East and South Asia: Managing Difficult Bilateral Relations and Regional Integration Globally

This paper analyzes the economic integration of the East and South Asian economies in the global economy. East Asian economies are shown to be achieving much more of their potential trade than South Asian economies, both in terms of intra‐regional trade and in trade with the rest of the world. Examination of the China–Japan, India–Pakistan and Taiwan–mainland China bilateral relationships shows that integration of these economies into the global economy has allowed economic relations to dominate and constrain difficult bilateral political relations in East Asia while in South Asia adverse political relations have hampered development of bilateral economic relationships.     

China： Unscathed through the Global Financial Tsunami

This paper investigates the reasons behind the resilience of China＇s economy to the global financial tsunami. China ＇s economy is lowly leveraged in its banking, household, public and external sectors and, therefore, is less plagued by the global deleveraging than most developed economies. Chinese domestic sectors have improved significantly over the past decade, giving them larger capacity to cope with external shocks than during the Asian financial crisis a decade ago. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that China＇s economic growth is highly dependent on exports, we find that the main growth engine for China is domestic demand. Destocking, rather than falling exports, was the main cause of the sharp economic slowdown in China in late 2008 and early 2009. Therefore, the global economic slowdown should have limited impact on China＇s economy. We forecast a sustained eeonomic recovery in China in 2009-2011, with real GDP growth exceeding 10 percent in 2010.     

亚太区域经济一体化发展趋势与中国的策略选择

本文介绍亚太地区经济体参与区域经济一体化的现状,并系统总结了亚太经济体参与区域经济一体化的特征,分析了亚太经济一体化的发展趋势。作为亚太经济一体化的主要利益攸关方,中国需尽早制定对策以应对亚太区域经济一体化的发展。     

How will growth in China and India affect the world economy?

China and India are rapidly growing, labor-abundant economies with very different export mixes. China is more integrated into global production sharing for manufactures, while services exports are more important for India. Even assuming India integrates more comprehensively into global production chains, there will be opportunities for rapid growth in both countries. Improvement in the range and quality of their exports can create substantial welfare benefits for the world, and for China and India, and can offset the terms-of-trade losses otherwise associated with rapid export growth. Most countries will need to respond to increased competition in some sectors, and to greater opportunities in others.     

What India Can Learn from China and Vice Versa

A partial convergence of the Indian and Chinese growth models is likely. Judging from China's experience, sustaining India's impressive economic performance of recent years will require a significant further opening of its economy (externally and internally), higher savings and investments, especially in physical infrastructure and social services, and stronger labor absorption in the modern sectors. The base of India's current economic boom - software, IT-related services and high-end manufacturing - is narrow compared to China's. Poor performance in agriculture is responsible for still significant poverty in many parts of rural India. Bilateral India-China ties, including trade and investment, are increasing rapidly and could help to bring about the structural economic changes India needs. Through its exports to China, India is becoming linked to global supply chains centered on China. The notion that India-China relations are, or are bound to become, fundamentally antagonistic, held by many in the USA, is mistaken and potentially dangerous.     

Japan's economic slowdown and its global implications: a review of the economic modelling

Despite its role as a driver of global economic growth through the 1970s, in recent decades the rise of China has seen the international importance of Japan's economic performance recede from the public discourse. This is notwithstanding its continuing key role as economic partner to both industrial and developing countries and changes in its economic performance that would otherwise be a matter for global concern. In particular, the tendency for the Japanese economy and its external trade to stagnate not only has immediate consequences for global performance but also foreshadows a path to industrial transition for other key Asian economies. This paper reviews quantitative studies of Japan's performance. It identifies a paucity of results addressing global implications and suggests new research in this direction.     

Past Successes and New Challenges： China＇s Foreign Trade at a Turning Point

Since 1979, China has recorded a remarkable trade performance, which has been driven by international processing and the offshoring strategies of foreign firms. The diversification of Chinese exports and their technological upgrading have been phenomenal However, there is also inertia, illustrated by the persistent dualism of the trade sector, the unrelenting specialization in downmarket products and the deteriorating terms of trade. These weaknesses have helped its partners to adjust to the rise of this new trade power. In the past decade, China＇s economy has faced the adverse effects o fan export-led growth and the global crisis has revealed its vulnerability. China is now forced to rebalance its economy. This will imply major changes in foreign trade, in favor of ordinary trade and away from processing. In the foreseeable future, China is unlikely to become the driver of international demand but will remain the engine of Asian economic integration.     

The price and income elasticities of the top clothing exporters: Evidence from a panel data analysis

This paper studies the main export function features of twelve top clothing exporters (China, Hong Kong, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Turkey, UK and USA) in the period between 1992 and 2011. Price and income elasticities are estimated for each economy using a panel data approach, after controlling for nonstationarity, cointegration and Granger causality. Rolling regressions are also performed, and show the existence of some elasticities instability over time, fundamentally related to the profound economic and institutional changes affecting the clothing trade in the period under consideration. The analysis suggests that most advanced economies, including Hong Kong, changed their position in the global value chain towards an “organizational” role. China confirms its leadership in clothing exports although its rising price elasticity sounds a warning with regard to future prospects.     

Remedy or Poison: Impacts of China's Outward Direct Investment on Its Exports

During the past decade, China's outward direct investment (ODI) and exports have experienced rapid growth, drawing increasing attention to the relationship between them. Using the gravity model based on panel data on China's ODI and trade to 174 countries and regions during 2003–2012, the present paper investigates the impacts of China's ODI on exports. We find that China's ODI to a host country significantly promotes China's trade with that economy: a 10‐percent increase in ODI stock can lead to a 2.14‐percent increase in exports, a 2.07‐percent increase in imports and a 2.87‐percent increase in net exports. The scale of the host country's economy, its infrastructure and its distance to China also have significant impacts on China's exports. Therefore, growth in ODI will facilitate China's trade and integration into the global economy, and enhance industrial upgrading in China by transferring the low‐end industries abroad.     

A comprehensive economic partnership between India and Japan: Impact,prospects and challenges

This paper examines the benefits and challenges of the 2011 Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Japan, specifically the ways to maximize gains from their complementary economies, trade and FDI relations. It also measures the partnership's economy-wide impact empirically, and its role in regional and global integration. An analysis of the trade intensity indices shows that the bilateral trade flow is small considering the other country's importance in world trade, suggesting the existence of great potential for improving trade relations. The computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of the economy wide impact of the CEPA suggests that tariff reductions will create a marginal increase in output growth for both India and Japan as compared to the business as usual scenario. In terms of the effect on exports, India's exports to Japan would increase more than those of Japan to India while positive net welfare gains are expected for both countries as a result of trade liberalization. This is in contrast to the study by Ahmed (2010), which finds welfare gains only for Japan, not for India. Furthermore, one of the striking results of the paper is that Japan will not reduce its heavy reliance on the Chinese market, though India will. In general, India, compared to Japan, will gain more, if CEPA materializes by 2020. Japan too will have welfare gains in spite of opening up the agriculture sector with 100% tariff reduction by 2020. Both countries need to accelerate structural reforms to remove the border barriers in addition to reducing tariffs, in order to reap maximum benefit of their economic partnership.     

后危机时期中国出口形势分析及应对策略

随着中国经济越来越深地融入到经济全球化当中,本世纪的此次重大全球性的金融危机自然对中国经济,尤其是对中国出口造成诸多困难。在经济回暖刚刚出现,外需市场依然疲弱的局势下,中国出口面临什么样的机遇和挑战成为人们所关注的问题。所以,通过对中国外向型企业的竞争能力、主要产品特点和国际贸易政策走向进行客观分析,可以正确认识中国出口形势,有利于稳定和促进外需。     

A general equilibrium analysis of FDI growth in Chinese services sectors

This paper analyzes one of the features of the Chinese economic transition, namely, the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) accruing to advanced services sectors. To that aim we use an innovative computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that includes, in a multi-regional setting, foreign multinationals operating in monopolistic competition. The model is based on data that split the world economy in 2016 into 11 regions (China - US - EU27 - Great Britain -other advanced economies - India - Japan - South East Asia - Latin America - Middle East - Sub Saharan Africa) and 21 sectors. We provide quantitative evidence on several characteristics of the 21 sectors in China, EU27 and the US, as well as other data on the role of China in the global stage, including its evolution since 2004. Several scenarios focusing on the increase of FDI inflows in services, because of the reduction of its FDI barriers, are simulated deriving short and long run results. We find that the impact of more foreign multinationals in services is positive for China but smaller than the one that had been obtained in other previous studies on FDI in manufactures. This is due to the still limited role of services in the Chinese economy and to a crowding out effect that domestic firms experience after the entry of foreign multinationals. On the whole the impact is, however, slightly positive for China, because manufactures benefit from the entry of foreign services multinationals. The rest of regions are unaffected or benefit very slightly, due to the fact that services production is less export oriented and more devoted to private consumption than in the case of manufactures. However, their manufacturing sectors are slightly harmed by the stronger Chinese competition. Many of them manage to more than offset this latter trend through higher exports or FDI in services directed to China.     

印度现代化发展对中国的启示

近年来,"印度巨人,印度虎,21世纪属于印度"等提法不断地进入我们的眼帘。的确,印度半个多世纪的现代化进程取得了显著的成就,有很多成功的经验值得中国借鉴。印度的现代化不仅抓住了机遇,选准了突破口,大力发展软件业,而且历届政府高度重视,更为重要的是印度注重科教兴国,奉行精英主义。     

全球变革中的中国金融

金融危机加剧世界格局变化和国际战略调整,21世纪是全球化和多极化的世纪,是创新、竞争和民主的世纪,是新国家主义盛行的世纪,美国仍将是最强大的国家。中国需要在大历史、大变革、大挑战的国际背景中思考发展战略,需要加快发展现代金融,建立现代金融体制,提高核心竞争力。     

中印两国在亚太经济发展中作用的共性研究

本文认为.中国和印度在亚太地区经济发展中的作用既有共性也有差异性。本文对两国作用的共性作一探析。研究显示,两国作用的共性表现为中印在亚太经济发展中均具有大国意识、作用意识和理念、相同的作用方式和领域,这表明对21世纪初的亚太经济的认知与把握,还需要对中印两国在亚太经济发展中作用问题展开研究。     

建设冀东经济区 应对国际金融危机

此次波及全球的金融危机破坏严重,资本市场大幅动荡,多家重量级金融机构陷入破产困境,且对实体经济产生了不利影响。世界各主要经济体纷纷进入经济下行周期。在全球经济一体化的今天,中国经济必然受到金融危机的影响。河北省作为中国的一个经济大省,如何应对金融危机是摆在决策者面前的一个重要课题。本文在科学认识国际金融危机的基础上,提出着力建设冀东经济区,来减轻金融危机对经济社会的冲击和负面作用,保证社会经济平稳运行,并打造河北经济新的增长极。     

略论长江三角洲地区产业结构调整

进入21世纪,中国进入新一轮经济增长期,长江三角洲地区经济发展势头依旧强劲,但是这一地区也存在着产业结构雷同、专业化系数不高、产业自主创新机制不完善等问题,已经严重阻碍了该地区经济发展质量的进一步提升.针对上述问题,长江三角洲地区应该通过建立区域协调机制,协同整合地区规划,加强合作,合理分工,实现地区经济又好有快发展.     

China–Japan–United States integration amid global rebalancing: A computable general equilibrium analysis

Using a global general equilibrium trade model, this paper assesses the long-term implications of global rebalancing for Asian economies and explores the benefits of China–Japan–United States (US) integration. The analysis suggests that consumption evaporation, a growth slowdown in the US, and the consequent current account correction would force China, Japan, and other East Asian economies to undergo substantial structural adjustments. A combination of domestic reform aimed at boosting service sector productivity and external liberalization aimed at fostering broader economic integration will be critical for East Asian economies to facilitate their economic rebalancing and sustained growth. Our global computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis suggests that China and Japan need to strengthen their economic ties with the US while at the same time bringing other East Asian economies into this integration process.     

Linking, de-linking and re-linking: Southeast Asia in the global economy in the twentieth century

This paper examines how links between the economies of Southeast Asia and the world economy have changed over the twentieth century, paying particular attention to growth in commodity exports, investment flows and international migration. Most parts of Southeast Asia expanded their links with the global economy in the latter part of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, but the years from 1940 to 1965 saw a decline in Southeast Asia's share of tropical exports, and of direct foreign investment. Migration flows also slowed. Over the last four decades of the twentieth century, international links expanded again, but there have been marked variations between countries.     

立足台湾、深耕大陆、布局全球——从经济全球化的角度,看台湾可持续的经济发展

台湾的经济发展是以出口拉动经济增长的出口扩张政策为主轴,利用全球市场的规模经济效应,使台湾经济持续增长。本文从全球贸易发展趋势、台商对大陆投资及两岸贸易进展趋势等三个宏观经济层面来分析探讨面对急速崛起的大陆经济,台湾企业全球布局的战略思维。