One country,two currencies: The adoption of the Hong Kong currency board, 1983

Currency boards have had an enduring attraction as a solution to exchange rate and monetary credibility for small open economies, despite few successful examples. In this context, the case of Hong Kong stands out for its longevity; it survived the handover to China, the Asian financial crises in 1997, and the global crises in 2007–8 and 2020. The 1983 currency crisis and the decision to link the exchange rate to the US$ is usually treated as an outcome of local political uncertainty due to the Sino-British negotiations which set the framework for how Hong Kong would fit with the rest of China after 1997. We present fresh archival evidence from Hong Kong and London to reveal the year-long debates over Hong Kong's monetary system after a drop in the exchange rate in September 1982 and to demonstrate how most of the protagonists in Hong Kong and London came only reluctantly to accept the idea of re-pegging the dollar once public expectations had been raised. We also show how the mixture of currency and banking instability affected the terms of the negotiations in 1982 and 1983 and set the framework for the one country, two currencies system that prevails today.     

中国内地与香港贸易流量的关键影响因素——基于16个省份面板数据的实证分析

2004年以来,中国内地与香港的贸易流量主要受GDP和人均GDP的影响,《泛珠三角区域合作框架协议》对双边贸易的影响并不显著,内地与香港的产业内贸易特征明显.未来,内地应该加快发展区域经济,努力增加居民收入,不断完善基础设施,加快建设统一市场,深化产业内专业化分工,优化区域治理结构,从而提升内地与香港的经贸关系.     

人民币国际化的发展目标与策略分析

伴随着中国一系列政策的出台,人民币国际化已经悄然启动.在当今的国际政治经济背景下,人民币国际化只能依靠中国经济与金融的强大,而高端货币是人民币国际化的终极目标.目前,人民币国际化还缺乏两个最重要的微观基础:中国外贸的自主优势与中资银行的广泛国际存在.稳步推进人民币国际化,需要做好以下几件事:短期内尽快出台人民币国际化的官方蓝图,中长期内稳步构架微观基础、促进宏观经济尤其是人民币币值的国内稳定.     

人民币汇率争论的根本问题和理论基础

中美之间在美国次贷危机后所发生的人民币汇率之争,本质上是由于美国恃美元的国际货币地位通过滥发货币、制造国内通货膨胀来进行国际性支付的必然结果,而不是由于人民币汇率的低估所造成的。由于存在像印度等第三方的替代性出口可能,人民币汇率低估与否,对于解决美国的贸易赤字不会有丝毫的贡献,再加上美国从中国进口的商品中含有大量的美国技术、管理和原材料,人民币升值甚至会使美国受到伤害。     

从政治视角看人民币升值

人民币升值问题近年来影响我国社会的全面发展，尤其是进入2007年以后这一影响更为强烈，表面看来它是经济问题，但事实上它包含着深刻的政治因素。西方某些势力示图通过人民币升值来阻止中国的发展以及由此而带动的日益崛起的整个东方世界，我们必须以此为契机，理性地反思我国经济发展尚存的问题，在风云变幻的国际环境中保持我国经济和社会发展的稳定性。     

Country of origin,branding strategy and internationalisation: the case of Chinese piano companies

This paper studies the internationalisation of Chinese piano firms from a branding perspective. The purpose of the paper is twofold. First, it examines the interplay between the country of origin (COO) effect and international branding, and how COO affects the choice of branding strategies in international markets. Second, it explores the possible link between international branding decisions and international expansion of the firm. A model is introduced that illustrates the relationships between COO, branding options and internationalisation. Corresponding to its progress in internationalisation, a firm's branding development in international markets may follow certain stages. As the firm moves to advanced stages, it increases its international brand equity; the impact from negative COO will decrease and eventually become irrelevant. The literature on internationalisation is largely based on the experience of MNEs from Western developed countries. Multinational firms from developing countries such as China possess some unique characteristics that make it very difficult to apply Western theories to them. The emergence of MNEs from developing countries calls for the development of new theories.     

香港跨境贸易人民币结算面面观

全球金融危机爆发以来,人民币跨境贸易结算特别是针对港澳跨境贸易人民币结算的政策频繁出台,这是为推动我国与周边国家和地区经贸关系发展、规避汇率风险、改善贸易条件的一大举措。本文以香港跨境贸易人民币结算为分析对象,分别对香港和内地两地将受到的影响进行深入分析。人民币结算将增加香港进出口企业的汇率风险、香港金融业在短期和长期也将会受不同程度的影响;内地外贸企业则能有效规避汇率风险、节约结算成本,人民币结算在长期也将为人民币国际化作出贡献。但是,跨境贸易人民币结算所面临的内外阻力更加不容忽视。     

人民币升值压力与国际化问题分析

近一段时间,关于促进人民币国际化进程,或逐渐成为国际储备货币的议论浮出水面。与此同时,人民币新一轮升值压力也接踵而来,由此关于人民币国际化与升值压力问题众说纷纭,莫衷一是。如何评价和评估人民币国际化或是成为国际储备货币与升值压力的关系,是当前中国国际金融战略需要思考的又一重要课题。     

关于《CEPA》与香港对外贸易发展的研究

本文围绕《CEPA》为主题,详细描述了《CEPA》的签署历程、特点,并且对《CEPA》签署后香港对外贸易的发展进行了详尽的分析。最后针对《CEPA》尚存在的问题,提出了将来进一步的补充《CEPA》内容的提议,以求使内地与香港的经济、贸易合作关系更加紧密。     

Renminbi in Ordinary Economies: A Demand‐side Study of Currency Globalization

Most studies of renminbi internationalization focus on the supply side, by examining China's own economic and political conditions. In contrast, this study addresses the demand side of renminbi internationalization, by providing an in‐depth analysis of renminbi use in ordinary foreign economies from both economic and political perspectives, with a particular focus on South Korea, China's next‐door neighbor. The study finds that sustainable indigenous market forces facilitating renminbi use in South Korea remain weak, despite the country's close economic ties with China. This research also shows, however, that the Korean Government has itself recently been able, through its policy measures, to generate new domestic support for greater use of the renminbi. These findings ultimately highlight the significant impact on the internationalization of a currency of the politics in the foreign countries using it.     

Exploring the Case for Monetary Integration between the Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong

This paper presents an empirical investigation on an important policy issue, namely, whether there is any evidence supporting monetary integration between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong. We follow two lines of inquiry. First, we present a series of simple tests to find the extent to which trade and/or financial linkages exist between the two regions. Second, we use simple inflation and output differentials and structural VAR techniques to test for the degree of business cycle synchronization between the two regions. The results indicate that there is evidence supporting the existence of trade linkages and that there is also support for the possible synchronization of business cycles. We discuss the implications of this for monetary integration between Hong Kong and the mainland.     

两岸货币清算机制内涵、困境及进程的探讨

完整的两岸货币清算机制是指解决两岸间美元、欧元、人民币、新台币等主要货币资金往来的制度性协议,这一协议由若干阶段性协议所构成,最终目的是实现人民币与新台币的直接兑换。大陆现有的四种跨境资金清算模式可以作为两岸货币清算机制的制度基础。受制于政治定位和资本账户管制,两岸货币清算机制迟迟未能签订。即便全面实现,在市场因素的驱动下,两岸依然会面临许多问题。     

A Eurasian Economic Vision for the Twenty-first Century

Widespread corruption in mainland China adversely affects the overall economy in general and international business in particular. Prior to the establishment of the Independent Commission against Corruption (ICAC) in 1974, corruption was also rampant in Hong Kong. The ICAC effectively cleaned corruption in Hong Kong within a short period of time. Hong Kong's success in this area has prompted the Chinese government to learn from Hong Kong's experience. This article reviews the factors that contributed to Hong Kong's success in fighting corruption and discusses whether China can learn from the Hong Kong experience. From this, we can conclude that, first, Hong Kong's experience demonstrates that a corruption‐prone culture can be changed in a relatively short period of time; second, in order for China to learn from Hong Kong's experience, there must be substantial changes in China's political and economic institutions.     

Renminbi Internationalization in the New Normal: Progress,Determinants and Policy Discussions

In the present paper we explore the internationalization of the renminbi with reference to the experiences of other monetary powers, and discuss its determinants, prospects and implications for China's development in the “new normal.” Specifically, after summarizing the major progress made thus far, we conduct a regression analysis, showing that economic size and financial conditions are significant determinants of the international currency status, while inertia and other unobserved factors also play important roles. These empirical findings enable us to undertake a scenario analysis focusing on the renminbi's potential to become a global reserve currency. Based on this quantitative research, we then revisit China's policy initiatives designed to promote its currency overseas. In our view, the internationalization of the renminbi, along with financial deepening and liberalization, should be regarded as a means to achieve China's goal of reaching a more sustainable and balanced model of development.     

基于TC系数的服务贸易竞争力实证分析——以香港、新加坡为例

同属"亚洲四小龙"的香港和新加坡上有许多共同点,但两者服务贸易的发展道路却有所不同,服务贸易竞争力也存在差异。本文选取了TC指数对香港和新加坡服务贸易行业竞争力进行比较分析,更好地了解服务贸易行业取得成功的奥秘,对提高中国服务贸易竞争力有所助益。     

香港与新加坡国际金融中心发展比较研究

香港和新加坡作为亚洲四小龙,都是亚洲区域重要的国际金融中心。二者在国际金融中心建设中的定位和发展战略,具有鲜明的特色和深刻的借鉴性。     

Taxing Times in Indonesia: The Challenge of Restoring Competitiveness and the Search for Fiscal Space

Indonesia’s economic growth picked up slightly in mid-2016 but remains below the level demanded by government and popular aspirations. Despite a plethora of reforms intended to increase efficiency and productivity, some policies are perverse and longstanding problems of implementation remain. The share of manufacturing has declined, the real exchange rate has appreciated, exports have dwindled, and growth has been trending downwards. The banking sector is stable but inefficient, with wide net interest margins and numerous barriers to competition. Trade protection, particularly in basic food commodities, has created high costs that weigh particularly heavily on the poor. Declining government revenues have placed increasing pressure on the public budget, even as the current administration aims to increase spending on infrastructure and welfare and to enhance productivity. In an effort to increase revenues, the government has announced a tax amnesty program and other measures. In addition, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the new finance minister, has taken steps to cut non-essential expenditure in order to secure high spending on infrastructure and at the same time keep within the 3% budget deficit limit stipulated by law. Although the overall debt situation is not yet alarming, declining revenues and budget cuts that do not fully reflect this decline are putting pressure on increasing debt levels. The government’s high-profile tax amnesty program was the major policy initiative implemented in the second half of 2016 that aimed to relieve this pressure. Despite widespread criticism of, and scepticism about, the tax amnesty (both within and outside Indonesia), its first phase had a much higher participation rate than most independent accounts expected. Revenues raised so far through the amnesty are less than 60% of the official target, but this is actually a strong result for the short term. The bigger question, however, is whether the amnesty is a key element of a more encompassing strategy to overhaul the system of taxation and tax administration.     

Renminbi Exchange Rate: Peg to A Wide Band Currency Basket

Persistent renminbi (RMB) devaluation expectations are one of the greatest threats to China's macroeconomic stability. Market interventions backed by huge foreign exchange reserves and capital controls are not sufficient to eliminate the expectations of devaluation. Creating a market‐based and flexible RMB exchange rate regime holds the key to the elimination of devaluation expectations. The present paper compares the pros and cons of several policy options, and proposes to introduce, as a transition to free floating, a new exchange rate regime pegged to a currency basket with a wide band. The new regime should be able to give the RMB exchange rate enough flexibility to eliminate devaluation expectations as well as prevent excessive overshooting. To ensure a smooth transition, the new regime needs to be supported by controlling cross‐border capital flows.     

香港的社会救助:经验与启示

作为全球最自由、最活跃的经济体之一,香港一直坚持"低税制、低福利、高发展"的路线,立足其地情社情,建立了一套高度完善、具有香港特色的社会救助制度。香港的经验表明,社会救助乃是兜底安全网,是社会稳定的基石;建立社会救助要立足本地实际,坚持走地情社情路线;发展社会救助要量入为出、量力而行,遵循渐进主义原则。