增加值视角下金砖国家制造业的贸易利得与竞争力研究

基于贸易增加值核算的基本原理,对金砖五国制造业出口增加值进行分解,同时利用标准显示性竞争指数测算金砖国家制造业竞争力,研究发现：中国的贸易利得与庞大的出口总额严重不匹配,其他金砖四国的贸易利得远远高于中国;对中国、巴西和印度而言,基于国内增加值测算的NRCA值要高于基于出口总额测算的NRCA值,而俄罗斯和南非恰恰相反;金砖五国在低技术制造业上表现出各自的竞争优势,除了中国在电子通信和光学设备制造业及机械制造业有相对的竞争优势外,金砖五国整体上在高技术产业层面与美日德等发达国家存在较大差距。应从培育高级要素、产能合作、共建科技创新体系等方面来提高金砖国家制造业竞争力。     

The role of foreign direct investment in Indonesia's manufacturing exports

This article examines whether foreign direct investment (FDI) has contributed to the changing structure of Indonesia's manufacturing exports. It uses industry-level data from 1990 to 2008, classified by factor intensity. Our analysis reveals that FDI promotes exports in most panel observations, especially exports from physical-capital-intensive (PCI), human-capital-intensive (HCI) and technology-intensive (TI) industries. Yet by applying a differentiated cross-section-effect model, we determine that the export-generating potential of FDI is stronger in PCI, HCI and TI industries than in natural-resource-intensive or unskilled-labour-intensive industries, in which Indonesia has a comparative advantage. We also assess the influence of other determinants of export performance – namely, private domestic capital investment, GDP growth and exchange rates. Our findings have implications for policymakers seeking to sustain Indonesia's export performance.     

Textiles and clothing exports from india and china: a comparative analysis

This paper compares the export performance of the textiles and clothing industries in India and China using the revealed comparative advantage and the Kreinin-Finger similarity indices. The results indicate that China has much higher shares in world exports of both textiles and clothing, while India has a comparative advantage in women's clothing of various sorts and men's shirts. With the abolition of the MFA, China is likely to gain at the expense of India in most items of exports of clothing, even in categories where India has a higher market share than China. India would have to improve her competitive strengths in export markets vis-à-vis China, especially so in high value design oriented products in the EU and the US markets.     

International subcontracting: Improved prospects in manufactured exports for small and very poor LDC's

In recent years one of the most dynamic manufactured export sectors in developing countries has been the assembly and processing operations subcontracted from multinational firms. The paper analyzes this relatively new phenomenon as a possible opportunity for the small and very poor developing countries to increase their manufactured exports. After making a case that domestic size and level of economic development are not preconditions of success in exporting manufactures, it is further argued that small and very poor countries may even have a comparative advantage in international subcontracting. Not only does international subcontracting avoid some of the traditional obstacles which these countries experience in exporting manufactures, but the gains from this activity seem to be particularly beneficial to them.     

我国创意产业中的国际分工研究——基于典型发达国家和发展中国家的比较分析

本文分析我国创意产业中的国际分工,并与典型的发达国家和发展中国家进行对比.结果发现,我国创意产业的出口贸易总额及比重占据世界第一,远远超过了所研究的主要发达国家和发展中国家;我国创意商品贸易的比较优势与国际竞争力也远远领先于其他发达国家和发展中国家;但是,更进一步的分析揭示我国创意商品的出口主要集中于劳动密集型、低创意...     

中国对外贸易模式经验研究——"母市场效应"vs.比较优势效应

中国的出口增长既有要素比较优势的动因,又存在制造业部门对外贸易"母市场效应"这一动因.本文采用MacCallum(1995)的方法,做了中国对108个国家2001～2008年出口面板数据的随机效应回归分析.结果显示,市场规模和出口存在显著正相关关系,市场规模的扩大会导致出口以更大比例增长.本文提出一个融合"母市场效应"...     

FDI流入对中国出口品技术结构变化的影响——一个动态面板数据分析

本文在理论考量的基础上,依据2002～2008年间中国不同技术类型的出口品数据,通过动态面板数据模型,针对中国FDI实际流入总量及分国别FDI流入量对中国出口品技术结构变化的影响进行了实证分析,并根据实证结果对流入中国的FDI的主要类型进行了判断。经分析发现,在样本期间,FDI能够有效地促进中国出口品技术结构的多样化,但对出口品技术结构的优化作用并不理想。其中,来自亚洲四小龙、中国澳门和日本的FDI对出口品技术结构存在较大影响,这在一定程度上反映了现有东亚分工体系对中国的影响;可以判断,当前流入中国的FDI主要是垂直型和出口平台型。基于此,本文提出了相应的政策建议。     

Exports of manufactures by developing countries: emerging patterns of trade and location

Developing countries are rapidly increasing their shares ofmanufactured trade, not just in labour-intensive products, butalso in capital- and skill-intensive ones; their shares arerising particularly rapidly in the high-technology area. However,manufactured exports remain highly concentrated in the developingworld, with a few countries dominating all forms of export.Within the successful exporting countries, there are significantdifferences in the 'technology content' of exports. These trendsare difficult to explain with received trade theory, even takinghuman capital into account, or with reference to broad economicpolicies: it is useful to bring in 'learning', along with scaleeconomies, increasing returns, and agglomeration as determinantsof comparative advantage. These factors imply market failures,and so a role for policy in developing genuine comparative advantages.This article suggests that emerging trade and location patternsin the developing work are explained by market imperfectionsand government policies to overcome them.     

Comparative advantage FDI? A host country perspective

Recent empirical studies of the determinants of multinational activity across countries have found overwhelming support for a horizontal rather than a vertical model of foreign direct investment (FDI). They all use US or other developed country data. This paper, in contrast, uses a detailed industry-level data set on FDI in a relatively skilled-labor and capital scarce country, Mexico, to shed light on the determinants of FDI between largely dissimilar countries. The results indicate considerably more support for a comparative advantage motive for FDI, although a market access motive is present as well. The correlation between skill differences and FDI is positive in all industries, but when differences are large, FDI flows into sectors that are intensive in total labor, regardless of skill level. The concentration of multinational activity in (unskilled) labor intensive industries suggests a potential for spillover effects.     

Is there a link between BRIC foreign direct investment and SADC export performance?

The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries have agreed to strengthen their economic ties, thus paving the way for enhanced trade and investment performance. South Africa's strategic value in BRICS is that it is a gateway to the opportunity-rich Southern African Development Community (SADC). By using South Africa as a production hub for exports to the surrounding region, foreign investors would have ready access to neighbouring markets. This article addresses the question of whether, and in what ways, foreign direct investment (FDI) from the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries to the SADC influences the SADC's export performance. A series of empirical analyses revealed a positive causation between BRIC FDI and SADC exports, offering a clear incentive for the SADC to rejuvenate its trade and investment policies and structures, and strengthen its ties with BRIC countries in the interests of attracting more FDI and building a strong and sustainable export sector.     

中国与墨西哥加工贸易比较分析

中国自加入WTO后在美国市场进口品的占有率方面和一些产业的竞争力上已经超过了墨西哥,但中国整体出口产品价格低于墨西哥同类产品,预示着中国出口产业包括品质在内的整体竞争力略逊于墨西哥。另外,在汽车等相关产业的竞争力方面仍然无法与墨西哥抗衡。随着中国劳动力价格的逐步上涨和人民币升值等情况的出现,中国加工贸易必须进行转型升级,否则有可能在这方面被墨西哥等国家所取代。     

How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect the Export Decisions of Firms in Ghana?

Abstract: Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been identified to promote exports of host countries by augmenting domestic capital for exports, helping to transfer technology and new products for exports, facilitating access to new and large foreign markets, providing training for the local workforce, and upgrading technical and management skills. However, little is known on the role of FDI in the export behaviour of firms in developing countries. The main questions raised in this study are: how does FDI affect the export decisions of firms? How does FDI affect export performance of firms? This study examined the export‐decision and export performance within the Ghanaian manufacturing sector on a panel of plants from 1991 to 2002. Using a probit model, the results show that FDI has a positive effect on firms' decision to export. The random effect results also reveal a positive relationship between FDI and export performance. Clearly, the results of this study indicate that FDI is very relevant in influencing the export decisions and export performance of Ghanaian firms. The findings have significant implications for policy in terms of promoting initiatives to encourage more FDI inflows in the country.     

R&D,trade in intermediate inputs,and the comparative advantage of advanced countries

This paper examines the accumulation of physical capital versus knowledge (R&D) capital as a determinant of advanced countries’ comparative advantage. I show that advanced countries are abundant in R&D resources, specialize in knowledge-intensive stages of high-technology industries, and outsource labor-intensive stages of the industries to labor-abundant countries. In contrast, global data on production and trade cannot support the conventional view that advanced countries specialize in and export capital-intensive goods. My results indicate that the accumulation of knowledge capital plays a vital role in explaining advanced countries’ comparative advantage.     

Promoting exports: the role of inward FDI in China

Since the late 1970s, exports and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in China have risen dramatically under the open-door policy. The critical role of FDI in China's exports may be indicated by the fact that exports by foreign affiliates in China in 1998 were US$81 billion, comprising 44% of China's total exports in that year. While there is considerable evidence on the FDI export linkage in China, systematically empirical analyses have been limited. This paper investigates the issue using panel data at the provincial level in the period of 1986–1997. The findings support the widely held belief that increased levels of FDI positively affect provincial manufacturing export performance.     

中国仅仅是制造大国吗——基于出口增加值测算角度

文章从出口增加值测算角度,对1995-2011年中国出口中的制造和服务含量进行分析。结果表明:（1）中国服务出口总值基本赶上甚至一度超越了制造出口总值,中国同样也是"服务大国",其中由制造业间接出口的服务含量超过了由服务业直接出口的服务含量;（2）中国服务出口的国内增值能力弱于制造出口,日本、韩国、美国、中国台湾、德国等发达国家或地区是中国出口价值的主要外部来源地,中国本土的制造和服务在全球化分工中需要实现自我提升;（3）中国产品在主要进口市场所占份额整体上呈现出上升趋势,相比国际服务市场,中国产品在国际制造市场上拥有更大的覆盖面和影响力。文章的研究为制造和服务产业融合发展提供了新的理论和数据支撑。     

Looking into global value chains: influence of foreign services on export performance

Using data from the OECD Inter-Country Input–Output database, we explore the impact of foreign services value added content of exports on export performance, specifically on duration of trade. Our data show that the share of foreign services content in manufacturing exports grows from 1995 to 2011, in a way similar to foreign goods content, and in contrast to the decreasing share of domestic services. Moreover, the share of foreign services value added content is larger for developing and emerging countries than for advanced countries. Our econometric findings confirm that foreign services value added embodied in manufacturing exports contribute positively to more resilient exports relationships, a positive effect which occurs for the three groups of manufacturing industries (high, medium and low technology industries) and, for each group, it is more pronounced for developing and emerging economies.     

International trade and agricultural production: Evidence from the Southern African Development Community sub-region

Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries have undertaken substantial reforms in market liberalisation policies and regional integration initiatives. Theory suggests that trade can affect output through the exploitation of comparative advantage, increasing return to scale, liberalisation policies and technology. This work investigates the impact of agricultural exports to, machinery and chemical imports from and tariffs on agricultural products by total partners to the Southern African Customs' Union, SADC, sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world on agricultural production. Following Hausman tests, three panel fixed-effect models are estimated. The first is for aggregate machinery imports, chemicals imports and agricultural exports. The second is for disaggregated exports and imports according to the respective destination and source regions above. The third is for aggregate imports and disaggregated tariffs implemented by the various export destination regions toward the SADC. The results agree with the theory that international trade is good for development. Agricultural market expansion through export opportunities and access to inputs are significant sources of agricultural production enhancement in the SADC region. Tariffs barriers to agricultural exports are found to be significant impediments to agricultural production. However, the disparity of effects by export destination and the insignificance of the impact of trade with the rest of Africa are worth emphasising.     

Dynamic products in world exports

The values of three product categories have grown most rapidly in world exports during the period 1980–2000: electrical and electronic goods (including parts and components for such goods), goods from other technology-intensive industries, and labour-intensive products, particularly clothing. A strong geographical concentration at both regional and country levels is discernable regarding the origin of these products from developing countries. There appears to be a sustained movement in world exports towards the growing significance of a limited number of products and it would seem that there has been a rapid and sustained technological upgrading in the export composition of developing countries. However, since the involvement of developing countries is usually limited to the labour-intensive stages in the production process of technology-intensive goods in the context of international production sharing, simple measures of growth in gross export values are poor guides for an assessment of the nature of participation of developing countries in world trade.     

中国制造业出口贸易的技术结构分布及其国际比较

借鉴Lall(2000)及OECD(2008)的方法,利用1995～2006年三位数《标准国际贸易分类》数据,本文分析了中国制造业出口贸易的技术结构分布,并与世界主要国家和地区进行了比较。研究发现:(1)从贸易统计上看,中国制造业出口的技术结构已经由低技术制造业转向了高技术制造业。(2)与日本、美国和德国等世界主要发达国家以汽车、化工和机械等中技术制成品出口为主不同,中国的出口主要集中在低技术制成品和高技术制成品,其中低技术制成品以纺织、皮革和鞋类为主,而高技术制成品则以信息和通信技术产品为主。(3)中国出口贸易的技术结构与发展中经济体更为相似,特别是向亚洲新兴工业经济体不断趋同;与发达经济体的差异虽然较大,但正迅速向其趋同。由于中国高技术产品的出口贸易主要依靠外资企业和加工贸易,中国出口贸易的技术结构分布和贸易竞争力可能被夸大了。     

知识产权保护、行业特征与我国制造业出口比较优势

文章旨在分析知识产权保护能否成为我国制造业出口新的比较优势,利用我国1992-2012年对140个国家或地区的24个制造业行业的出口数据实证检验了三个理论命题。研究发现,知识产权保护对制造业出口比较优势的影响存在门槛,当知识产权保护程度跨过“知识产权保护门槛”后,知识产权保护与行业特征的协同效应才能有利于形成新的出口比较优势;从R&D投入强度、专属性投资强度以及关键要素投入强度三个方面,把我国24个制造业行业分为高行业特征和低行业特征分别进行估计后得到不同结论,低R&D投入强度和低关键要素投入强度制造业行业中,知识产权保护与行业特征的协同作用显著的有利于我国对贸易伙伴出口的增长,相反则不利于我国对贸易伙伴出口的增长。从我国出口方向来看,知识产权保护与产业特征的协同作用,对知识产权保护程度高于我国的地区来说,不能够显著提升出口比较优势。