风险的类别，提出一系列有效措施，防范和降低渔业风险。