Demand for improved fish feed in the presence of a subsidy: a double hurdle application in Kenya

Fish farming households’ demand for improved fish feed from the private market in Kenya is potentially influenced by the government's feed subsidy program. This article applies the double‐hurdle model to a cross‐section of fish farms to analyze demand for improved fish feed from private markets, and whether the government feed subsidy program has an effect on private demand for improved feed. The results indicate that households’ decisions to participate in the improved feed market are affected by the quantity of improved feed received from the government. Once the participation decision has been made, we find evidence of crowding‐in of the private improved feed sector; that is, the government's allocations of subsidized feed appear to increase private sector demand. In addition, the price of improved feed negatively affects the quantity purchased as expected. Education, extension contacts, and ease of marketing matured fish increase household propensity to purchase improved feed commercially. Policies that help reduce the price of improved feed such as reduction in tariffs on imported feeds and feed ingredients will foster demand for the feed, as will policies that facilitate marketing of fish at reasonable prices by households.     

Estimating feed utilisation matrices using a cost function approach

In this paper a multiple-output cost function framework is proposed to construct national feed balances or feed utilisation matrices (FUMs). The framework is applied to the Belgian compound feed industry. For estimation purposes a Symmetrie Generalised McFadden (SGM) cost function is selected. The cost function is estimated using readily available time-series data for the period 1962–88. Unlike previous studies based on duality theory, this study exploits the properties of nonjointness in animal feed production to establish a complete FUM. The allocation of feed ingredients among different livestock categories as well as the composition of various compound feeds are identified. Also own- and cross-price elasticities of demand for feed ingredients by type of livestock are reported.     

Interaction between livestock and feeds policies: evidence from Southeast Asia

Consumption of livestock products in Southeast Asia could continue to increase rapidly, as has been the case in Northeast Asia. The extent to which domestic producers may respond to these demand developments will be influenced by government interventions in both livestock product and feeds markets. The paper analyses the net contribution of livestock product and feed price distortions on the effective rate of protection, and whether intervention in the commodity market is augmented or offset by intervention in the feeds market. While policy-induced distortions were found to exist in the livestock sectors of Thailand and Malaysia, especially in beef and dairy production, the contribution of feeds policies to these distortions was minimal. In contrast implicit taxes on feeds were high in Indonesia and the Philippines. In the latter, support on product prices was sufficient to more than offset the tax on feeds so that effective protection remained positive. But in Indonesia both livestock and feeds policies worked to provide disincentives to livestock production. It is concluded that livestock and feeds policies should be formulated with regard to objectives and priorities within both sectors. This could require that greater emphasis be placed on feeds sector assistance policies that do not affect the price of feeds.     

The Demand and Supply of Norwegian Atlantic Salmon in the United States and the European Community

A simultaneous-equation model of the demand and supply of Norwegian Atlantic salmon in the United States and the European Community is constructed, and sensitivity analyses are conducted to measure the effects of changing exchange rates, the Norwegian supply of Atlantic salmon, and prices of North American Pacific salmon. Using monthly statistics from January 1983 through March 1987, the demand for Norwegian Atlantic salmon is found to be highly seasonal, and highly price and income elastic in the United States and the European Community. Chinook is found to be a weak substitute for Norwegian Atlantic salmon in the U.S., and frozen chinook, sockeye and coho in the European Community are also found to be weak substitutes for Norwegian Atlantic salmon. Nous avons élaboré un modéle à équations simultanées de la demande et de ?approvisionnement pour le saumon de ?Atlantique provenant de Norvège, aux États-Unis et dans la Communauté européenne, et nous avons precédé à des analyses de sensibilité afin de mesurer les effets de la variation des taux de change, des approvisionnements de saumon de ?Atlantique de Norvège et des prix du saumon du Pacifique provenant ?Amérique du Nord. En nous fondant sur les statistiques mensuelles recueillies de Janvier 1983 à mars 1987, nous avons constaté que la demande de saumon de ?Atlantique provenant de Norvège est extrêmement saisonnière et qu'elle est élastique par rapport aux prix et aux revenus, aux États-Unis et dans la Communauté européenne. Le saumon quinnat (chinook) s'est avéré un piètre produit de remplacement du saumon de ?Atlantique provenant de Norvège dans la Communauté européenne.     

The Transformation of the Spanish Livestock System in the Second and Third Food Regimes

The present paper contains an analysis of the special characteristics of livestock systems in Spain, in the context of the domestic and international food relations that prevailed during the so‐called Second and Third Food Regimes. Spanish livestock is an interesting case because patterns of meat production and consumption have changed dramatically since the 1960s, as Spain has become one of Europe's major meat producers. There were also successive periods of transformation in Spain throughout the historical periods analysed herein, from an extensive to an intensive industrial model as well as from a domestically focused to an internationally oriented sector. In particular, the international context has been crucial in the development of Spanish livestock because of Spain's dependence on imported livestock feed and the increasing relevance of exports, especially to other European countries following Spain's accession to the European Union in 1986.     

AN INTEGRATED ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF THE CANADIAN LIVESTOCK-FEED SECTOR*

Canadian econometric studies dealing with the livestock-feed sector have tended to concentrate on individual commodities, or on a particular component of the market equilibrium process. In this article an integrated model of the sector is presented which depicts the nature of commodity interactions both at the consumer level and the producer level. The feed sector was conceptualized primarily in terms of derived demand. The model contained a total of 82 equations, of which 64 were related to the livestock subsystem. The estimated model was subsequently used for predicting the impact of changes in selected instrumental variables on the livestock-feed sector.
Les dernières etudes économétriques canadiennes traitant du pâturage se sont concentrées sur les produits séparés on sur un composé particulier répondant au besoin commercial. Cet article présents un modèle intégré du secteur montrant la nature des actions réciproques entrc les produits au niveau du consommateur et du producteur. Le secteur pâturage est expliqué en fonction de la demande. Le modèle contenait 82 équations, 64 desquelles se rapportaient àľélevage; par conséquent le modèle est employé pour prédire ľinfluence dans les pâturages de changements opérés sur les composants choisis.     

The Effectiveness of Antidumping Measures: Some Evidence for Farmed Atlantic Salmon

Counterfactual simulations of a partial equilibrium model of the world salmon market suggest safeguard tariffs imposed by the European Commission on salmon imports from Norway, Chile, and the Faroe Islands would do more to punish producers in the named exporting countries than to reward United Kingdom producers. The reason is that export supply is less elastic than import demand on a bilateral basis, which means that most of the tariff's incidence is borne by the targeted producers rather than EU consumers. The incidence problem is exacerbated by the feed quota (now biomass limit) that Norway uses to limit its production. A marketing fee that expands market demand is shown to be less distortionary than its tariff equivalent, and thus may be preferred from a second‐best perspective.     

Is There an Image Crisis in the Spanish Vegetables?

Abstract

The Spanish horticultural sector has been adversely affected by recurring crises in the last years, showing a significant economic impact upon demand. These crises have different sources (internal and external) and origins (food safety, social, and environmental issues). However, research devoted to analyzing the nature and scope of these events and their influence on consumers’ perception is scarce. For this purpose, this research provides a conceptual framework that defines and classifies the main image crises that have affected the sector. Consequently, an exploratory study is conducted to analyze to what extent European consumers know the sector and to determine how consumer knowledge influences the Spanish product-country image. Data were analyzed using a Logit Model. Results suggest that crises have seriously affected the demand of Spanish vegetables and consumers’ perceived image. Factors affecting the sector’s image through consumer knowledge are different depending on consumers’ country-of-origin (national vs. foreign countries).     

ISSUES OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY IN A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

Growth in agricultural productivity and the stimulus of price supports have led to overproduction in Western Europe: in particular, the European Community has become a smaller importer and even a major exporter of several products. But as prices in the EC are usually above world levels, this requires expensive subsidisation and leads to trade conflicts. Adjustments now forced on the CAP mean a greater cost-price squeeze, besides imposing quotas on the dairy sector. Policy aims relating to farm incomes and to market balance have thus become very difficult to reconcile. Future policy will also have to take more account of the impact of farming on the environment and of the role of agricultural activity in rural communities. Are there policy instruments, such as direct aids, which can help to achieve such diverse goals? What are the implications of changing circumstances for farming systems, and in particular can low-input systems offer an alternative to the ‘productivist’ farming model?     

A QUARTERLY MODEL OF THE AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR*

Several farm sector econometric models are reviewed initially and the aggregation problem highlighted. A thirty-equation model of the Australian agricultural sector is specified in which farm output, stocks and exports and the domestic demand for farm products are endogenous, as well as farm, export and retail prices. Disaggregation is into food and non-food components of unprocessed output, and the processing of food is traced through to final demand. The model is estimated by a modified 2SLS procedure using quarterly data covering the period 1960-1970.     

Labor issues and COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted Canada and several other countries to impose an economic shutdown to prevent a deadly public health crisis from becoming much deadlier. In the agriculture and food sector, several hundred thousand restaurant workers have lost their jobs. The rise in unemployment, the closing of restaurants and schools, and social distancing have triggered demand reductions for certain commodities and foods and demand increases for others, bringing along changes in demand for inputs including labor. Canadian employers of temporary foreign workers (TFWs) are facing delays and additional constraints in recruiting, but so have US and European employers of TFWs. Rising food security concerns are making protectionist trade policies popular. Domestic and foreign firms may export less and do more foreign direct investment, inducing trade in jobs.     

Risk, Wealth, and Sectoral Choice in Rural Credit Markets

We model the role of the informal credit sector in developing countries. The informational advantage of informal lenders is portrayed as the ability to monitor borrowers. Monitoring reduces the incentive problem and allows for contracts with lower collateral. This enables informal lenders to serve both individuals who cannot post the collateral required by the formal sector and those who are able but do not want to post collateral. The model is consistent with the conventional view of the informal sector as recipient of spillover demand from the formal sector. It also shows that the informal sector may provide partial insurance as the lower collateral requirement implies greater consumption smoothing for borrowers.     

RELATIVE PRICE VARIABILITY AMONG AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AND MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

This paper develops measures of relative price variability among agricultural commodities in the UK farm sector for the period 1956-88. Econometric tests of the hypothesis that relative price variability is positively correlated with instability in the macroeconomy are carried out. The results indicate that UK agricultural commodity prices become more volatile relative to one another when the economy-wide inflation rate increases and when aggregate output becomes more variable. These findings suggest that UK producers and consumers of domestically grown farm products experience increased risk and uncertainty in their production and consumption decisions during periods of macroeconomic instability. The effects of UK entry into the European Community are also examined; no evidence is found to suggest that adoption of the Common Agricultural Policy reduced year-to-year relative price variability among agricultural commodities.     

ECONOMIC EFFECTIVENESS OF BRAND ADVERTISING PROGRAMMES FOR U.S. ORANGE JUICE IN THE EUROPEAN MARKET: AN ERROR COMPONENT ANALYSIS

An econometric model is used to measure the impact of the Three-Party Programme on European demand for U.S. orange juice. The results show that the programme has helped expand the demand for orange juice in European countries and, from the viewpoint of the U.S. citrus industry, is an economically preferred way of generating additional exports compared with using price reductions to achieve additional sales.     

Partial Market Liberalization and the Efficiency of Policy Reform: The Case of the European Dairy Sector

This article analyzes the efficiency of partial market liberalization and policy reform with an application to the European dairy sector. In a second best world, partial moves toward market liberalization are not always efficiency improving. We develop a general equilibrium model to investigate the efficiency implications of discrete changes in government policy. The analysis covers price and quantity instruments used in both domestic and trade policy. We derive simple conditions under which partial market liberalization is efficiency improving. We apply the approach to agricultural policy reform in the European dairy sector and identify market liberalization scenarios that are "not" efficiency improving.     

面向可持续的渔业补贴:共同渔业政策进入新一轮改革

本文为德国不来梅大学欧洲环境法规研究中心Till Markus发表在Marine Policy 2010年第34卷1117-1124页文章的中译文。2009年4月22日,欧洲委员会发布了"共同渔业政策改革绿皮书",指出该政策的一个矛盾,一方面对渔业领域的公共财政资助是重要的,另一方面这些资助常常与其他共同渔业政策(Common Fishery Policy,CFP)目标,特别是减少生产能力过剩的目标相冲突。文章提供了一种更好理解补贴影响的分析框架,以及对CFP下的基金计划总体评述,旨在解答欧洲委员会在绿皮书中提出的一些问题。问题的解答基于2种观点:海洋捕捞资源的开发最终依赖于可获得的鱼类种群水平,大量的补贴通过刺激投资动机使鱼类资源压力增大。忽视这种趋势的政策导致了无效和不可持续的捕捞以及公共基金的不公分配。虽然近年来CFP下的援助计划有所改观,但仍存在一些问题。未来对渔业的资助必需朝着可持续和有效利用的方向改革。文章对于了解欧盟的渔业补贴政策、增强渔业补贴经济学评价以及促进我国"强渔惠渔"政策的制定与实施等具有一定的参考意义。     

Tracing the evolution of the aggregate U.S. milk supply elasticity using a herd dynamics model

The U.S. dairy sector is characterized by increasing volatility of milk prices, and consolidation in production as evidenced by declining number of dairy farms with an increasingly larger share of milk supplied from a small number of very large farms. Using aggregate national data, we build a mixed‐frequency herd dynamics econometric model of the U.S. milk supply that updates and substantially amends the model first proposed by Chavas and Klemme. We implement a dynamic residual‐based bootstrap technique that can be used in testing for changes in nonmarginal simulated long‐run supply responsiveness, and trace the evolution of long‐run milk supply elasticity from 1975 through 2010. Several papers in the past have suggested that long‐run supply elasticity increases with dairy farm size, which implies that increased importance of large farms would increase aggregate long‐run supply responsiveness. Contrary to this conclusion, we find a declining trend in long‐run supply elasticity from 1975 through 2005. Persistence of such a decline would be a major cause for worry, as ever larger price swings would be needed to equilibrate the market in face of demand shocks. However, we find that milk supply is becoming more responsive since 2005 both to milk and feed price changes. Increasing responsiveness to feed prices further justifies focusing the next generation of the dairy policy instruments on managing dairy profit margins rather than just revenue streams.     

Supply and demand estimates for feed grains in China

In the past two decades, the use of grain to feed livestock in China has increased rapidly. A number of studies have examined demand and supply of grain for animal feed in China. Forecasts have been made. Generally, these projections have turned out to be well wide of the actual supply and demand. Further, forecasts of supply and demand for feed grains for the same time periods have differed greatly. Accurate forecasts of variables affecting supply and demand benefit both producers and consumers. Past forecasts of supply and demand of feed grain for livestock production in China are reviewed and reasons for discrepancies between projections are explored. Ways to improve projections of demand for and supply of grain for livestock feed in China are identified.     

A partial adjustment model with rational expectations applied to the goat sector in Greece

In this paper an attempt is made to examine the rational expectations hypothesis for the goat-meat sector in Greece within the framework of a single equation method that describes the factors affecting demand and supply. The structural equations of the model are estimated by applying the Cochrane-Orcutt technique. The calculated elasticities suggest that Greek goat producers should pay more attention to milk rather than meat production. Statistical indications also confirm the effects of the Chernobyl accident upon the goat sector. Moreover, the forecasting ability of the model has been tested using simulation procedures, which indicate a small deviation between theoretical and observed values. Finally, some further implications concerning the goat sector are drawn from this analysis.