An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility for China, 1952–2000

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952–2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1988 Johansen, S. 1988. Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12: 231–254. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Johansen & Juselius (1990 Johansen, S and Juselius, K. 1990. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration – with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52: 169–210. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the policy, fertility rates have been falling by around 10–12%. Our results suggest that socio-economic development – consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis – played a key role in China's fertility transition.     

The valuation of water for conservation projects in South Africa

A number of water development and conservation programmes are currently being undertaken in South Africa, one of the most notable being the Working for Water Programme. The economic rationale underlying the programme in selected mountain catchments in the Western Cape was presented by Van Wilgen et al. (South African Journal of Science, 93: 404–11, 1997 VAN WILGEN, BW, LITTLE, PR, CHAPMAN, RA, GÖRGENS, AHM, WILLEMS, T and MARAIS, C. 1997. The sustainable development of water resources: history, financial costs, and benefits of alien plant control programmes. South African Journal of Science, 93: 404–11. [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) and Marais (Unpublished, PhD thesis, University of Stellenbosch, 1998 MARAIS C 1998 An economic evaluation of alien plant control programmes in the mountain catchment areas of the Western Cape province, South Africa Unpublished PhD thesis. Stellenbosch: University of Stellenbosch  [Google Scholar]). A cost–benefit analysis of the Working for Water Programme in the Mgeni catchment in KwaZulu‐Natal was conducted by Gillham & Haynes (Unpublished paper presented at Tenth South African National Hydrology Symposium, 2001 GILLHAM S HAYNES M 2001 Evaluating a riparian clearing programme as a water management strategy Unpublished paper presented at the Tenth South African National Hydrology Symposium, Pietermaritzburg, 26–28 September  [Google Scholar]). Cost–benefit analysis has also been conducted in the Eastern Cape by Hosking & Du Preez (South African Journal of Science, 95: 442–8, 1999 HOSKING, SG and DU PREEZ, M. 1999. A cost–benefit analysis of removing alien trees in the Tsitsikamma mountain catchment. South African Journal of Science, 95: 442–8. [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). There are, however, aspects of these assessments which merit more attention than they have been given thus far. One of these aspects is the value of water benefits, and this article examines it from the perspectives of marginal cost and willingness to pay. It is shown that different approaches are appropriate for different project locations, and that significantly different results are being obtained using these approaches. It is concluded that great care is needed in relating the value of water benefits to the specifics of the various locations where the conservation project is being implemented.     

Social capability deficits and productivity behaviour of African manufacturing firms: Evidence from Lesotho garment producers

Despite attempts to induce strong competitiveness in African manufacturing firms, poor productivity performances continue to hinder their ability to operate successfully in international markets. This paper argues that, while many plausible explanations can be put forward for this failing, analysis of the firms' social and institutional contexts can provide useful insights into why they have continued to perform badly. Adopting the technological catch-up framework proposed by Abramovitz (1986) Abramovitz, M. 1986. Catching up, forging ahead and falling behind. Journal of Economic History, 46(2): 385–406. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], the paper uses the case of Lesotho garment producers to illustrate how an environment characterised by significant social capability deficits has a negative impact on local firms' competitiveness. Strategic interventions to improve the quality of infrastructural services deliveries are suggested as urgently needed remedial measures.     

Managing the costs of HIV/AIDS: A case study of a South African contract cleaning company

This paper, based on a case study of a South African contract cleaning company in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, adds to the recent literature on the management of the financial impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic. After situating the research alongside recent contributions that have examined large enterprises, and small, medium and micro enterprises, the paper provides a profile of the company and its predominantly female workforce. The company's management of costs incurred due to HIV/AIDS is critically assessed from the perspective of financial sustainability, using an AIDS Projection Model developed by Matthews (2007 Matthews, A. 2007. Computational modelling of the impact of AIDS on business. AIDS, 21(Supplement 3): S91–7. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). It was found that while continued employment of this workforce is economically sustainable, both from the perspective of the business and the associated provident fund, the costs to employees are far from equitable. The paper therefore recommends the implementation of a holistic HIV/AIDS management programme, including treatment and prevention activities.     

Race and land ownership in Rhodesia: trajectories of conflicting nationalisms in Shimmer Chinodya's Dew in the morning (2001)

This paper analyses Shimmer Chinodya's novel Dew in the morning in order to demonstrate that fiction has the capacity to reveal patterns of meaning that comment on race relations and to show how these are related to the issue of land ownership in Rhodesia. The novel questions the assumption that bitterness and anger over economic dispossession necessarily leads to rebellion. Dew in the morning recounts different kinds of resistances that emphasise the ‘peasant option’ (Ranger, 1985 Ranger, T. 1985. Peasant consciousness and guerrilla war in Zimbabwe, Harare: Zimbabwe Publishing House.  [Google Scholar]) in which Africans developed groups to stave off the possibility of being absorbed as full-time wage earners. The novel adds complexity to the notions of the armed political struggle and the peasant option by showing that these routes produced differentiated African subjectivities based on race, class and gender nationalisms. The movements or trajectories of these forms of peasant consciousnesses produced conflict-ridden nationalisms characterised by moments of resistance, incorporation and obeisance to colonial rule.     

The Political and Economic Dimension of Monetary Unions

This paper investigates the relationship between the political and economic aspects of monetary unions. After illustrating the recent change in approach to the theory of optimum currency areas (section 2), the paper analyzes the momentous implications of union members maintaining political sovereignty (section 3) for the notion of currency area optimality and the viability of monetary unions (section 4).     

The monetary history of Rome

Abstract

The internationally-renowned Swedish historian, Professor Sture Bolin, has devoted himself, ever since his youth, to the problems of monetary history and to the study of coinage as a historical source. His doctoral thesis on the finds of Roman coins in independent Germany ¹ Fynden av romerska mynt i det fria Germanien. appeared in 1926; it was an important work which, by using numismatic source material, contributed considerably to the understanding of the relations between the Roman Empire and the Germans. After the publication of this work he continued to study the functions of money in Antiquity and the Middle Ages, and this research resulted in the publication, between 1939 and 1957, of a number of important papers. During the same period he worked steadily on a major work designed to provide a synthesis of the problems relating to the state and its currency from Antiquity to the Middle Ages. The first volume of this work, State and Currency in the Roman Empire to 300 A.D. ² Almqvist & Wiksell, Stockholm, 1958, p. 357, 45 Sw. Kr. , has now been published. The book is the product of a lifelong study of a central theme of economic history, and it unquestionably justifies the great efforts expended on it. It is a work of genius, epoch-making in its field, throwing completely new light upon Roman monetary history, and marking a culminating point in this branch of study.     

Ludwig Von Mises’ Neoclassical Analysis of Dumping

The paper explores similarity in the analysis of dumping by Ludwig von Mises, which he labels as margin monopoly, in Human Action: A Treatise on Economics (1949), and by Joan Robinson in The Economics of Imperfect Competition (1933). Mises, though, does not admit to similarity with Robinson, and five reasons are suggested why he was unwilling to acknowledge Robinson. Robinson’s analysis is neoclassical, and so is that of Mises, which is an anomaly for Mises, an Austrian economist who generally focuses on activity in disequilibrium.     

Rhetoric or action: Are South African municipalities planning for climate change?

In 2008 the South African National Disaster Management Centre commissioned a study into measures taken by local municipalities to plan for climate change. Two areas were selected for their dissimilar climatic challenges: the //Khara Hais Municipality,1 ¹The // spelling represents the click consonant in the Kxoe language that the name comes from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki///Khara_Hais_Local_Municipality * Brendon Solik is now a Consultant at Environmental Resources Management (ERM), Johannesburg, South AfricaView all notes a semi-desert area in the Northern Cape Province plagued by droughts and severe weather events, and the George Municipality, an area in the Western Cape Province plagued by droughts, the rising sea level and flash floods. It was found that despite South African laws and regulations requiring local government to take action to reduce the risk of disasters, planning for climate change is still no more than sophisticated rhetoric in the two municipalities. This lack of urgency can be ascribed to local municipalities having other more pressing developmental priorities. It would, however, be short-sighted of municipalities not to plan for climate change, as major setbacks in hard-won economic and social development follow a disaster.     

Do Trade Unions Deteriorate International Competitiveness? Reconciliation of the Discrepancy Between Theory and Practice

Brander and Spencer (Journal of International Economics 24:217–234, 1988) and Mezzetti and Dinopoulos (Journal of International Economics 31:79–100, 1991) provide different theoretical viewpoints on the following issue: Do trade unions deteriorate international competitiveness? Some discrepancies have been found to exist between their arguments and empirical findings. This paper attempts to provide plausible explanations and solutions to reconcile these discrepancies.     

The Nordic Countries' Trade Liberalisation in the 1950s: An introduction

Abstract

The fall of the Soviet Union re-awoke the interest in economic regime transformation. ¹ See for instance Dornbusch, R. et al (eds.), Postwar Economic Reconstruction and the Lessons for the East Today, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press 1993. How should liberated states navigate the complex and difficult transition from state controlled bilateralism to a market-oriented multilateralism? Liberalisation and structural adjustment could happen faster than the social institutions were capable of absorbing. Transnational economic integration brings returns and efficiency, but at the same time challenges the social and political institutions on which the economic transactions are based. Liberalisation of trade, capital and payments impose considerable constraints on the democracies' governments in their pursuit of national consensus, stability and prosperity. This topic is at the core of the globalisation debate, and formulated as a trilemma between economic integration, proper public economic management and national sovereignty. ² Lawrence, S.H., Reflections on managing Global Integration, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 23, 1999, 3–18.      

Rejoinder to sture martinius on peasant destinies

Abstract

1. I wrote ² Gadd, op. cit. p. 190, (it.ad.) that “many of Martinius' conclusions appear to be based on insufficient evidence”, not “findings”, as in Martinius' rendering. Conclusions are dependant not only on evidence but also on logic.     

Incidence and Behavioural Response to Social Security Contributions: An Analysis of Kink Points in France

We study the incidence of social security contributions (SSCs) in France relying on the strategy developed by Alvaredo et al. (De Econ, 2017. doi: 10.1007/s10645-017-9294-7). This strategy infers the incidence of SSCSs from the discontinuities in earnings distributions created by kink points in the SSC schedule. Using administrative data on earnings for the period 1976–2010, we study approximately 200 such kink points and do not find that they systematically induce a discontinuity in the distribution of gross earnings. This allows us to reject the hypothesis that SSCs are incident on workers, at least locally around kinks. Additionally, we exploit the large variations in SSC rates across kinks and years to estimate the local incidence of both employer and employee SSCs around these thresholds. We find that employer SSCs are shifted to employers while employee SSCs are shifted to employees. These findings are consistent with the economic incidence of SSCs being aligned with their statutory incidence, locally around kink points.     

The deformation of cohorts

Abstract

Investigations of the Swedish mortality decline during the 19th century have hardly considered the cohort-aspect. Generally, they are concerned with the question of period mortality. This is quite striking since we have mortality models which allow a separation of the cohort and period effects, and because the cohort aproach has been used in analysing other demographic phenomena during the period. ¹ In textbooks as well as elsewhere, Erland Hofsten, however, has asserted the necessity of considering the cohort aspect in population analysis — In this investigation the cohort is constituted of the individuals of the age groups 0–10 years during a ten-year period.      

Increased international integration is a prerequisite for more and better research in economic history

Abstract

In the article “Is Swedish Research in Economic History Internationally Integrated?” ¹ Daniel Waldenström, Is Swedish Research in Economic History Internationally Integrated?, Scandinavian Economic History Review, vol. LIII, 2005:2, 50–77 , I present new facts on the past international publications and conference participation activity of Swedish economic historians. In contrast to claims made in a recent large public investigation, my data show that Swedish economic historians have not published extensively in international journals, or books, in recent years. This can in part be explained by the custom to write predominantly monographs, to write mostly in Swedish, and to use hardly any quantitative methods or theory-based economic analysis. Naturally, I am well aware that there may also be some other factors at work, and that empirical investigations of this kind are always open to objections. Problems regarding sample selection, variable definitions and so forth cannot be avoided, and to focus mainly on journal article publications in a field where books and anthologies play an important role raises some concern. ² See, e.g., the discussion in my article on these issues relating to the works by Diana Hicks and others. However, my article does not advocate any methodological dogmatism and acknowledges that economic history research can be conducted and presented in many different ways, using several different methodologies. The important thing is to recognise that there is great potential in combining such an open-minded methodological attitude with an active interest and participation in the research that appears in the many international peer-reviewed journals. This would not be to import some foreign (American) methods or views of the field so much as trying to revive the true Swedish economic history in the spirit of Eli F. Heckscher. In my view, this is the most consistent strategy to ensure both more and better future Swedish research in economic history.     

Crisis in finnish agriculture at the end of the nineteenth century

Abstract

The arrival of cheap American wheat in the European market the 1870's brought down the prices of agricultural produce, in particular those of grain. The resulting agricultural depression led in turn to the adoption in most countries of protectionist policies. In Scandinavia, however, only Sweden resorted to protection; Denmark, Norway and Finland adhering to free trade. Denmark was successful in her efforts to switch over to a many-sided dairy-farming; the agricultural policy of Norway was — according to O. A. Johnsen1 Norwegische Wirtschaftsgeschichte, 1939, pp. 499-503. — not successful since not only the import of cereals but even the import of butter increased.     

Real Exchange Rates,the Trade Balance and Net Foreign Assets: Long-Run Relationships and Measures of Misalignment

In this paper we estimate equilibrium exchange rates for 23 OECD countries and four less mature economies in a panel data setting. Our empirical analysis demonstrates significant links between the trade balance and net foreign assets, and between real exchange rates and the trade balance, rather than between real exchange rates and net foreign asset, as predicted by the model of Lane and Milessi-Ferretti (2002). Our study indicates that, in terms of the association between real exchange rates and trade balance, there is heterogeneity between the emerging market economies and the OECD countries. Finally, we construct various measures of exchange rate misalignment for all the exchange rates included in our panels.     

The Incidence of Social Security Contributions in the United Kingdom: Evidence from Discontinuities at Contribution Ceilings

This paper investigates the incidence of National Insurance contributions (NICs) in the UK, exploiting the ceiling that applied to employee and employer contributions between 1975 and 1985 and to employee contributions only between 1986 and 2007. Using data from the New Earnings Survey Panel Dataset, a mandatory survey of British employers’ payroll records, we show there was no dip in the earnings density at the ceiling in either period, suggesting that the earnings of those near the ceiling were unresponsive to the change in tax rates. The absence of such a dip allows us to test which of labour cost, gross earnings or net earnings are smooth around the threshold. As shown by Alvaredo et al. (De Econ, 2017. doi: 10.1007/s10645-017-9294-7), this is informative about the incidence of the change in tax rates at the threshold on those located nearby. We cannot reject the hypothesis that it is gross earnings that are smooth around the threshold, which may reflect a substantive role for statutory incidence in determining economic incidence. However, a lack of statistical power means that, while in some cases we can reject the hypotheses that the full economic incidence of NICs are borne by one side of the market, our results taken alone are also consistent with a wide range of less extreme incidence shares.     

The exporter productivity premium along the productivity distribution: evidence from quantile regression with nonadditive firm fixed effects

A vast literature on the international activities of heterogeneous firms finds the existence of a positive exporter productivity premium. On average, exporting firms are more productive than firms that sell on the national market only. The Melitz (Econometrica 71:1695–1725, 2003) model, however, has implications for not only mean differences but also differences in the distribution of productivity. Furthermore, exporting firms may be different from non-exporting firms for reasons that are not included in the Melitz model. We believe that conditioning on firm fixed effects and studying the distribution of productivity are both necessary for empirical tests of the Melitz model. This paper is the first to employ a new quantile estimation technique for panel data introduced in Powell (Did the economic stimulus payments of 2008 reduce labor supply? Evidence from quantile panel data estimation. RAND Corporation Publications Department, Santa Monica, 2014). We find that the premium is positive at all productivity levels, but highest at the lowest quantiles. These results support theoretical models which suggest that there is a division in productivity between exporters and non-exporters.     

The Swedish iron industry during the First World War and the Post-War depression

Abstract

In a paper read at the annual meeting of Jernkontoret (The Swedish Ironmasters' Association) in 1912 Professor E. F. Heckscher gave an estimate of the proportion of the total annual outpout of the Swedish iron industry which was exported. Including material entering into the exports of steelusing industries, it was estimated at 65–70 %. Assuming this to be correct, then only the saw-milling and paper- and pulp-making industries were at that time more dependent upon foreign markets than the iron industry. ¹ Jernkontorets Annaler (hereafter cited JKA) 1912. p. 183 ff. Cf. E. F. Heckscher, Svenska produktionsproblem, p. 107 and JKA 1919, pp. 181–202.