Renminbi＇s Potential to Become a Global Currency

This paper is a tentative endeavor to delineate the potential of the renminbi to become a global currency. It first analyzes the critical economic, financial and policy attributes that are required to support a currency to gain an international role. It then examines whether China has the potential to acquire these attributes. The paper concludes by offering some provisional observations on the implications for Asia and the global economy, should the renminbi evolve into a world currency in the coming decades.     

Renminbi in Ordinary Economies: A Demand‐side Study of Currency Globalization

Most studies of renminbi internationalization focus on the supply side, by examining China's own economic and political conditions. In contrast, this study addresses the demand side of renminbi internationalization, by providing an in‐depth analysis of renminbi use in ordinary foreign economies from both economic and political perspectives, with a particular focus on South Korea, China's next‐door neighbor. The study finds that sustainable indigenous market forces facilitating renminbi use in South Korea remain weak, despite the country's close economic ties with China. This research also shows, however, that the Korean Government has itself recently been able, through its policy measures, to generate new domestic support for greater use of the renminbi. These findings ultimately highlight the significant impact on the internationalization of a currency of the politics in the foreign countries using it.     

China's New International Financial Strategy amid the Global Financial Crisis

The Chinese Government has stepped up its drive to reconstruct its international ftnancial strategy after the sub-prime crisis developed into a global financial crisis in 2008. The main aim of the strategy is to reduce the country＇s dependence on the US dollar in foreign trade, cross-border capital flows and foreign exchange reserve management. The strategy can be divided into three tiers： renminbi internationalization, regional monetary cooperation and reconstruction of the international monetary regime. So far, the Chinese Government has fared well in the application of all three tiers. We hoM that the Chinese Government should continue in the same direction in a coordinated manner despite various challenges it faces.     

Exploring ‘onward-journey’ ODI strategies in China's private sector businesses

Are the internationalization strategies of China's private businesses different from those of state-owned businesses? To date, little systematic empirical research addresses this question, despite the now well-established arguments that market and institutional imperfections influence the outward foreign direct investment (ODI) of China's state sector MNEs. Why is so little known about private sector foreign direct investment? One important reason is that private companies have gone to considerable lengths to conceal their activities by using offshore holding companies in tax havens. This paper, using a sample of offshore listed companies that are privately controlled, investigates what we dub ‘onward-journeying’ – foreign direct investment undertaken via tax havens. In doing so it further explores the ODI strategies of some of China's most successful private companies.     

Note on global dynamics and imbalance effects in the Lucas–Uzawa model

In the traditional literature on the Lucas–Uzawa model, it is proved that in the so‐called normal parametric case, human capital stock grows at a rate greater than its long‐run counterpart in the neighbourhood of the long‐run balanced growth path. We first prove that the claim is true outside the neighborhood of balanced growth paths. More importantly, we identify a crucial asymmetry: whatever the parametric case considered, physical capital stock always grows at a rate lower than its long‐run counterpart when the ratio of physical to human capital is above its long‐run value.     

从亚洲外汇市场演变看人民币国际化进展

在2001—2004期间,亚洲货币的外汇交易量增长比全球市场更加迅速,其中人民币外汇交易增长特别强劲。对人民币未来预期因素似乎正在加入到美元日元即期汇率形成机制中并对亚洲外汇市场施加着重要影响。总体看来,具有更加弹性汇率的亚洲货币将以有效汇率为导向进行交易,美元的影     

Chinese Renminbi Arrival in the “Tripolar” Global Monetary Regime

Since the financial crisis hit in 2007, the US dollar privilege has not only become “exorbitant” but “extortianate.” Countries such as China are no longer willing to allow the USA to exercise this extortionate behavior. The potential geopolitical implications of a US dollar decline are immense. The USA would lose its privileged seigniorage position and with that the ability to achieve permanently higher returns on foreign assets than the returns paid to foreigners who invest in the USA. The global economy is already close to operating with three regional exchange rate anchors: the US dollar; the euro; and, increasingly, the renminbi. Hence, the transition to a tripolar system could occur sooner than many assert. Nevertheless, given the importance of financial deepening and integration in the internationalization of currencies, any shift will still be gradual.     

美国对外直接投资的发展及对我国的启示

从2013年提出“一带一路”合作倡议以来,中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资整体呈较快发展趋势,投资潜力日益凸显。但是总体上当前我国在“一带一路”的对外直接投资（OFDI）还存在着总体规模不大、整体质量有待提升、基础部分尚待夯实等问题。美国是目前世界上最大的对外直接投资国,通过对美国OFDI迅速成长的历史背景、发展历程、成长路径以及成功要素入手分析对中国的启示。     

Sino-US trade balance from national income perspective and global income chains

ABSTRACT

Trade volume biases trade benefits under the background of economic globalization. Employing the input-output technique, important progress has been made in research on trade in value-added. It is noteworthy that capital globalization is one of the important manifestations of economic globalization. Owing to the ever-increasing transnational flow of capital, mainly by foreign direct investment (FDI), production of exports shows great dependence on foreign capital. A large part of value-added in exports are obtained by foreign factors owners, since foreign-invested enterprises account for a large proportion in host country’s total exports, which is foreign income. The ultimate goal of trade is to boost national income. We propose to study trade benefits and trade balance from national income perspective, and further introduce the concept of global income chains to reveal economic benefits distribution within international specialization.     

外商直接投资经济实效与中国企业内向型国际化

从20世纪80年代后半期开始,中国外商投资逐渐进入高成长阶段尤其是自1993年起,中国实际利用外资连续数年在发展中国家居第一位,2002年中国超过美国成为全球吸引外资最多的国家。外资进入中国一方面促进中国经济快速发展,同时也是国内企业走向内向型国际化的过程。企业跨国投资并参与国际竞争,次发达国家的企业与发达国家企业进行国际竞争,并不一定总会处于劣势,尤其是在竞争性的市场上,外资企业不见得比内资企业更有竞争优势。     

The Renminbi as a Trading Currency: Evidence from Selected Countries Participating in the Belt and Road Initiative

This paper investigates the effects of the renminbi (RMB) exchange rate on trade prices and volumes in selected Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries in comparison with the effects of the US dollar. The stylized facts show that the RMB is underused in bilateral trade with selected BRI countries where intermediate goods dominate. By estimating the level of exchange rate pass‐through and trade volume elasticity, we find that the RMB is significantly correlated with the volume of imports in the sample countries, predicted by the producer currency pricing (PCP) paradigm. We also regroup intermediate and final goods between China and the BRI countries. The evidence shows that dollar fluctuation affects export volumes, reflecting the role of the US as a final goods destination, whereas the RMB exerts a significant impact on the volume of intermediate goods imported from China to the sample countries due to China's important position in global value chains.     

Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Industrial Upgrading from the Perspective of Differences among Countries

This paper constructs a two‐sector model to identify the effects of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in different countries on China's industrial upgrading and conducts an empirical analysis using provincial‐level panel data from 2003–2015. The results show that China can benefit from industrial upgrading via OFDI in developed countries by way of reverse technology spillover. This effect is significant in the eastern region, but not in the central and western regions. China can also benefit from industrial upgrading via OFDI in developing countries and countries along the Belt and Road through marginal industrial transfer. This effect is more significant in the central region, followed by the western and eastern regions. Our results imply that China should promote technology‐seeking OFDI in developed countries, and enhance efficiency‐seeking OFDI in developing countries, especially in countries along the Belt and Road.     

A double-edged sword: the impact of institutions and political relations on the international market expansion of Chinese state-owned enterprises

This study examines the interaction of three factors, the involvement of the home country government, of host country institutions and of bilateral political relations, as they affect the post-entry market expansion of Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in emerging, developing and developed countries. This study employs the case study method. The findings show that home country government involvement can either support or constrain SOEs’ subsequent market expansion. In emerging and developing countries, underdeveloped institutions create difficulties which can deter the market expansion of Chinese SOEs. In developed host countries, the challenges associated with unfamiliar institutions can be overcome through experiential learning. The political relations between the host country and China may influence the impact of institutions in the host country on the market expansion of Chinese SOEs.     

China as a Global Manufacturing Powerhouse： Strategic Considerations and Structural Adjustment

This study examines the nature and consequences of China＇s rise to the center of world economic affairs through manufacturing-led development. Our historical analysis shows that China is still well short of the point in its developmental process where its growth might be reasonably expected to slow, or the energy, resource and carbon intensity of growth to recede. The study argues that the current trajectory of industrialization will have to be altered when China becomes more actively engaged in dealing with structural issues at home and abroad against the background of the unwinding of global imbalances. One profitable strategy that China might employ wouM be to approximate the incredibly fruitful mass-market integration efforts of the USA that eventually elevated it to its position of global primacy. The cyclical re-emergence of excess capacity in Chinese heavy industry, serious questions about the medium term ability of other major regions to accommodate further large gains in Chinese market share, and the stark conflict between the contemporary style of industrial development and the health of the biosphere indicate strongly that now is the time to catalyze the required adjustment and reform processes that will underpin sustainable long-run prosperity.     

“凿空之旅”泽万民:“一带一路”对外直接投资如何提高劳动收入份额

文章基于2003-2016年中国上市公司数据,采用倾向得分匹配和双重差分法（PSM-DID）探讨"一带一路"沿线对外直接投资与母国劳动收入份额之间的因果关系。实证发现,企业对外直接投资长期内整体上提高了职工的工资份额。考虑企业所处地区、行业和劳动者的异质性后,结论仍然稳健。具体而言,企业通过对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出提高了创新能力、研发投入和全要素生产率,从而提高了母国职工工资份额。此外,企业的技术进步具有高技能劳动力的偏向性,母国高技能劳动者的工资份额在企业对外直接投资中得以显著提升,但对于母国低技能劳动者的工资份额影响不显著。文章研究发现"一带一路"沿线对外直接投资对母国劳动收入份额的影响机制和具体效应提供了微观证据。     

Market expansion versus cost reduction: a financial analysis of foreign direct investment advantages for multinational enterprises

By testing a large sample of US-based multinational enterprises (MNEs), we attempt to microscope the relations between FDI advantages and excess market value created thereby. Two most commonly pursued FDI advantages—market expansion and cost reduction—come under the analysis. We find that the overseas divisions of US-based MNEs have significant market expansion advantage over the domestic divisions, but do not have significant cost reduction advantage. The cross-sectional variation in excess market value of US-based MNEs finds an explanation in the market expansion advantage when firm equity risk is held constant, but it cannot be explained by the cross-sectional variation in the cost reduction advantage. Given the result of our study, we also deliberate on the relations of FDI advantages with the degree of international involvement by MNEs.     

基于平衡计分法的房地产开发企业绩效评价体系

今年 2月 19日 ,我国改变了B股市场只对外国投资者开放的政策 ,允许境内居民进入B股市场。这一重大决策在广大境内外投资者、各家券商以及众多专家学者中引起了强烈的反响。B股市场缘何开放 ?本文对此进行了分析 ,指出恢复B股市场活力、有效利用我国居民外汇储蓄及实现我国证     

中国投资是东道国内部冲突的抑制剂还是催化剂

随着国家内部冲突取代了国家间战争成为集体政治暴力的主要形式,对内部冲突中国际维度的关注促使人们思考以国际投资为代表的全球化与跨国企业的影响。从理论上看,国际投资可能会引发冲突,也可能会降低冲突发生的可能性。中国虽然是全球第二大对外直接投资(OFDI)国,但研究中国OFDI对东道国内部冲突影响的实证文献几乎没有。作者基于2004—2016年中国对115个发展中国家的直接投资数据,实证研究了中国OFDI对东道国爆发内部冲突的影响及其作用机制。结果显示,中国对发展中国家的OFDI显著降低了当地爆发内部冲突的概率,而全球第一大OFDI国美国对发展中国家的OFDI对当地爆发内部冲突的抑制作用则不明显。在影响机制上,中国对发展中国家的OFDI显著降低了当地的失业率,有助于增加民众参与武装冲突的机会成本,降低叛乱行为的合法性与成功率,进而减少东道国内部冲突的爆发。以上发现体现出中国投资对东道国内部稳定性的贡献。但这并不意味着可以忽视中国企业“走出去”过程中出现的一些问题。     

The impact of exchange rate risk on the foreign direct investment of U.S. multinational manufacturing companies

This paper extends the examination of the effects of exchange rate risk on the foreign direct investment decision of U.S. multinationals in manufacturing. It does so by explicitly developing a model which incorporates exchange rate risk into the objective function of the firm and tests the model on cross-sectional data over the years 1974 to 1977 for investment in both developed and less developed countries. These are the only years for which data on all crucial variables are available. In all cases the risk aversity hypothesis was substantiated and the same model was appropriate for both developed and less developed countries.     

新加坡对华直接投资与中新贸易结构分析

对20世纪90年代中期以来新加坡对华直接投资状况和中国与新加坡的贸易结构进行了分析。分析表明,近年来中新贸易的发展远远超过了新加坡对华直接投资的发展,新加坡对华直接投资逐步向制造业转移,而中新贸易的主要产品也向几种产品集中。随着中国东盟自由贸易区进程的推进这种趋势仍将继续。