New evidence about regional income divergence in China

There are many empirical studies trying to test if there is income convergence across the provinces of China. In this paper, we bring new information to the current literature by applying non-linear panel unit root test of Exponential Smooth Auto-Regressive Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ESTAR-ADF) unit root test developed by Cerrato et al. (2008) to the time series data for the period 1952–2003. The number of converging provinces decreases in the post-reform period when using panel ESTAR-ADF test. Furthermore, our results find evidence of increasing regional disparity that has been prevailing in China since the open door economic reforms of the late 1970s, which confirms the view of Pedroni and Yao (2006) that interprovincial inequalities have been widening since 1978.In addition, we also examine the determinants of conditional convergence in China. The results indicate that low inflation, transport and telecommunication infrastructure, and trade openness could stimulate economic growth in China. Human capital also play a significant role in growth, and it exhibits non-linearity between human capital and growth in the sense that at low levels of human capital the effect on growth is negative and became positive at middle levels.     

人力资本对我国对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应的影响——基于省际面板数据的非线性门槛回归技术

本文使用中国30个省份2003-2008年的面板数据,研究了不同人力资本水平下对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出对各地区全要素生产率的影响。实证结果说明:它们之间存在显著的人力资本双门槛效应。只有在人力资本跨越了10.5038这一门槛时对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应才显著存在,未跨越这一门槛值的省份,人力资本对对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应的吸收有负面影响;而人力资本跨越50.4804的少数省份,对外直接投资渠道的逆向技术溢出对全要素生产率的正面影响略低。     

How Does Trade Openness Affect Regional Demographic Transitions? Evidence from China's Provincial Panel Data

This paper investigates the effect of trade openness and other variables on the demographic transition in China using the instrumental variables regression method based on provincial panel data for the period between 1981 and 2013. The results indicate that trade openness is one of the determinants of China's demographic transition and has two distinct effects: (i) an income effect that accelerated the demographic transition by increasing per capita income; and (ii) a human capital effect that suppressed the demographic transition by reducing human capital accumulation. The effects of trade on demographic transition vary across different regions. This study identifies the important determinants of demographic transition in China's regions, and has rich policy implications for demographic transition and the upgrading of trade structure.     

R＆D投入、人力资源开发与跨国公司R＆D投资——来自省际数据的实证分析

本文在搜集省际层面相关数据基础上，运用计量方法，构建了R＆D投入、人力资源开发对跨国公司R＆D投资影响的计量分析模型。回归分析结果显示：R＆D投入强度、人力资源开发状况对跨国公司R＆D投资具有显著的正影响。政策含义在于吸引跨国公司R＆D投资应当增加我国自身R＆D投入，加大人力资源开发力度。     

Human capital estimates in China: New panel data 1985–2010

We introduce new provincial level panel data on human capital in China from 1985 to 2010. Our estimation of human capital is based on the Jorgenson–Fraumeni lifetime income approach modified to fit the Chinese data, thereby allowing a more comprehensive measurement of human capital than traditional partial measurements, such as education. Our provincial data are adjusted for purchasing power parity via a living-cost index as well as for real values so that all values are comparable across the provinces and time. We discuss various characteristics of the data, including total human capital, per capita human capital, and labor force human capital, which in turn are disaggregated based on gender and urban or rural location. Our human capital estimates are compared with the provincial physical capital estimates and provincial GDP. As an illustration, we also use the data to estimate a production function and to decompose China's economic growth from physical capital, human capital, and TFP. Our results, compared with those that use traditional specifications, reassure us as to the reliability of our new China human capital data.     

Spatial spillovers of regional wages: Evidence from Chinese provinces

This study investigates the effects of spatial interactions on local wages based on a panel data from 31 Chinese provinces between 2001 and 2010. Using the Global Moran's I statistic, we provide empirical evidence for the presence of spatial dependencies in provincial wages. Then, we estimate the provincial wage equation using a spatial panel model that controls for spatial heterogeneity and spatial interdependence as well as other regional characteristics. The empirical results show that spatial wage spillover plays an important role in the determination of local wages. Furthermore, we find that human capital and economic growth are two underlying forces strengthening wage spillovers across provinces.     

贸易开放与经济增长:基于政策协调效果的实证研究

本文采用我国30个省市的面板数据,实证研究了贸易开放是否与其他配套性政策形成有效协调,从而共同作用于我国的经济增长。第一类配套性政策指标包括人力资本、金融发展水平、物价稳定、基础设施建设与研发投入等5种宏观经济因素;第二类配套性指标包括政府与市场关系、产品市场发育度、要素市场发育度、法制环境等5种市场化进程指数。结果发现,物价稳定、市场化进程与我国贸易开放形成了较好的政策互补,同时人力资本、金融发展等其他指标并未与贸易开放形成有效结合。     

Key Factors of Recent Chinese Provincial Economic Growth

The aim of this paper is to analyse the factors that affected Chinese provincial economic growth after the reforms of the early 1980s, through a panel analysis (period 1986–2001). The production function approach focuses on human capital, ‘space-serving’ infrastructure, sectoral allocation of labour and institutional changes. Indices relevant for the analysis are elaborated and provincial capital stocks are estimated. The empirical results indicate the positive role of capital stock, human capital and physical infrastructure and underline that sectoral allocation of labour and institutional changes affected the level of aggregate output. A redistribution policy in favour of the inland provinces needs to be implemented so that human capital and infrastructure can be enhanced, bottlenecks can be overcome and investment can be attracted.     

数字贸易、产业结构升级与出口技术复杂度——基于结构方程模型的多重中介效应

提升出口技术复杂度能显著提升中国创新能力,而发展数字贸易是促进中国出口技术复杂度提升的重要途径。研究数字贸易的影响因素以及数字贸易通过哪些途径对中国出口技术复杂度产生影响,是理顺数字贸易与出口技术复杂度之间关系的关键任务。利用中国30个省(区、市)的数据,使用结构方程模型和中介效应检验方法,分析了数字贸易综合竞争力对中国出口技术复杂度的影响,结果发现:信息化水平、政府科技支出占比、进出口贸易、劳动生产率通过数字贸易对出口技术复杂度产生显著的间接效应,但政府科技支出对中国数字贸易综合竞争力的影响最小;数字贸易通过人力资本对出口技术复杂度产生显著的间接效应,R&D强度在数字贸易与出口技术复杂度之间起中介作用;数字贸易通过R&D强度对中国产业结构升级产生显著的间接效应,其对产业结构的作用能通过人力资本、R&D强度进行传导。因此,要加快推动数字贸易高质量发展,大力提升信息化水平,不断提升政府科技支出对数字贸易综合竞争力的促进作用。     

生产性服务业集群对外贸出口的影响——基于山东、江苏、上海、浙江、福建、广东经验数据

文章选择了出口贸易额较大(约占全国80%)的六个省市的面板数据作为研究对象,对六省市生产性服务业集群对出口贸易额的影响进行了实证研究。结果表明:生产性服务业集群对出口额的增长有促进作用,生产性服务业中的交通运输、仓储和邮政业、信息传输、计算机和软件业、金融业的产业集群对各省市出口贸易的发展有较大的影响。在此基础上,文章建议通过发展生产性服务业的产业集群促进出口的增长。     

Innovation,Technology Transfer and Labor Productivity Linkages: Evidence from a Panel of Manufacturing Industries

The paper explores the linkages between labour productivity, innovation and technology spillovers in a panel of manufacturing industries. The roles of R&D, human capital and international trade are considered in stimulating innovation and/or facilitating technology transfer. Using panel-based unit root tests and cointegration analysis, the results indicate the existence of a single long-run equilibrium relation between labour productivity, innovation and technology transfer. Further, R&D, trade and human capital have statistically and, especially the latter, quantitatively important effects on labour productivity both directly via innovation and indirectly as they enhance technology diffusion. JEL no.  C23, L60, O30     

Globalization and deindustrialization: Myth and reality in the OECD

Globalization and Deindustrialization: Myth and Reality in the OECD. — Has global integration adversely impacted workers in the US and Europe? The expansion of trade and other linkages with the South has been blamed for a multitude of ills in the North, including the contraction of manufacturing employment. Utilizing panel data for OECD countries, this paper examines the relationship between “deindustrialization” and differential productivity growth, Dutch disease, human capital accumulation and trade flows. Empirical results indicate there is a statistically and economically significant link between imports from the South and the manufacturing share of employment and real value added, even after controlling for other plausible causes of deindustrialization.     

The Determinants of High-Technology Exports: A Panel Data Analysis

This paper uses a panel dataset from 1980 to 2008 to examine the determinants of high-technology exports. This research finds evidence that human capital, inflows of foreign direct investments, and openness to international trade are the major factors impacting the performance of a country's high-tech industry in the global market. It also shows that institutions do not have a direct impact on high-tech exports. However, institutions might impact high-tech exports indirectly via their effect on proximate factors such as human capital and inflows of foreign direct investments. This paper also demonstrates that gross capital formation, savings, and macroeconomic volatility have no significant effect on high-tech exports.     

贸易开放是否改善了能源效率:基于省区间比较优势非线性的实证分析

我国作为能源消费大国和对外贸易大国,能源消费与经济增长的矛盾日益凸显,成为了我国在实现可持续发展目标的过程中的新难题。本文运用了Antweiler等提出的理论模型,使用31个省份1995-2008年的数据、采用面板固定效应进行计量回归,探讨贸易自由化与我国各省份的能源消费情况的关系。结果显示,对外贸易通过规模、技术和结构效应对能源的消费产生了程度和效果各异的影响。其中,贸易引致的结构效应则由各省的比较优势所决定并通过对外贸易影响当地的能源消费情况及变化趋势。     

中国出口贸易垂直专业化的地区差异及其影响因素

本文采用2002～2008年中国省级面板数据,计算了各地区出口贸易的垂直专业比重,并在此基础上实证分析了垂直专业化的影响因素。研究结果显示,中国出口贸易的垂直专业化存在着明显的地区差异,东部与中西部地区之间的差异尤为突出。工业基础、人力资本、对外开放度、服务业水平对垂直专业化水平的影响显著为正,工资水平和自然资源变量系数均显著为负,这些因素也是造成中国出口贸易垂直专业化地区差距的主要原因。     

外商直接投资与中国技术效率增进——基于随机前沿生产模型的经验分析

本文首先运用了超越对数生产函数形式的随机前沿模型对中国各省市的技术效率进行了测算,然后在控制市场化程度、人力资本的情况下,检验了服务业FDI和制造业FDI对各省市技术效率的长短期效应,并分析了其区域间差异。本文发现:(1)在短期,服务业FDI会促进我国各省市技术效率水平的提高,而制造业FDI则具有显著的抑制作用;但从长期看,制造业FDI会产生明显的正向技术溢出效应,而服务业FDI则会抑制我国技术效率的提高。(2)两类FDI影响技术效率的长短期效应在不同地区和全国的情况并无差异,不过,东部地区的外资对技术效率的短期效应和长期累积效应都要比中西部地区明显一些。(3)人力资本存量的增加可以显著提高各省市技术效率。对外开放程度、金融市场化程度以及劳动力市场化程度的提高也会对各省市的技术效率产生积极影响。     

An analysis on technical efficiency in post-reform China

This paper employs a fully nonparametric stochastic frontier model with time and individual effects to study technical efficiency in China's post-reform economy. The panel data cover China's thirty provinces for the period of 1985–2008. The empirical results show that the average output elasticity of labor is larger than the other two inputs of capital and human capital. Based on the specified inefficiency Tobit model, the factor analysis on technical efficiency shows that the time effects of technical efficiency in China's post-reform economy are significantly contingent on the factors. There exists significant regional differences in technical efficiency in China's economic development, and a number of policy implications can be drawn.     

科技金融对高技术产业科技创新的影响研究

基于27省市2010-2016年高技术产业数据,运用DEA模型和面板模型分析科技金融投入对科技创新效率的影响。结果表明：我国高技术产业科技创新效率整体呈东、中、西递减。在技术的开发阶段,企业、政府、社会资本对科技创新影响较为显著。在技术的市场化阶段,企业资金显著促进科技创新,而人力资本起到了阻碍作用。在技术的国际化阶段,资本市场投入和政府投入对科技创新产生抑制作用。     

人力资本投资结构及其对经济增长的影响——基于扩展MRW模型的内生增长理论与实证研究

本文针对已有的关于人力资本投资的理论研究往往只关注人力资本投资数量而忽视人力投资结构研究的现状,把教育和健康看作两种资本,分析了人力资本投资的具体构成形式。假设人力资本由教育资本和健康资本按照Cobb—Douglas生产技术形式组合生成。通过扩展Mankiw、Romer和Weil（1992）模型（简称MRW模型）,构建了一个新的内生经济增长模型。理论分析结果表明：人力资本投资结构制约着经济增长,人力资本积累和存量都对经济产生重要影响。最后文章以理论分析为基础构建计量经济模型,利用1978—2004年中国29个省、市、自治区的面板数据实证分析了人力资本的积累和存量以及教育资本和健康资本对中国经济增长的影响。实证结果表明较好地支持了本文的理论拓展分析。     

Industrial Productivity Convergence in China

This paper examines the convergence process of industrial productivity between Chinese regions. Both σ- and β-convergences are investigated using a panel data set of 30 provinces and autonomous regions over the period 1985–1999. Unconditional σ- and β-convergence methods fail to detect productivity convergence over the whole sample period, although they suggest convergence during a sub-period 1985–1990. The estimates of a human capital enhanced production function, with the constant return to scale constraint, show that productivity gaps between Chinese regions declined during 1985–1999 with a rate of convergence of around 1.3% per annum. Similar results are also found when the data are disaggregated into three broader geographic regions.