中美科技“脱钩”下高新技术产品进出口贸易的影响因素分析——基于20个国家和地区贸易数据的引力模型

近年来,中美关系收紧,美对华科技领域的遏制行为愈演愈烈。美国不仅对华高技术出口采取一系列的管制措施,还对自中国进口的高新技术产品做加征关税的限制。基于此,对中国高新技术产品的进出口贸易特征做深入研究,研究结果发现,中国高新技术产品的进出口结构比较单一。在主要伙伴国进出口贸易数据的基础上,利用引力模型对影响高新技术产品进出口的因素做进一步的实证研究。结果显示：国家创新力和对外开放度的提升对高新技术产品的出口均具有促进作用;且增加高新技术产品的出口有助于改变中国在外贸上大而不强的现状,提升在全球价值链中的地位。     

Policy analysis with Melitz-type gravity model: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

Several governments worldwide aim at fostering agricultural productivity growth by providing investment support. However, the policy’s effect on trade for middle- and low-income countries has not been analyzed so far. This paper analyzes the impact of agricultural policies (credit subsidies and tariffs) on agricultural trade flows by modifying a Melitz-type structural gravity model for a small and open economy. According to the theory, trade flows are expected to increase with credit subsidies and decrease with partners’ applied tariff rates. We analyze bilateral agricultural trade flows between Kyrgyzstan and its 69 trading partners from 2007 to 2018 to test our theoretical findings. Applying the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator, we find that credit subsidies effectively increase international trade flows while applied tariffs imposed on agricultural products reduce Kyrgyzstan’s export substantially. These results can be applied to similar economies with publicly available data where small budgetary efforts drive trade expansion.     

经济政策不确定性对美国木质林产品进口贸易的影响

在按照木质林产品HS六分位测算美国木质林产品16个主要进口来源国的进口拓展边际和集约边际的基础上,基于2001—2018年美国及其木质林产品16个主要进口来源国的经济政策不确定指数以及相关数据,利用构建的贸易引力扩展模型,分析经济政策不确定性对美国木质林产品进口贸易额、拓展边际和集约边际的影响。结果表明：经济政策不确定性对美国木质林产品进口贸易额和进口集约边际的影响显著为负,对进口拓展边际的影响为负向不显著;美国人均GDP、进口来源国人均GDP、美元实际有效汇率指数、美国经济自由度指数、进口来源国贸易开放度、进口来源国森林认证等也对美国木质林产品进口贸易额、进口拓展边际和集约边际产生不同程度和方向的影响。鉴于美国是世界上最大的木质林产品进口市场,也是中国木质林产品最主要的出口目的国,根据研究结果,提出树立风险意识、降低出口市场集中度、加强新产品研发、提高产品附加值、突破绿色壁垒限制等建议。     

The Determinants and Motivations of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment: A Spatial Gravity Model Approach

Abstract

The study attempts to investigate the features and determinants of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) into 138 countries and Chinese firms' investment strategies over the 2003–2009 period using an augmented gravity model with spatial linkages. The respective evaluations of China's OFDI are indicative of the important role played by non-financial OFDI. At the same time, Chinese firms prefer to invest in high-tech industries in developed countries while also focusing on the extraction of natural resources around the world. The empirical findings show that the host country's economic size has a significantly positive effect in terms of promoting Chinese OFDI. Chinese firms favour a complex-vertical platform in the developed countries while they prefer a market potential foreign direct investment (FDI) surrounding the host developing countries and an export-platform FDI in the petroleum exporting countries based on the surrounding market potential effect and spatial effect. The fuel extraction motive plays a key role in China's OFDI in line with the realities of Chinese FDI strategies in recent years.     

Determinants of the 1991–1993 Japanese recession: Evidence from a structural model of the Japanese economy

The objectives of this paper are to determine the extent to which various factors contributed to the most recent recession in Japan and to assess whether the recent behavior of the Japanese economy differs from that in previous recessions. Toward that end, we develop a small, structural macroeconometric model of the Japanese economy and estimate it using data from 1971 Q1 to 1991 Q1, the period just prior to the recent downturn. The important results can be summarized as follows. First, the severity of the recent recession probably does not reflect structural economic changes. Second, the poor economic performance in 1991–1993 period was to some extent predictable, reflecting the unwinding of imbalances that developed during the preceding expansion. Finally, unpredictable movements in exchange rates, land prices, and stock prices occurring after 1991 played an important, but not predominant, part in accentuating the downturn, while unusually stimulative fiscal and monetary policies appear to have contributed substantially to GDP during the recession.     

Building and using nonlinear simulations in Excel with an application to the specific factors model

Excel simulation models have become increasingly common in the economics classroom, as their ability to combine numerical and graphical information has proved a useful support to traditional teaching methods. Recent efforts have tended to embed the solution within the Excel sheet, avoiding the need to use the Solver add-in and allowing changes in the exogenous characteristics of the model to be instantly reflected in the numerical solutions and any associated geometry. While this is quite simple in small-scale linear models, it is less straightforward in larger nonlinear models such as those that dominate the theory of international trade. We discuss various methods that can be used in building Excel simulations when it is not possible to solve the underlying model explicitly. We illustrate the ideas and describe our experiences along with a new simulation of the specific factors model.     

引力模型下的新旧城区空间相互作用研究——以南京为例

引力模型是衡量两地间空间相互作用力的常用模型.文章首先选取多个衡量地域质量的指标,对两地综合质量进行了评估.用两地间多种运输方式的权重、时速、货币成本等因素来取代传统惯用的空间距离,构建了新的引力模型表达式.文章以南京市为例,用新的表达式测算了新旧城区的空间相互作用力,分析了新旧城区间相互作用的程度,并指出了对新旧城区空间相互作用研究中进一步的研究方向.     

Detecting currency manipulation: An application of a state-space model with Markov switching

Following an idea of Milton Friedman's “plucking model,” we propose to use a state-space model with Markov switching as an auxiliary tool for detecting currency manipulation. Without imposing any a priori restrictions, our model tests if fluctuations of a country's exchange rate are symmetric or if there exists a time-varying support level or resistance level of exchange rate. Using weekly and monthly data of countries on the “monitoring list” of the US Treasury as of April 2017, we find that exchange rates of China, South Korea, Switzerland, and Taiwan rarely fall below their time-varying trends, but are plucked upward from time to time by transitory shocks, suggesting that the FX (foreign exchange) authorities of these countries may have been intervening more actively against appreciation shocks. Our sub-sample analysis reveals that our model accurately captures the period of Switzerland's minimum exchange rate policy with probability of one and Japan's exchange rate rarely falls below its trend after implementing Abenomics. We discuss the difficulties of detecting FX intervention along with the relative advantage of our approach.     

New Borders and Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Analysis of the Baltic States

The objective of this paper is to provide evidence on the effects of an economic and political union by studying the trade flows of the three Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania after the breakup of the Soviet Union. We specify and estimate a gravity model of exports for the Nordic countries which enables us to determine the size and direction of trade flows in the Baltic states had they not been affected by the political institutions of the Soviet Union. Our results suggest that Baltic foreign trade was not only reduced significantly but also diverted to the members of the former Soviet Union. Consistent with our estimates, we also find that these consequences of the former political union are quickly dissipating, and the Baltic countries are increasing their share of exports to the European Union and the U.S.     

Shifting International Competitiveness: An Analysis of Market Share in Manufacturing Industries in Japan,Korea, Taiwan and the USA*

In the present study we conduct constant market share analysis of the imports and apparent consumption of the manufacturing industries of four major economies‐Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the USA. Additionally, the current study disaggregates import penetration in manufacturing, including sectors with relatively high technological requirements. Statistical tests of the significance of changes in import penetration in manufacturing industries are also conducted. The real growth of exports and apparent consumption in the two largest OECD markets is decomposed into: (i) the commodity composition effect; and (ii) the competitiveness effect. Finally, we examine the significance of trade policy for changes in import penetration in Japan and the USA.     

Microenvironment-specific effects in the application credit scoring model

This paper introduces the improved version of a credit scoring model which assesses credit worthiness of applicants for a loan. The scorecard has a two-level multilevel structure which nests applicants for a loan within microenvironments. In addition, the paper proposes a new type of clustering for a hierarchical two-level structure which is more intuitive and efficient in the application to credit scoring. This structure explores living area-specific effects which are viewed as unobserved determinants of default. The primary benefit of the multilevel scorecard compared to a conventional scoring model is higher accuracy of the model predictions.     

An Inquiry into the Determinants of the Exports of China and India

Regression analysis is used to tease out the relative significance of influences on the supply and demand for the exports of China and India. On the supply side, the value-added tax in China has discouraged export supply. The elimination of the rebate on those taxes will discourage exports. Higher wages discourage exports, but the share of exports by foreign invested enterprise is a positive influence, as is a higher share of value added in output and greater experience in exporting. On the demand side, exports depend in part on aggregate income levels in importing countries. Relative wages have been more important than exchange rates in determining the demands for Chinese and Indian exports. This evidence does not support the pressures for a devaluation of the RMB. There is also evidence of the positive significance of the accustomization of purchasers to buying Chinese exports.     

Determinants of Different Modes of FDI: Firm-Level Evidence from Japanese FDI into the US

There are four major modes through which firms undertake foreign direct investment (FDI) – merger and acquisition (M&A), joint venture (JV), new plant (NP) and others (O). The four modes of FDI are distinct from each other, and each has its own unique advantages and disadvantages. While a large and growing empirical literature examines the determinants of FDI, very few studies examine the determinants of different modes of FDI. The central objective of this paper is to empirically analyze the extent to which the determinants of FDI such as firm size influences the choice of one mode of FDI over another. Our analysis follows a stylized two-stage investment process. First, we look at the probability of whether a Japanese firm is willing to undertake FDI in the US. Second, for firms that are willing to undertake FDI, we analyze which mode of FDI - i.e. M&A, joint venture, new plant or other FDI – they will undertake. The second stage is the innovation of this paper and its contribution to the FDI literature.     

Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade

World trade evolves at two margins. Where a bilateral trading relationship already exists it may increase through time (intensive margin). But trade may also increase if a trading bilateral relationship is newly established between countries that have not traded with each other in the past (extensive margin). We provide an empirical dissection of post–World War II growth in manufacturing world trade along these two margins. We propose a “corner-solutions version” of the gravity model to explain movements on both margins. A Tobit estimation of this model resolves the so-called “distance puzzle”. It also finds more convincing evidence than recent literature that WTO-membership enhances trade. JEL no. F12, F15     

关于旅游目的地环境容量约束的探讨:量化和模型分析

旅游目的地环境容量对旅游者的旅游活动和旅游产品的消费具有约束作用。本文环境容量约束加以量化,并引入到旅游产品消费的经济模型分析中,对如何在与旅游产品消费经济模型相关的研究领域中引入环境容量,以弥补因忽视环境容量约束而带来的不足之处进行了初步探索。此外,本文对如何解决环境容量约束对旅游产品消费的制约作用也做了简要的分析。     

Economic and Geographical Distance: Explaining Mercosur Sectoral Exports to the EU

The objective of this paper is to apply a modified gravity model to annual exports disaggregated by sector, from MERCOSUR + Chile to the 15 current members of the EU. In doing so, we aimed to classify sectors according to their sensitivity to geographical and economic distance and to identify which commodities enjoy export strength even without further progress in trade liberalisation with the EU. In the estimation we made use of two additional explanatory variables which are found to be relevant when explaining trade, namely, infrastructure and exchange rates. An exchange rate index is built that takes into account protection. Our results support the view that different sectors have a different sensitivity to distance and highlight the importance of using disaggregated data when analysing international trade flows.     

A general equilibrium model of Value Added Tax evasion: an application to Pakistan

International Economics and Economic Policy - Value Added Taxes (VAT) constitute a major share of tax revenues in developing countries in which tax evasion is widespread. The literature on VAT...     

Japanese aggregate import demand function: reassessment from the ‘bounds’ testing approach

This paper aims to ascertain the long-run relationship of Japanese aggregate import demand function over the period 1973–1997. The cointegration test used, bounds test procedure [J. Appl. Econ. 16 (2001) 289] is a recent test that based on the estimation of an unrestricted error-correction model (UECM). In contrary with previous studies [J. Policy Model. 16 (1994) 291; Jpn. World Econ. 13 (2001) 135], the bounds test confirms a long-run equilibrium relationship between quantity of imports, and its determinants namely real income and relative prices term. The estimated long-run income and price elasticities are 0.99 and −0.82, respectively.     

中国股市投机泡沫的膨胀与破灭:机制转换模型的应用

本文运用机制转换模型研究收益率与换手率的非线性关系,以此描述中国股票市场投机泡沫的膨胀及部分破灭的演进过程。结果证明中国股票市场存在膨胀中会部分破灭的投机泡沫。市场大幅下跌概率的样本内、样本外估计值能较好预测历史数据中出现的最大实际损失,说明机制转换模型具有良好的预测能力;投机泡沫的部分破灭是导致中国股票市场价格大幅下跌的主要原因。     

Think tanks in the USA: Science as an instrument of public policy

The article discusses the organization of the US system of scientific and research institutions. Current and historical aspects of the formation of “think tanks” as a phenomenon of scientific and sociopolitical life are considered, as well as the classification of think tanks and their role in scientific research and in providing independent expert opinion during the development of public policy.