International Dependency and Economic Fluctuations in East Asian NIEs

Abstract

This paper investigates the sources of economic fluctuations in the four Asian newly industrialized economies (NIEs), namely Hong Kong, Republic of Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. As small open economies, their macro-economic development is highly dependent on technology as well as markets of large countries. Using the common trends model, we examine the impacts of external supply shock, internal supply shock and trade shock on the key national macro-economic variables of these four economies, i.e. output, consumption, investment, export and import. Our empirical evidence suggests that supply-side disturbances, both the country-specific supply shocks and international supply shocks explain the bulk of fluctuations in output.     

Economic Openness and Subjective Well-being in China

Using a large household survey administered across 30 cities in September 2003, we examine the relationship between the degree of economic openness, measured as the sum of imports and exports as a share of GDP, and subjective well-being in urban China. We find that respondents who live in cities with high levels of economic openness report significantly lower levels of subjective well-being ceteris paribus. We offer four explanations for this result; namely, inadequate social protection in the face of globalization, unfulfilled expectations, political dissatisfaction and anomie.     

China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries

We analyze the impact of China’s growth on the exports of other Asian countries, distinguishing China’s demand for imports from its penetration of export markets. We account for the endogeneity of Chinese exports by applying instrumental variables in a gravity model with country-pair fixed-effects. We find that China’s crowding-out effect is felt mainly in markets for consumer goods and hence by less-developed Asian countries, not in markets for capital goods or by the more advanced Asian economies. Meanwhile, China has been sucking in imports from its Asian neighbors, but this effect is mainly felt in markets for capital goods. Hence, more and less developed Asian countries are being affected very differently by China’s rise. JEL no. E5, F4     

贸易开放度与中国经济增长关系的地区差异研究

为了探求中国的开放政策是否促进了经济增长，以及开放政策对不同区域的作用是否存在差异，本文在相关文献回顾的基础上，运用中国大陆地区28个省、自治区和直辖市（海南、重庆、西藏除外）1984-2004年的相关数据，采用Panel Data模型对贸易开放度与中国经济增长的关系问题进行了实证研究。研究的结论认为开放的对外经济贸易政策促进了中国的经济增长；井且通过研究发现这一促进作用存在着地区差异，对于中西部地区来说，促进作用更大。     

中日经济学类人才培养模式的比较研究

中国加入WTO以及经济的快速发展，为经济学类人才提供了巨大的市场需求，也为经济学类人才培养模式提出了新要求．二战后的日本经济在短短几十年内取得了飞速的发展，与其高等教育的支持分不开，日本大学经济学类人才培养模式发挥了积极的作用。分析日本经济学教育，比较中日经济学类人才培养模式在专业设置口径，基础知识结构等方面的异同，对于完善我国经济学类人才培养模式很有意义。     

贸易开放度与通货膨胀:基于社会福利的分析框架

本文在开放经济和价格粘性的模型中,从货币冲击出发,研究贸易开放度与通货膨胀的影响关系,结果表明:未被预期到的扩张性货币冲击会形成通货膨胀缺口,通货膨胀缺口会带来社会福利的增加,政府可以从通货膨胀缺口获得收益.贸易开放度越高,政府从通货膨胀缺口所获得的收益越小,因此政府会采取紧缩的货币政策来降低通货膨胀率.用1978年-2003年中国的数据,通过协整和ECM模型分析发现贸易开放度与通货膨胀率在长期内呈负相关关系,并且贸易开放度是降低通货膨胀率的原因,因此维持协整关系的稳定有利于降低通货膨胀率.     

Openness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility: In Search of an Explanation

The puzzle that real exchange rates are less volatile in open economies is an important challenge to exchange rate theory. Adjustment of domestic prices to nominal exchange rate movements can account for only a small proportion of this effect. Real and nominal shocks display no obvious correlation with openness. It is shown here that real effective exchange rates are more strongly mean-reverting in more open economies, even after controlling for exchange rate regime effects. This is predicted by the theory of current account sustainability, because of its emphasis on ratios to GDP rather than to trade flows.

金融开放外源性风险对中国经济金融稳定与安全的影响分析

本文在构建金融开放外源性风险体系基础上,应用“3δ”原理和偏最小二乘法对中国、东南亚和拉美等共26个国家的金融开放的外源性风险及其影响进行了分析,所得结果与26个国家的金融开放的实际十分吻合.研究表明“3δ”原理和偏最小二乘法在监测和分析发展中国家金融开放外源性风险产生的影响具有很强的实用性和可操作性,为建立金融开放外生源风险的评价机制,为提高金融开放监管效率,提供了相应的方法依据.     

Performance of Domestic and Foreign Banks: The Case of Korea and the Asian Financial Crisis

Abstract

This paper examines the performance of banks, domestic and foreign, in Korea before and after the Asian financial crisis, examining how the profitability of those banks differed and identifying factors that explain why those differences existed. The performance of Korean banks deteriorated dramatically in 1998 with most banks recovering somewhat in 1999. Foreign banks did not experience the same negative effect on their performance as a rule. Overall, the domestic Korean banks suffered more severely from the Asian financial crisis than foreign banks. Several possible explanations exist. First, foreign banks, unlike domestic Korean banks, were not subject to credit allocation directives from the Korean government to selected, favoured industries. Second, foreign banks, since they relied for governance on the mother bank in the home country, achieved higher efficiency and better asset and liability management. Finally, foreign banks rely more heavily on fee-for-service income rather than loan revenue.     

Banking in the Shadows: A Comparative Study of China and India

In recent years there has been increasing interest in the rise of shadow banking in China and India. In this paper, we aim to get a better understanding of the differences in trends and investigate the factors leading to the increase of shadow banking in these two major emerging economies. We find that financial exclusion is a common factor leading to the growth of shadow banking in both countries. While financial reform has taken place in India, financially repressive policies still prevail in China. Although several regulatory measures have been adopted in India and China, the size of the shadow banking sector in these two countries remains underestimated. Thus, streamlining and enhancing data collection is a key priority for both nations. We argue that regulation in both countries should be more activity focused (specific field in which a shadow bank is focused on) rather than sector or entity based, and it should be at par with banks. The shadow banks provide last mile connectivity to remote, distant, and ignored segments of the population not serviced by the formal financial sector. As this enhances financial inclusion, a balanced approach is required keeping in view both costs and benefits of the shadow banking system.     

中国与中亚五国金融监管合作及其前景

金融监管合作是中国与中亚五国金融合作的薄弱环节,但是根据各国现行的国内法和国际法基础以及金融业开放和自由化程度,金融监管合作已经具备了法律基础和现实条件。在现有的法律基础和现实条件下中国已经与中亚五国中的哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦建立了双边金融监管合作机制。随着中国与中亚五国经济一体化程度的深化,中国与中亚五国之间的金融监管合作不但会扩展到所有上述国家而且必然会形成区域性的金融监管合作机制。本文就中国与中亚五国金融监管合作的基础、合作机制以及发展前景进行了阐述。     

经济一体化背景下亚太地区经济合作的趋势分析

从目前来看,APEC作为亚太地区唯一的全区域经济合作组织,在一体化的进程中发展缓慢。通过亚太地区与欧盟一体化成功因素的对比,文章认为东亚地区有首先实现经济一体化的诸多有利条件。在东亚经济一体化的基础之上,东亚联合亚太区域内其它次区域政府合作,并通过不断改进和完善的APEC机制逐步实现亚太地区经济一体化。文章还分析了美、俄、日、中四个亚太地区大国在实现东亚和亚太地区经济一体化过程中的作用。     

中亚金融中心区位选择研究

近年来,基于对本地区经济、金融发展的考虑,全国30多个省市积极筹建不同层次的金融中心,特别是＂新丝绸之路经济带＂的建设更是掀起了新一轮中亚金融中心建设的热议。究竟什么样的城市具有国际金融中心的条件,本文通过对国内外有关国际金融中心研究现状的梳理及对著名的国际金融中心发展历史的归纳总结,认为经济实力、金融集聚、地理位置及政府支持是促成国际金融中心形成的最核心因素。在此基础上通过乌鲁木齐与西安的比较分析,认为乌鲁木齐更具有建设中亚金融中心的综合优势。为此,乌鲁木齐应利用＂新丝绸之路经济带＂建设的有利时机,通过建立中亚融资中心、中亚清算中心、中亚金融市场中心和中亚外汇交易中心来实现乌鲁木齐中亚金融中心的目标。     

贸易开放与经济增长:只是线性关系吗

针对大多数经验文献所采用的贸易开放与经济增长之间存在线性关系的假设,本文考察了贸易开放影响长期经济增长的非线性效应。模型中贸易开放通过产出效应与技术外溢效应两条渠道影响了经济增长。竞争性均衡结果表明,贸易开放的增长效应依赖于消费偏好、要素禀赋、研发效率以及技术差距等参数的综合作用,因而贸易开放促进经济增长这一结论只在特定参数范围内成立,一般情形下贸易开放对经济增长的影响是非线性的。基于中国29个省市面板数据的估计结果表明,贸易开放与经济增长的非线性关系表现为倒U型曲线,而且贸易开放对中国不同区域的经济增长效应存在显著差异。     

中美汽车消费信贷比较研究

我国汽车工业进一步发展的制约因素正由“供给约束型”向“需求约束型”转变,汽车消费信贷的健康发展正成为汽车工业发展的关键。本文运用比较分析法,通过对中美之间的汽车消费信贷政策、信贷机构、信贷业务、信用制度体系及信贷保险进行比较,剖析了我国汽车消费信贷发展中存在的问题,并相应提出了完善我国汽车消费信贷市场的政策建议。     

中印吸引外国直接投资 (FDI) 税收政策的比较

本文从税收政策角度考察了中印两国在吸引FDI方面的类似与不同,指出,中国除实行内外资企业所得税法的统一,还应在双重征税免除协定的签订以及产业、技术和地区引导等方面加强努力,以提供一个公平的税收环境。     

新疆参与中亚区域经济合作的经济效应分析

新疆作为中国与中亚国家经贸合作的最重要平台,在＂上海合作组织＂和＂中亚区域经济合作（CAREC）＂框架下积极参与中亚区域经济合作。本文认为,这对新疆产生了积极的贸易投资效应：一是新疆对中亚国家的贸易规模不断扩大、贸易结构不断优化,且贸易方向发生转移;二是促进新疆吸引外商直接投资和国内资金,并促进新疆对中亚国家的投资。然而,成员国经济发展水平、区域经济合作的机制不完善以及融资机制的缺陷是制约区域经济合作效果的主要因素。     

美日经济增长方式比较研究及其对中国的启示

本文从四个方面对美日经济增长方式进行了深刻全面的比较研究，阐述了日本经济陷入困境的深层次原因。然后使用误差修正模型对中国经济增长方式进行了实证分析，并在此基础上指出了我国在经济建设中应注意的问题。