THE DEMAND FOR MEAT — AN EXAMPLE OF AN INCOMPLETE COMMODITY DEMAND SYSTEM*

Equations describing the demand for beef and veal, mutton, lamb, pork and chicken are estimated using the full information maximum likelihood estimator. Elasticity estimates are presented and the double logarithmic model is compared with a demand system which is derived from the indirect translog utility function. Estimates of the direct price and income elasticities are not particularly sensitive to model specification but the estimated cross-price elasticities are sensitive to the choice of functional form. The results indicate that the double logarithmic specification may be less satisfactory than the alternative presented in cases where restrictions on the parameters are imposed during estimation.     

USING INPUT DEMAND AND PRODUCTION FUNCTION MODELS TO ASSESS THE NET BENEFITS OF DAIRY HERD IMPROVEMENT

Two methods of evaluating (the net social benefits of the dairy herd-improvement scheme operated by the New South Wales Department of Agriculture are described. The first involves derivation of 'an input demand' function for the herd-recording aspect of the scheme and use of this function to estimate the economic surplus (net of both private and public costs) provided by the service. The second approach involves deriving a production function for milk from which it is possible to estimate the contribution herd-recording and artificial breeding have made to increasing milk yields per cow. Social benefits are shown to have been less than social costs for herd-recording, however dairy farmers have made net private gains. The herd-recording scheme has contained a regressive subsidy element. The production function approach show that artificial breeding and herd-recording were profitable complements in production.     

WEAK SEPARABILITY AND A TEST FOR THE SPECIFICATION OF INCOME IN DEMAND MODELS WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE DEMAND FOR MEAT IN AUSTRALIA*

Most studies of the demand for meat in Australia have used some measure of total income or expenditure, but two recent studies have assumed weak separability of a meat group and used expenditure on the meat group instead. These specification differences are of interest to the extent that they affect the economic interpretation, goodness-of-fit, elasticity estimates, predictive performance or hypothesis tests in empirical demand equations. In this paper, non-nested hypothesis testing procedures are used to test the alternative specifications of the income variable and the hypothesis of separability. The results favour the use of the expenditure variable implied by separability but are mixed concerning whether separability holds.     

LINEAR PROGRAMMING MODELS FOR DETERMINING IRRIGATION DEMAND FOR WATER*

The purpose of the paper is to discuss linear programming models useful in estimating irrigation demand for water. The discussion is limited to technique and first reviews the general characteristics of linear programming models. The author then goes on to indicate the results of several models developed at the University of Manitoba to estimate irrigation demand. Cet article a pour dessein de discuter des modèles de programmation linéaire qui seraient utiles pour eslimer la demande ?eau pour ?irrigation. La discussion est limitée a la méthode à suivre et revolt en lout premier lieu les caractéristiques généraux des modèles de programmation lineaire. Linéaire continue alors avec une analyse des résultats de plusieurs modèles pour eslimer la demande ?eau pour ?irrigation développés à?Université Manitoba.     

UTILITY FUNCTIONS AND DEMAND STRUCTURE*

The purpose of this paper is to review the demand structures implied by several common utility specifications. After a review of the Hicks-Allen measures of the demand structure, four utility functions are examined including the Cobb-Douglas, CES, and Mukerji functions. The results indicate that the most popular utility specifications provide patterns of demand parameters which do not conform to those made in estimation of commodity demand functions L'objet de cet papier est passer en revue des structures commandes de quelques caractéristique de ?utilité. Après un revoir de la proposition du Hicks et Allen du structure commandes, quatre fonctions pour ?utililé sonl examiné. Ils renfermes les fonclions du Cobb-Douglas, CES, et Mukerji. Les résultats indiquent ce que les caractérisliques de, ?utilité le plus populaire pouvoissem les modèles les quels ne confor-mentpas à celles des fonctions des commandes pour les produils.     

MULTICOLLINEARITY AND CONSUMER DEMAND ELASTICITIES*

Multicollinearity is a common problem in the estimation of consumer demand models and the elasticities. While straight forward application of classical least squares often yields models with good predictive power, this apparently occurs for reasons other than the accuracy of the estimates of the parameters. The implications of multicollinearty in two-stage and three-stage least squares are discussed, with examples from Brookings Quarterly Agricultural Submodel of the United States. A comparison is made of alternative estimators of the parameters of consumer demand functions. The article points to difficulties raised by using a priori coefficients for one variable (eg. income elasticity) as a means of developing an accurate estimate of another coefficient (eg. price elasticity), and indicates evidence of multicollinearity depressing estimated consumer price elasticities. LA COLLINEARITE ET DES ELASTICITES DE LA DEMANDS DE CONSUMMATION - La collinéarité est un problème common de l'estimation des modèles de demande en consummation et des élasticités. Quoique l'application directe de la méthode classique de “moindre carré”, permet souvent d‘êlaborer des modèles ayant beaucoup de prediction, ceci semble-t-il être en function de d'autres facteurs que de l'exactitude des évaluations des paramètres. Les effets de la cottinéarité dans les estimations moindre carré de deux et trois étapes sont évahtés avec des exemples tires du “Brookings Quarterly Agricultural Submodel” des Etats-Unis. Différentes méthodes d'estimation de la fonction de la demande en consummation sont comparées. L'article fait état des difficultés que soulève l'emploi de coefficient a priori pour une variable (ex. l’êlasticité du revenue) comme moyen de développer un estimé précis d'un autre coefficient (ex. l‘élasticité de prix), et apporte de l'evidence sur l'effet attendant de la collinéarité sur les estimés d’élasticité de prix.     

FROM CONSUMER CHOICE PROCESS TO AGGREGATE ANALYSIS: MARKETING INSIGHTS FOR MODELS OF MEAT DEMAND

The presence or absence of structural change in meat demand is critical to marketing decision making. If change is present, marketing bodies need to know what underlies the change so that the most appropriate response can be identified. Marketing theory is considered as a possible source of more explicit models of demand which may lead to a better understanding of consumption patterns and structural change.     

THE DEMAND FOR FATS AND OILS IN CANADA

The overall per capita consumption of fats and oils in Canada has shown only a slight upward trend over the last twenty years. The composition of fats and oils consumed, however, has changed drastically. The most noticeable change was the shift from animal fats to oils and fats of vegetable origin. Specific economic variables have played a key role in determining the nature and direction of consumption for each fat and oil product. Most of the consumption demand changes exhibited over the period are explained by corresponding changes in respective prices and income. Demand for all fats and oils remains in the inelastic range. Income growth had a positive effect on the demand for margarine, butter and especially for shortening, but a negative effect on that for lard. The associated nature of demands for these products, as a group of food items, implies that alternative statistical methods of estimation can yield precise and consistent demand parameters. The parameters obtained from the conventional ordinary least squares (OLS) were verified and refined using Zellner's “Seemingly unrelated regressions” (ZSUR) and full information maximum likelihood (FIML). Reliable demand measures are essential prerequisites for effective agricultural policy and planning. Pendants les vingls ans passés, la consommation canadienne globale par habitant des huiles et des graisses n'a montré qu' une légère tendence ascendante. Mais alors, le montant consommé des diverses genres d'huiles et de graisses a changé beaucoup. Le changement le plus remarquable a eu lieu au niveau d'une nouvelle préférence pour les graisses d'origine végétale au lieu des graisses animales. Des variables économiques spécifiques ont fortement déterminé la nature et la direction de la consommation de chaque produit huileux ou graisseux. Presque tous les changements de demande de consommation pendant cette période peuvent être expliqués par des changements correspondants de prix et de revenus. La demande est inélastique pour toutes les huiles et les graisses. l'acroissement des revenus renforce la demande pour le margarine, le beurre et surtout pour la graisse à pâtisserie mais diminue la demande pour le saindue. Puisque la demande pour ces produits alimentaires est liée, des méthodes alternatives d'estimation statistique peuvent rapporter des paramètres de demande précis et consistants. Les paramètres obtenus de la méthode conventionnelle de ‘ordinary least square’ (OLS) ont été vérifiés et raffinés avec celles obtenus par la méthode de ‘Seemingly unrelated regression’ de Zellner (ZSUR) et par la méthode de ‘full information maximum likelihood’ (FIML). Des sûres mesures de demande sont des requis essentiels à la formulation efficace de la politique et de la plani-fication agricole.     

DEMAND ASYMMETRY AND MONEY ILLUSION WITH AN EXAMPLE-MILK

This paper examines the question of an asymmetric response by consumers to equivalent real price movements depending on whether the source of the real price movement is a change in the money price of the product itself or a change in the general price level. This asymmetry is discussed as a special but pervasive case of asymmetry due to limited information in an inflationary environment. A method is developed to capture possible asymmetric responses of this type by consumers with which it is possible to measure the degree of money illusion they exhibit. This method is then applied to the demand for milk using Australian data to show evidence of a considerable degree of money illusion.     

PRICE-LINKED FARM AND SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS

The integration of detailed farm supply models with the basic spatial equilibrium model, is outlined. The direct linking of farm linear programming models with the spatial equilibrium model is achieved so that both prices and quantities are endogenous. Both the farm model and the spatial equilibrium model must be specified in primal-dual form to make the linkages. Limited details of the use of such a model in a study of a segment of the grain handling system in New South Wales are presented along with conclusions relating to the pricing of grain handling services.     

当前早稻市场价格及供求状况分析

在全国稻谷产量已经连续几年减少的大背景下,2003年受高温热害影响,长江中下游地区稻谷产量大幅度下降,粳米供应短缺,需求转向东北粳稻产区。在强大需求的拉动下,全国粳稻价格在去年10月已经出现上扬行情的基础上,于2004年2月份再次出现大幅度的上涨。南方籼稻市场和全国小麦市场又在粳稻价格的拉动下,出现了较大的波动行情。面对全国粮食价格的继续上涨,国家进一步采取促进粮食生产的强有利措施,针对稻谷市场的特殊情况,特别出台了稻谷最低收购价政策。国内早稻市场在2000年已经全部放开,早稻的价格由市场供求决定。在国内稻谷供求出现较大…     

分析预测·近年来我国稻米需求和生产情况

水稻是我国播种面积最大、总产最多、单产最高的粮食品种,在粮食生产和消费中历来处于主导地位。在过去30年中,水稻面积占我国粮食总面积的30%左右,稻谷产量占粮食总产量的40%左右,占谷物总产量的45%左右,占商品粮的50%左右。我国是世界上的水稻生产大国,稻谷面积居世界第二位、总产居第一位、单产居第十位。自1980年以来,我国水稻种植面积约占全球的23%,稻谷产量占全球的30%以上。可以说,稳定了水稻的生产,在很大程度上就稳定了我国的粮食供给;发展了水稻产业,就极大地发展了我国粮食产业。我国稻米消费和需求情况西方国家以小麦消费为主,…     

THE DEMAND FOR MAJOR FRUITS AND VEGETABLES IN CANADA

Little effort to date has been focussed an the analysis of Canadian demand for major fruits. Utilizing unpublished data, the paper begins to fill this major gap, studying the demand for apples, bananas, cherries, peaches, pears, citrus fruits, strawberries, grapes and tomatoes. Projected levels of domestic demand for grapes, apples and peaches are projected to be up by 30–60 percent in 1980 over the 1964-65 base period. With prospects existing also for import substitutions, the future for Canadian producers of these commodities appears even more attractive.
LA DEMANDE CANAD1ENNE DES PR1NCIPAUX FRUITS ET LEGUMES – Peu d'efforts ont été entrepris pour analyser la demande canadienne des principaux fruits. Utilisant des données non publiées, cet article comble cette lacune en étudiant la demande pour les pommes, les bananes, les cerises, les pêches, les poires, les fruits exotiques, les jraises, les raisins et les tomates. Des projections concernant la consommation nationale pour les raisins, les pommes et les pêches indiquent une augmentation de 30 à 60% en 1980 par rapport à la période 1964-65. En même temps que des perspectives intéressantes pour des produits de substitution, I'avenir pour les producteurs canadiens de ces produits apparaît plus attrayant.     

国内玉米供需趋势变化对北京市的影响及对策

我国是世界第二大玉米生产国,玉米产量在我国三大粮食品种中居重要地位。玉米作为原料在我国饲料加工、养殖业、食品、深加工等行业和领域中都发挥着重要的作用。特别是近几年,国家针对经济快速发展、能源供需矛盾突出和主产区农民增收等情况,大力支持玉米深加工行业的发展,推广以玉米为原料加工燃料乙醇等替代成品汽油工程,给玉米主产区,特别是东北玉米产区带来了新的经济增长点。与此同时,也将给以玉米调入为主的销区饲料、养殖业原料来源带来一定影响。特别是对北京市这样大的粮食销区,饲料生产和养殖业对外埠玉米需求量大的省、市来说,…     

MALLEE WHEAT FARMERS' DEMAND FOR CROP AND RAINFALL INSURANCE

Producers' demand for a crop insurance program with indemnities based on their actual yields and a rainfall insurance program with indemnities based on area rainfall is analysed. Actuarial costs of these hypothetical programs are estimated. Tobit procedures are used to analyse factors influencing the amount which farmers would be willing to pay for the alternative insurance programs. Factors related to the absolute size of risk and capacity to bear risk, as well as personal characteristics and risk attitudes of producers, have effects on the demand for insurance as hypothesised. Problems of adverse selection are associated with the area yield-based program, while both crop and rainfall insurance programs may involve some moral hazard. Producer participation in either program would be limited.     

A CROSS-SECTION AND TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF CANADIAN EGG DEMAND

This paper presents information on some of the characteristics of demand for eggs in Canada using cross section and time series approaches. Data from the 1969 Expenditure Survey are analyzed by cross-section to establish responsiveness of egg consumption to income, family structure, and an implicit price index used to designate different quality levels purchased. Monthly producer prices are used to establish estimates of price flexibility, seasonal, U.S. price, breaker market and inventory effects, and a computed index is used to indicate the effect of changes in quality distribution on price. In addition, a model is formulated from the reinforcement theory of habit formation to lest for the existence of inertia! or habitual behavior in egg purchases. The relevance of the results to market regulation is illustrated as well as their application in price forecasting. Cette étude donne des informations sur quelques-uns des charactéristiques de la demande des oeufs au Canada, ce en utilisant des séries chronalogiques el des coupes transversales (cross-section). Les données provenam de ?Etude de la Consommation datum de 1969 soul analysers par coupes transversales (cross-section) afin de déterminer ?effet sur la consommation des oeufs des revenus, des structures familiales ainsi que ?indice des prix implicite servant à désigner ?acquisition des differents niveaux de qualite. Les prix mensuels au producteur sont utilisés afin ?estimer la flexibilité des prix, saisonniers, les prix aux Etats-Unis. les effets du Marché rentable (breaker market) et résultats invemtaires, el un inclice calculé est utilisé pour démontrer ?effet des changements de la distribution des différentes qualités sur les prix. De plus, un modèle est construit à partir de la théorie de renforcemenl des habitules ?achat afin de vérifier ?existence ?un comportement inertial ou habitue! des acheleurs ?oeufs. La pertinence des résultats sur les règlements du Marché est illustré ainsi que leurs applications dans la prévision des prix.